RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

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Discussion

Dickie-D

35 posts

24 months

Thursday 6th February
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Andy20vt said:
Surely if the Government were serious about reducing CO2 emissions then they could ban the overweight, unnecessarily high CO2 producing SUV's overnight with zero impact on people's ability to get around? The only exceptions would be if you can prove you need an SUV for work (e.g. you are a farmer), or you live in a very remote area with a rutted dirt track leading to your front door.
What a good idea! Then my wife would be able to shut her cake-hole about wanting us to get a "raised" vehicle, for London. The shut cake-hole would additionally save a few kg of CO2 emissions per year.

dan98

285 posts

68 months

Thursday 6th February
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Sooner or later EVs will hugely outnumber those with an ICE.
City streets will seem much quieter and cleaner smelling - you'll be able to hear and smell an ICE 'classic' coming from streets away.

I can imagine owners being vilified as antisocial and selfish for running such unpleasant and pointless dinosaurs around.
If they're not taxed into oblivion, the fuel will be..making those running them an even tinier and more obsessive minority.
Welcome to the future : )

jamoor

12,089 posts

170 months

Thursday 6th February
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dan98 said:
Sooner or later EVs will hugely outnumber those with an ICE.
City streets will seem much quieter and cleaner smelling - you'll be able to hear and smell an ICE 'classic' coming from streets away.

I can imagine owners being vilified as antisocial and selfish for running such unpleasant and pointless dinosaurs around.
If they're not taxed into oblivion, the fuel will be..making those running them an even tinier and more obsessive minority.
Welcome to the future : )
The owners will be a minority that the pollution won’t be a problem so it won’t be taxed imo.

Wooda80

1,718 posts

30 months

Thursday 6th February
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Andy20vt said:
Surely if the Government were serious about reducing CO2 emissions then they could ban the overweight, unnecessarily high CO2 producing SUV's overnight with zero impact on people's ability to get around? The only exceptions would be if you can prove you need an SUV for work (e.g. you are a farmer), or you live in a very remote area with a rutted dirt track leading to your front door.
You mean overweight, unneccessarily high CO2 producing, 300bhp, 2 tonne monsters like this?
https://www.nextgreencar.com/view-car/67757/bmw-x5...
(159 grams )

Compared to lithe, agile, lightweight, frugal, enthusiasts' cars like this
https://www.nextgreencar.com/view-car/57960/lotus-...
(174 grams )

(You'll note I used an old school diesel rather than the latest hybrid X5)





uncleluck

412 posts

6 months

Thursday 6th February
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With battery packs gradually dying from day one of purchasing your new EV, you want to be out of them well before any notable degradation sets in.

I’d imagine something like a 5-10 year old Taycan is going to be a tricky sale. Can you see a scenario where people are going to want to buy used EV’s over 5 years old when battery packs could be £10k plus? I’d imagine (knowing porsche parts) their pack would even be more than that? Would people be buying even new panameras today if it was a given the engine would weaken over the coming years and in 5-10 you’d need a whole new engine?

It’d be a bit like buying a 5-10 yr old M5 today knowing the engine needs replacing. What would that do to the value of the car?


One thing that’d drive me mad with cars like the tesla is the performance drop in relation to battery level. I watch drag times chap on YT and he’s super detailed on the performance but they have to be topped off with charge and when they’re below xx% the performance tails off etc.

When I heard porsche don’t suffer the same annoying performance drop I thought that’s the way forward. Then drag times tested a Taycan turbo s with below 50% battery & it was down on performance, in some areas slower than the normal Taycan turbo he tested after (which had a full battery yet should be slower)! Conclusion was even the porsche has this same issue.


Wooda80

1,718 posts

30 months

Thursday 6th February
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The thing with classic cars is that they don't have any divine right to exist.

Exotic cars aside, everything that is currently regarded with affection as a classic was once just an old banger. There is nothing objectively worthy about an MGB or a RWD Escort or Cortina. In fact when they were current they were some of the worst cars available to buy.

But what they undeniably possess is great deal of affection and nostalgia in the hearts of many people. They were the cars that we grew up with and have fond memories of driving or riding in. Or perhaps we wanted one but never quite got around to it. And now we are a bit older and have a bit of spare cash we can relive those days and the rose tinted specs obscure the warts.

But if we are to fantasise about popular ICE classics in an EV world then that relies on today's teens and 20somethings having nostalgic feelings about cars that were built in the last 20 years. The R53 Mini or the Corsa Ltd Edition that they had as a first car, or dad's A6 S-line that they all piled into for holidays every year, or a Nissan Leaf in a Nokia 3310 this-is how-it-all-started kind of way.

Do you think that will happen? Or will ICE cars be regarded as steam railway engines are now?

Wooda80

1,718 posts

30 months

Thursday 6th February
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uncleluck said:
Would people be buying even new panameras today if it was a given the engine would weaken over the coming years and in 5-10 you’d need a whole new engine?
Q Would people buy new ICE Porsches if it became known that they might suffer from premature engine failure?

A History tells us that yes, they would. Very much so!

warch

2,152 posts

109 months

Thursday 6th February
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dan98 said:
Sooner or later EVs will hugely outnumber those with an ICE.
City streets will seem much quieter and cleaner smelling - you'll be able to hear and smell an ICE 'classic' coming from streets away.

I can imagine owners being vilified as antisocial and selfish for running such unpleasant and pointless dinosaurs around.
If they're not taxed into oblivion, the fuel will be..making those running them an even tinier and more obsessive minority.
Welcome to the future : )
What, like people who run steam engines, classic cars, lorries and old locomotives are at the moment? These, especially the latter are enormously popular with the general public.

The problem is petrol and diesel cars is not ownership it's usage. My 60s Land Rover is terrific for the environment. It barely turns a wheel from year to year (I doubt it did 500miles in the last twelve months). In fifty five odd years it's had perhaps four sets of tyres. I drive it purely for fun these days, although it was my daily driver once.

My current daily driver is an old shape Nissan Qashqai. It is pure white goods, does what is required of it without costing much in fuel, but is pretty anodyne (unless you're a PHer obviously). It could easily be replaced by an electric or hybrid car. It's simply a means of getting about.


Water Fairy

3,180 posts

110 months

Thursday 6th February
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321boost said:
CS Garth said:
321boost said:
Robocop2 said:
Understanding the minds of politicians helps give a more balanced view of this unexpected government announcement. My experience over many years of dealing with local M.P’s and councillors, and attendance at countless committee meetings (I was in local government), showed me how most are preoccupied with two things: staying in power and making promises or proposing policies they think will have popular appeal to the voters. Tribal allegiance prevents a minority from speaking out against party policy, so hastily thought out proposals often emerge that later require revision, or rejection, in the light of wider consultation with those parties responsible for real-world implementation. Allied to the need for newly elected politicians to “make their mark”, I’m not at all surprised with the plan to stop the sale of all ICE cars in just 15 years.

There is an inevitability to the gradual demise of ICE cars but, as so many have already said, these proposals are likely to require substantial amendment in the coming years. Politicians are adept at quietly changing their policies without ever accepting they could possibly have ever been hasty and woefully misguided at the start. Forgive my cynicism, but at my age (an ancient 60 something who loves cars and driving as much as ever) I wouldn’t panic that everything is going to turn out quite as simply as Boris would have us believe.
Can you give us some examples of ambitious promises such as this that were made by govt officials only to be later dismissed or brushed under the carpet? It would help to look at some history.
Have you been living in a cave for 3 years?!

Every aspect of Brexit. 350m a week to the NHS, leaving on the 31st October, trade deals will flood in, take your pick
Yeah but those things have either not had 15 years to happen yet or they weren’t exactly announced with this kind of enthusiasm. Do you understand what I’m trying to say?
HS2

MartinGLeeds

62 posts

93 months

Thursday 6th February
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FourWheelDrift said:
RDMcG said:
2035 is the final ban.

However, doubtless there will be tighter and tighter regulation between now and then. We are already seeing the demise of many performance engines and I have no doubt this will continue. I think the future is very grim indeed. Very glad I grew up in the era of freedom and excitement with ICE.

Of course there will be existing cars, but they will grow more and more impractical...old electronics, failing airbags, part shortages and so on. There will be collectors of course, but for most people it is a forced march to the electric chariot.
Just like the internet porn ban, when they find it's not possible it will be extended, extended again and then dropped.
Fine observation & I for one agree.

It sounds ace the idea, keep repeating it over and over make everybody think you’re so cool and thoughtful and hope the people who know it simply can’t be done, shut the fk up we, are creating illusions. Then....................like the Porn Ban decide it’s not that bad after all and just carry on W a n k i n g & everybody can carry on drive the cars we love.

uncleluck

412 posts

6 months

Thursday 6th February
quotequote all
Wooda80 said:
Q Would people buy new ICE Porsches if it became known that they might suffer from premature engine failure?

A History tells us that yes, they would. Very much so!
It’s not really an ‘if’ with an EV, it’s a given it’ll need a battery pack after x years regardless of how you treat it.

You could have a new ICE and care like crazy for it, low mileage and it could go on for decades & the chance of the engine needing replacing is very slim with the right car.

With the EV it’s a given the most expensive part will need changing at a relatively young age for the vehicle.

My own 3 cars are 17/18/20 years old, on their original engines. I just can’t imagine buying into the 10+ yr old EV. It kills someone like me from the game who would get into the older performance car for the lower cost and does his own maintenance. I can foresee a huge discrepancy between a new performance EV and a 5-10 year old one. Far worse depreciation than IC.


marky911

3,836 posts

174 months

Thursday 6th February
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Dog Star said:
There's some really vehement and irrational anti-ev stuff on here - I think a lot of this is this sheep-like PH "V8 weekend toy" adenoidal fantasist nonsense.

The piston engine is an anachronism - it really shouldn't exist any more. If we were starting with a blank slate right now and designing cars for the first time do you really think they'd have IC piston engines? I really doubt it.

I love my cars and bikes but the whole electric thing makes more sense. The day they get 300 mile range and 5 minutes recharge time to 80% I reckon they've nailed it.
See, I find it’s the “pro EV” guys who are going on like a dog with a bone.
I’ll say it again for clarification, I’m not against EVs and was looking into them just a few weeks ago for my wife.

The main point for me is that yes for commuting I don’t care what I drive and would be happy with electric and eventually Autonomous.
My hobby and passion is cars though (although I appear to be massively in a minority on here even though it used to be a petrol heads forum) and I spend my time and money enjoying them.

A guy earlier got berated for mentioning soul. Soul is maybe not the right term but surely most car guys rate excitement and character highly and a huge part of that for most is a manual gearbox and good petrol engine.
An EV will never have that.

So I’m happy to move with times as long as petrol cars for car guys are still useable and accessible.

I’m guessing the guys on here saying “Bring it on” and “Tough titties” to the ICE fans, have either wandered into here from elsewhere or simply don’t like cars anyway.
That’s all well and good but tell us what your passions are and then tell us how you’d feel if they were outlawed.

As Mr JWW said in his podcast the other day (before this announcement). Commuting is just something we have to do and get through. EV or autonomous is fine for that, but real driving is about fun and passion.
So again, I’m happy to drive whatever on my boring commute, but if I’m heading to the Alps or Scotland I want a screaming flat6 behind me.



Edited by marky911 on Thursday 6th February 22:05

Mr Tidy

11,388 posts

82 months

Thursday 6th February
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marky911 said:
As Mr JWW said in his podcast the other day (before this announcement). Commuting is just something we have to do and get through. EV or autonomous is fine for that, but real driving is about fun and passion.
So again, I’m happy to drive whatever on my boring commute, but if I’m heading to the Alps or Scotland I want a screaming flat6 behind me.

Edited by marky911 on Thursday 6th February 22:05
Nicely put. thumbup

But I no longer do a boring commute and could only charge an EV by throwing a cable over my garden fence, that would inevitably be unplugged by some scrote one day!

Thankfully at my age I don't think 2035 will be an issue for me, but in the meantime I'm happy to have a BMW straight 6 screaming in front of me! laugh

SidewaysSi

7,365 posts

189 months

Thursday 6th February
quotequote all
Mr Tidy said:
marky911 said:
As Mr JWW said in his podcast the other day (before this announcement). Commuting is just something we have to do and get through. EV or autonomous is fine for that, but real driving is about fun and passion.
So again, I’m happy to drive whatever on my boring commute, but if I’m heading to the Alps or Scotland I want a screaming flat6 behind me.

Edited by marky911 on Thursday 6th February 22:05
Nicely put. thumbup

But I no longer do a boring commute and could only charge an EV by throwing a cable over my garden fence, that would inevitably be unplugged by some scrote one day!

Thankfully at my age I don't think 2035 will be an issue for me, but in the meantime I'm happy to have a BMW straight 6 screaming in front of me! laugh
What BMW do you have?

SidewaysSi

7,365 posts

189 months

Friday 7th February
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MartinGLeeds said:
FourWheelDrift said:
RDMcG said:
2035 is the final ban.

However, doubtless there will be tighter and tighter regulation between now and then. We are already seeing the demise of many performance engines and I have no doubt this will continue. I think the future is very grim indeed. Very glad I grew up in the era of freedom and excitement with ICE.

Of course there will be existing cars, but they will grow more and more impractical...old electronics, failing airbags, part shortages and so on. There will be collectors of course, but for most people it is a forced march to the electric chariot.
Just like the internet porn ban, when they find it's not possible it will be extended, extended again and then dropped.
Fine observation & I for one agree.

It sounds ace the idea, keep repeating it over and over make everybody think you’re so cool and thoughtful and hope the people who know it simply can’t be done, shut the fk up we, are creating illusions. Then....................like the Porn Ban decide it’s not that bad after all and just carry on W a n k i n g & everybody can carry on drive the cars we love.
The government is made up of totally incompetent fools. I wouldn't believe a word they say.

Scootersp

1,405 posts

143 months

Friday 7th February
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Right now I think a tiny proportion of homes with an EV don't also have a ICE car.

There is a certain impatience in us all due to modern life, I mean we can be annoyed by a slow loading webpage! Everything to date in modern life is geared to speed and convenience, fast food, drive throughs, contactless pay at the pump etc So the EV issue is time to fill up and so potential planning hassles.

Now people say it's only this amount of time after x miles but at some point with a current EV you will hit an issue where events will conspire to leave you waiting. Even if it's user error in not taking the opportunity to charge a few hours ago compared to ICE it'll annoy or add a stress that's simply currently not there?

Add to that possible infrastructure vs car mismatch and you could have real delays. Bank holidays to the West Country etc, traffic chaos at peak times every year means peaks of demand for mid journey charging. Do you have a potentially wasteful amount of charging points or do you just except longer delays to recharge. It is not more convenient than ICE yet, cheaper potentially greener at source sure, but most convenient for the end user.....not yet and that could be a stumbling block?

sparks_190e

11,425 posts

168 months

Friday 7th February
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We'll probably be able to fit electric engines to our petrol/diesel cars. I'd actually be well up for an electric engine in an 80s/90s Mercedes as long as I can still run a proper one!

Embrace the future, our current situation isn't sustainable forever.

Alextodrive

242 posts

30 months

Friday 7th February
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Roma101 said:
Sorry, but I disagree. I think you could certainly argue that many people (especially in cities and urban areas) use their ICE cars too much and should consider taking alternative means of transport (including switching to EVs/hybrids). However, for many people, having a car is either essential and/or their standard of living would be substantially reduced by not having a car and/or it would take them forever to do the simplest of things. Therefore, for many people, it is not a privilege or anything like it.

As has been said, cars are an easy target for certain sections of society to attack. But banning new ICE cars from 2035 is not going to solve the problem, and as a couple of other posters have argued well, not even feasible.

Don't get me wrong - I haven't anything against EVs (I have one) and I would also urge people to consider making the switch.
Our standard of living is a privilege, not a divine right.
In fact, we have very little in the way of divine right, and almost everything is a privilege.

It wasn't all that long ago that we struggled to put food on our own tables, deal with plagues and illness, and all had a substantially lower quality of life.

The major change came about with the industrial revolution. A revolution reliant on oil, gas and coal. The very fuels we are running out of or cannot continue to use without causing substantial change to the climate that will cause other vast problems.

We use oil not just to fuel the transportation to move all our food and goods about, but to make a huge quantity of the products we rely on.

What people don't seem to understand is just how vast and serious the problems we are facing are, and continue to argue about how it's a divine right to have a car if they happen to live somewhere a bit more isolated.

monty quick

212 posts

191 months

Friday 7th February
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I am not pro EV nor anti-EV. I just feel that 'banning' petrol and diesel is too heavy handed. Yes, I know ICE are inherently inefficient but look at the improvements that have been made over the last 15years and then consider what might be possible in another 15 years.

The whole life carbon cost of a typical small EV (at the moment) is far worse than the whole life carbon cost of an equivalent ICE vehicle (in sheer whole life calculations a Tesla X would equate to something like two Range Rovers) AT THE MOMENT!!! Of course this will improve.
All battery chemistries have a defined (and relatively short) life and the faster you charge the batteries the shorter life gets. Therefore, EV charging will always need many minutes.

My problem is therefore infrastructure. Just for my doomsday scenario bear with me. Imagine that in 2038 almost all of the 40million + cars in the UK are now EV's.

Now imagine just about any street, in any town that has 1930's - 1960's terraced houses both sides of the road. Almost every house has one car on the front garden and a second car crammed somewhere on the street (two wheels up the kerb to allow traffic to flow). Now imagine all of the heavy duty cables running to those cars from charging points in the houses (somewhere else??); imaging the old electricity infrastructure almost glowing red due to being overloaded; imaging the thieves at night coming along and stealing all that expensive copper wire, etc., etc. OK, not all the cars can get connected at home - that's OK they can drive to the dedicated public charging points (somewhere??) but 'oh no' there are already 25 cars connected and another 5 waiting - damn! Some of those cars are fully charged but the owners have gone off shopping!

Yes of course I am painting a 'worst case' picture but tell me; with reducing fuel tax revenues juts how is the EV infrastructure going to avoid my doomsday scenario??

This is why I keep hoping that Hydrogen Fuel Cells can be rapidly and dramatically developed because then some of those 40million vehicles could still just pop into the service station for a 'fill-up'.

rick.e

759 posts

226 months

Friday 7th February
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monty quick said:
This is why I keep hoping that Hydrogen Fuel Cells can be rapidly and dramatically developed because then some of those 40million vehicles could still just pop into the service station for a 'fill-up'.
They have, they are here, and you can buy one today from Hyundai if you want, though good luck with finding somewhere to refuel it, and when you do, your fuel costs will be double that of petrol. All that extra cash across the nation would pay for a lot of extra EV infrastructure. Lamp post charging sockets would seem to be one answer to your terraced housing problem

Like yourself, I was once a fan of hydrogen as a fuel source until I did more research. Most don't realise, the technology is not new, and has been in use industrially since the 1960's by companies like this: https://www.loganenergy.com/ . But while there is some scope to improve efficiency, even the theoretical maximum "wire to wheel" efficiency will never come close to the "wire to wheel" efficiency of batteries, so sadly fuel cells lose the argument. (I am no fan of batteries, and have a host of electric appliances lying in my garage, from shavers to hedge trimmers rendered useless by the fact that every recharge gave me less usage) .

Then you have the production problem. Steam reformation of natural gas is cheap(er), but releases CO2 so doesn't solve the problem. Electrolysis is extremely inefficient and expensive. Hydrogen production will always be expensive, and the challenge of gearing up to produce enough of it is significant.

And don't underestimate the infrasctructure challenge of storing, and transporting, large quantities of hydrogen. Every street already has electricity. Surely the challenge of getting it to the kerbside can't be that hard to solve.