Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[321boost]

Definitely hit them hard. I suspect their prices will be five times more by end 2021. The cheapest used shed with a bit of rust will be about £7k+

[Gman20]

I think the Brexit changes mentioned by someone earlier are going to have the biggest impact on the cars we care about.
If there has been a net movement of 150k used cars to Ireland that will now be subject to vat that's big. If many of these cars were newish high end cars with the big more polluting engines that's very big.
We could see a return to the days of high depreciation on luxury cars.
If there has still been a flow of older high end older vehicles into eastern Europe that would also be hit by vat, that could see a return of cheap v8 sheds to our roads.

[Deep Thought]

untakenname said:

Lots of people on furlough are realising that there's no need to have multiple cars if they aren't doing the commute or school run so multi car households may just survive with one till this is over.

Which you expect to mean that used car prices would go / have went down, but that hasnt been the case.

[Deep Thought]

Gman20 said:

I think the Brexit changes mentioned by someone earlier are going to have the biggest impact on the cars we care about.
If there has been a net movement of 150k used cars to Ireland that will now be subject to vat that's big. If many of these cars were newish high end cars with the big more polluting engines that's very big.
We could see a return to the days of high depreciation on luxury cars.
If there has still been a flow of older high end older vehicles into eastern Europe that would also be hit by vat, that could see a return of cheap v8 sheds to our roads.

Hows that going to work? Surely this was Northern Ireland because of its unique status only, not Ireland or Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-549...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 19:13

[Gman20]

Deep Thought said:

Hows that going to work? Surely this was Northern Ireland because of its unique status only, not Ireland or Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-549...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 19:13

Not according to a poster a page or 2 back

[Mark8815]

Worth about a fiver in a few years?

[Gman20]

Gman20 said:

Deep Thought said:

Hows that going to work? Surely this was Northern Ireland because of its unique status only, not Ireland or Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-549...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 19:13

Not according to a poster a page or 2 back

Vat on anything going from mainland GB to northern Ireland could really limit people's choice in NI, especially if those in the republic that have been importing from all UK still want to import what they can from NI

[irish boy]

Couple of m2 comps went up just sub 40 this week both gone in a day.

[Macron]

irish boy said:

Couple of m2 comps went up just sub 40 this week both gone in a day.

For those of us who don't spend all day looking, is that good or bad price wise?

[irish boy]

Macron said:

For those of us who don't spend all day looking, is that good or bad price wise?

There was a couple priced similarly last summer at the same dealer but they sat for a few weeks at that stage.

[nickfrog]

A couple of M2C in Feb at £37995 AUC.

[Deep Thought]

irish boy said:

Couple of m2 comps went up just sub 40 this week both gone in a day.

I assume you mean here in NI, rather than nationally. They werent gone in a day but they did sell in a week or so.

There are M2Cs on the mainland now from under £38K, and one under £37K.

This is the cheapest one i've seen so far....

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202011166...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 22:10

[Deep Thought]

nickfrog said:

A couple of M2C in Feb at £37995 AUC.

Will be interesting to see what happens this year with them as a lot will be coming off 3 year PCP deals.

[james_zy]

I don’t know I believe that prices have increased all that much across the board.

The amount of cars for sale seems to have dropped and asking prices have increased, but sale prices seem like pre COVID levels to me (by looking at sold prices on eBay)

[irish boy]

Deep Thought said:

I assume you mean here in NI, rather than nationally. They werent gone in a day but they did sell in a week or so.

There are M2Cs on the mainland now from under £38K, and one under £37K.

This is the cheapest one i've seen so far....

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202011166...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 22:10

I must have just seen them after they had been on a few days then. Yeah sub 40 is nothing new, they were that last year as well auc, in fact there were more available then than there is now, I was just pointing out the demand is still there.

[Deep Thought]

irish boy said:

I must have just seen them after they had been on a few days then. Yeah sub 40 is nothing new, they were that last year as well auc, in fact there were more available then than there is now, I was just pointing out the demand is still there.

Agreed.

[havoc]

I think the answer is used car prices WILL be hit in 2021, but not because of Covid...

- Irish thing as mentioned above
- Fewer people buying as they've decided, given the economic ststorm we've just had, to sit on what they've got. Those in PCP/Lease deals will in the main roll them over unless they can't afford to.
- Partly offset by lower new car sales as well, perhaps.


Covid will just reduce the number of transactions taking place. Whether that changes the value up or down depends on the seller/buyer balance at each level of the market.

greenarrow said:

Looking at the Used Car market just now, is it me, or does there appear to be more value in 3-4 year old cars than 7-10 year old ones?

Example, you can pick up a 3 year old current shape Fiesta ecoboost for around the £8K mark. A 7 year old one however will still be advertised for around the £4-£5K mark. The newer one seems better value to me than the 7 year old one with 60-70K mile on it.

Two reasons:-
1) There's been too many lease and PCP deals over the last 5/6 years - so at 3 years there's a glut on the market.
2) This latest gen of cars (Ecoboost notably) are being considered less reliable / more expensive to fix than the previous gen. Emissions regs largely to blame. So people who have a choice are going back to the older engines, as a rule.

[swanseaboydan]

One thing that I was wondering, if there will be an import duty on foreign cars then expensive cars ( eg Ferraris from italy) could be worth slightly more post brexit if they were in the uk before any import duties were levied ? So maybe worth hanging on to a car if the replacement is going to have a import duty levied on it ? Just wondering

[Deep Thought]

Gman20 said:

Deep Thought said:

Hows that going to work? Surely this was Northern Ireland because of its unique status only, not Ireland or Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-549...

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 6th January 19:13

Not according to a poster a page or 2 back

There was talk of it around November as per the link, not sure what they did in the final agreement.

Wide ranging implications IF it did go through - ALL used goods exported out of the UK by a trader of any sort subject to full UK VAT on the way out? That wont just apply to cars it'll be everything - clocks, watches, any sort of goods. I cant even see how that would be managed?

[Court_S]

Deep Thought said:

nickfrog said:

A couple of M2C in Feb at £37995 AUC.

Will be interesting to see what happens this year with them as a lot will be coming off 3 year PCP deals.

And hopefully that’ll have an impact on the OG’s. £28k feels strong money for a five year old AUC M2.