Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[HTP99]

Butter Face said:

Thankyou4calling said:

Last day of the month today so SMMT figures for June out soon after and there’s no hiding from them.

Actual Factual.

Let’s see if the “Really busy” “ Pent up demand” has translated through to a figure that confirms anecdotal.

I’m in the other camp I’m afraid and expect June 2020 to be below June 2019 even with the activity on here factored in.

SMMT figures will be for new registrations. I'm sure they will indeed be down on 2019 but no shocker there.

What would be interesting would be to see the used car sales figures (as per the title of the thread) we are down YOY on numbers on used, but only 10% different on overall profit. Go figure.

I don't think new car registrations figures will be as low as some are (oddly) hoping, don't forget that on top of the June orders which have also resulted in June registrations, there will also be end of March, April and May backlog registrations too which (for obvious reasons) are now being registered in June.

20 new registrations for me this month, my colleague has more, (would have been even more except for late deliveries) translate that across the country.

Anyway we'll see soon.

[Butter Face]

Thankyou4calling said:

Why no shocker there BF?

Showrooms shut late March, all of April, all of May.

Plenty on here saying they are busy. Pretty much 10 weeks with no sales

If that doesn’t translate to June at least matching last year in my opinion the new car trade is really REALLY in trouble and it will expose the talk on here for what it is. Talk!

But let’s see. It’ll be interesting.

Because factories were shut for 3 months, cars weren't coming through so less cars to register.

We are busy, we have been busy, this thread started about used car values, not new.

As per HTP, we (as a company) are 40 units down YOY. We' still have an order bank of cars waiting to come through from the factory that would have been Mar/apr/may cars but are simply not here yet.

[Earthdweller]

Joey Deacon said:

Thankyou4calling said:

Last day of the month today so SMMT figures for June out soon after and there’s no hiding from them.

Actual Factual.

Let’s see if the “Really busy” “ Pent up demand” has translated through to a figure that confirms anecdotal.

I’m in the other camp I’m afraid and expect June 2020 to be below June 2019 even with the activity on here factored in.

Especially with the number of manufacturers who are restructuring or making staff redundant. Either they have got it wrong and the demand is still there, or this is a dead cat bounce.

Lets see how sales are in October after a summer of companies announcing redundancies and the furlough scheme ending.

Indeed, EasyJet announced 4500 job losses today including 727 pilots with them pulling out of a number of U.K. airports

Add that to BA 12000, Virgin 3000 Ryan Air 3000 etc

That’s just one very visible high profile sector

The ripple is rising across all sectors and I still think that the autumn is when the chickens will come home to roost

[av185]

Airline cuts and job losses were expected in what is the hardest hit sector by the pandemic.

[Earthdweller]

av185 said:

Airline cuts and job losses were expected in what is the hardest hit sector by the pandemic.

As I said :

That’s just one very visible high profile sector

But, my local paper is full of businesses shedding staff, places closing down others not reopening

The high St looks like a wasteland.

My wife’s business had 40% of staff in some sectors on furlough, many are back some aren’t

The business carried on throughout running about 90% and I’m pretty sure consolidation will be taking place before 2021 in both real estate and staffing

I’m pretty sure corporate boardrooms across the UK will be looking long and hard at what’s been learnt and where they need to be in the future

Hopefully I’m wrong but the autumn could see a jobs bloodbath

[Throttlebody]

av185 said:

Airline cuts and job losses were expected in what is the hardest hit sector by the pandemic.

Just as you can expect more job losses in the motor industry as the deep recession bites. The downturn in demand was even in progress pre CV19.

[Camelot1971]

jonindorset said:

Is this the calm before the storm? There are clearly two, maybe three sets of people out there.

1) Those working from home, carrying on as normal but with far higher savings than normal as little to spend money on - household savings rates have rocketed... Demand for family houses is exceptionally strong in many parts of the country. Some still finding the stock market little better than a casino are still busy out buying trophy cars (Porsche prices still seem remarkably strong) for example.

2) Business owners enjoying interest free loans, in some cases on multiple businesses I'm hearing busy buying new vans, sports cars and even speedboats! (so I'm being told...) My favourite local indy has said he's done more pre-purchase inspections in the last month or so than ever before.

3) Lower paid furloughed often service sector employees with potentially zombie jobs that will never return. Many now prevented from getting mortgages or faced with prohibitively large deposit requirements to get on the property ladder, starting to damage the lower end of the property market.

As wage inflation drops off a cliff along with job security and unemployment hits 5 million plus I envisage bargains galore come January / February.

4) The lazy, terminally feckless unemployed, who sponge off their family and friends while spending their days tracking car dealer closures on a large map (probably stolen from Smiths). They dream of the days when they owned an old Nissan Micra but realise that was the peak of their automotive journey.

[AndrewNR]

Condi said:

Suspect he would have probably taken 62 in the first place?




So... after 200 pages of salivating and wking over cheaper cars, plus some schadenfreude from some members, have we actually worked out whether car prices are going up, going down, or not doing anything at all?

No

[ChocolateFrog]

Camelot1971 said:

4) The lazy, terminally feckless unemployed, who sponge off their family and friends while spending their days tracking car dealer closures on a large map (probably stolen from Smiths). They dream of the days when they owned an old Nissan Micra but realise that was the peak of their automotive journey.

Those with a vested interest still a bit touchy in here I see.

[ChocolateFrog]

AndrewNR said:

Condi said:

Suspect he would have probably taken 62 in the first place?




So... after 200 pages of salivating and wking over cheaper cars, plus some schadenfreude from some members, have we actually worked out whether car prices are going up, going down, or not doing anything at all?

No

From a casual observer I haven't seen anything noticable regarding price.

I have noticed that there's a lot less 'interesting' stuff being listed for sale.

One example being Lexus LS600h, keep them in in my saved searches, just one has appeared on ebay since restrictions are lifted.

Another one is Landcruiser Amazons. Usually one or 2 listed per day, now it's probably 2 or 3 per week.

It's similar for most of the cars I keep a close eye on.

[Otispunkmeyer]

Earthdweller said:

av185 said:

Airline cuts and job losses were expected in what is the hardest hit sector by the pandemic.

As I said :

That’s just one very visible high profile sector

But, my local paper is full of businesses shedding staff, places closing down others not reopening

The high St looks like a wasteland.

My wife’s business had 40% of staff in some sectors on furlough, many are back some aren’t

The business carried on throughout running about 90% and I’m pretty sure consolidation will be taking place before 2021 in both real estate and staffing

I’m pretty sure corporate boardrooms across the UK will be looking long and hard at what’s been learnt and where they need to be in the future

Hopefully I’m wrong but the autumn could see a jobs bloodbath

Got some mates who work for JCB in uttoxeter. One at the main site and one at power systems a bit closer to the M1.

I say work. Worked. They're both being let go with around 40% of the total workforce. I found that crazy! I thought JCB were a bit of a success story. I didn't expect them to be doing something like that after a couple of months, considering construction is one of those sectors that seem to be able to weather storms others can't.

But no 40% going. Maybe they had too many staffers and too high overheads.

Where my wife works is doing similar. Now that's linked to oil and gas which hasn't been doing to hot for a while. But they've sold off offices located in the Scandinavian countries and they asked for voluntary redundancy. They got double the number they said they needed and accepted all of them. That's probably a blessing in disguise because it keeps some people in jobs who might have otherwise then been made redundant later.

The way it's going there...they still might! Apparently wage cuts for certain salary bands are next on the list.

Where I work hasnt been so bad. We've already been through the restructuring, efficiency drives and work force reduction before Christmas. So we were leaned out before this happened. Big orders are coming in as well, we've had a good q1 and q2 by the looks of it, thanks to earlier spending to get the right people to develop a new strategy. We were able to transition to remote working almost seamlessly and that includes having staff and customers do test work remotely as well.

But I'm sure the loss of just one big customer would see that change. I think though, what is keeping them there is regulation. They've got to have new cars and power trains tested and certified and they've got to work toward those 95g/km CO2 fleet average goals, amongst other emissions targets. Bailing now might write off millions in development and impact future earnings by loss of sales or fines. So they kinda have to keep trudging on!

[jsf]

JCB will be being hit by the collapse in exports for heavy machinery, with lots of countries all hit at the same time reducing demand.

It's a real shame, they were expanding consistently for years before CV19 appeared.

[giggity]

Been looking for a runaround for a friend (Auto, ULEZ (Petrol >05) within 100 miles of London)

You’ll be surprised how little is available and how fast stuff is snapped up (arm chair traders mostly) going by what two people told me when I missed their cars.

So clearly a massive demand for budget end cars - I guess many people are moving towards the car for their journeys over tubes and buses.

[PrinceRupert]

giggity said:

Been looking for a runaround for a friend (Auto, ULEZ (Petrol >05) within 100 miles of London)

You’ll be surprised how little is available and how fast stuff is snapped up (arm chair traders mostly) going by what two people told me when I missed their cars.

So clearly a massive demand for budget end cars - I guess many people are moving towards the car for their journeys over tubes and buses.

Cars earlier than 2005 can be ULEZ compliant.

[HTP99]

giggity said:

Been looking for a runaround for a friend (Auto, ULEZ (Petrol >05) within 100 miles of London)

You’ll be surprised how little is available and how fast stuff is snapped up (arm chair traders mostly) going by what two people told me when I missed their cars.

So clearly a massive demand for budget end cars - I guess many people are moving towards the car for their journeys over tubes and buses.

Yep, had a young lady buy a £6k car from me yesterday. Sunday morning she made the appointment for Monday evening, Sunday afternoon I had an Internet enquiry on the same car, rang her, she just said she wanted it based on the photos, propped her on finance late in the day.

Monday morning she was declined with zero chance of pushing it through, in the meantime had another internet enquiry on the car that had come through late Sunday, rang it told her that there was an appointment that evening but if she wanted to come in before it she could, she felt morally that she shouldn't as there was another appointment on it.

The girl who bought it said she had only been looking a couple of days and every car they had come up had been sold within hours of being advertised.

[Shadow R1]

Above are Bedford areodrome and the old Rockingham oval race track in Corby.
Runway is 2 miles long.
Oval is 1.5 miles.

Read that Bruntingthorpe is the same. Sorry don't have a pic of that location.

[Zed Ed]

Bedford looks like track day fun still possible; Rocks not so sure

[RUSSELLM]

Regarding people’s financial situation.... Do they tend to give up owning a vehicle all together, when they lose their job or get a lower paid one ?

Personally, I’d end up dropping to a cheaper vehicle. Possibly more economical, cheaper tax, insurance etc.

For that reason, pandemic or not, I can’t see how the arse would suddenly fall out of second hand motors.

For what it’s worth, the stuff I’ve been looking at, has gone up in price, since February.

[Deep Thought]

Shadow R1 said:

Above are Bedford areodrome and the old Rockingham oval race track in Corby.
Runway is 2 miles long.
Oval is 1.5 miles.

Read that Bruntingthorpe is the same. Sorry don't have a pic of that location.

I'm not entirely sure of your point?

Bedford aerodrome is a car storage site now is it not? Has been for a very long time. Cars are stored there.

Are there more there than normal? Almost certainly.

Is that a surprise given we're in a pandemic and just coming out of lockdown? No.

[SpamDisco]

Deep Thought said:

Shadow R1 said:

Above are Bedford areodrome and the old Rockingham oval race track in Corby.
Runway is 2 miles long.
Oval is 1.5 miles.

Read that Bruntingthorpe is the same. Sorry don't have a pic of that location.

I'm not entirely sure of your point?

Bedford is a car storage site now is it not? Cars are stored there.

Are there more there than normal? Almost certainly.

Is that a surprise given we're in a pandemic and just coming out of lockdown? No.

Also Rockingham closed down two years ago to become car storage, annoying as it had good views from the stadium watching BTCC
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/car-industry-news...