Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

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Discussion

911hope

3,572 posts

41 months

Monday 10th April 2023
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
And a bunch of cheaper, nearly new EVs is going to tempt a lot of buyers away from nearly new ICE cars, especially thirsty ones. Once they start having to discount new cars then I suspect used ICE prices will return promptly to where they were already heading back in 2019. I'm slightly annoyed to be looking now as I do believe the landscape this time next year for interesting, used ICE is going to be back on track. frown
I hope you are correct.

DonkeyApple

62,629 posts

184 months

Monday 10th April 2023
quotequote all
911hope said:
DonkeyApple said:
And a bunch of cheaper, nearly new EVs is going to tempt a lot of buyers away from nearly new ICE cars, especially thirsty ones. Once they start having to discount new cars then I suspect used ICE prices will return promptly to where they were already heading back in 2019. I'm slightly annoyed to be looking now as I do believe the landscape this time next year for interesting, used ICE is going to be back on track. frown
I hope you are correct.
Without some artificial intervention to manipulate the market it has to be the case that a drop in prices in one segment to pull in buyers will be removing potential buyers from another segment all things being equal.

The EV market doesn't exist in isolation so if these are being discounted to get them off forecourts then they're going to be taking buyers away from the stuff that U.K. consumers typically switch to EV from which one imagines is most commonly premium German stuff?

The number of used Model 3 cars coming off lease deals is obviously only growing and they're getting discounted along with the new ones. Tesla has started an EV price war that against European manufacturers of EVs it can't lose as its margins are better as is its brand power.

The used Model 3 is a superb prospect for someone on the cusp of switching from mid sized, performance ICE cars among those with money and driveways. Just that EV alone is going to be taking buyers away from the used mid range, premium ICE market.

And by next year it's inconceivable that without a government stimulus for the car market the sellers of new mid range, premium ICE are going to have to discount to take buyers from each other. Their supply in increasing and demand is falling at both ends, firstly the completely normal demand dump that happens when disposable income in a market declines and buyers drop themselves down the ladder by going smaller, older, lessor brands or not doing anything but this time there's a new competitor in town, the EV that is taking buyers away who aren't experiencing any falls in disposable income and crucially, the EV market has the backing of the State, it will be underpinned by taxpayer money, the borrowing of future taxpayer's receipts or the printing of money.

New ICE is a free market, the U.K. govt isn't going to step in to support it. Conversely, the EV market isn't, it's a command economy underpinned and backed by the State with not just cash but legislation. If demand for cars at this level falls this simple disparity implies that almost all of the demand drop would be borne by the ICE market as it is the largest but also it is not manipulated, backed or promoted by the State. At the same time the typical potential EV buyer has a driveway, a suitable lifestyle and is the demographic least likely to be impacted by any cost of living squeeze or lack of salary inflation etc.

911hope

3,572 posts

41 months

Monday 10th April 2023
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
911hope said:
DonkeyApple said:
And a bunch of cheaper, nearly new EVs is going to tempt a lot of buyers away from nearly new ICE cars, especially thirsty ones. Once they start having to discount new cars then I suspect used ICE prices will return promptly to where they were already heading back in 2019. I'm slightly annoyed to be looking now as I do believe the landscape this time next year for interesting, used ICE is going to be back on track. frown
I hope you are correct.
Without some artificial intervention to manipulate the market it has to be the case that a drop in prices in one segment to pull in buyers will be removing potential buyers from another segment all things being equal.

The EV market doesn't exist in isolation so if these are being discounted to get them off forecourts then they're going to be taking buyers away from the stuff that U.K. consumers typically switch to EV from which one imagines is most commonly premium German stuff?

The number of used Model 3 cars coming off lease deals is obviously only growing and they're getting discounted along with the new ones. Tesla has started an EV price war that against European manufacturers of EVs it can't lose as its margins are better as is its brand power.

The used Model 3 is a superb prospect for someone on the cusp of switching from mid sized, performance ICE cars among those with money and driveways. Just that EV alone is going to be taking buyers away from the used mid range, premium ICE market.

And by next year it's inconceivable that without a government stimulus for the car market the sellers of new mid range, premium ICE are going to have to discount to take buyers from each other. Their supply in increasing and demand is falling at both ends, firstly the completely normal demand dump that happens when disposable income in a market declines and buyers drop themselves down the ladder by going smaller, older, lessor brands or not doing anything but this time there's a new competitor in town, the EV that is taking buyers away who aren't experiencing any falls in disposable income and crucially, the EV market has the backing of the State, it will be underpinned by taxpayer money, the borrowing of future taxpayer's receipts or the printing of money.

New ICE is a free market, the U.K. govt isn't going to step in to support it. Conversely, the EV market isn't, it's a command economy underpinned and backed by the State with not just cash but legislation. If demand for cars at this level falls this simple disparity implies that almost all of the demand drop would be borne by the ICE market as it is the largest but also it is not manipulated, backed or promoted by the State. At the same time the typical potential EV buyer has a driveway, a suitable lifestyle and is the demographic least likely to be impacted by any cost of living squeeze or lack of salary inflation etc.
Sound reasoning.

Vroomer

1,873 posts

195 months

Tuesday 11th April 2023
quotequote all
This thread has now been running for over three years, spread across nearly 900 pages. There's probably market insight buried in here somewhere!

anonymous-user

69 months

Tuesday 11th April 2023
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
This thread has now been running for over three years, spread across nearly 900 pages. There's probably market insight buried in here somewhere!
I am sure there are people who bought a brand new car three years ago who can sell them for pretty much what they paid for them.


anonymous-user

69 months

Wednesday 12th April 2023
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
Vroomer said:
This thread has now been running for over three years, spread across nearly 900 pages. There's probably market insight buried in here somewhere!
I am sure there are people who bought a brand new car three years ago who can sell them for pretty much what they paid for them.
Just wasn't the one I bought.

Pommy

14,421 posts

231 months

Wednesday 12th April 2023
quotequote all
Niponeoff said:
Joey Deacon said:
Vroomer said:
This thread has now been running for over three years, spread across nearly 900 pages. There's probably market insight buried in here somewhere!
I am sure there are people who bought a brand new car three years ago who can sell them for pretty much what they paid for them.
Just wasn't the one I bought.
Bit of detail might aid the discussion...

G-wiz

2,682 posts

41 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/used-e...


Recent Autocar article citing pending collapse of used EV values.

Kerniki

2,889 posts

36 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
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Pending?

Errr ship sailed on that one i think.

Hippea

2,520 posts

84 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
I don’t keep track of these things but couldn’t believe how cheap BMW i3s are, why?

Fusion777

2,461 posts

63 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Hippea said:
I don’t keep track of these things but couldn’t believe how cheap BMW i3s are, why?
Just looked and 2020 models start from £13.5k. They're just normal levels of depreciation returning, really. Plus, it's a 10 year old model now with fairly limited range.

mike13

737 posts

197 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Keeping an eye on petrol Corsa prices, up pops an electric one with 5k on the clock, 20 plate for just under £14,000. No good to me but I think they're about £32k new now.

Hippea

2,520 posts

84 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Fusion777 said:
Hippea said:
I don’t keep track of these things but couldn’t believe how cheap BMW i3s are, why?
Just looked and 2020 models start from £13.5k. They're just normal levels of depreciation returning, really. Plus, it's a 10 year old model now with fairly limited range.
Compare that to anything else of similar age and price when new, they have dropped significantly

Sheepshanks

37,170 posts

134 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Hippea said:
Fusion777 said:
Hippea said:
I don’t keep track of these things but couldn’t believe how cheap BMW i3s are, why?
Just looked and 2020 models start from £13.5k. They're just normal levels of depreciation returning, really. Plus, it's a 10 year old model now with fairly limited range.
Compare that to anything else of similar age and price when new, they have dropped significantly
Well, there’s one at that price and they climb pretty rapidly and top out towards £30K.

I suppose it’s going to be affected by going out of production- although that could work either way.

spreadsheet monkey

4,583 posts

242 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Hippea said:
I don’t keep track of these things but couldn’t believe how cheap BMW i3s are, why?
Weird looking, lots of electrical/battery problems, and hard to fix the bodywork.

PH buying guide from 2021 here:

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-buying-guides/...

This section didn’t fill me with confidence!

“BMW came up with a new method of painting for the CFRP panels which used 70 per cent less water and 50 per cent less energy than that required for conventional steel panel painting, which was great, but body part replacement costs could be punitive. One journo offloaded his REx after being asked for £800 for a new door mirror, the old one having lost its folding and indicator functions. Apparently fitting the new one required the door to be dismantled. It is interesting to note how many damaged i3s there are floating around on eBay.

0a

24,013 posts

209 months

Saturday 12th August 2023
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
This thread has now been running for over three years, spread across nearly 900 pages. There's probably market insight buried in here somewhere!
Probably the source and any answer chatgpt will give you!

G-wiz

2,682 posts

41 months

Friday 5th January 2024
quotequote all
Not coronavirus related as such, just wondering how much margin the dealer has to allow a £4200 price drop (9%).
Are they still making a profit on the car after lopping £4200 off the asking price?

Dg504

319 posts

178 months

Friday 5th January 2024
quotequote all
This Tesla is in no man’s land

No one is going to buy it as a co car for cheap bik

No one is going to shell out or finance £42k of their money for an old Tesla

Is there a stat for how many (expensive) EVs have been bought privately? Must be miniscule

swisstoni

19,878 posts

294 months

Friday 5th January 2024
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I wouldn’t have though Ludicrous is the sort of name to warm the cockles of insurance bean counters either.

spreadsheet monkey

4,583 posts

242 months

Saturday 6th January 2024
quotequote all
G-wiz said:
Not coronavirus related as such, just wondering how much margin the dealer has to allow a £4200 price drop (9%).
Are they still making a profit on the car after lopping £4200 off the asking price?
I would imagine Teslas (especially new-ish ones) are probably similar to Range Rovers in that the spread between retail and trade-in price is massive.

It was probably optimistically priced to start off with. I’m too lazy to type that registration number into WBAC but I bet they’d offer a lot less than £40k.

A beast of a car though, if EVs are your bag. Massive performance and big range as well.