Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Author
Discussion

Vroomer

Original Poster:

1,505 posts

138 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?

jeff666

1,850 posts

149 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?
The guys we rent a forecourt to spend 4k a month on Autotrader,

they have cancelled this month but have been told they can advertise next month FOC.

V8fan

3,515 posts

226 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Are they mostly cheap ones? 7 days listing is free for cars under £1k. Otherwise I think it's pricey. People needing cash offloading their cars, or trying to? WBAC aren't taking any cars at all. Too much stock.

CRA1G

4,456 posts

153 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Had a conversation with my insurance broker this morning and they advised all their dealerships to remove as much open stock as possible,compound all stock closely together and remove V5's and all keys... they expect looting and theft to be the next problem in all types of businesses....yikes

Fezzaman

521 posts

151 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Anyone following F82/3 M4s? On Autotrader there are 828 cars advertised - is it me or is that a lot? Cooking 4 series tops out at 2443. So 25% of total 4 series are M cars?! Regardless of C19 that seems like massive oversupply

Numpty with honours

40 posts

41 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
jeff666 said:
Vroomer said:
Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?
The guys we rent a forecourt to spend 4k a month on Autotrader,

they have cancelled this month but have been told they can advertise next month FOC.
A few months ago typically on Autotrader around 490k were up for sale

In the property world, The London Office of the Auction House - originally offered for the auction on 25 March 131 Lots . 62 (nearly 50% withdrawn) so 69 went up for auction on the day and 48 sold - this is a appalling and gives you a flavour of how confidence has evaporated

https://www.auctionhouse.co.uk/london/auction/past...


av185

12,180 posts

85 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
the-photographer said:
Here is my question; common cars (Focus) all depreciate at a predicable rate, pre-virus of course. What will be the extra depreciation percentage because of today's environment on cars in the 1-36 month old range?

Expensive cars will be harder to predict, simpler because there is less volume. Looking at the Classified Ads, you might be able to guess which ones will have the hardest time:

California = 99
488 = 76
599 = 42

Aventador = 103
Huracan = 95

570s = 74

Bentayga = 114 (!!!) cheapest £87,000
Continental GT = 267

Edited by the-photographer on Thursday 26th March 10:41
Nothing on your above list appeals atm.

The only car of interest which will be good value and maintain it residually ££ plus future premium would be a Hurracan Performante. I am in the market for one of the right spec and mileage. £140k feels about right atm.

Future classic and relatively low numbers will guarantee a substantial premium ££ in c 18 months if bought at sensible money over the next 6 months.

570S a great package but quite dull as a road car. I sold mine last summer after 2 months. These will be cracking value into the autumn especially pricipally due to over supply. Trade is currently mid £60ks this could drop to mid £40ks over the next few months imo.

Numpty with honours

40 posts

41 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Numpty with honours said:
jeff666 said:
Vroomer said:
Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?
The guys we rent a forecourt to spend 4k a month on Autotrader,

they have cancelled this month but have been told they can advertise next month FOC.
A few months ago typically on Autotrader around 490k were up for sale

In the property world, The London Office of the Auction House - originally offered for the auction on 25 March 131 Lots . 62 (nearly 50% withdrawn) so 69 went up for auction on the day and 48 sold - this is a appalling and gives you a flavour of how confidence has evaporated

https://www.auctionhouse.co.uk/london/auction/past...
And at Savills today -120 lots in the catalogue - 51 withdrawn leaving 69 auctioned today of which 44 were sold. Bear in mind a number of very low value lots did sell so on the other stuff the outlook was bleak to say the least

https://auctions.savills.co.uk/Auctions/PastAuctio...

I fully expect big ticket items to be heavily discounted in the coming months and cars especially, particularly as most cars today are capable of well over 100,000 miles and dont need to be changed . So buyers looking to restore their balance sheet can delay upgrading a car for a good few years - so to sell a car it needs to be priced very attractively




A1VDY

3,123 posts

85 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
av185 said:
the-photographer said:
Here is my question; common cars (Focus) all depreciate at a predicable rate, pre-virus of course. What will be the extra depreciation percentage because of today's environment on cars in the 1-36 month old range?

Expensive cars will be harder to predict, simpler because there is less volume. Looking at the Classified Ads, you might be able to guess which ones will have the hardest time:

California = 99
488 = 76
599 = 42

Aventador = 103
Huracan = 95

570s = 74

Bentayga = 114 (!!!) cheapest £87,000
Continental GT = 267

Edited by the-photographer on Thursday 26th March 10:41
Nothing on your above list appeals atm.

The only car of interest which will be good value and maintain it residually ££ plus future premium would be a Hurracan Performante. I am in the market for one of the right spec and mileage. £140k feels about right atm.

Future classic and relatively low numbers will guarantee a substantial premium ££ in c 18 months if bought at sensible money over the next 6 months.

570S a great package but quite dull as a road car. I sold mine last summer after 2 months. These will be cracking value into the autumn especially pricipally due to over supply. Trade is currently mid £60ks this could drop to mid £40ks over the next few months imo.
Nothing will be 'cracking value' as its not going to worth buying anything, nothing at all. A car that's currently £60k dropping to £40k in the autumn will still not sell due to it being worth the grand sum of fk all in a further 6 months. The economy is going to completely collapse, there will be no market for expensive stuff of any kind whatsoever. The only cars which there will be a market for will be cheap basic stuff.
I'm under no illusion my Porsche will have the value of a 4 pack of Heinz beans. Its a perfect as new, very low mileage example but sadly it will make absolutely no difference.
The cars for sale I have on my site will have the value of scrap. Forget 'bargains', they won't be worth buying at any price..


Deep Thought

27,588 posts

155 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
A1VDY said:
Nothing will be 'cracking value' as its not going to worth buying anything, nothing at all. A car that's currently £60k dropping to £40k in the autumn will still not sell due to it being worth the grand sum of fk all in a further 6 months. The economy is going to completely collapse, there will be no market for expensive stuff of any kind whatsoever. The only cars which there will be a market for will be cheap basic stuff.
I'm under no illusion my Porsche will have the value of a 4 pack of Heinz beans. Its a perfect as new, very low mileage example but sadly it will make absolutely no difference.
The cars for sale I have on my site will have the value of scrap. Forget 'bargains', they won't be worth buying at any price..
The point of the lock down isnt to stop the virus, merely to slow it down long enough for the health service to be better prepared. At some point it is going to have to wash over the population and we'll have to take the hit on the deaths but as a society develop immunity to this virus, much in the same way as we now deal with the flus that hit, etc.

So, no, we're not facing complete collapse of economy to the point where anything but the most basic form of transport is worth nothing.

You can argue, postulate, hand wring about that all you like, but lets put a marker in to revisit your post and my response in a years time and see who was closest to being right.

CRA1G

4,456 posts

153 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
A1VDY said:
A car that's currently £60k dropping to £40k in the autumn will still not sell due to it being worth the grand sum of fk all in a further 6 months. The economy is going to completely collapse
I'm sorry,but you've at least made merofl

av185

12,180 posts

85 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
A1VDY said:
av185 said:
the-photographer said:
Here is my question; common cars (Focus) all depreciate at a predicable rate, pre-virus of course. What will be the extra depreciation percentage because of today's environment on cars in the 1-36 month old range?

Expensive cars will be harder to predict, simpler because there is less volume. Looking at the Classified Ads, you might be able to guess which ones will have the hardest time:

California = 99
488 = 76
599 = 42

Aventador = 103
Huracan = 95

570s = 74

Bentayga = 114 (!!!) cheapest £87,000
Continental GT = 267

Edited by the-photographer on Thursday 26th March 10:41
Nothing on your above list appeals atm.

The only car of interest which will be good value and maintain it residually ££ plus future premium would be a Hurracan Performante. I am in the market for one of the right spec and mileage. £140k feels about right atm.

Future classic and relatively low numbers will guarantee a substantial premium ££ in c 18 months if bought at sensible money over the next 6 months.

570S a great package but quite dull as a road car. I sold mine last summer after 2 months. These will be cracking value into the autumn especially pricipally due to over supply. Trade is currently mid £60ks this could drop to mid £40ks over the next few months imo.
Nothing will be 'cracking value' as its not going to worth buying anything, nothing at all. A car that's currently £60k dropping to £40k in the autumn will still not sell due to it being worth the grand sum of fk all in a further 6 months. The economy is going to completely collapse, there will be no market for expensive stuff of any kind whatsoever. The only cars which there will be a market for will be cheap basic stuff.
I'm under no illusion my Porsche will have the value of a 4 pack of Heinz beans. Its a perfect as new, very low mileage example but sadly it will make absolutely no difference.
The cars for sale I have on my site will have the value of scrap. Forget 'bargains', they won't be worth buying at any price..
Fair enough but you are talking from a traders perspective who needs to sell stuff for a living. We all know very little is selling at realistic prices atm for obvious reasons. You have my sympathy btw!

I am taking about buying stuff to run for 12 to 18 months which I generally do with my cars. By that time the market will have improved substantially as it did very quickly post financial crash 2008 as those who sold out on the drop/nadir and subsequently tried to buy back in later at substantially higher prices found out to their considerable cost ££.

On this basis with certain cars as with the stock market it can often be more expensive to be out of the market than in as the 16% rise in the FTSE just this week despite the prevailing economic woes illustrates only too well.

V8RX7

20,670 posts

221 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
A1VDY said:
Nothing will be 'cracking value' as its not going to worth buying anything, nothing at all. A car that's currently £60k dropping to £40k in the autumn will still not sell due to it being worth the grand sum of fk all in a further 6 months. The economy is going to completely collapse, there will be no market for expensive stuff of any kind whatsoever. The only cars which there will be a market for will be cheap basic stuff.
I'm under no illusion my Porsche will have the value of a 4 pack of Heinz beans. Its a perfect as new, very low mileage example but sadly it will make absolutely no difference.
The cars for sale I have on my site will have the value of scrap. Forget 'bargains', they won't be worth buying at any price..
Yes that's what they said during the Financial Crisis - I bought my wife an XC90 for £12k

I sold it a year later for £15k


av185

12,180 posts

85 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
V8RX7 said:
Yes that's what they said during the Financial Crisis - I bought my wife an XC90 for £12k

I sold it a year later for £15k
Yup we were buying repossessed 911 Carreras from Lombard which increased in value by around 20% in a matter of months.

Ferodocastrol

4,521 posts

183 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
My brother sold his Highline 140ps 63 plate VW Transporter today, 84k miles FVWSH.

He wanted £13.500 you'll never guess what he sold it for?



















£13.500! He didn't drop a pound coin! SOLD

V8RX7

20,670 posts

221 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?
That people still want to sell cars

I had a viewer on my Porsche today

I met him with hand sanitiser but he produced a mask and gloves and proceeded to inspect the car

No kittens were harmed

jamoor

13,671 posts

173 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Interesting how people are buying cars when they aren't allowed to leave home!

Justin Case

1,822 posts

92 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
There have been many financial crises over the years and they follow a similar pattern, rapid fall followed by a slow rise. Here we are in uncharted territory and even epidemiologists are uncertain how it will eventually pan out as it depends so much on how people behave. The logical response is to hold fire until the situation is clearer and we have come through the other side. All we can say with certainty is that activity will be very much reduced, I just hope that most businesses survive.

321boost

943 posts

28 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
Ferodocastrol said:
My brother sold his Highline 140ps 63 plate VW Transporter today, 84k miles FVWSH.

He wanted £13.500 you'll never guess what he sold it for?



















£13.500! He didn't drop a pound coin! SOLD
Wow £13 and 50p sounds like a bargain laugh

ZiggyNiva

977 posts

144 months

Thursday 26th March
quotequote all
CRA1G said:
Had a conversation with my insurance broker this morning and they advised all their dealerships to remove as much open stock as possible,compound all stock closely together and remove V5's and all keys... they expect looting and theft to be the next problem in all types of businesses....yikes
This explains the way JCT600 near me have parked their cars up. I did wonder