RE: All good things come to an end in 2035
Discussion
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.
There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history. There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
rick.e said:
The vast majority of hydrogen, and the cheapest, is made by steam reformation of methane, during which the CO2 componet is released. So it would actually be more efficient just to burn the methane in the engine, saving the energy of reformation. But that doesn't solve the CO2 problem. As you say, producing hydrogen by whatever means, only to burn it in an ICE, would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
Indeed. The only sane assumption would be that plans to use hydrogen would be based on renewably produced hydrogen rather than from fossil fuels, but then sanity... otolith said:
rick.e said:
The vast majority of hydrogen, and the cheapest, is made by steam reformation of methane, during which the CO2 componet is released. So it would actually be more efficient just to burn the methane in the engine, saving the energy of reformation. But that doesn't solve the CO2 problem. As you say, producing hydrogen by whatever means, only to burn it in an ICE, would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
Indeed. The only sane assumption would be that plans to use hydrogen would be based on renewably produced hydrogen rather than from fossil fuels, but then sanity... 321boost said:
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.
There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history. There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Portrait said:
Are they going to give everyone a drive to charge their car or am I just going to be tripping over cables for the rest of time.
Do they give everyone a petrol pump nowadays? I don't understand all this wailing about the end of the ICE. If it's because it makes a nice noise then... good riddance. Eventually that obsession will die out and most people will focus on performance and handling.
SidewaysSi said:
321boost said:
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.
There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history. There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Also as far as I am aware there is no legislation for this 2035 ban and there wasn’t any for the 2040 one?
My biggest annoyance is the use of a 'banning' hammer to crack a nut. In 15 years, technology will have moved on massively. Possibly Internal Combustion Engines could have become 'acceptably' clean, but due to an impending ban, all of the focus will move to the next most available technology which is EV. This may not be the best solution - certainly infrastructure and battery technology will need to improve dramatically if we will still be able to use our cars in the way we do today. I am involved in the battery industry so I know that at the moment, the potential increase in demand will create significant real World problems (of course that won't stop commercial giants like Tesla, milking every Dollar). I feel that investment in Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles may improve efficiency of the production of Hydrogen and of the Fuel Cells providing a sustainable answer but I think the electric vehicle 'ball' is already rolling.
The sad truth (speaking as a petrolhead and the owner of a 350BHP petrol sports car) is I think the most likely scenario will be smaller, less powerful cars, probably electrically driven and possibly with on-board solar panels. Even worse they will probably be Autonomous. The good news (sort of) is; I will be too old (or too dead) to worry!
The sad truth (speaking as a petrolhead and the owner of a 350BHP petrol sports car) is I think the most likely scenario will be smaller, less powerful cars, probably electrically driven and possibly with on-board solar panels. Even worse they will probably be Autonomous. The good news (sort of) is; I will be too old (or too dead) to worry!
321boost said:
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.
There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history. There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Every aspect of Brexit. 350m a week to the NHS, leaving on the 31st October, trade deals will flood in, take your pick
CS Garth said:
321boost said:
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.
There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history. There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Every aspect of Brexit. 350m a week to the NHS, leaving on the 31st October, trade deals will flood in, take your pick
TheOrangePeril said:
...
Seeing how enthusiasts are typically allowed to keep using their (our) 30/50/100 year old vehicles at present, I can't see it greatly affecting the truly passionate motorists. We're not really the problem... This is about changing the daily transport of millions of people who couldn't give half a rat's fig blossom whether they're driving a quieter, faster, more reliable electric car, or a more rewarding, charismatic, and idiosyncratic IC-engined car.
There's no reason to be producing more IC vehicles for the enthusiast, we have plenty to enjoy as it is. There's certainly no good reason to be producing IC vehicles for the vast majority of people that just want to get from A to B and don't even care how many pedals their car has.
I hope you're right. Rationally you make complete sense but then very few of our politicians seem to exhibit much calm or rational thinking. I fear those of us who will want to continue to sparingly enjoy classic ICE cars will be the baby that gets thrown out with the bathwater... It will be a sad day when we have to retrofit our fun cars with EV drivetrains to use them on the road but I guess 90's cars with 1000bhp will have their own appeal.Seeing how enthusiasts are typically allowed to keep using their (our) 30/50/100 year old vehicles at present, I can't see it greatly affecting the truly passionate motorists. We're not really the problem... This is about changing the daily transport of millions of people who couldn't give half a rat's fig blossom whether they're driving a quieter, faster, more reliable electric car, or a more rewarding, charismatic, and idiosyncratic IC-engined car.
There's no reason to be producing more IC vehicles for the enthusiast, we have plenty to enjoy as it is. There's certainly no good reason to be producing IC vehicles for the vast majority of people that just want to get from A to B and don't even care how many pedals their car has.
I dont think IC technology is going to make them any cleaner than they are, which is pretty good for modern ones.
Even if they made the exhaust like fresh air, the IC engine is still hampered by its poor efficiency compared to an electric motor.
Good point about being dead, all of us petrolheads going on about "Well I will never drive and EV" or "I will do a burnout on Greta Thunbergs lawn in my massive V8", well it wont matter as we will all pop off and be replaced by younger versions of ourselves, most of which wont be afflicted with a love of engine noises and smell of burnt hydrocarbons.
Some will, but many more wont, most of my late forties peers arent all that fussed, its a nice to have a fast car, people have kids, holidays, houses, other hobbies and whatever to occupy them, they need transport so whatever does the job cost effectively that looks smart and is safe.
ICE cars will still be around but more as a hobby but the bulk of cars I believe, will end up electric, powered by the energy we get from the Sun on a daily basis, rather than the energy from the sun we dredge up from millions of years ago and burn to release it.
100 years from now, there will be stuff in museums showing cars burning petrol and diesel and people thinking how unpleasant and old fashioned that seems.
Even if they made the exhaust like fresh air, the IC engine is still hampered by its poor efficiency compared to an electric motor.
Good point about being dead, all of us petrolheads going on about "Well I will never drive and EV" or "I will do a burnout on Greta Thunbergs lawn in my massive V8", well it wont matter as we will all pop off and be replaced by younger versions of ourselves, most of which wont be afflicted with a love of engine noises and smell of burnt hydrocarbons.
Some will, but many more wont, most of my late forties peers arent all that fussed, its a nice to have a fast car, people have kids, holidays, houses, other hobbies and whatever to occupy them, they need transport so whatever does the job cost effectively that looks smart and is safe.
ICE cars will still be around but more as a hobby but the bulk of cars I believe, will end up electric, powered by the energy we get from the Sun on a daily basis, rather than the energy from the sun we dredge up from millions of years ago and burn to release it.
100 years from now, there will be stuff in museums showing cars burning petrol and diesel and people thinking how unpleasant and old fashioned that seems.
321boost said:
Yeah but those things have either not had 15 years to happen yet or they weren’t exactly announced with this kind of enthusiasm. Do you understand what I’m trying to say?
Not 100%. You seem to be saying that because this has been announced with zeal it will happen. The poster above is merely recognising the real politik of the situation which is that announcements aren’t certainties. monty quick said:
My biggest annoyance is the use of a 'banning' hammer to crack a nut. In 15 years, technology will have moved on massively. Possibly Internal Combustion Engines could have become 'acceptably' clean, but due to an impending ban, all of the focus will move to the next most available technology which is EV.
How do you see engines which when working as cleanly as physically possible turn hydrocarbons and oxygen into carbon dioxide and water becoming acceptable clean, when the problem is the carbon dioxide? The only options really are - run them on hydrocarbons which are not fossil fuels, for example bioethanol or biodiesel - or run them on something which is not a hydrocarbon. The only vaguely acceptable "not a hydrocarbon" option is hydrogen. Making and compressing hydrogen is very wasteful, then burning it in an ICE is moronically wasteful, so that's not going to happen. Biofuels were the great white hope 20 years ago, but they haven't come to fruition and probably never will. That strategy has been attempted and failed. Combustion engines are a dead end.
monty quick said:
This may not be the best solution - certainly infrastructure and battery technology will need to improve dramatically if we will still be able to use our cars in the way we do today. I am involved in the battery industry so I know that at the moment, the potential increase in demand will create significant real World problems (of course that won't stop commercial giants like Tesla, milking every Dollar). I feel that investment in Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles may improve efficiency of the production of Hydrogen and of the Fuel Cells providing a sustainable answer but I think the electric vehicle 'ball' is already rolling.
I really don't get the attraction of HFCs. It's not the answer, but people desperately, desperately want it to be. It's horribly inefficient because of fundamental physics. There is a bit of room for incremental improvement, but there is room for incremental improvement in battery tech and production battery tech is already more efficient that it's theoretically possible for hydrogen fuel cells to be."I hate battery electric cars, I want the answer to be hydrogen electric cars which are slower and more expensive to run than battery electric cars because I love garage forecourts"?
Is it really that people want the answer to be something, anything, that isn't here yet, so that they can justify continuing to use ICE? It is, isn't it?
My 2 sons at 7&4 probably won’t ever drive a normal petrol powered car on the road,
Although it might open up more on experiences on tracks,
10 yrs from now abs the infrastructure will be in place and similar outlook to buying a diesel now you won’t entertain buying a car with a proper engine as it won’t be worth anything, personally I’m not too fussed
Although it might open up more on experiences on tracks,
10 yrs from now abs the infrastructure will be in place and similar outlook to buying a diesel now you won’t entertain buying a car with a proper engine as it won’t be worth anything, personally I’m not too fussed
ghost83 said:
My 2 sons at 7&4 probably won’t ever drive a normal petrol powered car on the road,
Although it might open up more on experiences on tracks,
10 yrs from now abs the infrastructure will be in place and similar outlook to buying a diesel now you won’t entertain buying a car with a proper engine as it won’t be worth anything, personally I’m not too fussed
The outlook to buying diesel has not changed that much. I know people who are still buying non compliant diesel cars even though they’re aware of Clean air zones. They just don’t care and won’t go into cities. I’m glad and happy to see this. Although it might open up more on experiences on tracks,
10 yrs from now abs the infrastructure will be in place and similar outlook to buying a diesel now you won’t entertain buying a car with a proper engine as it won’t be worth anything, personally I’m not too fussed
CS Garth said:
321boost said:
Yeah but those things have either not had 15 years to happen yet or they weren’t exactly announced with this kind of enthusiasm. Do you understand what I’m trying to say?
Not 100%. You seem to be saying that because this has been announced with zeal it will happen. The poster above is merely recognising the real politik of the situation which is that announcements aren’t certainties. otolith said:
monty quick said:
My biggest annoyance is the use of a 'banning' hammer to crack a nut. In 15 years, technology will have moved on massively. Possibly Internal Combustion Engines could have become 'acceptably' clean, but due to an impending ban, all of the focus will move to the next most available technology which is EV.
How do you see engines which when working as cleanly as physically possible turn hydrocarbons and oxygen into carbon dioxide and water becoming acceptable clean, when the problem is the carbon dioxide? The only options really are - run them on hydrocarbons which are not fossil fuels, for example bioethanol or biodiesel - or run them on something which is not a hydrocarbon. The only vaguely acceptable "not a hydrocarbon" option is hydrogen. Making and compressing hydrogen is very wasteful, then burning it in an ICE is moronically wasteful, so that's not going to happen. Biofuels were the great white hope 20 years ago, but they haven't come to fruition and probably never will. That strategy has been attempted and failed. Combustion engines are a dead end.
monty quick said:
This may not be the best solution - certainly infrastructure and battery technology will need to improve dramatically if we will still be able to use our cars in the way we do today. I am involved in the battery industry so I know that at the moment, the potential increase in demand will create significant real World problems (of course that won't stop commercial giants like Tesla, milking every Dollar). I feel that investment in Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles may improve efficiency of the production of Hydrogen and of the Fuel Cells providing a sustainable answer but I think the electric vehicle 'ball' is already rolling.
I really don't get the attraction of HFCs. It's not the answer, but people desperately, desperately want it to be. It's horribly inefficient because of fundamental physics. There is a bit of room for incremental improvement, but there is room for incremental improvement in battery tech and production battery tech is already more efficient that it's theoretically possible for hydrogen fuel cells to be."I hate battery electric cars, I want the answer to be hydrogen electric cars which are slower and more expensive to run than battery electric cars because I love garage forecourts"?
Is it really that people want the answer to be something, anything, that isn't here yet, so that they can justify continuing to use ICE? It is, isn't it?
RadQuinn said:
There are still plenty of cars that will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells and act almost exactly the same as current petrol powered cars. Don't see this as a huge issue, especially with the rate at which technology increases.
Eh? You mean apart from not having any gears, and being nearly silent, and having max torque from standstill. You do understand don't you that a Hydrogen fuel cell is essentialy just a battery, and that a fuel cell car is an electric car where the electricity comes from the fuel cell? In other words, a hydrogen fuel cell car will act almost exactly the same as current battery powered cars!And as the hydrogen cycle is currently, and for the forseeable future, considerably less efficient than a battery cycle, I'd be interested to know where these "plenty of cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells" are going to come from.
Edited by rick.e on Wednesday 5th February 17:00
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