Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Author
Discussion

Wooda80

1,717 posts

30 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Right, I'm going to put my 2014 car up for sale straight away.

Once prices have dropped 40% I'll be able to get a 2017 model for the money I draw from the sale..

Auto810graphy

571 posts

47 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.

Sorry to be the party pooper but what happens if suddenly two above average mile C63’s are added for sale at say £4000 less than your current average price? Would this not bring the average down?

Welshbeef

40,665 posts

153 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.

Why has my car depreciated the most? FFS.

jsf

17,072 posts

191 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Wooda80 said:
Right, I'm going to put my 2014 car up for sale straight away.

Once prices have dropped 40% I'll be able to get a 2017 model for the money I draw from the sale..
I did that end of 2008, sold my 9 year old car and bought the same model 3 year old car for the same money 3 months later.

paddy1970

42 posts

64 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Auto810graphy said:
Sorry to be the party pooper but what happens if suddenly two above average mile C63’s are added for sale at say £4000 less than your current average price? Would this not bring the average down?
Please bear in mind that I have excluded high mileage car (over 100k miles).

However if you have 2 cars with above average mileage £4k less than the rest, it will bring the average down by less than £800 (there is a minimum of 10 samples). It won't explain the £3k difference.

Next week, I will show the average mileage so the comparison can be contrasted with the average price. Or I can try to compare like for like. I will have a think!

Edited by paddy1970 on Sunday 24th May 18:51

Inky81

162 posts

51 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
mike74 said:
Deep Thought said:
And thats exactly why you shouldnt take a small snapshot of data taken over a very small timeframe which draws a conclusion from it based on many assumptions and with no access to the underlying data, and then extrapolate that out over a predefined timeframe.
Agreed.

I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
rofl

jammy-git

25,094 posts

167 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
BJWoods said:
but ity needs to be 'perfect' - the bit missing, is the hardest bit making it impossible.. Or impractical real wrld video is 'perfect conditions, rain, mist, snow, fog, dark, etc,etc,etc

and throwing/collecting more data at it will just make this harder and more expensive.. morte processing power could make this harder.

let alone human behaviour.. and pedestrians gaming car behaviour, when more on the road. new laws, road layouts wil be needed. mixing human drivers and autonomy, is going to be really interesting, people know how people react, autonomous cars will be not be quitethe same. Imagine the problems with lots of autonomous cars? do they interact, do they 'negotiate' at the classic everyone wants to turn right at a roundabout? are they programmed more aggressively, to get out of junctions.. would a BMW AI, be more agressive than a Volvo one?

think of the issue arising when autonomous cars start interacting with each other (I encountered this weird type of emergent behaviour, with robots, at Reading Cybernetics department, decades ago)

All the car manufactures have gone about it the wrong way.. what is needed is autonomous roads..interacting with autonomous cars.. make the road the intensive hardware/processing beast, supplying information to the cars. much easier. an industry wide standard to conform to for the cars, to use the roads. and the 'FAST' lane... (100mph plus? could even be petrol, diesel, hydrogen car, autonomy should not bbe linked to an EV mentality. imagine Dual carriageway, and motorways. sensors, etc,etc, transponders in cars, communication from the road to cars on the road.. potential for very high speeds, and then autonomous cars, peel off onto non autonomous roads and hand controls back to the driver.. I'd happily have an EV, but why would I want to pay for autonomy, that seems obligatory for car manufactures to pretend to offer aswell..

Dump all the electronics. make the EV as light, simple as possible, basic driver aids. make it cheaper lighter. and dumb.

lets have lot's of electric cars first.. make them cheap light and no more 'intelligent' than the average Astra/focus/golf is..
Autonomy as a must have feature (more expensive evs) I think is holding EVs back. all imho


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:21


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:29
It doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to be a lot better than humans, which it almost is already.

And if any of those issues were insurmountable, we'd never have moved away from horses and into cars.

There's a huge amount of money to be made in the evolution into automonous vehicles. It's that which will power the change.

A1VDY

2,426 posts

82 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Anonymous-poster said:
ChocolateFrog said:
jammy-git said:
Maybe not m quite the topic of this thread, but I do wonder how used car prices are going to be affected as we move towards renewables; electric and hydrogen cars.

I'd imagine it'll be like cars that ran on leaded fuel. Eventually we just won't be able to get diesel, and petrol will only be available from specialists, and the vast majority of today's cars will become totally obsolete.
Horsey related stuff hasn't disappeared and they're essentially useless and obsolete.

I bet it's an industry worth a billion or two.
If we can still get hay they may make a comeback.
I'm using mine any chance I get now. Chuck the saddle on, a few carrots in my pocket and away down to the village shop.
Parking was a problem last time though, he pulled the post out of the ground with the bin attached..

Shadow R1

3,476 posts

131 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Inky81 said:
mike74 said:
Deep Thought said:
And thats exactly why you shouldnt take a small snapshot of data taken over a very small timeframe which draws a conclusion from it based on many assumptions and with no access to the underlying data, and then extrapolate that out over a predefined timeframe.
Agreed.

I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
rofl
hehe

jamoor

12,044 posts

170 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
BJWoods said:
but ity needs to be 'perfect' - the bit missing, is the hardest bit making it impossible.. Or impractical real wrld video is 'perfect conditions, rain, mist, snow, fog, dark, etc,etc,etc

and throwing/collecting more data at it will just make this harder and more expensive.. morte processing power could make this harder.

let alone human behaviour.. and pedestrians gaming car behaviour, when more on the road. new laws, road layouts wil be needed. mixing human drivers and autonomy, is going to be really interesting, people know how people react, autonomous cars will be not be quitethe same. Imagine the problems with lots of autonomous cars? do they interact, do they 'negotiate' at the classic everyone wants to turn right at a roundabout? are they programmed more aggressively, to get out of junctions.. would a BMW AI, be more agressive than a Volvo one?

think of the issue arising when autonomous cars start interacting with each other (I encountered this weird type of emergent behaviour, with robots, at Reading Cybernetics department, decades ago)

All the car manufactures have gone about it the wrong way.. what is needed is autonomous roads..interacting with autonomous cars.. make the road the intensive hardware/processing beast, supplying information to the cars. much easier. an industry wide standard to conform to for the cars, to use the roads. and the 'FAST' lane... (100mph plus? could even be petrol, diesel, hydrogen car, autonomy should not bbe linked to an EV mentality. imagine Dual carriageway, and motorways. sensors, etc,etc, transponders in cars, communication from the road to cars on the road.. potential for very high speeds, and then autonomous cars, peel off onto non autonomous roads and hand controls back to the driver.. I'd happily have an EV, but why would I want to pay for autonomy, that seems obligatory for car manufactures to pretend to offer aswell..

Dump all the electronics. make the EV as light, simple as possible, basic driver aids. make it cheaper lighter. and dumb.

lets have lot's of electric cars first.. make them cheap light and no more 'intelligent' than the average Astra/focus/golf is..
Autonomy as a must have feature (more expensive evs) I think is holding EVs back. all imho


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:21


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:29
You should try driving a car with autonomous capabilities.


I’m fairly sure my car can drive and concentrate much better than I can on a 2 hour journey on a motorway.

It can measure the exact distance from the car in front rather than a guess like I do, I believe it can also see in very heavy fog and I think even see the car ahead of the one in front.

jimPH

1,487 posts

35 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Auto810graphy said:
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.

Sorry to be the party pooper but what happens if suddenly two above average mile C63’s are added for sale at say £4000 less than your current average price? Would this not bring the average down?
If the next C63 is a 4cyl hybrid, Corona or not, prices for the last V8 will firm up.

BJWoods

4,994 posts

239 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
jamoor said:
You should try driving a car with autonomous capabilities.


I’m fairly sure my car can drive and concentrate much better than I can on a 2 hour journey on a motorway.

It can measure the exact distance from the car in front rather than a guess like I do, I believe it can also see in very heavy fog and I think even see the car ahead of the one in front.
my background was cybernetics... I'll wait for the early adopters to be the road fodder.. ;-)

more seriously, I'm not just interested in an autonomous car.. would have been great fun developing one, software, hardware, AI. etc etc,.
But just not something I want to persona;lly buy, or have a need for.

Happy to have an electric car.
eyeing up a Mustang Mach E - (most Mustang owners hate it... I don't.. Mustang Gt owner)


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 20:24

jamoor

12,044 posts

170 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
BJWoods said:
jamoor said:
You should try driving a car with autonomous capabilities.


I’m fairly sure my car can drive and concentrate much better than I can on a 2 hour journey on a motorway.

It can measure the exact distance from the car in front rather than a guess like I do, I believe it can also see in very heavy fog and I think even see the car ahead of the one in front.
my background was cybernetics... I'll wait for the early adopters to be the road fodder.. ;-)

more seriously, I'm not just interested in an autonomous car.. would have been great fun developing one, software, hardware, AI. etc etc,.
But just not something I want to persona;lly buy, or have a need for.

Happy to have an electric car.
eyeing up a Mustang Mach E - (most Mustang owners hate it... I don't.. Mustang Gt owner)


Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 20:24
You can always just switch it off and drive, I have never found it fun to drive in a straight line at @70mph but I’m sure some might.

nickfrog

12,024 posts

172 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
mike74 said:
Given that most people from all sides of the discussion seem to agree that the economic impact of this whole thing is going to take at least 6 months to play out, at -1.6% per week that should see a 40% drop in 6 months time.
laugh

growlerowl

242 posts

4 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
mike74 said:
Agreed.

I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
Yep, this made me chuckle as well biggrin

ging84

6,364 posts

101 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Came across this beast browsing autotrader

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202...

a 2006 bently continental for £15k

I'm not really too clued in on Bentley values so could be well wrong, but my initial reaction was must be a fix upper, but advert does not suggest it is.
seems way to cheap, 3 months ago I would have assumed scam but is this where thing are now?

dave_s13

12,437 posts

224 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Well I've had my BMW E93 for sale before the lockdown and it wasn't getting much interest.
Put the price up £500 and it sold yesterday? For pretty much what I paid for it 16months ago.... granted I had to spend a few quid on the damn thing over that time.

Anyway, bought a nissan leaf today, hopefully getting delivered next week, and it was/is a bargain.

I seem to have have sold high and bought low, which has never, ever happened to me before.

Weird times.

BJWoods

4,994 posts

239 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
jamoor said:
You can always just switch it off and drive, I have never found it fun to drive in a straight line at @70mph but I’m sure some might.
sure.. but i'll have paid for it..

Butter Face

20,989 posts

115 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Pretty much on the money for a private seller IMO.


ging84

6,364 posts

101 months

Sunday 24th May
quotequote all
Butter Face said:
Pretty much on the money for a private seller IMO.

Is that now taking into account covid or have cap values yet to have any adjustment due to the crisis yet?