Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[AlexNJ89]

JAMSXR said:

We’re overdue a financial crisis. It will be another blip in the grand scheme of things. Calm down dear.

As much as it would cause me a lot of pain, I'd welcome one to cut a lot of the extra fat we have around.

My mates work in marketing and spend most of their time doing social causes campaigns and chasing awards than actually creating marketing strategies which actually sell the product. People have all felt very comfortable this last few years.

[ghost83]

Also don’t forget what will happen to values as more manufacturers turn to electric only! A lot of manufacturers are going full electric by 2024/2025 so those getting into 3/4/5yr finance now! As electric takes over values are going to clearly plunge anyway on “mainstream” cars

The next 3yrs are going to be very interesting to watch imo!

[Backtobasics]

av185 said:

Even low rent new gas guzzlers continue their upward trajectory, in this case up a whopping 7 percent.

Russian car sales down 78% in April - where do those cars now go? 1.57 million cars pa

All electric sales up 60% in the US (tesla makes up a lot of that and have largely avoided supply chain issues but Tesla’s prices have gone up around 33% in 12 months)

Average Uk prices in Q1 -4% in the used market. Focus / Fiesta down nearly 10% - why is that ?

Average people will just get priced out of the market it’s that simple, especially when inflation really kicks in during Oct-Apr So prices have to drop.

People with money will always be fine.

[av185]

ghost83 said:

Also don’t forget what will happen to values as more manufacturers turn to electric only! A lot of manufacturers are going full electric by 2024/2025 so those getting into 3/4/5yr finance now! As electric takes over values are going to clearly plunge anyway on “mainstream” cars

The next 3yrs are going to be very interesting to watch imo!

You clearly still don't understand the market you have been saying this ad infinitum since the start of this thread and the opposite has happened.

Its like those repeatedly banging on about and always predicting the stock market or housing crash its bound to happen at some point but the majority of times they are wrong.

I've mentioned this before look at dieselgate many predicted the crash of used diesel values ££ but exactly the opposite happened the number of new diesels ordered fell which throttled used diesel supplies and caused residuals to rise. Many diesels still outsell their petrol equivalents on the used car market.

Exactly the same will broadly happen as increasing numbers of new hybrids then electric cars replace new ICE. As usual some cars will do better than others residually.

Try and understand new car demand is not the same as used car demand.

[jimPH]

Backtobasics said:

av185 said:

Even low rent new gas guzzlers continue their upward trajectory, in this case up a whopping 7 percent.

Russian car sales down 78% in April - where do those cars now go? 1.57 million cars pa

All electric sales up 60% in the US (tesla makes up a lot of that and have largely avoided supply chain issues but Tesla’s prices have gone up around 33% in 12 months)

Average Uk prices in Q1 -4% in the used market. Focus / Fiesta down nearly 10% - why is that ?

Average people will just get priced out of the market it’s that simple, especially when inflation really kicks in during Oct-Apr So prices have to drop.

People with money will always be fine.

People with more money just have more to lose.

[ghost83]

av185 said:

You clearly still don't understand the market you have been saying this ad infinitum since the start of this thread and the opposite has happened.

Its like those repeatedly banging on about and always predicting the stock market or housing crash its bound to happen at some point but the majority of times they are wrong.

I've mentioned this before look at dieselgate many predicted the crash of used diesel values ££ but exactly the opposite happened the number of new diesels ordered fell which throttled used diesel supplies and caused residuals to rise. Many diesels still outsell their petrol equivalents on the used car market.

Exactly the same will broadly happen as increasing numbers of new hybrids then electric cars replace new ICE. As usual some cars will do better than others residually.

Try and understand new car demand is not the same as used car demand.

So we are heading into this recession and cost of living crisis and you think residuals are going to carry on rising? Not a chance!

I predicted values would plummet and at the beginning of the pandemic they did initially but now due to the supply chain they’ve risen but that isn’t going to happen long term

[av185]

ghost83 said:

av185 said:

You clearly still don't understand the market you have been saying this ad infinitum since the start of this thread and the opposite has happened.

Its like those repeatedly banging on about and always predicting the stock market or housing crash its bound to happen at some point but the majority of times they are wrong.

I've mentioned this before look at dieselgate many predicted the crash of used diesel values ££ but exactly the opposite happened the number of new diesels ordered fell which throttled used diesel supplies and caused residuals to rise. Many diesels still outsell their petrol equivalents on the used car market.

Exactly the same will broadly happen as increasing numbers of new hybrids then electric cars replace new ICE. As usual some cars will do better than others residually.

Try and understand new car demand is not the same as used car demand.

So we are heading into this recession and cost of living crisis and you think residuals are going to carry on rising? Not a chance!

I predicted values would plummet and at the beginning of the pandemic they did initially but now due to the supply chain they’ve risen but that isn’t going to happen long term

They did initially? Understatement. Used values have risen more than initially infact since covid fluctuating then every month broadly throughout 2021 model dependent and rises are currently continuing supported by posts across this and other used car threads.

Please try and understand the supply chain issues and rising componentry prices are not a quick fix. This will take years to sort. Also factor in declining sales of new ice cars over the next few years and rising prices across the board and the net result will be robust then continuing rising values of used cars. Those priced out of tge new car market will be forced to buy used with the consequential effect on supporting prices particularly late used.

As previously posted the days of huge used car depreciation in the UK really is and will continue to be a thing of the past.

[Fast Bug]

av185 said:

As previously posted the days of huge used car depreciation in the UK really is and will continue to be a thing of the past.

They'll be back. A mix of low consumer confidence and manufacturers resolving supply chain issues will mean that supply will be higher than demand at some stage. That means manufacturers will start discounting heavily again and the market will return to its former state.

It won't be a quick process, but it will happen

[ghost83]

av185 said:

They did initially? Understatement. Used values have risen more than initially infact since covid fluctuating then every month broadly throughout 2021 model dependent and rises are currently continuing supported by posts across this and other used car threads.

Please try and understand the supply chain issues and rising componentry prices are not a quick fix. This will take years to sort. Also factor in declining sales of new ice cars over the next few years and rising prices across the board and the net result will be robust then continuing rising values of used cars. Those priced out of tge new car market will be forced to buy used with the consequential effect on supporting prices particularly late used.

As previously posted the days of huge used car depreciation in the UK really is and will continue to be a thing of the past.

Sorry but I don’t agree! As people struggle and have less money they’re not going to carry on paying over the odds for cars! Used cars will have to drop discounts will have to be offered when the supply chain catches up!

[Macron]

av185 said:

As previously posted the days of huge used car depreciation in the UK really is and will continue to be a thing of the past.

In your opinion. Your opinion is not fact. You do seem to struggle to understand that.

av185 said:

Those priced out of tge new car market will be forced to buy used with the consequential effect on supporting prices particularly late used.

Actually no, as very very few people HAVE to buy cars. People may WANT to buy cars, but very few indeed have to. So they won't be forced to do anything. Many will "stick" with what they have. We've seen in the past few pages people coming out of deals to find the new equivalent is a lot more. They won't all buy again. They won't all buy something else. That's my opinion. I understand that.

[MaxFromage]

Macron said:

Actually no, as very very few people HAVE to buy cars. People may WANT to buy cars, but very few indeed have to. So they won't be forced to do anything. Many will "stick" with what they have. We've seen in the past few pages people coming out of deals to find the new equivalent is a lot more. They won't all buy again. They won't all buy something else. That's my opinion. I understand that.

Indeed. I know a few who are fed up with waiting lists and are sticking with their (really old) sub 3 yr old motors for now. Inflation and wage pressures are adding to that. As the market stagnates, the tide is likely to turn on prices.

[carparkno1]

MaxFromage said:

Macron said:

Actually no, as very very few people HAVE to buy cars. People may WANT to buy cars, but very few indeed have to. So they won't be forced to do anything. Many will "stick" with what they have. We've seen in the past few pages people coming out of deals to find the new equivalent is a lot more. They won't all buy again. They won't all buy something else. That's my opinion. I understand that.

Indeed. I know a few who are fed up with waiting lists and are sticking with their (really old) sub 3 yr old motors for now. Inflation and wage pressures are adding to that. As the market stagnates, the tide is likely to turn on prices.

I handed back my 440i 15 months ago due to lack of use and have been running a 10yr old A3 since then, which has done less than 2000 miles in that time. Now I'm back to the office a couple of days a week I wanted a Cupra but the prices are ridiculous so I'm sitting tight for another six months at least. A lot of my neighbours are paying the balloon on their pcp and keeping cars they would normally swap out for new. It's a sea of 68/19 plate Qashqai out there lol

[ghost83]

carparkno1 said:

I handed back my 440i 15 months ago due to lack of use and have been running a 10yr old A3 since then, which has done less than 2000 miles in that time. Now I'm back to the office a couple of days a week I wanted a Cupra but the prices are ridiculous so I'm sitting tight for another six months at least. A lot of my neighbours are paying the balloon on their pcp and keeping cars they would normally swap out for new. It's a sea of 68/19 plate Qashqai out there lol

My wife is also holding off on replacing her car, she would rather make do

[Vroomer]

ghost83 said:

Also don’t forget what will happen to values as more manufacturers turn to electric only! A lot of manufacturers are going full electric by 2024/2025 so those getting into 3/4/5yr finance now! As electric takes over values are going to clearly plunge anyway on “mainstream” cars

Or maybe just the opposite.

There will always be those who prefer ICE to EV, so ICE might surge as used supply diminishes.

[Crusoe]

Personal opinion of the current market, big split between those doing well and those being hit by increased costs. Lots of new electric cars, small diesel swapped for petrol, larger diesel kept rather than upgrading, fun weekend cars still in demand for nicely maintained but softening for hot hatches and larger engined family cars.

Keeping an eye on hothatch prices, seeing a lot more advertised locally with an increasing gap to dealer priced similar stock in the 10k to 15k price range. A few showing up to a third less as private buys, usually with brakes and tyres or a big service due that they maybe can't afford, or overall price pressure starting to have an impact on their need to sell faster.

Still a spike in people swapping boring daily drivers for sports cars as they are permanently working from home and emissions zones coming in for a lot of cities will already be starting to warp prices for certain types of car.

The largest group is still holding off purchase of their next cars till the new office work normal is defined, one day a week in the office is probably not sustainable but such a hot jobs market that managers can't push people to come back or they will move on to somewhere offering more flexibility. Traffic volumes seem to be increasing and reports of commuter trains getting back to standing room only.

Those that did a lot of miles in diesels holding on to their older cars and waiting to see what happens with electric car ranges and prices.

[Venisonpie]

I'm now in the market for a late SL63 AMG, my take is to wait until after summer for obvious reasons. However I think they will also fall into the out of date big engined dump that is likely to suffer generally which makes it tricky to know when to jump.

All the time I'm not driving it which is no fun...

[av185]

Macron said:

Actually no, as very very few people HAVE to buy cars. People may WANT to buy cars, but very few indeed have to. So they won't be forced to do anything. Many will "stick" with what they have.

Unconvincing.

[stevemcs]

Vroomer said:

Or maybe just the opposite.

There will always be those who prefer ICE to EV, so ICE might surge as used supply diminishes.

That will be me …. I’ve not seen any ev that’s capable of towing 1200kg, is an estate and less than 8k. I have no intention of financing or buying some oversized suv. I do wish I could get out of diesel though and would happily consider an electric car if it met my requirements - although I have put a deposit on a Citroen Ami.

[nickfrog]

Vroomer said:

Or maybe just the opposite.

There will always be those who prefer ICE to EV, so ICE might surge as used supply diminishes.

I have kind of gambled for that to happen too with our current cars. Or I simply can't find anything non ICE that worked for our needs, yet.

[ghost83]

Vroomer said:

Or maybe just the opposite.

There will always be those who prefer ICE to EV, so ICE might surge as used supply diminishes.

There will but look at what the majority will be doing,

Out there on the roads what percentage of new cars are fleet vehicles?
I’d say a large proportion!

What percentage are the pcp’ers that are stuck in the pcp cycle and will have to replace every 3-4yrs?
Again I’d say that’s a large portion

Motability cars again every 3 yrs a large proportion

Whereas private buyers I’d say it’s a smaller percentage and petrolheads are an even smaller percentage

So when manufacturers do away with ice cars the only ppl affected rly are the private buyers and petrol heads because whatever car they’re looking to trade in the dealers won’t give a good trade in price in my opinion!


How many