Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Author
Discussion

gizlaroc

14,683 posts

178 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
55palfers said:
Have forecourt prices dropped by similar amounts? I sniff a bit of profiteering
I doubt it yet.

I haven't looked, I'm offloading cars not buying more.

Just had my mate from Audi on the phone asking how the last couple of days have been for me in clothing retail, couldn't cheer him up at all I'm afraid.



The reality is, most retailers over the last week are down, and down big, talking 50-75% down.
Most retailers have enough cash flow to get through one, maybe two months of paying rents, mortgages, rates, wages, electricity, phones and fibre and all the other bills that carry on even if business is not.
Doesn't matter how big you are, in fact the bigger you are the more a downturn can really hit and hit you far quicker.

Same for cafes, coffee shops, restaurants.

Same for those in the entertainment industry, be that cinema, theatre, concerts or those running the massive shows and events that go on every day with 100,000s of customers going through the doors at The N.E.C and the 100s of other venues around the globe.

Then we have the sporting events, the money that is generated for everyone when football match is on, many make their living off the footfall on match day, plus all those involved in the running of the stadium itself.

What about those working in public transport getting everyone to the stores, restaurants, sporting events and business shows? No real need for them if no one is going anywhere.


The problem we have at the moment is 99% of those who are employed will have absolutely no idea just how desperately tight things are getting until the bosses tell them.
What will they tell them? Could be "We have got to let you go" or "We have got to reduce your hours down by 50% of 75%".
It is only then that the reality of this will hit home, it is then that many will think long and hard about the new PCP or contract hire they have signed, it is then they will think "Do I really need to change my car. Maybe I just need to hand it back and buy something older for cash."

By the way, he did just say "I hope many with new orders don't realise they have a 14 day cooling off period".
Something to remember folks.



Back in 2010 I bought a 3 year old A6 3.2 Quattro Avant from Peterborough Audi for £13k down from £23k.
They had too many cars for their forecourt, they had 54 trade in coming in and not sold anything used for 8 weeks, and they also had new cars that customers had cancelled coming in. They just needed to move metal whatever the hit.

Will we see that again? Who knows?

But the reality is, if we go in lock down will the company you work for still be there when it is lifted? If so, will you be able to afford your monthlies or if paid for, will that nice car sat on the drive be worth more to you in your bank?


I think the only saving grace for dealers is this has not happened just before the new regs. That could have seen them hit far harder. September will be very interesting.






Robmarriott

2,021 posts

112 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
WonkeyDonkey said:
I'd quite like Elise prices to go back down to 2008 levels so I can buy mine back!
I quite fancy an S1 so a few grand off current prices would be lovely.

Scho

2,345 posts

157 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Let’s have 911Sc’s back at 8k please so I can stop kicking myself I didn’t buy a 994 Turbo instead at the time!

R.Sole

10,985 posts

160 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
Chipper said:
I wonder how the car bloggers with all their cars on PCP will cope.
I wonder how the UK with all their cars on PCP will cope?


That is the reality.
They will be fine because the PH PCP evangelists never tire of telling us it’s the finance Co that take all the risk with the GFV!
You just hand it back and WALK away! wink

Marlin45

1,199 posts

118 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
liner33 said:
Dead people dont need to drive so used prices of Honda Jazz, Rover 75 and Toyota Avensis will likely drop as the market becomes flooded.
...+ small Peugeots, MG's, Ssasyongs........ redfacesmile

Edited by Marlin45 on Friday 13th March 12:31

Jim the Sunderer

2,335 posts

136 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
I hadn't planned on buying new wheels until about 2022 but if a slightly used iPace or Mustang drops to about £15k I'll be on it like a car bonnet.

I don't think this will be as bad as the credit crunch though so I can only daydream.

Davey S2

12,243 posts

208 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
Already falling fast.

I have been bombarded with texts and emails from Mercedes and BMW this week about "Never to be repeated deals this week!".


Speaking to the local dealers a few people have cancelled purchases over the last week.
Mate at Audi who works on the fleet sales side said just about every deal is on hold.
I test drove a couple of cars last weekend and was very close to buying on Tuesday but have put plans on hold. No immediate need to buy so will wait to see what happens.

Pommy

10,735 posts

170 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
People are going to stop going out, so there wont be any shortages of used cars, there just won't be any car sales, new or used.

No one is going to start buying cars when you have a combined economic meltdown plus an incurable virus on potential every surface you would touch, every car dealer you visit and every private sellers doorbell you have to ring.


mike13

534 posts

136 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
55palfers said:
Have forecourt prices dropped by similar amounts? I sniff a bit of profiteering
I doubt it yet.

I haven't looked, I'm offloading cars not buying more.

Just had my mate from Audi on the phone asking how the last couple of days have been for me in clothing retail, couldn't cheer him up at all I'm afraid.



The reality is, most retailers over the last week are down, and down big, talking 50-75% down.
Most retailers have enough cash flow to get through one, maybe two months of paying rents, mortgages, rates, wages, electricity, phones and fibre and all the other bills that carry on even if business is not.
Doesn't matter how big you are, in fact the bigger you are the more a downturn can really hit and hit you far quicker.

Same for cafes, coffee shops, restaurants.

Same for those in the entertainment industry, be that cinema, theatre, concerts or those running the massive shows and events that go on every day with 100,000s of customers going through the doors at The N.E.C and the 100s of other venues around the globe.

Then we have the sporting events, the money that is generated for everyone when football match is on, many make their living off the footfall on match day, plus all those involved in the running of the stadium itself.

What about those working in public transport getting everyone to the stores, restaurants, sporting events and business shows? No real need for them if no one is going anywhere.


The problem we have at the moment is 99% of those who are employed will have absolutely no idea just how desperately tight things are getting until the bosses tell them.
What will they tell them? Could be "We have got to let you go" or "We have got to reduce your hours down by 50% of 75%".
It is only then that the reality of this will hit home, it is then that many will think long and hard about the new PCP or contract hire they have signed, it is then they will think "Do I really need to change my car. Maybe I just need to hand it back and buy something older for cash."

By the way, he did just say "I hope many with new orders don't realise they have a 14 day cooling off period".
Something to remember folks.



Back in 2010 I bought a 3 year old A6 3.2 Quattro Avant from Peterborough Audi for £13k down from £23k.
They had too many cars for their forecourt, they had 54 trade in coming in and not sold anything used for 8 weeks, and they also had new cars that customers had cancelled coming in. They just needed to move metal whatever the hit.

Will we see that again? Who knows?

But the reality is, if we go in lock down will the company you work for still be there when it is lifted? If so, will you be able to afford your monthlies or if paid for, will that nice car sat on the drive be worth more to you in your bank?


I think the only saving grace for dealers is this has not happened just before the new regs. That could have seen them hit far harder. September will be very interesting.
What a great post, i'm off sick currently but work in an environment where there is not enough staff normally, so my job's safe if i make it back, you've highlighted a lot of situations i hadn't given real thought too.

cossers

2,137 posts

94 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
av185 said:
Trade prices are up not down.

Dont believe everything you read.

Got to love all these stories about mate of a mate down the pub lol.
I agree, Porsche forum is sickening at the moment, tales of woe, people posting adverts and making reference of low priced cars! People are just tired seeing that ste! Esp when most on there own one!


Edited by cossers on Friday 13th March 14:08

cedrichn

61 posts

5 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
With almost no sport on TV this weekend, could be that people will look at ads and change their cars ? tongue out

cedrichn

61 posts

5 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Davey S2 said:
I test drove a couple of cars last weekend and was very close to buying on Tuesday but have put plans on hold. No immediate need to buy so will wait to see what happens.
What are your bet ? What do you wait for ? What is your plan/theroy(ies) ?

austinsmirk

3,783 posts

77 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
I'm predicting a flood of Lexus and all the mundane SUV's that old folk seem to love- all the kia's, hyundai's, MG's, moka's- all that tat.

feasibly loads of fleet motability cars being returned and up for sale too. so loads of BMW 2 series smile

greenarrow

2,189 posts

71 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Certainly could be a good time for buying a car... running a cheap shed myself and waiting for the right moment to upgrade to something a bit nicer.

I well remember the 2008 financial crash and all those supercars going for buttons..wasn't it about that time that Harry Metcalfe bought his Countach? Shrewd fellow...

Hopefully some of the recently unattainable (for people like me) modern classics will reach more affordable levels. Stuff like DC2 Integras, 205GTIs and so on and so forth...


Vroomer

Original Poster:

1,477 posts

134 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.

This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.

To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.

As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
This not what happened in the 2008 financial crisis – used prices collapsed and took a year to recover. I don't see why this is different.

BlackR8

304 posts

31 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.

This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.

To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.

As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
This not what happened in the 2008 financial crisis – used prices collapsed and took a year to recover. I don't see why this is different.
I remember the used market crashing, and if I recall it was interest rates being cut back that meant people started seeing assets like classic cars etc as places to put money instead of sitting in a low interest paying bank account. However this time round the interest rate is already on the floor so if we do hit a recession it may not be the same pattern.

I remember selling a very well sorted E46 M3 with all the right CSL bits for just over £6k in 2008/9, today I think the same car would be around £12k+. Doh! banghead

Venisonpie

702 posts

36 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.

This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.

To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.

As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
Until last week I would have agreed with this - 260,000 mile 2013 transit for 2700quid anyone?

However the world is now fast becoming very different. Confidence at all positions in the market will freefall as both businesses and private buyers all defer big purchase decisions. Dealer stocking charges will rise and the stock will become toxic.
The issues at play are macro not micro.

gizlaroc

14,683 posts

178 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Venisonpie said:
Until last week I would have agreed with this - 260,000 mile 2013 transit for 2700quid anyone?

However the world is now fast becoming very different. Confidence at all positions in the market will freefall as both businesses and private buyers all defer big purchase decisions. Dealer stocking charges will rise and the stock will become toxic.
The issues at play are macro not micro.
Agree totally.

This week is very, very different to last week.


The reality is though that 90% of the UK have not realised just how bad it is yet.
Unless you run the company, see the books, understand the overheads, why would you?
It will take 4-8 weeks for it to truly hit home.

Of course we have many in the public sector who will never get it and wonder what everyone is moaning about. They get paid no matter what. They will always shout "It's all doom and gloom".

The reality of what is happening now is very different and imho far worse than 2009.




av185

11,002 posts

81 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
Meanwhile across the pond the Dow Jones is up 10%.

gizlaroc

14,683 posts

178 months

Friday 13th March
quotequote all
av185 said:
Meanwhile across the pond the Dow Jones is up 10%.
Mate, looking at your garage.....

Current cars 911 991.2 GT3 manual clubsport, Ferrari 458 Italia, 911 997 GTS PDK coupe, 981 Spyder, 981 GT4, 718 GT4 due (poss RS), 911 991.2 GT2 RS PDK due at some point

I don't think you are where the majority of the country are.