RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

Author
Discussion

DJT

219 posts

112 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
I'm guessing the cars or rather the ICE units that are going through development right now will be the last. Or maybe the last are already out there and they will just be tweaked and/or augmented with hybrid. Anybody aware of any brand new ICE units currently under development?

BlackTails

287 posts

6 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Roger Irrelevant said:
Edinburger said:
Unpopular view perhaps, but I think this is a good approach. Remember you can still buy petrol, diesel and hybrid cars up until then and run them thereafter.

However, we need massive investment in infrastructure from now. Petrol stations need to have fast chargers. Local charging facilities need to increase massively and we need to harness wireless charging from roads or lampposts or whatever for people without driveways.

We also need manufacturers to get the finger out and start selling quality electric cars at realistic prices.

Bring it on, I say.
Pretty much my sentiments - if this kick-starts work towards widely available, standardised infrastructure for EVs then great, hopefully it'll mean they'll work for me all the sooner. It's bizarre to see that Harry Metcalfe piece being used in support of the continuation of ICE vehicles too - the argument seems to be that it's fine because if we all hardly use our petrol and diesel vehicles then there wouldn't be much pollution.
Quite. This announcement needs to go hand in hand with a corresponding one that addresses how a massive volume of electric vehicles are going to be charged.

It is unfortunate that EVs are especially suited to highly urban environments, yet most people who live in highly urban environments don't have the luxury of a driveway or garage for charging. We have a couple of charging points in our immediate roads, and some (but not all) outlets built into lamp posts. There are far fewer lamp posts than houses though, so that's not a viable solution. There is also a lot of on-street parking. What's the solution? Building charging points outside each house? Building them one per car length in the parking bays? Having something that will let you run a cable from your house, over the pavement, to your car?

There's always an argument that if you want to force a solution and stop prevarication, impose a tight deadline and watch things work themselves out, but in this instance there aren't too many self-help solutions. Householders can't dig up the pavement to access mains cables. Although they can have charging points installed on their own property, getting the cable across a pavement to a car remains something that the local authority will inevitably wish to regulate.

Turbodiesel1976

1,957 posts

121 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
'From my cold dead hands!'

- Charlton Heston

otolith

40,295 posts

155 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
John.Taylor said:
When all-electric comes in what am I going to buy for £2k, a 15 year old Leaf with batteries that can't hold more than 50 miles charge?
When all-electric comes in, you will buy whatever snotter costs 2k in 2035, probably a late 2020's hybrid or EV. By the time you are buying a snotter from the all-electric era, say a 2035 car in the early 2040's, it's likely that the cost, longevity and service infrastructure for EVs will be far better than it appears to you now, looking at a car built a quarter century earlier.

RazerSauber

757 posts

11 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
What classifies a car as "new"? If you saw a car in Japan that you were desperate for, could you just buy it and import it?

DJT

219 posts

112 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
BlackTails said:
Quite. This announcement needs to go hand in hand with a corresponding one that addresses how a massive volume of electric vehicles are going to be charged.

It is unfortunate that EVs are especially suited to highly urban environments, yet most people who live in highly urban environments don't have the luxury of a driveway or garage for charging. We have a couple of charging points in our immediate roads, and some (but not all) outlets built into lamp posts. There are far fewer lamp posts than houses though, so that's not a viable solution. There is also a lot of on-street parking. What's the solution? Building charging points outside each house? Building them one per car length in the parking bays? Having something that will let you run a cable from your house, over the pavement, to your car?

There's always an argument that if you want to force a solution and stop prevarication, impose a tight deadline and watch things work themselves out, but in this instance there aren't too many self-help solutions. Householders can't dig up the pavement to access mains cables. Although they can have charging points installed on their own property, getting the cable across a pavement to a car remains something that the local authority will inevitably wish to regulate.
Unless a good on-street charging solution is found, we can expect houses without driveways to become less desirable for motorists (be they owners or renters of those vehicles).

u9ge

29 posts

10 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
RenesisEvo said:
TheOrangePeril said:
As for cheap little runabouts, by 2035 there will be a hell of a lot of EVs on the second hand market. I see no reason why they would be drastically more expensive than the 15yr old cars people buy and run cheaply now.
The problem being a 15 year old ICE car has the same range (or sometimes, better, thanks to shrinking fuel tanks for WLTP) as a new one. Those used EVs will be fundamentally compromised - there's going to be a conundrum where a used BEV is flawless but also worthless because its battery is knackered so it has an unpalatable range, and the cost of changing the battery is more than various alternatives (e.g. buying a used ICE or hybrid, public transport for small distances, etc). What value do you place on a £100k-new Tesla that can now only do 30 miles? Replacement batteries will have to get a lot cheaper (difficult using rare materials of finite supply), otherwise a lot of early BEVs will become very shiny scrap. Look at mobile phones - how many are perfectly fine but get junked after 2 or 3 years because of the battery life. There's a very limited market for them - you buy new, you replace with new. The used market is tiny. EVs may go the same way - good news for manufacturers, bad news for the impoverished.


Edited by RenesisEvo on Tuesday 4th February 13:00
Looking at Tesloop, they're holding up pretty well, https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/23/500000-miles-...

I think the problems going to be finding someone building an ICE car in 2035... The last BNEF report had batteries still dropping in price at circa 20% pa and tesla have deployed 15,000 superchargers in 7 years. So massively over simplifying things, by 2035 your battery will cost 7x what it costs to fill my car up.

Tom_The_Light_House

40 posts

58 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
I remember the days when Car Tax was called Road Tax. When we weren't taxed on the CO2 in the exhaust but the fact you were using a road.
When people say electric cars will be "robbing the Government of much-needed tax revenue", this is not true.
The government will happily revert back to charging people to use the road.

"It's still 15 years away, no need to panic."
Ah HS2 started in 2018 and was planned to complete in 15 years (2033),
Do we really believe then that the infrastructure required to charge cars, on streets were some people have to park 100 yards away from their own home ; can be ready in the 15 years. I dont believe it

"I guess F1 can no longer "justify" themselves."
Figures from F1 (so i'm not saying they are totally accurate), show that football matches have a larger carbon foot print due to the travel of all the fans and teams.
The world cup alone had the same carbon footprint as 12 years of F1.
LETS BAN FOOTBALL !

While i agree that we need to find a better alternative to fossil fuels, I feel electric cars are a bit like the "Emperor's new clothes"
Not everyone can afford the changes required to run a EV. Buying one to start with and setting up charge points etc.

Well I have a battered 20 year old car, because that's all I can afford to run at the moment.
So in an other 20 years I look forward to driving some of todays new EVs ;-)


J4CKO

29,640 posts

151 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Turbodiesel1976 said:
'From my cold dead hands!'

- Charlton Heston
Died April 5, 2008 (aged 84)
Beverly Hills, California, U.S.

LucyP

213 posts

10 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
And who is going to pay for the required infrastructure? Corbyn proposed nationalising BT and giving everyone free high speed broadband. The share price dropped, the industry laughed and Corbyn lost the election big time, yet there is far less infrastructure change required to do that than to be able to charge battery cars.

Are we going to build lots of new nuclear power stations? Are we hoping on a eureka moment in electricity storage technology, so that when we hit peak demand and there is no gas power station to fire up, we can release all the megawatts from the storage batteries, that the renewables generated when we didn't need it? Or are we just going to keep burning gas and pretending that is green?

In just 15 years are we really going to roll out a fast charger to every house, business, street and car-park? And the car-park and on-street ones will have to cost the same as plugging in at home, otherwise it is unfair to those who don't have a drive or a garage. Who is going to pay for and continue to subsidise all that?

Is it just social engineering to force cars off the road? Not prepared to pay for a charger yourself at home? Tough, don't buy a car. No drive? Not enough on-street? Tough, don't buy a car. Want to charge up at times of peak demand? Tough, you can't. Won't be enough charge for the long journey the next day? Tough, take the train.

And we are also going to pretend, just like we did with diesel, and just like we do with biomass that we import from America, (that is cut down by a hand saw, shredded by a waterwheel equipped mill, taken to and from the port by donkey and cart, and sent over in a sailing ship. Isn't it?) that mining the raw materials for electric motors and batteries is all so green.

You have to hope that it's a hydrogen powered future. If not get used to public transport!




Grrbang

250 posts

22 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Is this an economic decision dressed up as an environmental one? If consumption, investment and government spending has to go up, whatever the reason, then GDP goes up. The timing seems very convenient as it will cause 'growth' within his tenure and definitely by the 2025 election.

Edit: It will fast-track the decline of the ICE industry, however it's arguably in a slow death spiral anyway and nobody wants pointless subsidies.

Whether this is good or bad economically is, as always, far too complicated for us mere mortals to understand. However I would be surprised if Boris thought about anything much beyond the effect on voter perception.

PAUL RUN

136 posts

114 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
the answer is...
move to SCOTLAND.
.
The Scottish government does not have the power to ban new petrol and diesel cars but has already pledged to "phase out the need" for them by 2032 with measures such as an expansion of the charging network for electric cars.
.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-513...

W12AAM

36 posts

32 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
I just cannot see this happening..?

By the time we reach 2035; Most or all of the politicians who've "promised this" will be dead or retired and a new government will be in.., so they wont have to say sorry, we got it wrong.

Current estimates say it will need 8/9 Hinkley Nuclear Power stations to power JUST THE EV CARS!,

Hinkley point started under Tony Blair in 1997...And its currently forecast to be completed by 2026 - Approx 30 years from start to finish...and we will need ANOTHER 8 of these !, ....along with loads of others to power our homes/offices etc. as gas/coal has been banned & we are relying on wind!!

Go to ANY carpark in offices, underground, supermarkets , stations etc. & you will see approx 2/3 Electric charge-up points only.
There will need to be 100's fitted in all of these places.

Miles and miles of streets will have to be dug up all over cities / London etc. just to install the cabling.
Who will pay for all of this?
Will they get the resources?
Planning consents / DCO'S etc.

Like plastic now, these car batteries will show their un-environmental qualities very soon, once we cannot recycle them and the damage its doing to all the countries mining the raw materials to produce them.
How will scrap palces deal with all these large car batteries being recycled?
The cost of that? Who will pay?

What will replace the current fuel tax?...Battery tax?...Might as well stay with Petrol then?

EV's are still too expensive and unreliable for longer journeys.

GTEYE

1,562 posts

161 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
There was probably a similar amount of hysteria when horses were replaced by motor vehicles at the turn of the 20th century.

I'm not saying I'm for it, but we are at a tipping point where ICE engines will be phased out.

But the change will happen gradually, use VW as an example:

VW Golf Mk8 - likely lifespan 2020-2027
VW Golf Mk9 - likely lifespan 2028-2035 and then phased out

VW ID3 Mk1 - likely lifespan 2020-2027
VW ID3 Mk2 - likely lifespan 2028-2035
VW ID3 Mk3 - 2035 onwards....rebadged "Golf"

And remember, horses weren't banned, they became used by enthusiasts - the same will be true for ICE cars. But for the masses, the EV will be just fine.

RobM77

33,725 posts

185 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
RobM77 said:
It's a bit weird when your hobby and passion is legislated like this. I'm assuming it'll still be legal to own and drive internal combustion engine cars, just like steam engines have been for decades now. I wonder how fuel will be sold for those of us with internal combustion engine classics? How expensive will it become?...

I sincerely hope the government are attacking the far more polluting sectors of commercial transport such as artics and particularly ships, otherwise it's just a farce. I watched Harry Metcalfe's video on his classic Esprit the other day, and despite it being an old school 1970s engine, he worked out that it had output the same CO2 in its entire life that a typical artic outputs in a couple of months... (I think I've remembered that right - correct me if not).
Yes, you remembered it right but its a small, lightly used, pampered plaything for one or two people versus something in constant use for moving goods for thousands of people, good video but I dont think the Haulage Industry should move over to 40 year old Lotuses biggrin
I am sympathetic to the damage cars have done to the environment, but my point was that I would expect the government to crack down on all emitters of CO2, not just cars, and with appropriately proportioned actions. If private cars emit a tiny proportion of the CO2 that ships and artics do, then I would expect that same proportion to be exercised in legislation.

Additionally, I would be fairly content with some sort of EV thing to get to work and back if I could have something like the Lotus at home for precisely the use you describe - it would be a minimal impact.

Augustus Windsock

1,961 posts

106 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Intelligent comment of the topic coming from me now;
“fk Greta Thunburg, I’m going to buy a 7.0 60’s Mustang and create my own hole in the atmosphere”
Ok, perhaps not as extreme as that, but I don’t get how this will work
I currently and temporarily live in a house with no drive but a lamp post directly outside
The lamp post is in the middle of say 6-8 house so pray tell how will we charge our cars from it if we all needed to do so. And that’s presuming you can park outside your house.
As for cables trailing across the pavement, I don’t think it’s viable to have them lifted above head height, they still have to come down to the car at some point.
I agree about ships and airliners too, as some others have posted, how will they have their emissions curbed I wonder? And why stop there, lets get Greta to ban WRC and F1, they must contribute hugely to emissions what with all of the planes carrying the teams cars, personnel and equipment about, let alone those poor Homo sapiens that actually enjoy watching cars burn fossil fuels.
I don’t l ow what the answer is but perhaps the politicians might show us the way by using video conferencing instead of flying all over the world in G8 and Bilderberg meetings...?

Zener

16,749 posts

172 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
cuda said:
Are they going to ban fossil fueled aircraft too?

Didn't think so...
This ^ big big polluters but the stats get brushed under the carpet just like chemical industries due to profits involved (and the big cats involved) guess they'll stick with the motorists and farmers then (easy pickings) irked even the do-gooder environmentalists often swerve aviation scratchchin

TyrannosauRoss Lex

24,281 posts

163 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Andy20vt said:
Surely if the Government were serious about reducing CO2 emissions then they could ban the overweight, unnecessarily high CO2 producing SUV's overnight with zero impact on people's ability to get around? The only exceptions would be if you can prove you need an SUV for work (e.g. you are a farmer), or you live in a very remote area with a rutted dirt track leading to your front door.
What is your obsession with being anti-SUV? You don't seem to have a problem with big V8 estate cars. Clearly, they must be so much better rolleyes

Fishy Dave

624 posts

196 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Numeric said:
So how many people who say we must go electric also eat meat, like dairy products and have children?
Yup, agreed. It's sad that the superb TV programme about the human population explosion doesn't seem to have been spoken about much. Probably because anyone who dares suggest the world consider smaller families will become instantly labelled a child hater?
https://populationmatters.org/news/2020/01/17/chri...

Is there any information on exemptions on older/classic cars?

otolith

40,295 posts

155 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
Fishy Dave said:
Is there any information on exemptions on older/classic cars?
You will definitely not be able to buy brand new classic cars in 2035.