So what price would fuel have to be for you to stop driving?
Discussion
varsas said:
It would please the greenies though, wouldn't it? I believe modern rises to the tax on cigarettes is more about persuading people to give up then actually increasing revenue. Same with the setting of a minimum price for alcohol, about changing peoples behavior, not raising revenue. I might be wrong (or naïve..)?
Yeah right. Its all about revenue mate, especially now as the Government tries to balance the books. A few years ago our Labour Government pretended taxing fuel and cigarettes was for 'environmental and public health reasons' but we knew even then it was all about the wonga. This Government doesn't even pretend anything otherwise, when asked why they cannot decrease fuel duty they bluntly say 'because we need the money.' When seizing shipments of illegal cigarettes, HMRC and the Government say they miss out on much needed revenue due to this. They're not even pretending its for anything other than raising money anymore. Let me put it this way, the politicians will say its about a change in behaviour, but if you asked them to give all fuel duty revenue to Charity they'd suddenly backtrack.
So, with our Government admitting fully its about raising money then it has to be acknowledged that if they price us out of buying these things entirely they'll lose revenue. The day they lose significant revenue because they've put the tax too high is when you'll really see it is entirely about revenue, because they'll decrease it. They'll happily weather a hippy storm to decrease it. Anyway, the only change of behaviour effected by reducing car use is more people join the Dole que, not really the sort of change i'd hope for.
varsas said:
You are also assuming oil will remain cheap. If oil suddenly costs 10 times as much (could happen if things get bad in the middle east or it just gets rare) the tax rate could stay the same or even go down hugely but the price we pay would still go up.
The middle east cannot afford to cut the West off from its oil supplies anyway, its how such countries make money. They need to sell it as much as we need to buy it, for years the likes of the Saudi's had a major interest in keeping oil prices down because it did a brilliant job of encouraging people to ignore investment in alternatives, these days they realise they can make a bit more than they expected but even they dont want it to be expensive enough to make alternatives worthwhile. After China and India are fully up and running its hard to see what other part of the World will radically change to effect a major increase in demand, unless Africa or the old Eastern Bloc are going to launch a revolution - highly unlikely. Too many people make too much money out of Oil for it to 'disappear' and theres plenty of it in the Earth and if its too expensive for us to buy then plenty of people out there who depend on selling it are out of a job so that cannot happen either.Like I said mate, its all about money, they need us to be able to afford it, they cant make their money otherwise.
Thing is, with fuel at its current price it still costs half as much as going anywhere by train. I walk or cycle on most bus-distance journeys as it is, I only really drive if I'm off for a hoon, on a long trip or have something big that needs carrying, like a Christmas tree or an office chair.
Point is, when I do drive, it's either still the cheapest way of getting wherever I'm going, or it can't be done with anything else.
I'm currently costing up a 125cc motorbike to take up some of the medium-length trips too. This works two ways. Firstly, it means that most local trips will be at 60-100mpg, secondly, it means that having a thirsty, unreliable, impractical car makes more sense. Sort of.
Point is, when I do drive, it's either still the cheapest way of getting wherever I'm going, or it can't be done with anything else.
I'm currently costing up a 125cc motorbike to take up some of the medium-length trips too. This works two ways. Firstly, it means that most local trips will be at 60-100mpg, secondly, it means that having a thirsty, unreliable, impractical car makes more sense. Sort of.
Twincam16 said:
I'm currently costing up a 125cc motorbike to take up some of the medium-length trips too. This works two ways. Firstly, it means that most local trips will be at 60-100mpg, secondly, it means that having a thirsty, unreliable, impractical car makes more sense. Sort of.
Actually ditching both and buying one economical, reliable, practical car to do both jobs would make the most sense.But dont let basic logic get in the way of a dream
martin84 said:
Twincam16 said:
I'm currently costing up a 125cc motorbike to take up some of the medium-length trips too. This works two ways. Firstly, it means that most local trips will be at 60-100mpg, secondly, it means that having a thirsty, unreliable, impractical car makes more sense. Sort of.
Actually ditching both and buying one economical, reliable, practical car to do both jobs would make the most sense.But dont let basic logic get in the way of a dream
That's the kind of logic my grandmother would use. And she has an automatic Micra.
The fact is of course the long term price of oil can only ever go one way as there is a finite amount of it. However, as the price goes up it becomes more viable to extract difficult supplies ie tar sands in Canada and Venezuela which between them could contain as much as all the world's conventional oil reserves. Combine this with the fact that the Saudis are always on a tightrope, they want to get the max possible price without causing a reduction in demand and as evidenced by their recent large shipments to America that price is now, so there are factors which will mitigate ongoing rises somewhat.
In terms of when it would stop me driving, the chap positing earlier in the thread reckoned he won't be driving in 18 years when he is 40, by that maths I am 2 years younger than him but if I can I will still be driving. In the very long term what will happen is there will be a workable replacement for personal transport because there is such a market for it, this will probably be in the form of hydrogen cars and actually there will probably be sporty versions since whatever the car is the body can still be styled and nice suspension/tyres used. Beyond this we will use our petrol cars at weekends and special occasions, if they get rid of petrol pumps it will be available from specialists I suppose delivered, and it won't matter what it costs if you do 1000 miles a year. It's not ideal but the truth of it is now we probably only really ENJOY driving about that many miles anyway, where we are really glad of the petrol engine. In the meantime the nearer future is not diesel it is Ford ecoboost, Fiat twinair etc etc and then a petrol engine acting as a generator with the car actually being driven by electric motors as this is much more efficient than the circa 30% of energy which is actually used as movement in current systems.
In terms of when it would stop me driving, the chap positing earlier in the thread reckoned he won't be driving in 18 years when he is 40, by that maths I am 2 years younger than him but if I can I will still be driving. In the very long term what will happen is there will be a workable replacement for personal transport because there is such a market for it, this will probably be in the form of hydrogen cars and actually there will probably be sporty versions since whatever the car is the body can still be styled and nice suspension/tyres used. Beyond this we will use our petrol cars at weekends and special occasions, if they get rid of petrol pumps it will be available from specialists I suppose delivered, and it won't matter what it costs if you do 1000 miles a year. It's not ideal but the truth of it is now we probably only really ENJOY driving about that many miles anyway, where we are really glad of the petrol engine. In the meantime the nearer future is not diesel it is Ford ecoboost, Fiat twinair etc etc and then a petrol engine acting as a generator with the car actually being driven by electric motors as this is much more efficient than the circa 30% of energy which is actually used as movement in current systems.
Twincam16 said:
This is Pistonheads. Why would I want to minimise all costs and get a little supermini/diesel repmobile when I can actually have a sports car, plus something cheaper than any car to run about on for everything else?
That's the kind of logic my grandmother would use. And she has an automatic Micra.
Hey i'm with you, lets not make out the logic to be more sound than it is though That's the kind of logic my grandmother would use. And she has an automatic Micra.
I quite fancy a big f
k off 4x4 and am trying to find appropriate man maths to justify such purchase.martin84 said:
varsas said:
It would please the greenies though, wouldn't it? I believe modern rises to the tax on cigarettes is more about persuading people to give up then actually increasing revenue. Same with the setting of a minimum price for alcohol, about changing peoples behavior, not raising revenue. I might be wrong (or naïve..)?
Yeah right. Its all about revenue mate, especially now as the Government tries to balance the books. A few years ago our Labour Government pretended taxing fuel and cigarettes was for 'environmental and public health reasons' but we knew even then it was all about the wonga. This Government doesn't even pretend anything otherwise, when asked why they cannot decrease fuel duty they bluntly say 'because we need the money.' When seizing shipments of illegal cigarettes, HMRC and the Government say they miss out on much needed revenue due to this. They're not even pretending its for anything other than raising money anymore. Let me put it this way, the politicians will say its about a change in behaviour, but if you asked them to give all fuel duty revenue to Charity they'd suddenly backtrack.
So, with our Government admitting fully its about raising money then it has to be acknowledged that if they price us out of buying these things entirely they'll lose revenue. The day they lose significant revenue because they've put the tax too high is when you'll really see it is entirely about revenue, because they'll decrease it. They'll happily weather a hippy storm to decrease it. Anyway, the only change of behaviour effected by reducing car use is more people join the Dole que, not really the sort of change i'd hope for.
varsas said:
You are also assuming oil will remain cheap. If oil suddenly costs 10 times as much (could happen if things get bad in the middle east or it just gets rare) the tax rate could stay the same or even go down hugely but the price we pay would still go up.
The middle east cannot afford to cut the West off from its oil supplies anyway, its how such countries make money. They need to sell it as much as we need to buy it, for years the likes of the Saudi's had a major interest in keeping oil prices down because it did a brilliant job of encouraging people to ignore investment in alternatives, these days they realise they can make a bit more than they expected but even they dont want it to be expensive enough to make alternatives worthwhile. After China and India are fully up and running its hard to see what other part of the World will radically change to effect a major increase in demand, unless Africa or the old Eastern Bloc are going to launch a revolution - highly unlikely. Too many people make too much money out of Oil for it to 'disappear' and theres plenty of it in the Earth and if its too expensive for us to buy then plenty of people out there who depend on selling it are out of a job so that cannot happen either.Like I said mate, its all about money, they need us to be able to afford it, they cant make their money otherwise.
Fair enough on the whole 'everyone needs oil' bit, I reckon on balance you are probably right. Hope so anyway. Can you imagine the chaos if the oil economy went away?
Assuming train prices don't rise (which they keep doing substantially), other car running costs don't change and my wages don't go up roughly £8/l is the price point where I'd break even vs the train.
The main reason its that high is because the train takes an extra 2 hours a day so I could spend that as overtime and still break even. I'd rather pay the extra however and have the time with my family.
The main reason its that high is because the train takes an extra 2 hours a day so I could spend that as overtime and still break even. I'd rather pay the extra however and have the time with my family.
varsas said:
At least the current goberment is being honest then!
Fair enough on the whole 'everyone needs oil' bit, I reckon on balance you are probably right. Hope so anyway. Can you imagine the chaos if the oil economy went away?
I appreciate honesty but I appreciate fuel duty cuts even more.Fair enough on the whole 'everyone needs oil' bit, I reckon on balance you are probably right. Hope so anyway. Can you imagine the chaos if the oil economy went away?
The day the oil economy ends is when the entire world ends and the price of getting to work becomes irrelevent because there is no work. Thats why its in everybodies interest (the public, governments, oil companies etc) to keep it affordable or make any alternative cost effective. Petrol will not hit £10 a litre any time soon because the UK's economy would shatter long long long before that. If its too expensive for growing nations to buy then the oil dependent middle east can't sell it, which is bad for them. High demand brings high prices but eventually high prices brings low demand.
Oil reserves which have never been cost effective to drill and extract will become cost effective if the oil producers can't supply enough to meet demand or if the price is too high they don't sell enough. We will still be driving in 50 years time, we might not neccessarily be using petrol but the same people who bring fuel to us now will have a finger in the pie of whatever we are using by then. Any alternative wont be cheap because it needs to fill the coffers of those who cannot sell petrol anymore. Its worth too much money to let it disappear before its absolutely unavoidable. If the oil economy goes not only have you got a ruthless middle eastern war fought by nuclear states with little to lose anymore, but the world economy mimics Zimbabwe. Too many people earn too much money out of the current status quo for that destiny to be realised in our lifetimes.
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