Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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SSO

1,515 posts

206 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Venisonpie said:
This is the interesting thing, I was convinced we'd see prices drop for used cars. I've changed my position having sold three recently and been staggered at what they achieved. That said how long they remain like this who knows, I'm still pessimistic for the longer term once supply starts to come back. Having said that the three month break has given manufacturers a window to plan with govts picking up the interim labour costs. They can control outputs to match predicted reduced demand - they won't have huge production runs backing up that need to be discounted so margin can be maintained.

I've been consistently wrong so far and probably am still!
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.

Throttlebody

2,561 posts

69 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Good article thumbup

Deep Thought

37,653 posts

212 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Camelot1971 said:
growlerowl said:
There's a big difference between giving the most accurate forecast you think is possible with a list of caveats versus intentionally playing some kind of ridiculous underpromise/overdeliver game as the CFO of an automotive giant worth billions (which is what DT was suggesting, in keeping with his MO of dismiss all negative news/talk up all positive news) . Getting your forecasts wrong as the CFO on regular occasions just demonstrates incompetence or worse and will get him fired.
Compared to your MO of dismissing all positive news/talk down all positive news?confused
Another forum psychiatrist.
I can see why that would worry you.

SSO

1,515 posts

206 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Good article thumbup
Appreciated

Camelot1971

2,784 posts

181 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Camelot1971 said:
growlerowl said:
There's a big difference between giving the most accurate forecast you think is possible with a list of caveats versus intentionally playing some kind of ridiculous underpromise/overdeliver game as the CFO of an automotive giant worth billions (which is what DT was suggesting, in keeping with his MO of dismiss all negative news/talk up all positive news) . Getting your forecasts wrong as the CFO on regular occasions just demonstrates incompetence or worse and will get him fired.
Compared to your MO of dismissing all positive news/talk down all positive news?confused
Another forum psychiatrist.
Cheer up! Things could be worse for you. Oh, wait...

Bemmer

1,177 posts

217 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Camelot1971 said:
Cheer up! Things could be worse for you. Oh, wait...
Reminds me of a boy at school who had no friends so he was always seeking attention but still ended with no friends... sad really...!

Shadow R1

3,839 posts

191 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Great article. smile

Earthdweller

15,993 posts

141 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Shadow R1 said:
Great article. smile
+1

Very informative,

I had no idea there was so much value tied into a few Senior collectors



Venisonpie

4,049 posts

97 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Interesting read and agree with the comment that those in the know currently don't know. I buy and sell vehicles for a living albeit in a very different market and I admit I'm a bit lost. All I do know is not having any of the 350 financed is probably a good thing.

Throttlebody

2,561 posts

69 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
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UK car finance lending suffering badly. Notice the drop in lending even before lockdown.


mdavids

729 posts

199 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
So pretty much an exact correlation between the entire world going into lockdown and a huge dip in spending.
How interesting rolleyes

Deep Thought

37,653 posts

212 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
UK car finance lending suffering badly. Notice the drop in lending even before lockdown.

Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?

Wow who'd have thought it.

AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.

Amazing! What an insight!

Glad someone took the time to graph that up.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:19


Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:20


Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:21

Throttlebody

2,561 posts

69 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?

Wow who'd have thought it.

AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.

Amazing! What an insight!

Glad someone took the time to graph that up.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:19


Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:20


Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:21
3 edits biggrin Always a pleasure to help with some real numbers. Gives a good baseline.

New car finance was already trending low from Jan.

Zoobeef

6,004 posts

173 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
UK car finance lending suffering badly. Notice the drop in lending even before lockdown.

Doesn't really look like "we're the busiest ever", "never sold this many cars in a day", "people are queuing up to buy xyz new car i have in".

Also a pretty st looking V

Deep Thought

37,653 posts

212 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Zoobeef said:
Throttlebody said:
UK car finance lending suffering badly. Notice the drop in lending even before lockdown.

Doesn't really look like "we're the busiest ever", "never sold this many cars in a day", "people are queuing up to buy xyz new car i have in".

Also a pretty st looking V
You do get that is showing up to MAY when all car dealers were still closed, right?

They didnt reopen until JUNE.

Deep Thought

37,653 posts

212 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?

Wow who'd have thought it.

AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.

Amazing! What an insight!

Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
3 edits biggrin Always a pleasure to help with some real numbers. Gives a good baseline.

New car finance was already trending low from Jan.
Yeah "car sales were low when all dealers were closed shocker". Good to get that documented.

Also new cars were trending below last year in January / Feb, used cars were trending above (and rising) in Jan / Feb.





Zoobeef

6,004 posts

173 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
You do get that is showing up to MAY when all car dealers were still closed, right?

They didnt reopen until JUNE.
Shame it wasn't permanent.

Deep Thought

37,653 posts

212 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Zoobeef said:
Deep Thought said:
You do get that is showing up to MAY when all car dealers were still closed, right?

They didnt reopen until JUNE.
Shame it wasn't permanent.
Why? confused



Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 13:24

JamesL91

63 posts

143 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
Zoobeef said:
Shame it wasn't permanent.
Stop the fun bus all, Zoobeef says 20 plates is where we should stop. No more cars people, close up. New cars are a thing of the past.

What a strange sentiment.

jammy-git

29,778 posts

227 months

Saturday 4th July 2020
quotequote all
It's insightful to know by how much sales dropped. I don't get why it's any more or less interesting than other months when sales go up or down by a percentage point or less.

It's the job of these companies to report the figures regardless of what they might be. It's not like they can just say "well there was a pandemic so we're not going to report any figures for March to May".
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