Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Ferodocastrol said:
I agree with both of you.
Its the same on other forums with talking down prices and I just don't get it. If you want a car and now feel you can haggle then get involved. I for one WONT be selling my cars unless I want to trade up or fancy a switch around which invariable involves added cash !
CJ1 said:
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
2 weeks? Let’s be realistic, the govt doesn’t fling money at people for 3 months for no reason - see how he feels in 6 weeks more likely, may be a completely different story by then (for both of you unfortunately)Rick1.8t said:
CJ1 said:
Hoping they’ll call me back when they open in 2 weeks again and we can come to a deal... but by the looks of it it’s just us that are going to suffer.
2 weeks? Let’s be realistic, the govt doesn’t fling money at people for 3 months for no reason - see how he feels in 6 weeks more likely, may be a completely different story by then (for both of you unfortunately)I'm seeing what I would call desperation from dealers. Not necessarily prices, but to gain buyers. I've seen at least 3 offer an arrangement of pay in full now and we'll store you car until this lockdown is finished.
Hmmm, that might work if you yourself were desperate and the car was as rare as hens teeth, but for normal stuff I can't see the upside of it. Not to mention not seeing or driving the car in person and giving a dealer that may be bust in a few weeks several thousand pounds.
Hmmm, that might work if you yourself were desperate and the car was as rare as hens teeth, but for normal stuff I can't see the upside of it. Not to mention not seeing or driving the car in person and giving a dealer that may be bust in a few weeks several thousand pounds.
V8RX7 said:
av185 said:
V8RX7 said:
Being able to buy a new car, keep it a year and get all your money back, which has been possible with many desirable BMW Porsche etc models for the last five years is not a normal occurrence either.
Not sure what you mean by 'normal'.It is simply the established market forces of supply and demand at work. Together with masterly marketing.
Porsche deliberately underprice their halo cars when new and restrict manufacturing numbers both in the name of branding which hugely drives sales of vanilla models and maintains high residuals.
I know several people who have managed to buy cars from Main Dealers and a year later, get all of their money back in allowance against a new model - that is not normal - ie it is unusual, yet it has been the norm for the last 5 or so years with various models, one mate even managed to get a better monthly deal on a new Kuga than he had on his current one - ie get a new car and pay less !
Don't forget that dependent on make and model a new car can actually be cheaper to buy outright than a lightly used one and this particularly invariably applies when it comes to pcp.
Also black market premiums are nothing new I ordered a new Estoril blue e46 M3 in 2003 from Bowker BMW Preston because even trade prices ££ used were at the time above list even for cars with 10k miles.
More recent examples include the original Evoque.
Porsche are an interesting one. Even the revered 997 GT3 RS 4.0 of which only 28 UK examples were ever made didn't make huge premiums at the time even though these cars can now retail up to £400k on the back of demand for smaller and more analogue cars. The standard 997 GT3 and all 911s actually depreciated similar to other similar priced cars at the time.
In terms of latter day cars it was the 991.1 GT3 in late 2013 that really introduced the black market despite 336 UK cars most of which had replacement engines and production was delayed as a consequence, mine included. Despite this initially flipped cars costing £110k otr sold for £180k and still retail up to £100k 25k miles some 6 years later. Subsequently the 981 GT4 Spyder and of course the 991.2 GT3 GT2 RS and GT3 RS benefit from varying premiums and still largely do although these are clearly under pressure in the current situation despite the right cars still selling well.
The crucial three main factors are of course timing, to an extent the prevailing economic backdrop and as I already said, supply and demand.
R.Sole said:
Anyone that thinks that this crisis is not going to change things going forward (for the worse) is either kidding themselves or has not quite grasped the seriousness of this sh£tstorm!
Used car prices will be one of the least of everyone’s worries!
Who said it wasnt going to change things?Used car prices will be one of the least of everyone’s worries!
321boost said:
Condi said:
There seems to be some perverse thrill on here about prices coming down, either from those who want to buy something fun at silly cheap money, or those who are taking pleasure from someone else's expensive car now being worth less.
Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
Or you’re just scared that your car will be worth less.Chances are that used car prices will not move that far. This isn't 2008, people on the whole haven't run out of cash, they're just not spending it now.
In my mind there are three things to consider;
- New car supply has been short for some time due to WLTP etc. It only just began to return to normal Q1 this year. This means anything already built or nearly new will sell quick when things return to normal. It might require loosing a bit of extra margin to do though.
- All factories are now closed and will be for at least 4-5 weeks looking at the way things are panning out. As above, no supply means people look at what is already built or used cars.
- The cost of 95RON fuel has nosedived over the last month to under £1, diesel isn’t far behind. Anything considered interesting or iconic (naturally aspirated, “the last of” etc) that is near its lowest price point may suddenly become popular or even increase in demand as they did in 2008. Also, I think the sales of diesel will increase in the short term.
Obviously, all speculation as no one knows what will happen. But I think those wishing for a massive price crash will be dissapointed.
- New car supply has been short for some time due to WLTP etc. It only just began to return to normal Q1 this year. This means anything already built or nearly new will sell quick when things return to normal. It might require loosing a bit of extra margin to do though.
- All factories are now closed and will be for at least 4-5 weeks looking at the way things are panning out. As above, no supply means people look at what is already built or used cars.
- The cost of 95RON fuel has nosedived over the last month to under £1, diesel isn’t far behind. Anything considered interesting or iconic (naturally aspirated, “the last of” etc) that is near its lowest price point may suddenly become popular or even increase in demand as they did in 2008. Also, I think the sales of diesel will increase in the short term.
Obviously, all speculation as no one knows what will happen. But I think those wishing for a massive price crash will be dissapointed.
NelsonM3 said:
In my mind there are three things to consider;
- New car supply has been short for some time due to WLTP etc. It only just began to return to normal Q1 this year. This means anything already built or nearly new will sell quick when things return to normal. It might require loosing a bit of extra margin to do though.
- All factories are now closed and will be for at least 4-5 weeks looking at the way things are panning out. As above, no supply means people look at what is already built or used cars.
- The cost of 95RON fuel has nosedived over the last month to under £1, diesel isn’t far behind. Anything considered interesting or iconic (naturally aspirated, “the last of” etc) that is near its lowest price point may suddenly become popular or even increase in demand as they did in 2008. Also, I think the sales of diesel will increase in the short term.
Obviously, all speculation as no one knows what will happen. But I think those wishing for a massive price crash will be dissapointed.
Agreed, though i think we will see a gradual return to (the new) normal, so it wont be an instant demand, with cars not available. I think manufacturers will be able to ramp up production in line with the gradual increase in demand.- New car supply has been short for some time due to WLTP etc. It only just began to return to normal Q1 this year. This means anything already built or nearly new will sell quick when things return to normal. It might require loosing a bit of extra margin to do though.
- All factories are now closed and will be for at least 4-5 weeks looking at the way things are panning out. As above, no supply means people look at what is already built or used cars.
- The cost of 95RON fuel has nosedived over the last month to under £1, diesel isn’t far behind. Anything considered interesting or iconic (naturally aspirated, “the last of” etc) that is near its lowest price point may suddenly become popular or even increase in demand as they did in 2008. Also, I think the sales of diesel will increase in the short term.
Obviously, all speculation as no one knows what will happen. But I think those wishing for a massive price crash will be dissapointed.
I hope there wont be a massive price crash - personally i'd just like to see stability in prices - and part of the reason for the big car price crash around 2009 was that a lot of people couldnt get finance. I dont think that will be the case in the new normal.
It's always nice to get cheaper fuel and it's something you notice every time you go to the pump (well I do anyway, many probably don't), but depreciation far outstrips it. Some owners justify a new frugal car by highlighting it's consumption.
At 1000 miles per month, a car will consume 100 litres at 10 miles / litre (45.4 mpg), and 200 litres at 5 miles per litre (22.7 mpg)
2 weeks ago (let's say £1.20 per litre), the costs would have been about £120 and £240.
Now the costs (£1 per litre, if the price stays down) are £100 and £200.
So the frugal car will save £20 per month, the gas guzzler £40.
At 1000 miles per month, a car will consume 100 litres at 10 miles / litre (45.4 mpg), and 200 litres at 5 miles per litre (22.7 mpg)
2 weeks ago (let's say £1.20 per litre), the costs would have been about £120 and £240.
Now the costs (£1 per litre, if the price stays down) are £100 and £200.
So the frugal car will save £20 per month, the gas guzzler £40.
After listening to the CAP video conference and the analysis and data held it's very interesting that they have stated there will be no CAP valuation changes in the next three months mainly because no vehicles can be bought or sold so values become static,which makes sense to me imo....
CRA1G said:
After listening to the CAP video conference and the analysis and data held it's very interesting that they have stated there will be no CAP valuation changes in the next three months mainly because no vehicles can be bought or sold so values become static,which makes sense to me imo....
Interesting, and a fair point.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff