Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Scootersp said:
Touring442 said:
Venisonpie said:
I'm still pessimistic for the longer term once supply starts to come back.
If it comes back. Belts tightened, hanging onto cars another year or two. Hopefully some stonking new car deals on the way. It's just guesswork from here. So if the belts are tightened and people stick then the manufacturers may be forced to reduce new and then finally there may be pressure on the used market..........'if' new deals get pushed down toward 1-3 year values of the same car out there now then sales may ebb back towards new and the used then take a hit.
I'm just trying to rationalise the supply hit that's being reported/real. Since the pandemic very few cars have been scrapped (due to MOT extension and lack of use in general) sales were impossible, so the supply hit has to come from the pend up demand being more towards used buys not new? even then most will be accompanied by a P/X, so is the supply squeeze mainly on the 1-3 year old stuff, ie people are buying them and older but not so much p/x them via new purchases (I appreciate it's layers and layers of different scenarios all overlapping).
Is it perhaps the pent up demand and then the lag to turn around all those P/x's to the right dealers as I know not all dealers will sell the p/x's they received they'll generally be selling newer and off load px's to other dealers.
Or is it huge company fleets just sitting on them and not returning/releasing to market?
Venisonpie said:
This is the interesting thing, I was convinced we'd see prices drop for used cars. I've changed my position having sold three recently and been staggered at what they achieved. That said how long they remain like this who knows, I'm still pessimistic for the longer term once supply starts to come back. Having said that the three month break has given manufacturers a window to plan with govts picking up the interim labour costs. They can control outputs to match predicted reduced demand - they won't have huge production runs backing up that need to be discounted so margin can be maintained.
I've been consistently wrong so far and probably am still!
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.I've been consistently wrong so far and probably am still!
SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Good article 
Throttlebody said:
Camelot1971 said:
growlerowl said:
There's a big difference between giving the most accurate forecast you think is possible with a list of caveats versus intentionally playing some kind of ridiculous underpromise/overdeliver game as the CFO of an automotive giant worth billions (which is what DT was suggesting, in keeping with his MO of dismiss all negative news/talk up all positive news) . Getting your forecasts wrong as the CFO on regular occasions just demonstrates incompetence or worse and will get him fired.
Compared to your MO of dismissing all positive news/talk down all positive news?
Throttlebody said:
Camelot1971 said:
growlerowl said:
There's a big difference between giving the most accurate forecast you think is possible with a list of caveats versus intentionally playing some kind of ridiculous underpromise/overdeliver game as the CFO of an automotive giant worth billions (which is what DT was suggesting, in keeping with his MO of dismiss all negative news/talk up all positive news) . Getting your forecasts wrong as the CFO on regular occasions just demonstrates incompetence or worse and will get him fired.
Compared to your MO of dismissing all positive news/talk down all positive news?SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Great article. 
SSO said:
I just finished putting together an article on the current situation and posted it on our site. The fact that prices really haven't moved is due to a unique set of circumstances that are likely to come to an end in the next several months once free/cheap money starts to dry up. Next 12-18 months are going to be an interesting ride.
Interesting read and agree with the comment that those in the know currently don't know. I buy and sell vehicles for a living albeit in a very different market and I admit I'm a bit lost. All I do know is not having any of the 350 financed is probably a good thing. 
Throttlebody said:
Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?Wow who'd have thought it.
AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.
Amazing! What an insight!
Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:19
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:20
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:21
Deep Thought said:
Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?
Wow who'd have thought it.
AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.
Amazing! What an insight!
Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
3 edits Wow who'd have thought it.
AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.
Amazing! What an insight!
Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:19
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:20
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 4th July 12:21
Always a pleasure to help with some real numbers. Gives a good baseline. New car finance was already trending low from Jan.
Zoobeef said:
Throttlebody said:
Doesn't really look like "we're the busiest ever", "never sold this many cars in a day", "people are queuing up to buy xyz new car i have in".Also a pretty s
t looking VThey didnt reopen until JUNE.
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Wow you mean when there was a pandemic spreading across Europe, had already hit the UK, was all over the News daily, with estimates about how many of us were going to die but before actual lockdown, people were actually starting to not go out and buy cars?
Wow who'd have thought it.
AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.
Amazing! What an insight!
Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
3 edits Wow who'd have thought it.
AND - New and Used car lending was in MAY a fraction of what it was the previous year, when we were in lockdown and all dealers were closed.
Amazing! What an insight!
Glad someone took the time to graph that up.
Always a pleasure to help with some real numbers. Gives a good baseline. New car finance was already trending low from Jan.
Also new cars were trending below last year in January / Feb, used cars were trending above (and rising) in Jan / Feb.
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