RE: All good things come to an end in 2035
Discussion
John.Taylor said:
I just don't see the step change from ICE to all electric happening in such a short time frame, and if it does it will cripple low earners.
I drive a 2005 Mini R53 which is worth next to nothing but gets me to work and back, to the shops, days out at the weekend, longer trips to see the family, on track days, etc. When it gives up the ghost I'll scrap it and buy something else old, cheap and fun - and I'm not the only one who does this, we can't all afford a shiny new PCP on the drive every 3 years.
When all-electric comes in what am I going to buy for £2k, a 15 year old Leaf with batteries that can't hold more than 50 miles charge?
There won't be enough 2020 leafs of them to go around in 2035, but you will be able to but an ICE car from 2020 for relative peanuts.I drive a 2005 Mini R53 which is worth next to nothing but gets me to work and back, to the shops, days out at the weekend, longer trips to see the family, on track days, etc. When it gives up the ghost I'll scrap it and buy something else old, cheap and fun - and I'm not the only one who does this, we can't all afford a shiny new PCP on the drive every 3 years.
When all-electric comes in what am I going to buy for £2k, a 15 year old Leaf with batteries that can't hold more than 50 miles charge?
The only way I can see this becoming a reality is if hydrogen comes online but sourcing it is a huge problem. I cant see batteries getting there, who knows though, I was wrong once
simonrockman said:
cuda said:
Are they going to ban fossil fueled aircraft too?
Didn't think so...
There was an airline spokesman on Radio 4 this morning saying that the enemy is carbon, not flying. Using non-carbon emitting fuels, such as hydrogen, is a perfectly acceptable solution.Didn't think so...
2035 is the final ban.
However, doubtless there will be tighter and tighter regulation between now and then. We are already seeing the demise of many performance engines and I have no doubt this will continue. I think the future is very grim indeed. Very glad I grew up in the era of freedom and excitement with ICE.
Of course there will be existing cars, but they will grow more and more impractical...old electronics, failing airbags, part shortages and so on. There will be collectors of course, but for most people it is a forced march to the electric chariot.
However, doubtless there will be tighter and tighter regulation between now and then. We are already seeing the demise of many performance engines and I have no doubt this will continue. I think the future is very grim indeed. Very glad I grew up in the era of freedom and excitement with ICE.
Of course there will be existing cars, but they will grow more and more impractical...old electronics, failing airbags, part shortages and so on. There will be collectors of course, but for most people it is a forced march to the electric chariot.
RenesisEvo said:
21.6 from road, 2 from air - so where does the other 76.4% come from? Should we not be focusing on that, considering it's 3x the problem? For years it's seemed like reducing carbon has been treated like Pareto's principle in reverse - going after the 20%, not the 80%. I don't see such drastic legislation being proposed for shipping, power generation or other industries (I've not looked either, mind - conscious there's a gap between what the media make us aware of, and reality).
Agriculture, Energy Production and Fashion industries are huge contributors and likely make up a big part of that number. There is obviously a lot being done with renewable energy but I'm not sure what the fashion and agriculture industries are doing.Edinburger said:
Unpopular view perhaps, but I think this is a good approach. Remember you can still buy petrol, diesel and hybrid cars up until then and run them thereafter.
However, we need massive investment in infrastructure from now. Petrol stations need to have fast chargers. Local charging facilities need to increase massively and we need to harness wireless charging from roads or lampposts or whatever for people without driveways.
We also need manufacturers to get the finger out and start selling quality electric cars at realistic prices.
Bring it on, I say.
Pretty much my sentiments - if this kick-starts work towards widely available, standardised infrastructure for EVs then great, hopefully it'll mean they'll work for me all the sooner. It's bizarre to see that Harry Metcalfe piece being used in support of the continuation of ICE vehicles too - the argument seems to be that it's fine because if we all hardly use our petrol and diesel vehicles then there wouldn't be much pollution. However, we need massive investment in infrastructure from now. Petrol stations need to have fast chargers. Local charging facilities need to increase massively and we need to harness wireless charging from roads or lampposts or whatever for people without driveways.
We also need manufacturers to get the finger out and start selling quality electric cars at realistic prices.
Bring it on, I say.
Turbobanana said:
Get over it: this was inevitable.
Besides, it's a ban on the SALE OF NEW ICE vehicles, not their use. So unless you're hung up (as many are)on having a new car, this probably won't matter to many until, what, 2040? Maybe 2050 if you're familiar with running older cars? Unless I've missed something and the sale of fossil fuel will also be banned, instantly rendering useless millions of existing vehicles and robbing the Government of much-needed tax revenue.
With new car registrations anywhere between c. 2 million and 2.75 million each year for the last 16 years, quite a lot of people will be "affected" by it. They can still buy new cars of course, but not ICE ones. They will either have to buy new EVs or second hand petrol and diesel cars. Besides, it's a ban on the SALE OF NEW ICE vehicles, not their use. So unless you're hung up (as many are)on having a new car, this probably won't matter to many until, what, 2040? Maybe 2050 if you're familiar with running older cars? Unless I've missed something and the sale of fossil fuel will also be banned, instantly rendering useless millions of existing vehicles and robbing the Government of much-needed tax revenue.
As someone else has pointed out though, what is the market for fuel going to be like, say, in 2040 or 2045? Oil companies may still need to make diesel for vans and HGVs unless by then electric vans and HGVs have been made technically and commercially viable. But what about petrol for the ageing and reducing numbers of petrol cars? Will oil companies even bother to make petrol for cars after a while?
Therefore, I am readjusting my plan. Instead of waiting another decade or so to buy the most outrageous fossil fuelled sports car available at the time, I will look to buy one in the near future. If only Mr Porsche would make a few more GT4s...
History teaches us that governments change tact every few decades. Remember when petrol cars were deemed worse than diesels on Co2 grounds, and so diesels became popular... only to then be deemed murderers on Planet Earth on nitrogen dioxide grounds. BEV's are seen as the future at present, but little is said about how the resources are gathered (such as cobalt mining, which I thought was a non-renewable resource), and the inconvenient truth is that the national grid in its current guise simply cannot cope with the UK switching to electric from fossil fuels. At the end of a battery's useful life, it's now a horrible, toxic lump that gets buried in the ground - not quite the image portrayed when a BEV is sold to the consumer as the "answer to the climate change problem" - I believe Tesla or someone else had an improved method for handling old batteries, I cannot remember the details though.
What comes next; it's all grim, and a worst case scenario, but the climate change overlords are free to attack car firms and motorists as they're a soft target:
I appreciate that a big change is needed, and the end goal is very noble, but I don't believe it's feasible at the current rate of change, and there's not a great deal of information available as to how the transport network wont be detrimentally affected when everything it needs, wont exist or be available in adequate time.
What comes next; it's all grim, and a worst case scenario, but the climate change overlords are free to attack car firms and motorists as they're a soft target:
- Motor sport - outside of perhaps FIA sanctioned racing, expect to be given a hard time from hard line environmentalists who believe enjoying ICE cars on circuit at weekends, for pleasure, is some sort of manslaughter of the planet. I already get lectures from climate warriors about how my race car will murder the planet, despite it not producing Co2 and travelling a whopping 10-15 miles per year, and travelling a whopping 2 miles on a trailer.
- High performance / exotic cars on the road post 2035 - Max Max springs to mind, bar the feral dogs, mullets etc... getting petrol might become more challenging if fuel stations realise that their business model is better tailored toward EV charging than fossil fuels. The car shaming will only get worse, even if you're covering minimal mileage per annum.
- The haulage industry - probably the worst polluters on UK roads, but at this moment in time, how else can you transport 40 tonnes of goods around the country. I expected hybrids to be allowed as that'd give the likes of Scania, Volvo, Renault etc a fighting chance of offering tractor units that can still do the job and achieve just-in-time deliveries.
I appreciate that a big change is needed, and the end goal is very noble, but I don't believe it's feasible at the current rate of change, and there's not a great deal of information available as to how the transport network wont be detrimentally affected when everything it needs, wont exist or be available in adequate time.
Edinburger said:
Bring it on, I say.
Weirdly, I kind of agree. Cars at the moment are getting bigger and bigger, easier and easier to drive fast, its all feeling a bit stagnant. Theres literally millions of cars out there that arent going to disappear, I'll be interested to see how all this pans outCompletely dumb move on the governments behalf.
I have no issue with EV's at all but this just seems like they have not thought this through at all.
So if we take our motorway system and many many service stations are they going to provide charging in every single bay but multiply the amount of bays many times over for all of those who have to be sat for an hour to charge up? I know speeds will increase but it will still take much longer than IC refuelling. Who will be supplying the 100's of charging bays per station and the land to do so. It will be mayhem!
The amount of investment to bring the infrastructure would be billions of £'s and would probably make HS2/3 look cheap by comparison.
A much more gradual approach is (as is happening now) required and ALL manufacturers need much more time to develop.
I have no issue with EV's at all but this just seems like they have not thought this through at all.
So if we take our motorway system and many many service stations are they going to provide charging in every single bay but multiply the amount of bays many times over for all of those who have to be sat for an hour to charge up? I know speeds will increase but it will still take much longer than IC refuelling. Who will be supplying the 100's of charging bays per station and the land to do so. It will be mayhem!
The amount of investment to bring the infrastructure would be billions of £'s and would probably make HS2/3 look cheap by comparison.
A much more gradual approach is (as is happening now) required and ALL manufacturers need much more time to develop.
rbozza said:
By the time this kicks in self driving cars will be the norm and many people won’t know how (or care) to drive a car. Or in fact own a car.
Driving a car will become like riding a horse, a once essential form of transport that will become purely a hobby for enthusiasts.
Get your head around it people, that be the future!
I can't wait. I really believe that there will be an even clearer dichotomy between driving on the public road for mobility and driving on the track for fun. For me the former should be safe, clean and silent while the latter should grow and therefore becomes cheaper. Let's say that we eventually get electric track cars that means no noise restrictions for Brands Hatch GP loop for instance and most circuits safeguarded and new ones opening. They may dedicat some days to ICE which could even be stored and maintained on site. Arrive and drive style. Driving a car will become like riding a horse, a once essential form of transport that will become purely a hobby for enthusiasts.
Get your head around it people, that be the future!
Surely if the Government were serious about reducing CO2 emissions then they could ban the overweight, unnecessarily high CO2 producing SUV's overnight with zero impact on people's ability to get around? The only exceptions would be if you can prove you need an SUV for work (e.g. you are a farmer), or you live in a very remote area with a rutted dirt track leading to your front door.
John.Taylor said:
I just don't see the step change from ICE to all electric happening in such a short time frame, and if it does it will cripple low earners.
I drive a 2005 Mini R53 which is worth next to nothing but gets me to work and back, to the shops, days out at the weekend, longer trips to see the family, on track days, etc. When it gives up the ghost I'll scrap it and buy something else old, cheap and fun - and I'm not the only one who does this, we can't all afford a shiny new PCP on the drive every 3 years.
When all-electric comes in what am I going to buy for £2k, a 15 year old Leaf with batteries that can't hold more than 50 miles charge?
I think driving in the future will be less democratic than today and there will be little opportunity for lower earners to drive something cheaply. I assuming this demand would be taken up by some more on-demand services (ride sharing, taxi, hourly rental, subscription service, etc.)I drive a 2005 Mini R53 which is worth next to nothing but gets me to work and back, to the shops, days out at the weekend, longer trips to see the family, on track days, etc. When it gives up the ghost I'll scrap it and buy something else old, cheap and fun - and I'm not the only one who does this, we can't all afford a shiny new PCP on the drive every 3 years.
When all-electric comes in what am I going to buy for £2k, a 15 year old Leaf with batteries that can't hold more than 50 miles charge?
Andy20vt said:
Surely if the Government were serious about reducing CO2 emissions then they could ban the overweight, unnecessarily high CO2 producing SUV's overnight with zero impact on people's ability to get around? The only exceptions would be if you can prove you need an SUV for work (e.g. you are a farmer), or you live in a very remote area with a rutted dirt track leading to your front door.
Oh god. Here we go again...The real impact of this will be a lot earlier than 2035. Dealers find it hard enough to shift the older version when the new model comes out, so how are they going to sell cars built with “old” technology that are about to become redundant. And with no idea on residuals. I am told 85% of cars are sold on PCP, so no manufacturer will take a punt on residuals 4 years ahead of a block. Or provide a warranty when the engine is no longer being made. It will be 2030 latest and if you assume a run out period of a few years this will happen a whole lot earlier. Very shortly in fact. combine that with the cost of EVs, lack of infrastructure and price and supply of electricity, this ain’t looking too good. Glad I’ve still got my V8.....
On the topic of electric cars, there are many 'ifs' and 'whens' that the government expects to happen to make this future a reality. One of those seems to be vehicle to grid. I was thinking of this just this morning when I was having to manually submit my meter readings as my smart meters have stopped working after just nine months! Anyway, I'm not expecting to wake up to a freshly charged car every weekday morning if we can't even get a meter to send a packet of data reliably to a cell phone tower. It's sure going to be interesting watching this future unfold...
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