Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
80sMatchbox said:
The enforcement came far too late. S Africa has a proper lockdown and they've had no deaths. They've learnt from other nations, we didn't
They've 926 cases and no 'reported' deaths. It may be physiological, Germany has very high infection rate but low death rate.It will sweep through the townships, where in some places, they have to share water taps, let alone accommodation, and that's if every cause of death is actually determined.
Back on topic, used 'prices' aren't the same as used sales. People will still need transport......
321boost said:
Ferodocastrol said:
My brother sold his Highline 140ps 63 plate VW Transporter today, 84k miles FVWSH.
He wanted £13.500 you'll never guess what he sold it for?
£13.500! He didn't drop a pound coin! SOLD
Wow £13 and 50p sounds like a bargain He wanted £13.500 you'll never guess what he sold it for?
£13.500! He didn't drop a pound coin! SOLD
£13,500My bad, I was tired from log splitting most of the day.................not that type log...................
Edited by Ferodocastrol on Friday 27th March 08:26
Much of the car market in the classic and exotic sectors has been massively overpriced for years following the financial disaster and very low interest rates, people have invested in cars.
If drivers can have access to them rather than investors that's a good thing in my opinion.
It is also a fairly regular cycle.
Being able to buy a new car, keep it a year and get all your money back, which has been possible with many desirable BMW Porsche etc models for the last five years is not a normal occurrence either.
If drivers can have access to them rather than investors that's a good thing in my opinion.
It is also a fairly regular cycle.
Being able to buy a new car, keep it a year and get all your money back, which has been possible with many desirable BMW Porsche etc models for the last five years is not a normal occurrence either.
80sMatchbox said:
23rdian said:
The extra enforcement will come anyway regardless of what people do. Same as these ones did. They were baked in from the beginning. The media will tell you what to think and you will do it.
The enforcement came far too late. S Africa has a proper lockdown and they've had no deaths. They've learnt from other nations, we didn't And it will go nuts from there unfortunately.
Condi said:
Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
Seriously?! We are seeing unemployment like we have never seen before.
Try and log in to apply for Universal Credit because you have lost your job. See where you are in the queue just to apply for an interview.
Currently taking around 20 hours waiting online, you will start at around 50,000 in the queue.
Many countries are talking about unemployment hitting no more than 30% being a good result.
This is in every sector, the knock on from that can't be underestimated, the lack of money in the system will affect everyone.
We have seen government borrowing at a rate we have never experienced before. It was at £330bn before last night when he announced another £90bn plus for self employed workers.
This will have to paid back by us all with higher taxes, and we are not going to be talking an extra penny in the pound.
Risk rates for credit are already pushing borrowing up, we are seeing it with car loans, mortgages already and we haven't even really felt the results of this virus yet.
This is on a different level to 2008, hence the governments around the globe throwing so much money at it.
People have not run out of cash yet, but to think the majority won't in a few months I think is pretty naive. This will change are levels of spare income and our views of spending for many years to come I think, 90% of the country will feel much, much poorer over the coming years as we recover from this.
Not saying used car prices will plummet, in fact the reverse, but to say people are not running out of cash is ludicrous, most people are too far down the chain to realise we are running out of cash yet, there is a big difference.
gizlaroc said:
Condi said:
Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
Seriously?! We are seeing unemployment like we have never seen before.
Try and log in to apply for Universal Credit because you have lost your job. See where you are in the queue just to apply for an interview.
Currently taking around 20 hours waiting online, you will start at around 50,000 in the queue.
Many countries are talking about unemployment hitting no more than 30% being a good result.
This is in every sector, the knock on from that can't be underestimated, the lack of money in the system will affect everyone.
We have seen government borrowing at a rate we have never experienced before. It was at £330bn before last night when he announced another £90bn plus for self employed workers.
This will have to paid back by us all with higher taxes, and we are not going to be talking an extra penny in the pound.
Risk rates for credit are already pushing borrowing up, we are seeing it with car loans, mortgages already and we haven't even really felt the results of this virus yet.
This is on a different level to 2008, hence the governments around the globe throwing so much money at it.
People have not run out of cash yet, but to think the majority won't in a few months I think is pretty naive. This will change are levels of spare income and our views of spending for many years to come I think, 90% of the country will feel much, much poorer over the coming years as we recover from this.
Not saying used car prices will plummet, in fact the reverse, but to say people are not running out of cash is ludicrous, most people are too far down the chain to realise we are running out of cash yet, there is a big difference.
The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
crosseyedlion said:
On the flip side, consider all the money that is having to be (Virtually) printed to pay for all this, and thats before we can start to get back to normal in 3-6 months time (hopefully) and they will need another big cash injection to stimulate the economy (at present we are just maintaining, not stimulating)...we are very likely to see monumental levels of inflation in the next 12-24 months. Conservatively I would expect £1 in the bank now to be worth 70p in 12 months time.
The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
You're on to something here... there's a difference between 'prices' and 'values'. Over the last decade (and seems like going forwards as well given extent of proposed govt support) price of something becomes increasingly irrelevant and the relative value of it becomes more important. The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
V8RX7 said:
Being able to buy a new car, keep it a year and get all your money back, which has been possible with many desirable BMW Porsche etc models for the last five years is not a normal occurrence either.
Not sure what you mean by 'normal'.It is simply the established market forces of supply and demand at work. Together with masterly marketing.
Porsche deliberately underprice their halo cars when new and restrict manufacturing numbers both in the name of branding which hugely drives sales of vanilla models and maintains high residuals.
Fezzaman said:
crosseyedlion said:
On the flip side, consider all the money that is having to be (Virtually) printed to pay for all this, and thats before we can start to get back to normal in 3-6 months time (hopefully) and they will need another big cash injection to stimulate the economy (at present we are just maintaining, not stimulating)...we are very likely to see monumental levels of inflation in the next 12-24 months. Conservatively I would expect £1 in the bank now to be worth 70p in 12 months time.
The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
You're on to something here... there's a difference between 'prices' and 'values'. Over the last decade (and seems like going forwards as well given extent of proposed govt support) price of something becomes increasingly irrelevant and the relative value of it becomes more important. The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
gizlaroc said:
Vroomer said:
Interesting statistic:
At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.
At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.
So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.
What do you make of that?
I would guess that with dealerships closed and online sales only allowed we should see the numbers on autotrader grow like mad. At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.
At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.
So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.
What do you make of that?
Many main dealers don't put all their stock on autotrader.
BMW often have dozens of a certain model on their AUC site that are not listed on Autotrader.
I bet now they are throwing money at the online side far more.
Going out to look at cars (or collect if bought online) is not one of the Government's reasons for leaving home.
crosseyedlion said:
Fezzaman said:
crosseyedlion said:
On the flip side, consider all the money that is having to be (Virtually) printed to pay for all this, and thats before we can start to get back to normal in 3-6 months time (hopefully) and they will need another big cash injection to stimulate the economy (at present we are just maintaining, not stimulating)...we are very likely to see monumental levels of inflation in the next 12-24 months. Conservatively I would expect £1 in the bank now to be worth 70p in 12 months time.
The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
You're on to something here... there's a difference between 'prices' and 'values'. Over the last decade (and seems like going forwards as well given extent of proposed govt support) price of something becomes increasingly irrelevant and the relative value of it becomes more important. The values of 'stuff' will climb to compensate, although I would expect discretionary purchases such as anything but the most basic transport to be in much lower demand, that and many self employed/directors have been royally screwed - so prices effectively haemorrhaging for the forseeable.
Those with cash savings to weather this storm will find their reserves worth less. So embrace the 'YOLO' life and buy that toy and enjoy it or invest it in the stock market because your bank sure as hell isn't paying you enough interest to keep up with inflation to help you put it towards a deposit on escalating house prices (for FTBs) or funding retirement costs (or any other future obligations for the older/baby boomer generation). The shrewd folk have done precisely this (often a combination of both).
Sure there will be people running successful, profitable businesses that will feel a squeeze (possible understatement of the year), but that's life and the risks that come with it. But there are also plenty of 'employee' people on normal salaries that have not seen any wage inflation (net after income tax/NI etc) that have been saving and see the futility of their attitude so they will welcome a 'price' correction - be that house prices or a car - as an opportunity to finally buy. It's like going to the reduced aisle in a supermarket - the goods there are still the same and have the same 'utility' or 'value' to the buyer. The seller just needs shot of it.
On the flip side, those that were born into this cheap debt environment and treat everything as a monthly payment living paycheck to paycheck are in for a serious shock if their jobs aren't secure...
Vroomer said:
Up again to 534k cars today. Presumably indicates nothing selling and more cars be added in desperation.
Going out to look at cars (or collect if bought online) is not one of the Government's reasons for leaving home.
Of course. Going out to look at cars (or collect if bought online) is not one of the Government's reasons for leaving home.
Interesting to look at private sales too. They often account to 25% or so of sales.
I was looking to swap my 2015 Golf R for a slightly older M135i, my cars worth around £14250 according to WBAC 2 weeks ago. Was looking at a 2013 M135i listed at a BMW dealer for £15000.
Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
CJ1 said:
I was looking to swap my 2015 Golf R for a slightly older M135i, my cars worth around £14250 according to WBAC 2 weeks ago. Was looking at a 2013 M135i listed at a BMW dealer for £15000.
Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
Penny will drop with them eventually, they just aren't willing to accept it yet. Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
CJ1 said:
I was looking to swap my 2015 Golf R for a slightly older M135i, my cars worth around £14250 according to WBAC 2 weeks ago. Was looking at a 2013 M135i listed at a BMW dealer for £15000.
Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
Other than the blase attitude of the salesman, they're handling it as i would expect them to - they're not feeling any urge to discount their car currently (probably based on time in stock), however they're valuing your car based on what they expect to be able to retail it at next month.Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
Not an unreasonable business approach - particularly given they've had interest in the car at its current price - you plus maybe others?
06andiano said:
CJ1 said:
I was looking to swap my 2015 Golf R for a slightly older M135i, my cars worth around £14250 according to WBAC 2 weeks ago. Was looking at a 2013 M135i listed at a BMW dealer for £15000.
Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
Penny will drop with them eventually, they just aren't willing to accept it yet. Contacted them for a part ex valuation. Was offered £12500. They’re Inchcape group so they wanted to use mine as stock at their VW dealership and would probably list it for £16000.
I understand it’s not the time to be selling cars. But surely dealers are going to have to re adjust their prices?
The BMW salesman said “sorry mate it’s not the right time to be selling a car”, so I replied “well surely you as a dealer aren’t going to be selling any cars either so we can come to a deal? Il if my cars lost £2000 in 2 weeks il offer you £13000 your £15000 car?
BMW Saleman “nah mate we’re selling loads of cars at the moment. It’s just the Part Ex price that’s gone down”!!!
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
People won't have more money, or be willing to pay a higher cost to change just because of what's happened. The market will have to address this or cars won't shift.
I suspect it's probably going to be the latter two options that are the most likely, with lots of incentives from manufacturers on new vehicles. They're obviously going to want to do all they can to make up for missed sales.
People need to stop panicking over the current WBAC prices. Well, if there were any...
Condi said:
There seems to be some perverse thrill on here about prices coming down, either from those who want to buy something fun at silly cheap money, or those who are taking pleasure from someone else's expensive car now being worth less.
Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
Or you’re just scared that your car will be worth less.Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
321boost said:
Condi said:
There seems to be some perverse thrill on here about prices coming down, either from those who want to buy something fun at silly cheap money, or those who are taking pleasure from someone else's expensive car now being worth less.
Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
Or you’re just scared that your car will be worth less.Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
av185 said:
V8RX7 said:
Being able to buy a new car, keep it a year and get all your money back, which has been possible with many desirable BMW Porsche etc models for the last five years is not a normal occurrence either.
Not sure what you mean by 'normal'.It is simply the established market forces of supply and demand at work. Together with masterly marketing.
Porsche deliberately underprice their halo cars when new and restrict manufacturing numbers both in the name of branding which hugely drives sales of vanilla models and maintains high residuals.
I know several people who have managed to buy cars from Main Dealers and a year later, get all of their money back in allowance against a new model - that is not normal - ie it is unusual, yet it has been the norm for the last 5 or so years with various models, one mate even managed to get a better monthly deal on a new Kuga than he had on his current one - ie get a new car and pay less !
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