Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[ZesPak]

NDNDNDND said:

ZesPak said:

Ok, what if there was no upgradeability?

Imagine, a car coming from a manufacturer and having to run it's entire life with the headunit that was basically outdated the moment they put it in the car the first day. Would this car better keep it's value?

I owned my MX-5 for ten years before I tried using the CD player.

Not everyone thinks like an IT nerd.

So is that a yes or no on my question?

Richard-D said:

You don't have to look far on this part of the forum to find a couple of loons ranting about the environmental impact of diesel cars as they've bought themselves a brand new electric car. People buying brand new electric cars are not generally going to be running them for 10 years.

People buy new cars. Others run them in the ground.
You're right that we should consume less and buy less stuff. But we can also change the stuff we buy to be more environmentally conscience.
We should do less miles, travel less. But on the other hand we can also look at travelling with a smaller footprint.

What you're saying is that the switch to LED lighting was BS, we should have told people to turn off the lights more often.

[Richard-D]

ZesPak said:

People buy new cars. Others run them in the ground.
You're right that we should consume less and buy less stuff. But we can also change the stuff we buy to be more environmentally conscience.
We should do less miles, travel less. But on the other hand we can also look at travelling with a smaller footprint.

What you're saying is that LED lighting is BS, you should just turn off the lights more often.

Nope, not saying that at all. A couple of years ago I replaced all the floodlights around my house with LEDs. The 20+ year old 450w halogens had no glass and the bulbs were gone. I did however retain/reuse all the PIR sensors as there was nothing wrong with them. The attitudes of some on here suggests that they would replace the LED units every couple of years as better versions came onto the market.

[ZesPak]

Richard-D said:

The attitudes of some on here suggests that they would replace the LED units every couple of years as better versions came onto the market.

Ok, who here is suggesting to replace an EV with a newer EV?

[Tuna]

jamoor said:

Tuna said:

You do understand that if you buy an M3 for (say) 45K, then spend 15K keeping it "current", your effective depreciation if you sell it for 40K is not just 5K?

You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.

One born every minute.

What if you don’t keep it current, does it depreciate more?


Let’s pretend keeping it current means replacing the ecu for 5k a time.

If you've spent money on keeping the car current, the loss when you sell includes the additional money you've spent.

That's not that hard to understand is it?

[Heres Johnny]

ZesPak said:

Richard-D said:

The attitudes of some on here suggests that they would replace the LED units every couple of years as better versions came onto the market.

Ok, who here is suggesting to replace an EV with a newer EV?

I think its the opposite in that some are suggesting you never need to buy another EV because of 1 million mile batteries and no maintenance they never wear out, while at the same time being technology products which is the odd part because we all know tech doesn't age well typically. I'm saying that people do want to update and upgrade periodically. I imagine when people change their car the new one is typically 2-4 years younger than the outgoing, ie 8 year old car being replaced with a 4 year old car, but people do this all the time. Few people keep a daily driver for more than 4 years even if the car itself just becomes somebody else's daily driver for the next 4 years.

The LEDs on Richards house are hardly the same thing. Whereas my iphone is 4 years old and works perfectly well but it hasn't stopped me thinking about getting a new iphone.

Edited by Heres Johnny on Tuesday 15th December 18:01

[ZesPak]

Heres Johnny said:

The LEDs on Richards house are hardly the same thing. Whereas my iphone is 4 years old and works perfectly well but it hasn't stopped me thinking about getting a new iphone.

Yes, I'm aware that there's barely a second hand market for light bulbs (incandescent or led).
The analogy I was making that people are going to use their lights/cars anyway, why not make them as efficient as possible? The numbers on EV's, even by the worst analysis are quite convincing. So yes, people that buy a new car every 2 years probably have a high footprint. But the car's life goes on after that, and over a car's life, an EV has a smaller footprint.

[jamoor]

Tuna said:

If you've spent money on keeping the car current, the loss when you sell includes the additional money you've spent.

That's not that hard to understand is it?

If you don't keep it current then sell it at the end to a buyer who will be delighted to buy it off you and upgrade it rather than having to buy a brand new one to get the latest tech...
From what I can see no car manufacturers offers an upgrade path for older vehicles.


What do you think this does for resduals?

Edited by jamoor on Tuesday 15th December 18:50

[AstonZagato]

ZesPak said:

Heres Johnny said:

The LEDs on Richards house are hardly the same thing. Whereas my iphone is 4 years old and works perfectly well but it hasn't stopped me thinking about getting a new iphone.

Yes, I'm aware that there's barely a second hand market for light bulbs (incandescent or led).
The analogy I was making that people are going to use their lights/cars anyway, why not make them as efficient as possible? The numbers on EV's, even by the worst analysis are quite convincing. So yes, people that buy a new car every 2 years probably have a high footprint. But the car's life goes on after that, and over a car's life, an EV has a smaller footprint.

Exactly. I noticed Harry's Garage using this argument - that we should not get new cars but preserve old ones. It's a "yeah but no but yeah" hypothesis. Some old cars will not be economic to fix or will be irreparably damaged. New EVs may last longer than new ICE cars. Without the stock of useable cars being restored with some new cars, eventually we will have a supply problem. The bottom line is whether it is better to refill the supply with EV or ICE. The numbers I have seen suggest that it is EVs.
That said, if we could all try to extend the life of our products and their recyclability, it would be better for the planet.

tl:dr?
You can't save the planet by buying a new EV but you can't save the planet by buying a new ICE either - and someone needs to buy some new cars along the way.

[Justin Case]

Manufacturers are in business to sell new cars. They hope that having the latest tech will help customers to buy their cars instead of their competitors' ones. Whether the new car replaces a year old one or a ten year old one is irrelevant to them. The motor trade thinks differently, hence their desperation to suck you into their new PCP deal when yours runs out.

[jamoor]

Justin Case said:

Manufacturers are in business to sell new cars. They hope that having the latest tech will help customers to buy their cars instead of their competitors' ones. Whether the new car replaces a year old one or a ten year old one is irrelevant to them. The motor trade thinks differently, hence their desperation to suck you into their new PCP deal when yours runs out.

This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.

[Tuna]

jamoor said:

If you don't keep it current then sell it at the end to a buyer who will be delighted to buy it off you and upgrade it rather than having to buy a brand new one to get the latest tech...
From what I can see no car manufacturers offers an upgrade path for older vehicles.


What do you think this does for resduals?

Very, very little. If I want the latest tech, I'm now having to factor in the price and inconvenience of an upgrade to the purchase cost. That doesn't make the car more attractive.

All the stuff that gets old (suspension, bearings, trim, paint etc.) is still old, so no-one will appreciate I've just paid over the odds for an old car.

I've seen this before with classics. The owners are all starry eyed, "it just needs a bit of a refresh, and it'll be brilliant", followed by an asking price that would make Bill Gates wince.

[ZesPak]

jamoor said:

This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.

Tbh, if making money on cars makes you push against the environment, Tesla is as green as it gets

[Justin Case]

jamoor said:

This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.

I have seen a lot about the technical aspects, but suspiciously little about the business case.

[off_again]

ZesPak said:

Richard-D said:

The attitudes of some on here suggests that they would replace the LED units every couple of years as better versions came onto the market.

Ok, who here is suggesting to replace an EV with a newer EV?

This whole thing is evolving and changing dramatically, and we really dont know how this is going to pan out over time. However, I absolutely will say that a lot of Tesla owners here in California have and will continue to buy the new one to replace the older one. Ok, in the absence of brand-new models, that is somewhat changing, but I do know multiple people who jumped on the Model S in the early days, swapped to the face-lift model and then upgraded to the Performance model etc. Others really wanted a MX etc.... you get the idea. What I am hearing is that a lot of early M3 owners are 'upgrading' to the MY after 1 or 2 years, so yeah, I would absolutely say that a lot of Tesla owners are repeat customers and are replacing older ones with the new model.

This DOESNT outweigh the new buyers though - hence the comment about 'over time'. With the majority of buyers being new to EV's, upgrades are still the minority. But as volumes grow for Tesla in new markets, the California one is slowing and shifting, so lets see how this pans out and what happens. Tesla really needs to make sure they cover their options here and allow for a wider choice, which is only 2 SUV's and 2 sedans - somewhat limited.

And while Tesla has done a good job of providing 'upgrades' and new features to their cars over time, I am not sure this enough to keep owners in them for a longer period of time. The average sale price for a Model 3 is something like $45k and all of this talk about them being 'affordable' is somewhat laughable. The average sales price of a new car in the US was around $36k in 2019 (slightly higher in 2020 I believe) and the average car sold in the US is something like 6 years old and is around $15k. So dropping $45k on a car is still out of reach for most Americans, regardless of how much you call it 'affordable'. Its like calling the RR Ghost, the affordable one!

Why mention this? Because we are talking about a specific sector and type of buyer. They are usually environmentally aware, but also style lead and are usually high earners. Are they actually going to keep their new EV for 8 years? Yeah, not going to happen. I hate to oversimplify and characterize too much, but for many (not all) early adopters, they are more than willing to swap to the new model, just like they swap to the new smartphone / tablet when it arrives. A quick search on YouTube shows you hundreds of Tesla 'owners' who swap and change constantly, not necessarily helped by high initial residuals!

I do agree with Harry Metcalf about ownership of cars going forward though and we really need to think about what we buy and how long we keep NEW cars. But Tesla does claim to have all of the green credentials in the past, but are seriously lacking in actual commitment - building brand new factories, only just launched (sept 2020) a battery recycling program, blocking of independent repair or recycling of their cars or components etc etc etc.... other vendors are much more open and have active programs in place, Tesla on the other hand - well you get the idea. So yeah, a lot of people do buy EV's and then upgrade them - and since Tesla has been doing it the longest, they have a lot of repeat customers. So yeah, its true - I know a bunch of them personally!

[jamoor]

Justin Case said:

I have seen a lot about the technical aspects, but suspiciously little about the business case.

You can read about it here.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

[Tuna]

jamoor said:

This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.

Is that what they're betting on this week? The idea that makes no financial sense and has no visible business model?

[jamoor]

off_again said:

This whole thing is evolving and changing dramatically, and we really dont know how this is going to pan out over time. However, I absolutely will say that a lot of Tesla owners here in California have and will continue to buy the new one to replace the older one. Ok, in the absence of brand-new models, that is somewhat changing, but I do know multiple people who jumped on the Model S in the early days, swapped to the face-lift model and then upgraded to the Performance model etc. Others really wanted a MX etc.... you get the idea. What I am hearing is that a lot of early M3 owners are 'upgrading' to the MY after 1 or 2 years, so yeah, I would absolutely say that a lot of Tesla owners are repeat customers and are replacing older ones with the new model.

This DOESNT outweigh the new buyers though - hence the comment about 'over time'. With the majority of buyers being new to EV's, upgrades are still the minority. But as volumes grow for Tesla in new markets, the California one is slowing and shifting, so lets see how this pans out and what happens. Tesla really needs to make sure they cover their options here and allow for a wider choice, which is only 2 SUV's and 2 sedans - somewhat limited.

And while Tesla has done a good job of providing 'upgrades' and new features to their cars over time, I am not sure this enough to keep owners in them for a longer period of time. The average sale price for a Model 3 is something like $45k and all of this talk about them being 'affordable' is somewhat laughable. The average sales price of a new car in the US was around $36k in 2019 (slightly higher in 2020 I believe) and the average car sold in the US is something like 6 years old and is around $15k. So dropping $45k on a car is still out of reach for most Americans, regardless of how much you call it 'affordable'. Its like calling the RR Ghost, the affordable one!

Why mention this? Because we are talking about a specific sector and type of buyer. They are usually environmentally aware, but also style lead and are usually high earners. Are they actually going to keep their new EV for 8 years? Yeah, not going to happen. I hate to oversimplify and characterize too much, but for many (not all) early adopters, they are more than willing to swap to the new model, just like they swap to the new smartphone / tablet when it arrives. A quick search on YouTube shows you hundreds of Tesla 'owners' who swap and change constantly, not necessarily helped by high initial residuals!

I do agree with Harry Metcalf about ownership of cars going forward though and we really need to think about what we buy and how long we keep NEW cars. But Tesla does claim to have all of the green credentials in the past, but are seriously lacking in actual commitment - building brand new factories, only just launched (sept 2020) a battery recycling program, blocking of independent repair or recycling of their cars or components etc etc etc.... other vendors are much more open and have active programs in place, Tesla on the other hand - well you get the idea. So yeah, a lot of people do buy EV's and then upgrade them - and since Tesla has been doing it the longest, they have a lot of repeat customers. So yeah, its true - I know a bunch of them personally!

The more people that buy new Tesla’s as reest customers the better it is. Why?
The used ones generally replace an ICE in the used market and eventually remove an ICE off the road.

[off_again]

jamoor said:

The more people that buy new Tesla’s as reest customers the better it is. Why?
The used ones generally replace an ICE in the used market and eventually remove an ICE off the road.

Vast number of customers coming into Tesla's, either new or second hand, are coming from ICE cars, so yeah, its a big shift. But just pointing out its a complex area and there are some (clearly not all, or even half) of Tesla owners are 'upgrading' - and those EV's are then sold on to new customers in most cases. But its shifting and changing and its going to be interesting to see how it all pans out.

[gangzoom]

Heres Johnny said:

A used upgraded one thats had 3k spent of the MCU upgrade, will have paid 8K for the none existent FSD

If you're going to talk numbers at least get them right, the MCU2 upgrade is £2350, FSD I bought for £4500 having had not paid for any form of Autopilot software before. Yes the radio is £725, but seriously do people still listen to AM/FM these days?

Tesla have also reduced the cost of the CCS retrofit to £280, which other manufacturer retrofits DC rapid charging standards? Not forgetting the CHADMO adaptor if that's your thing.

You also don't need the MCU2 upgrade since Tesla have extended the warranty cover on MCU1 to 8 years.

As I've said the best value used EV is an iPace at around £40k, but am not entirely if you would pick one over a £40k used Model S or 3?

Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 15th December 21:22

[Heres Johnny]

gangzoom said:

If you're going to talk numbers at least get them right, the MCU2 upgrade is £2350, FSD I bought for £4500 having had not paid for any form of Autopilot software before. Yes the radio is £725, but seriously do people still listen to AM/FM these days?

Stop being a fool -

You contradict yourself saying the upgrade is less and then quote the additional you have to pay to keep the radio which together s the price I quoted. And where have you been... AM/FM.?.. it includes DAB and yes, people do listen to the radio, especially those that like to listen to sport because internet radio typically can't due to licensing, and/or they like regional traffic alerts kicking in when they drive. I can see some people being put off from buying a car without a radio. And besides, the point I made still holds true even if you go without the radio - its a big chunk of change when the average car in this country is £13k

And then you start quoting OLD prices for upgrades. Why?...Nobody gives a damn how much you paid when Musk put it on sale for a month The price you paid is not an option anymore unless you've already spent £4k on EAP.. which guess what... the combined price is the one I quoted.