Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[niggtv]

suffolk009 said:

ghost83 said:

Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income

If the chancellor wants a level playing field and the self employed to pay equivalent taxes, he'd better figure out how to pay the self employed their holidays, sick days, pensions and offer them all the same other benefits..

Why would the government start to fund holidays, pensions etc for self employed? The employee pays for these benefits, not HMRC! Off topic, but there hast been much of a case for self-employed paying lower taxes for some time - however over time equalising will be reflected in cost of services which will mitigate any effects.

[kdsl]

suffolk009 said:

ghost83 said:

Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income

If the chancellor wants a level playing field and the self employed to pay equivalent taxes, he'd better figure out how to pay the self employed their holidays, sick days, pensions and offer them all the same other benefits..

^^This. Hence my previous statement to which I thought his comments were directed at the IR35 lot

[kdsl]

niggtv said:

suffolk009 said:

ghost83 said:

Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income

If the chancellor wants a level playing field and the self employed to pay equivalent taxes, he'd better figure out how to pay the self employed their holidays, sick days, pensions and offer them all the same other benefits..

Why would the government start to fund holidays, pensions etc for self employed? The employee pays for these benefits, not HMRC! Off topic, but there hast been much of a case for self-employed paying lower taxes for some time - however over time equalising will be reflected in cost of services which will mitigate any effects.

To answer your question with a question; If the self employed (and I'm talking about real self employed, trades etc who work all hours, when they're sick etc) are expected to pay the same tax as those that receive sick pay, holidays, pension etc. Why would anyone bother to be self employed?

[Durovigutum]

kdsl said:

To answer your question with a question; If the self employed (and I'm talking about real self employed, trades etc who work all hours, when they're sick etc) are expected to pay the same tax as those that receive sick pay, holidays, pension etc. Why would anyone bother to be self employed?

Same reason that buying a car on 0% finance isn't really 0%. The cost to the employer of sick pay, holiday, pension is reflected in a lower salary.

IR35 is a problem - I have seen shocking abuses of it. Thing is, IR35 is tinkering where the whole PAYE and NI system is broken. People just don't realise that a "20% taxpayer" is a 31% payer (PAYE and NI added together); a 40% is a 41% tax payer (NI drops to 1% over 45k); earn between 50 and 60k and have two kids - you are a 57% tax payer (tapered removal of child benefit - the only tax the recognises a family unit). The whole system needs a reset.

[JuniorD]

Sensibly priced good quality cars will always sell. In fact despite the environmental measures being taken against diesel vehicles, reports are that VAG are planning construction of a giga-factory which will produce used 1.9TDI PD engined vehicles with 65,000 miles on them that will go straight from the production line into the official dealer second hand network.

[Caddyshack]

growlerowl said:

So said:

Assuming your response is typical, that suggests that prices will take a bath quite soon.

Interesting question is whether there will be any used car dealers left in 6-12 months' time if big price drops are in the pipeline. Will they be forced to liquidate and refinance? If so where will the finance come from?

There will always be some left or new ones as people will always buy used cars, the price will reflect demand and available money for the buyer. Traders without finance can pick up sale or return or some stocking finance. The only problematic cars are the ones they bought pre virus if prices drop so they have to take a hit and then use the cash flow to buy the new stuff.

People talking about recession and depression are the people that will talk the country in to it. The minute people go back to work they will begin to spend again.

[CubanPete]

kdsl said:

To answer your question with a question; If the self employed (and I'm talking about real self employed, trades etc who work all hours, when they're sick etc) are expected to pay the same tax as those that receive sick pay, holidays, pension etc. Why would anyone bother to be self employed?

Sick pay, holidays, pensions and other benefits come from employers, not the government. As an employee I still have to earn them, along with my bosses dividend and big salary.

[red_duke]

Sa Calobra said:

It's a perfect storm. Brexit will be delayed. It has to be now.

Boris won't though. His whole principle upon winning the election was based on out now.

Brexit happened. I think you mean the "transition period" will be extended?

[growlerowl]

Caddyshack said:

The minute people go back to work they will begin to spend again.

That's if there is work for them to go back to - lots of employers may simply cease to exist within a month or two, and the self-employed may find a drastically reduced market for their services.

No amount of Pollyanna-ish optimism can magic away 3/6/12 months (or however long this goes on) of lost productivity. Sadly.

[Deep Thought]

red_duke said:

Sa Calobra said:

It's a perfect storm. Brexit will be delayed. It has to be now.

Boris won't though. His whole principle upon winning the election was based on out now.

Brexit happened. I think you mean the "transition period" will be extended?

[av185]

crosseyedlion said:

ghost83 said:

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

It’s ok saying it will be frozen and no problem but in reality a lot of companies are going to go to the wall, a lot of people are going to be out of work, a car or supercar will not be a priority so sales will go down and therefore so will prices till they do sell, you will see car dealerships offering fantastic finance deals and discounts to get cars sold,

Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.

You'll be claiming estate agents and qualified valuation surveyors dictate and influence property valuations next.

Similarly CAP do not influence values throughout the car market in any way other than for those who take their GUIDE prices too literally.

[Bigwod]

The last couple of weeks i have been out and about in my mint Escos which is just 27 miles short of 28k , had many offers to buy it at top money so I'm certainly not going to worry if i need to move it on which i don't, and if prices do go down to a large extent ill buy another one.

[KPB1973]

Barchettaman said:

Absolutely correct, but the correct definition of ‘decimate’ is so little-known, and the word so consistently misused, as to render any attempt at correction pretty pointless.

I haven't heard the parapet one before.

If you drew the short straw, the other 9 members of your cohort (i.e. your brothers in arms you had just been to war with) had to beat you to death for your collective cowardice - in front of the rest of the century. And so on with each cohort, until one tenth of the unit accused of cowardice had been decimated.

For those with an inquisitive mind around entymology etc, 'A line in the sand' is another good one (allegedly) from Roman times worth looking up.

[anonymous-user]

kdsl said:

That speech was in reference to IR35 and those in avoidance, not all self employed. Self employed builders, plumbers, Sparky's and the like are not affected. That's way way I received it anyway.

I didn't read it that way, absolute minimum NI rates will harmonise.

[anonymous-user]

suffolk009 said:

If the chancellor wants a level playing field and the self employed to pay equivalent taxes, he'd better figure out how to pay the self employed their holidays, sick days, pensions and offer them all the same other benefits..

Those dont come from government coffers, the employer and the employee pay for it via higher NI. SE have recieved a bailout under normal circumstances they wouldn't receive, it's naive to think that money wont be clawed back.

[liner33]

mstrbkr said:

If you're going to trade it in, using the value of it against a new car, the lower used value isn't an advantage!

If you were just going to hand it back and walk away, it doesn't matter to you what the used market is doing.

I know what the GFV is so whatever happens to the used market I know where I am and of course I can make the most of it. If I hand it back then I'm at zero whatever the market does but if I had paid for it up front and its worth £3k less than the GFV I essentially have to pay £3k to get back to zero.

[growlerowl]

Bigwod said:

The last couple of weeks i have been out and about in my mint Escos which is just 27 miles short of 28k , had many offers to buy it at top money so I'm certainly not going to worry if i need to move it on which i don't, and if prices do go down to a large extent ill buy another one.

That's a somewhat iconic and pretty rare car these days, so probably somewhat insulated from price drops. So good for you if that's the case. I doubt that the regular nippy/thirsty but not particularly collectable car in the £20k-40k bracket (which is what I'm interested in) will fair as well over coming months. A chunky drop of prices in that category isn't hard to envisage. How many people are going to be shopping for a supercharged 500hp Jag in the next 6 months at current prices?

[av185]

A jag like that is bad news at the best of times unlike lots of far more desirable medium to high end stuff.

[growlerowl]

av185 said:

A jag like that is bad news at the best of times unlike lots of far more desirable medium to high end stuff.

Why so? Reliability doesn't look terrible for an XKR, XFR or XJR unless I've been reading the wrong sources.

Recommend me some alternatives! No MB or Audi. Likely V8 or perhaps smaller forced induction. 0-60 around 5s. Less than ten years old. Four seats minimum. No hatchbacks. A Golf R Estate is another option I was considering for example.

Edited by growlerowl on Thursday 2nd April 16:23

[Pioneer]

growlerowl said:

How many people are going to be shopping for a supercharged 500hp Jag in the next 6 months at current prices?

No one I suspect, haven't all the 70+ year olds been told to stay indoors