Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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johnnyBv8

2,064 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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Richard-D said:
swisstoni said:
Deep Thought said:
swisstoni said:
That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.
Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".
You don’t think there might be some psychology going on AFTER the initial quote? Make the next offer a little bit lower to make the punter think that prices are turning down?
I wouldn’t put it past them at all.
.

I'm genuinely surprised that some people are unable to see the difference between a valuation and an offer. Just acknowledging that the party giving you the figure is looking to make a profit should be enough to prove this.

To clarify I don't hold anything against WBAC for doing this. You are not obliged to accept their offer. Very strange for others to pretend it's anything other than that though.
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.

WBAC assigns a sum to the car (using 'sum' terminology so as not to send the discussion down a blind alley again!), which is based generally on their ability to sell it at BCA and the price they expect to achieve. Whether it's an initial valuation or an offer is irrelevant; the trends of the assigned sum, obtained in the same way each month, are a fairly consistent proxy of the used car market, hence its discussion on the forum.

powerstroke

10,248 posts

124 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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WBAC offered £20150 online
Took 20 minutes to get offered £19400
Other trader offered £18000 subject to seeing
This was for a Toyota...

Deep Thought

28,742 posts

161 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.

WBAC assigns a sum to the car (using 'sum' terminology so as not to send the discussion down a blind alley again!), which is based generally on their ability to sell it at BCA and the price they expect to achieve. Whether it's an initial valuation or an offer is irrelevant; the trends of the assigned sum, obtained in the same way each month, are a fairly consistent proxy of the used car market, hence its discussion on the forum.
yes

Supercell

102 posts

96 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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RUSTILLDOWN said:
What did you go for? And have you used the invisibility spell yet? smile
I went for a BMW 340i, time will tell if I like my choice! Invisibility spell? You've lost me! rotate

Wilmslowboy

3,137 posts

170 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
WBAC offered £20150 online
Took 20 minutes to get offered £19400
Other trader offered £18000 subject to seeing
This was for a Toyota...
£1,400 more from WBAC is chunky amount more.

What did you think private sale should be ?

powerstroke

10,248 posts

124 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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Wilmslowboy said:
£1,400 more from WBAC is chunky amount more.

What did you think private sale should be ?
Maybe £20000 ?? Dealers seem to be be low 20’s

RUSTILLDOWN

140 posts

32 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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Supercell said:
I went for a BMW 340i, time will tell if I like my choice! Invisibility spell? You've lost me! rotate
Nice! Lol, my reference was a supercell game... doesn’t matter tongue out

andygo

5,898 posts

219 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...

This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.

The Rotrex Kid

23,869 posts

124 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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andygo said:
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...

This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
It’s based exactly off CAP. It just doesn’t give the retail figures or the previous book values etc that ‘proper’ CAP users can see.

Schmed

2,288 posts

36 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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The Rotrex Kid said:
andygo said:
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...

This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
It’s based exactly off CAP. It just doesn’t give the retail figures or the previous book values etc that ‘proper’ CAP users can see.
Wbac: ok, starting point in any negotiation

My reaction to the vw valuation:

roflroflrofl



Deep Thought

28,742 posts

161 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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WBAC seem pretty much bang on with our car...

They're quoting £21,340

VW / CAP are coming in with

Estimated value of your BMW M140I SHADOW EDITION AUTO
Excellent condition *:
£22,550.00
Good condition *:
£21,650.00
Average condition *:
£20,800.00

From Autotrader, retail price is around £24K ish, so all seems reasonably well aligned.


Richard-D

497 posts

28 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'.

Deep Thought

28,742 posts

161 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Richard-D said:
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'.
What, in the context of WBAC, are you seeing as the difference between an offer and a valuation?

If you describe the car accurately on their site, then they stand over that valuation. If they dont it will be based on plugging in their findings upon inspecting your car (kerbed alloy, scuff, etc) back in for a revised valuation.

What makes that an offer?

Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 20th December 22:41

Jules Sunley

609 posts

57 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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Is this now the WBAC process used arguing thread? Can we move on please...

Bullet-Proof_Biscuit

1,058 posts

41 months

Monday 21st December 2020
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986S Boxsters are about £1500/2000 more than equivalents when I sold mine less than a year ago ffs.

johnnyBv8

2,064 posts

155 months

Monday 21st December 2020
quotequote all
Richard-D said:
johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'.
No - you’re still making a completely different point biggrin . One last try and then I’ll give up....WBAC is being used on this thread as one of a number of proxies for the used car market - that’s the extent of its relevance. Whether it’s a valuation or an offer is completely irrelevant to the discussion of TRENDS of the used car market (and is one of a number of variables). It’s not that offer and valuation are the same thing, it just doesn’t matter in the context of viewing trends, as long as you look at the same price source/sum each time. That price could consistently be 20% of a car’s actual value and it still wouldn’t matter, as the trend/fluctuation would be the same.

Steve_F

854 posts

158 months

Monday 21st December 2020
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Deep Thought said:
I dont think they are that concerned. I'm sure they get tens of thousands of valuations per day. How much are they going to have to vary it to make someone change their mind? £100? £200? That could be their net profit margin.

If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.

In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
I'd just done the deal on my van, past the point where I could be influenced by BS, and the guy at WBAC pointed at a Merc he'd just "bought" off a couple. They took time to think about it and it had dropped £3k, they were something like a day out of the previous value and there was nothing the guy could do to help them out.

johnnyBv8

2,064 posts

155 months

Monday 21st December 2020
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To move away from WBAC discussion...it’ll be really interesting to see what happens in the used car market in 2021. At the start of this thread I, like the majority, were expecting prices to fall. I sold one of my higher value cars - I thought prices were falling but I reckon it’s still worth the same now approx 9 months later.

I’ve been keeping an eye on a few cars - sub 3 year old hot hatches (I’ve been looking at Golf R and GTI) seem to be going through BCA at well over CAP whilst more mundane stuff struggles, larger engined ‘enthusiast’ cars such as early 997s have gone up around 20%, and modern classics are selling quickly for strong prices.

Not sure what’s driving the market to date - whether QE is having any effect, or whether it’s more skewed by the covid grants and loans. In 2021 the economic reality will really hit home - many employees are still on furlough, and there isn’t a sense that there are many “distress sales” yet. Logically this should bring prices down, but if QE/desire for assets is playing a part then prices may not fall as much. My guess is that the heat will go out of the market, but there won’t be a crash in prices. Larger engined V8s etc may go back to suffering from wider pressures that they were facing pre-covid (taxation, EVs etc).

Edited by johnnyBv8 on Monday 21st December 09:07

A1VDY

3,575 posts

91 months

Monday 21st December 2020
quotequote all
Steve_F said:
Deep Thought said:
I dont think they are that concerned. I'm sure they get tens of thousands of valuations per day. How much are they going to have to vary it to make someone change their mind? £100? £200? That could be their net profit margin.

If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.

In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
I'd just done the deal on my van, past the point where I could be influenced by BS, and the guy at WBAC pointed at a Merc he'd just "bought" off a couple. They took time to think about it and it had dropped £3k, they were something like a day out of the previous value and there was nothing the guy could do to help them out.
It's at this point you tell wbapos to f. o and sell it yourself..

Vroomer

Original Poster:

1,542 posts

144 months

Monday 21st December 2020
quotequote all
Mr Tidy said:
I have no idea!

I sold my manual BMW Z4 Sport Coupe on 91K miles in February once I dropped the price to £6,600, and felt relieved I had shifted it before lockdown.

But as soon as lockdown ended prices went crazy, and still are going by this:- https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?postcode=g...
The Z4C has long been tipped as an appreciating classic, and that seems to be coming true.

Asking prices for the best are now £14-15k, decent ones are £9-10k and anything cheaper is likely to be mega miles or suspect in some way.

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