911 Carrera S (992) availability

911 Carrera S (992) availability

Author
Discussion

esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Saturday 3rd September
quotequote all
Pivo said:
Many stock brokers like/have/had 911s… it’s not irrelevant.
Entirely irrelevant to the IPO valuation other than to demonstrate how familiar everyone already is with the 911.

An updated 992 is a given and a known. It won't remotely move the needle because it's already priced in. News regarding currently unknown models / plans for future EVs etc might.

How do you imagine a 992.2.is going to change anybody's perception of and valuation of Porsche? Do you think investors will be surprised when it's announced? Wow, an updated 992, didn't see that coming, buy, buy, buy those shares! There's an aromatic cup of coffee waiting for you over here ------->

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Sunday 4th September
quotequote all
If it was about profits only, 911 would have been discontinued some time ago.

IPO is about selling the vision, while delivering solid profits. The 911 is an integral part of creating a legend with ‘halo’ car that defies gravity with every new iteration.

While accountants are happy with Macan and Cayenne driving profits, the engineers continue to drive innovation and make a supercar actually usable for every day driving.

EVs are very important, but very few fund managers get excited about “appliances on 21” wheels”


esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Sunday 4th September
quotequote all
The point you are missing is that a 992.2 would not be new information for investors. Everybody knows it is coming. It is already priced into the company valuation. Plans for other models like unannounced EVs are far less clear, so announcements in that area you might argue could have an impact. There is no argument for the fully known, totally inevitable and entirely priced in 911 facelift having an impact.

And the 911 is a very profitable model line, so yes it would still exist if it was all about money. As, in fact, it very much is all about money!

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Sunday 4th September
quotequote all
Since you are responding to my note, it appears that you are missing the point… LOL

Quant analysis are done, distributed to potential investors and 992.2 is already in the forecasted numbers.

Now, it’s all about market sentiment and investors willing to buy the stock at potential $85B valuation. For that we need good news and a bit of hype. And let’s face it EV’s are not as exciting as modern classic fossil fuel drive.

Cheib

21,513 posts

157 months

Sunday 4th September
quotequote all
Pivo said:
If it was about profits only, 911 would have been discontinued some time ago.

IPO is about selling the vision, while delivering solid profits. The 911 is an integral part of creating a legend with ‘halo’ car that defies gravity with every new iteration.

While accountants are happy with Macan and Cayenne driving profits, the engineers continue to drive innovation and make a supercar actually usable for every day driving.

EVs are very important, but very few fund managers get excited about “appliances on 21” wheels”
Porsche margins were circa 15% per car. Why do you think the 911 would have been discontinued if it was about profits ? If you look at 911 volumes by model you'll soon see that Porsche sell a huge amount of their high end high margin 911's and also the era of turbocharging has made the car more profitable. The GTS no longer has an engine with a Powerkit and a larger displacement than the base Carrera...same turbocharged 3.0 but the car is £25k more expensive. Yes it has nicer trim, bigger wheels etc but the marginal cost of slapping some bigger wheels on a GTS vs a Carrera's smaller wheels is probably small three figure sum. Turbo S is £90k more than a Carrera....gone are the days of the Turbo having its own wide body....so that's a massive saving.

Porsche won't be making 15% 0n 911's...it will be much more.

911 is a cash cow.

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Sunday 4th September
quotequote all
Cheib said:
Porsche margins were circa 15% per car. Why do you think the 911 would have been discontinued if it was about profits ? If you look at 911 volumes by model you'll soon see that Porsche sell a huge amount of their high end high margin 911's and also the era of turbocharging has made the car more profitable. The GTS no longer has an engine with a Powerkit and a larger displacement than the base Carrera...same turbocharged 3.0 but the car is £25k more expensive. Yes it has nicer trim, bigger wheels etc but the marginal cost of slapping some bigger wheels on a GTS vs a Carrera's smaller wheels is probably small three figure sum. Turbo S is £90k more than a Carrera....gone are the days of the Turbo having its own wide body....so that's a massive saving.

Porsche won't be making 15% 0n 911's...it will be much more.

911 is a cash cow.
I take my comment back… I was wrong!

I recall in 1980’s and 90’s when Porsche used to have large variability of parts, no sharing of platforms and continuously growing cost base. M&A with VAG helped Porsche consolidate and share platforms.
Today Porsche is one of the most profitable car companies, hence the IPO.

MC99

390 posts

168 months

Tuesday 6th September
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for example in '21 - 911 Turbo adds 94,000 euros-a-car EBITDA contribution, Turbo S gives a 58% margin vs 56% for a Turbo S cab

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Tuesday 6th September
quotequote all
MC99 said:
for example in '21 - 911 Turbo adds 94,000 euros-a-car EBITDA contribution, Turbo S gives a 58% margin vs 56% for a Turbo S cab
I wonder what is the profit after depreciation & amortisation.

politeperson

393 posts

163 months

Tuesday 6th September
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The best 992 is the basic C2 @ around £90k. It is the 911 model that makes Porsche the least profit. They do not want to sell it.

The rest of the 911 range are text book examples of £diminishing returns v the power of marketing over the mind of the young man.
Unless you are into track racing.


esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Tuesday 6th September
quotequote all
politeperson said:
The best 992 is the basic C2 @ around £90k. It is the 911 model that makes Porsche the least profit. They do not want to sell it.

The rest of the 911 range are text book examples of £diminishing returns v the power of marketing over the mind of the young man.
Unless you are into track racing.
Historically, they have even made very good money on the base 911.

Go back to, say, the 9x1.1 generation, you have the base 911 with a 3.4 engine and the 981 S with exactly the same engine on the same platform, just a slightly different engine and transmission layout, some exterior panel changes and an extra link on the rear axle etc. No way they are selling the 981 3.4 at a loss, they'll be making decent money on that, so they'll be making stellar money on the 991 3.4. Hell. the 981 Boxster might have been more costly to make if you factor the roof in. Or not. But the 991 certainly won't have been much more if any more expensive to make.

Porsche would obviously rather you bought a more upscale 992. But I bet most manufacturers would kill for the margin on even the base 992.

Not so sure about the diminishing returns. If you like an NA engine and manual box, £90,000 is one heck of a lot of money to pay for a car that doesn't tick some basic boxes. Meanwhile, the GT3 is £135k, which if you ask me is stellar value given the hardware you get. A 35-40ish percent premium is very good in return for what you get. The catch is obviously getting an allocation. But that is not the car's fault and the reality is that all of the GT3s that exist do actually sell for the quoted price. That's how much the cars sell for to those who buy them new (plus options obviously).

f1ten

2,089 posts

135 months

Wednesday 7th September
quotequote all
Agree Cheib yes 911 is a money spinner for sure. As some have said I expect a big increase in base price as Mercedes has flanked the 911 with the new SL 4 cylinder costing 108k base price... So there is room for the base Carrera to go up in list price sadly.



Cheib said:
Pivo said:
If it was about profits only, 911 would have been discontinued some time ago.

IPO is about selling the vision, while delivering solid profits. The 911 is an integral part of creating a legend with ‘halo’ car that defies gravity with every new iteration.

While accountants are happy with Macan and Cayenne driving profits, the engineers continue to drive innovation and make a supercar actually usable for every day driving.

EVs are very important, but very few fund managers get excited about “appliances on 21” wheels”
Porsche margins were circa 15% per car. Why do you think the 911 would have been discontinued if it was about profits ? If you look at 911 volumes by model you'll soon see that Porsche sell a huge amount of their high end high margin 911's and also the era of turbocharging has made the car more profitable. The GTS no longer has an engine with a Powerkit and a larger displacement than the base Carrera...same turbocharged 3.0 but the car is £25k more expensive. Yes it has nicer trim, bigger wheels etc but the marginal cost of slapping some bigger wheels on a GTS vs a Carrera's smaller wheels is probably small three figure sum. Turbo S is £90k more than a Carrera....gone are the days of the Turbo having its own wide body....so that's a massive saving.

Porsche won't be making 15% 0n 911's...it will be much more.

911 is a cash cow.

MC99

390 posts

168 months

Wednesday 7th September
quotequote all
f1ten said:
Porsche enjoyed Fezza-esque Ebitda margins of over 30% before it was part of VW Group and traded on about 6-7x 2006 EV/Ebitda which puts a 60-80Bn Euro for their 12.5% freefloat IPO, seems Porsche's July 18 investor day confirmed a near 30% ambition too

MC99

390 posts

168 months

Wednesday 7th September
quotequote all
Pivo said:
I wonder what is the profit after depreciation & amortisation.
overall net cashflow margin for '21 - 12.1% across the brand...

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Thursday 8th September
quotequote all
Standardization enhances profitability as expensive components get amortized across larger number of produced units. The 718 folding roof mentioned above is not an issue, as it is the same part across the range.

Bespoke parts used to drag Porsche profitability and that is where VW accountants ‘came to the rescue’. E.g. my Macan S has Audi S4 motor, with some tweaks and Q5 floor pan, massively reducing R&D cost. 911 doesn’t have VAG siblings, so R&D cannot be amortized across the group.

In my mind EBITDA shows how efficient is the sourcing and production, which is spectacular, but it hides the R&D, engineering, testing and other expensive elements that are differentiators for Porsche.

esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Thursday 8th September
quotequote all
Pivo said:
Standardization enhances profitability as expensive components get amortized across larger number of produced units. The 718 folding roof mentioned above is not an issue, as it is the same part across the range.
718 roof is unique to the 718 and a completely different part to that of the 911. It will certainly add cost. Whereas, when the Cayster and 911 were aligned, much of the body in white / monocoque was shared, much of the interior shared, all the electronics shared, engines shared, entire front axle shared etc.

Latest 911 no longer built on a common architecture with the Cayster, as the latter has not been updated, which probably hurts margins a bit, albeit they haven't had to invest in updating the Cayster, so that's a load of cash they've retained. Also, the 992 is probably a revised 991 underneath rather than an all-new platform. And 911 volumes typically a lot higher than Cayster volumes. Getting on for double these days. So, probably a bit more viable as a stand alone model.

Pivo

Original Poster:

274 posts

17 months

Friday 9th September
quotequote all
esotericar said:
718 roof is unique to the 718 and a completely different part to that of the 911. It will certainly add cost. Whereas, when the Cayster and 911 were aligned, much of the body in white / monocoque was shared, much of the interior shared, all the electronics shared, engines shared, entire front axle shared etc.

Latest 911 no longer built on a common architecture with the Cayster, as the latter has not been updated, which probably hurts margins a bit, albeit they haven't had to invest in updating the Cayster, so that's a load of cash they've retained. Also, the 992 is probably a revised 991 underneath rather than an all-new platform. And 911 volumes typically a lot higher than Cayster volumes. Getting on for double these days. So, probably a bit more viable as a stand alone model.
We agree for a change. I meant one folding roof, amortized across Boxster model range. As opposed to 2.0L + 2.5L + 4.0L motors, which drive variability & cost. Although the 4.0L motor is shared with 911, which is great for the enthusiasts and the cost. Very cool IMO.


esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Friday 9th September
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4.0l motor is only in the 718.

MK911

47 posts

53 months

Saturday 10th September
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Same 4.0L motor is in the GT3 - just tuned up further to 500hp.

esotericar

573 posts

9 months

Saturday 10th September
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MK911 said:
Same 4.0L motor is in the GT3 - just tuned up further to 500hp.
It's not the same motor, just shares displacement. The basic architecture is obviously the same. But then so is a 2.7 lump in a 981 or the engines in 987.2 and 997.2 Carreras. All the flat sixes made today are ultimately derived from the 9A1 circa 2008. So, that isn't really hugely consequential given all the differences.

MK911

47 posts

53 months

Monday 12th September
quotequote all
I stand corrected, I was told this by the service chap at my dealer when I was talking to him about the 718 GTS. Mind you he wasn’t the mechanic just front desk.,

Anyway my C2S finally went to V260 status last week so I am just waiting to hear when it completes production.
Properly excited after all the waiting and delays!