Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[off_again]

JPJPJP said:

Here’s what the article says about the permit

Cruise, which is majority owned by General Motors Co GM.N and counts Honda Motor Co Ltd 7267.T and SoftBank Group 9984.T as investors, has been testing 180 self-driving cars in San Francisco with a safety driver behind the wheel, and the permit allows five of those cars to roam empty.

So the may be 5 driverless (and passengerless i.e. empty) cruise vehicles sometime soon

Keep a look out!

Not picking on you, but did the article mention where in SF? Downtown? Wider city? Or a wider California?

Trust me, driving around downtown Palo Alto (Waymo) is relatively easy with a pretty straightforward grid system. Head out to some of the newer built areas such as Mountain House and its even easier. But SF? Driving around the city itself is a nightmare - bus lanes, cycle lanes, one-way systems and nightmare drivers. And thats before you mention the almost constant road works!!!!

There was an article about Uber testing in SF with their system a couple of years ago - broke the law 5 times in the first mile and nearly ran over a cyclist..... yeah, they stopped very quickly and withdrew.

Seen Cruise, Waymo and the trucks at Moffett Field. Its impressive stuff. The Waymo Pacifica's and Lexus's are pretty good drivers, but is that the system or the driver?

[off_again]

Burwood said:

Ok mate

Not being a tit, sorry if it came across the wrong way. Just wondering what you mean? 500bn valuation for Tesla?

Oops, found it - 400bn market cap.

[anonymous-user]

off_again said:

Not picking on you, but did the article mention where in SF? Downtown? Wider city? Or a wider California?

Trust me, driving around downtown Palo Alto (Waymo) is relatively easy with a pretty straightforward grid system. Head out to some of the newer built areas such as Mountain House and its even easier. But SF? Driving around the city itself is a nightmare - bus lanes, cycle lanes, one-way systems and nightmare drivers. And thats before you mention the almost constant road works!!!!

There was an article about Uber testing in SF with their system a couple of years ago - broke the law 5 times in the first mile and nearly ran over a cyclist..... yeah, they stopped very quickly and withdrew.

Seen Cruise, Waymo and the trucks at Moffett Field. Its impressive stuff. The Waymo Pacifica's and Lexus's are pretty good drivers, but is that the system or the driver?

Don’t mind me, I’m just posting links about it. Here is the cruise ceo blog post about it

https://medium.com/cruise/its-time-to-drive-change...

I picked out one key sentence that addresses the points you raise

“it’s where over two million miles of city testing will truly hit the road for the first time: an electric car, driving by itself, navigating one of the most difficult driving cities in the world.“

[Smiljan]

To be fair that statement is similar to Musk saying there would a million robo taxis by the end of the year out earning money for their owners.

ie to be taken as a joke or with a pinch of salt

[Tuna]

Smiljan said:

To be fair that statement is similar to Musk saying there would a million robo taxis by the end of the year out earning money for their owners.

ie to be taken as a joke or with a pinch of salt

I think it's limited to 30mph, and within the city boundaries. Mobileye have demonstrated similar (if not better) capabilities.

What is subtly hidden in all these nice tech demos is the chasm between a tightly controlled experiment and the realities of delivering FSD in a meaningful manner.

By meaningful, I mean delivered in such a way that 'clients' can dramatically change the way they use cars. If it's "just" a better cruise control, that doesn't take away the technical achievement, but nor does it deliver a step change in car ownership. That would put it on par with inventions like lane assist, anti-lock brakes and four wheel drive. Sure, it improves driving, but it doesn't change the market.

To be meaningful, they have to enable use cases like robotaxis at scale, shared car ownership, ride hailing or other significant behavioural shifts. That means not only making the software robust enough to handle "general" driving (rather than strictly controlled experiments), but also solving the legislative issues and actually creating the disruptive market that the advance enables (ie. community ownership schemes, permissions to operate as a taxi, rental management systems and so on). This isn't a case of the moment a car can safely drive itself, the world will change - solving the technical problem is only part of the jigsaw puzzle.

[jjwilde]

Burwood said:

Wow . 5 super computers doing a loop like a rat in a maze. Just incredible.

Yes, but I thought it was impossible? Thought we were not going to see in for many many years etc. literally go back to a few months ago in this thread.

Goal posts moved yet again?

What now? It has to be 1000 cars driving to Alaska does it?

I think that's literally what the trolls on this thread will say, 'yeah well you might be able to get a driverless taxi anywhere in a big city but you can't get one to Alaska can you? So it's not real self driving' or some such equivalent of the 'how will I tow my fictional boat 2000 miles across europe with an EV'.

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 16th October 17:34

[Burwood]

jjwilde said:

Burwood said:

Wow . 5 super computers doing a loop like a rat in a maze. Just incredible.

Yes, but I thought it was impossible? Thought we were not going to see in for many many years etc. literally go back to a few months ago in this thread.

Goal posts moved yet again?

What now? It has to be 1000 cars driving to Alaska does it?

I think that's literally what the trolls on this thread will say, 'yeah well you might be able to get a driverless taxi anywhere in a big city but you can't get one to Alaska can you? So it's not real self driving' or some such equivalent of the 'how will I tow my fictional boat 2000 miles across europe with an EV'.

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 16th October 17:34

au contraire JJ. How exactly is a scalextric car self driving. If it's on a planned route which it can't deviate from it's not much use is it. Unless it's a shuttle, which it isn't and even if it were it's hardly a robot taxi taking over the roads. Be fair. It may be you moving the goal posts, inwards.

And i'm no troll. I'm questioning the tech

[Tuna]

jjwilde said:

Yes, but I thought it was impossible? Thought we were not going to see in for many many years etc. literally go back to a few months ago in this thread.

This is pretty much what Mobileye demonstrated a year ago. It's not the same as general purpose, publicly available FSD.

[Burwood]

Tuna said:

jjwilde said:

Yes, but I thought it was impossible? Thought we were not going to see in for many many years etc. literally go back to a few months ago in this thread.

This is pretty much what Mobileye demonstrated a year ago. It's not the same as general purpose, publicly available FSD.

As I’ve suggested before,Mobileye is ahead of the competition. And it’s level 4 and geofenced city blocks where it will be deployed starting in maybe 2 years and expanding over the decade following. Level 5 is a pipe dream. Decades away. That being driving in all conditions no pedals or wheel. It’s a complete nonsense Tesla will deploy this within 10 years. And given Mobileyes partners, it is they who will get the lions share.

[phil4]

Burwood said:

As I’ve suggested before,Mobileye is ahead of the competition. And it’s level 4 and geofenced city blocks where it will be deployed starting in maybe 2 years and expanding over the decade following. Level 5 is a pipe dream. Decades away. That being driving in all conditions no pedals or wheel. It’s a complete nonsense Tesla will deploy this within 10 years. And given Mobileyes partners, it is they who will get the lions share.

I think you're right on L5. It's just looking at how Tesla's in the UK deal with things now, makes you realise it's a long long way off. I'm not even talking about the software. The software can't currently handle roundabouts, or messy junctions very well... but I'm sure they'll get over that. I'm thinking more about how it deals with dark country roads, sun in it's eyes, condensation on the camera, that sorts of things. Yes, they're all surmountable, just like the software... but I can't see how in the UK a current Tesla with updated software stands a chance on all roads in all conditions.

[RichardM5]

phil4 said:

I think you're right on L5. It's just looking at how Tesla's in the UK deal with things now, makes you realise it's a long long way off. I'm not even talking about the software. The software can't currently handle roundabouts, or messy junctions very well... but I'm sure they'll get over that. I'm thinking more about how it deals with dark country roads, sun in it's eyes, condensation on the camera, that sorts of things. Yes, they're all surmountable, just like the software... but I can't see how in the UK a current Tesla with updated software stands a chance on all roads in all conditions.

Even on a dark dual carriageway auto pilot struggles. Come up behind a slower moving vehicle in lane 1 in the dark with nothing behind you and you can't pull out to pass as the cameras can't see anything behind you and think they are obscured. How anyone can expect this to work without installing IR so that the cameras can see in the dark is beyond me.

[Burwood]

RichardM5 said:

phil4 said:

I think you're right on L5. It's just looking at how Tesla's in the UK deal with things now, makes you realise it's a long long way off. I'm not even talking about the software. The software can't currently handle roundabouts, or messy junctions very well... but I'm sure they'll get over that. I'm thinking more about how it deals with dark country roads, sun in it's eyes, condensation on the camera, that sorts of things. Yes, they're all surmountable, just like the software... but I can't see how in the UK a current Tesla with updated software stands a chance on all roads in all conditions.

Even on a dark dual carriageway auto pilot struggles. Come up behind a slower moving vehicle in lane 1 in the dark with nothing behind you and you can't pull out to pass as the cameras can't see anything behind you and think they are obscured. How anyone can expect this to work without installing IR so that the cameras can see in the dark is beyond me.

I’m sure you have no such problems (overtaking)

[RichardM5]

Burwood said:

RichardM5 said:

phil4 said:

I think you're right on L5. It's just looking at how Tesla's in the UK deal with things now, makes you realise it's a long long way off. I'm not even talking about the software. The software can't currently handle roundabouts, or messy junctions very well... but I'm sure they'll get over that. I'm thinking more about how it deals with dark country roads, sun in it's eyes, condensation on the camera, that sorts of things. Yes, they're all surmountable, just like the software... but I can't see how in the UK a current Tesla with updated software stands a chance on all roads in all conditions.

Even on a dark dual carriageway auto pilot struggles. Come up behind a slower moving vehicle in lane 1 in the dark with nothing behind you and you can't pull out to pass as the cameras can't see anything behind you and think they are obscured. How anyone can expect this to work without installing IR so that the cameras can see in the dark is beyond me.

I’m sure you have no such problems (overtaking)

No 'I' don't, Autopilot on the other hand does and will leave you stuck behind a lorry doing 55 mph unless you disengage it.

[Burwood]

RichardM5 said:

Burwood said:

RichardM5 said:

phil4 said:

I think you're right on L5. It's just looking at how Tesla's in the UK deal with things now, makes you realise it's a long long way off. I'm not even talking about the software. The software can't currently handle roundabouts, or messy junctions very well... but I'm sure they'll get over that. I'm thinking more about how it deals with dark country roads, sun in it's eyes, condensation on the camera, that sorts of things. Yes, they're all surmountable, just like the software... but I can't see how in the UK a current Tesla with updated software stands a chance on all roads in all conditions.

Even on a dark dual carriageway auto pilot struggles. Come up behind a slower moving vehicle in lane 1 in the dark with nothing behind you and you can't pull out to pass as the cameras can't see anything behind you and think they are obscured. How anyone can expect this to work without installing IR so that the cameras can see in the dark is beyond me.

I’m sure you have no such problems (overtaking)

No 'I' don't, Autopilot on the other hand does and will leave you stuck behind a lorry doing 55 mph unless you disengage it.

You’ll want to make a fast exit from this thread or laugh your tits off. This week we had ‘insurance companies going bust because no one needs insurance under self drive. Yet you chime in with a ludicrous comment that fsd might make you sit behind a lane hogger for the rest of your life.

[RichardM5]

Burwood said:

You’ll want to make a fast exit from this thread or laugh your tits off. This week we had ‘insurance companies going bust because no one needs insurance under self drive. Yet you chime in with a ludicrous comment that fsd might make you sit behind a lane hogger for the rest of your life.

I'm firmly in the laugh my tits off camp. I've used Autopilot on many occasions, in limited situations it works very well, most of the time it's irritating or just bloody dangerous.

[coetzeeh]

Tesla quietly cancels the "no questions asked" 7 days return policy.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/16/tesla-cancels-balls...

Reportedly became a major issue in China when prices were reduced 01 October and buyers in last week of Sep wanted to return their cars.

[Gandahar]

Tesla Aint no Apple

Read my lips.

Same as Tesla are not a tech company who just, by mistake, keeps building car factories ...


Even Apple are going to struggle in the next 5 years even with Donald trying to help them out

Being bespoke never worked over time......

You have the whole world against you, for cheap....

Edited by Gandahar on Saturday 17th October 18:06

[Gandahar]

If you lump together the top automotive companies market cap wise how many do you have to add together compared to Tesla?

Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda, GM etc ....

They are probably worth less than Tesla at the moment but how many cars do they sell per year compared to Tesla?

But Elon has his special rainbow pointing into the land of milk and honey where the gold mine is.

[jamoor]

Gandahar said:

Tesla Aint no Apple

Read my lips.

Same as Tesla are not a tech company who just, by mistake, keeps building car factories ...


Even Apple are going to struggle in the next 5 years even with Donald trying to help them out

Being bespoke never worked over time......

You have the whole world against you, for cheap....

Edited by Gandahar on Saturday 17th October 18:06

Bespoke = USP and barrier to entry no?

[Gandahar]

Elon and his best buddy Donald T Trump are both despicable.

Elon goes on about saving the planet and yet just seems to want to be the richest billionaire on earth. His fanbots being pleased in the meanwhile gobbling up his twitter gobste.

How many brain cells have they got between them? Less than the number of people buying something from Gordon Murray in the next 4 years I'd wager.


PATHETIC.


Don't get me started ....

lol