Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
jamoor said:
This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.
Tbh, if making money on cars makes you push against the environment, Tesla is as green as it gets 
jamoor said:
This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.
I have seen a lot about the technical aspects, but suspiciously little about the business case.ZesPak said:
Richard-D said:
The attitudes of some on here suggests that they would replace the LED units every couple of years as better versions came onto the market.
Ok, who here is suggesting to replace an EV with a newer EV?This DOESNT outweigh the new buyers though - hence the comment about 'over time'. With the majority of buyers being new to EV's, upgrades are still the minority. But as volumes grow for Tesla in new markets, the California one is slowing and shifting, so lets see how this pans out and what happens. Tesla really needs to make sure they cover their options here and allow for a wider choice, which is only 2 SUV's and 2 sedans - somewhat limited.
And while Tesla has done a good job of providing 'upgrades' and new features to their cars over time, I am not sure this enough to keep owners in them for a longer period of time. The average sale price for a Model 3 is something like $45k and all of this talk about them being 'affordable' is somewhat laughable. The average sales price of a new car in the US was around $36k in 2019 (slightly higher in 2020 I believe) and the average car sold in the US is something like 6 years old and is around $15k. So dropping $45k on a car is still out of reach for most Americans, regardless of how much you call it 'affordable'. Its like calling the RR Ghost, the affordable one!
Why mention this? Because we are talking about a specific sector and type of buyer. They are usually environmentally aware, but also style lead and are usually high earners. Are they actually going to keep their new EV for 8 years? Yeah, not going to happen. I hate to oversimplify and characterize too much, but for many (not all) early adopters, they are more than willing to swap to the new model, just like they swap to the new smartphone / tablet when it arrives. A quick search on YouTube shows you hundreds of Tesla 'owners' who swap and change constantly, not necessarily helped by high initial residuals!
I do agree with Harry Metcalf about ownership of cars going forward though and we really need to think about what we buy and how long we keep NEW cars. But Tesla does claim to have all of the green credentials in the past, but are seriously lacking in actual commitment - building brand new factories, only just launched (sept 2020) a battery recycling program, blocking of independent repair or recycling of their cars or components etc etc etc.... other vendors are much more open and have active programs in place, Tesla on the other hand - well you get the idea. So yeah, a lot of people do buy EV's and then upgrade them - and since Tesla has been doing it the longest, they have a lot of repeat customers. So yeah, its true - I know a bunch of them personally!
Justin Case said:
I have seen a lot about the technical aspects, but suspiciously little about the business case.
You can read about it here.https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux
jamoor said:
This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.
Is that what they're betting on this week? The idea that makes no financial sense and has no visible business model?off_again said:
This whole thing is evolving and changing dramatically, and we really dont know how this is going to pan out over time. However, I absolutely will say that a lot of Tesla owners here in California have and will continue to buy the new one to replace the older one. Ok, in the absence of brand-new models, that is somewhat changing, but I do know multiple people who jumped on the Model S in the early days, swapped to the face-lift model and then upgraded to the Performance model etc. Others really wanted a MX etc.... you get the idea. What I am hearing is that a lot of early M3 owners are 'upgrading' to the MY after 1 or 2 years, so yeah, I would absolutely say that a lot of Tesla owners are repeat customers and are replacing older ones with the new model.
This DOESNT outweigh the new buyers though - hence the comment about 'over time'. With the majority of buyers being new to EV's, upgrades are still the minority. But as volumes grow for Tesla in new markets, the California one is slowing and shifting, so lets see how this pans out and what happens. Tesla really needs to make sure they cover their options here and allow for a wider choice, which is only 2 SUV's and 2 sedans - somewhat limited.
And while Tesla has done a good job of providing 'upgrades' and new features to their cars over time, I am not sure this enough to keep owners in them for a longer period of time. The average sale price for a Model 3 is something like $45k and all of this talk about them being 'affordable' is somewhat laughable. The average sales price of a new car in the US was around $36k in 2019 (slightly higher in 2020 I believe) and the average car sold in the US is something like 6 years old and is around $15k. So dropping $45k on a car is still out of reach for most Americans, regardless of how much you call it 'affordable'. Its like calling the RR Ghost, the affordable one!
Why mention this? Because we are talking about a specific sector and type of buyer. They are usually environmentally aware, but also style lead and are usually high earners. Are they actually going to keep their new EV for 8 years? Yeah, not going to happen. I hate to oversimplify and characterize too much, but for many (not all) early adopters, they are more than willing to swap to the new model, just like they swap to the new smartphone / tablet when it arrives. A quick search on YouTube shows you hundreds of Tesla 'owners' who swap and change constantly, not necessarily helped by high initial residuals!
I do agree with Harry Metcalf about ownership of cars going forward though and we really need to think about what we buy and how long we keep NEW cars. But Tesla does claim to have all of the green credentials in the past, but are seriously lacking in actual commitment - building brand new factories, only just launched (sept 2020) a battery recycling program, blocking of independent repair or recycling of their cars or components etc etc etc.... other vendors are much more open and have active programs in place, Tesla on the other hand - well you get the idea. So yeah, a lot of people do buy EV's and then upgrade them - and since Tesla has been doing it the longest, they have a lot of repeat customers. So yeah, its true - I know a bunch of them personally!
The more people that buy new Tesla’s as reest customers the better it is. Why?This DOESNT outweigh the new buyers though - hence the comment about 'over time'. With the majority of buyers being new to EV's, upgrades are still the minority. But as volumes grow for Tesla in new markets, the California one is slowing and shifting, so lets see how this pans out and what happens. Tesla really needs to make sure they cover their options here and allow for a wider choice, which is only 2 SUV's and 2 sedans - somewhat limited.
And while Tesla has done a good job of providing 'upgrades' and new features to their cars over time, I am not sure this enough to keep owners in them for a longer period of time. The average sale price for a Model 3 is something like $45k and all of this talk about them being 'affordable' is somewhat laughable. The average sales price of a new car in the US was around $36k in 2019 (slightly higher in 2020 I believe) and the average car sold in the US is something like 6 years old and is around $15k. So dropping $45k on a car is still out of reach for most Americans, regardless of how much you call it 'affordable'. Its like calling the RR Ghost, the affordable one!
Why mention this? Because we are talking about a specific sector and type of buyer. They are usually environmentally aware, but also style lead and are usually high earners. Are they actually going to keep their new EV for 8 years? Yeah, not going to happen. I hate to oversimplify and characterize too much, but for many (not all) early adopters, they are more than willing to swap to the new model, just like they swap to the new smartphone / tablet when it arrives. A quick search on YouTube shows you hundreds of Tesla 'owners' who swap and change constantly, not necessarily helped by high initial residuals!
I do agree with Harry Metcalf about ownership of cars going forward though and we really need to think about what we buy and how long we keep NEW cars. But Tesla does claim to have all of the green credentials in the past, but are seriously lacking in actual commitment - building brand new factories, only just launched (sept 2020) a battery recycling program, blocking of independent repair or recycling of their cars or components etc etc etc.... other vendors are much more open and have active programs in place, Tesla on the other hand - well you get the idea. So yeah, a lot of people do buy EV's and then upgrade them - and since Tesla has been doing it the longest, they have a lot of repeat customers. So yeah, its true - I know a bunch of them personally!
The used ones generally replace an ICE in the used market and eventually remove an ICE off the road.
jamoor said:
The more people that buy new Tesla’s as reest customers the better it is. Why?
The used ones generally replace an ICE in the used market and eventually remove an ICE off the road.
Vast number of customers coming into Tesla's, either new or second hand, are coming from ICE cars, so yeah, its a big shift. But just pointing out its a complex area and there are some (clearly not all, or even half) of Tesla owners are 'upgrading' - and those EV's are then sold on to new customers in most cases. But its shifting and changing and its going to be interesting to see how it all pans out.The used ones generally replace an ICE in the used market and eventually remove an ICE off the road.
Heres Johnny said:
A used upgraded one thats had 3k spent of the MCU upgrade, will have paid 8K for the none existent FSD
If you're going to talk numbers at least get them right, the MCU2 upgrade is £2350, FSD I bought for £4500 having had not paid for any form of Autopilot software before. Yes the radio is £725, but seriously do people still listen to AM/FM these days? Tesla have also reduced the cost of the CCS retrofit to £280, which other manufacturer retrofits DC rapid charging standards? Not forgetting the CHADMO adaptor if that's your thing.
You also don't need the MCU2 upgrade since Tesla have extended the warranty cover on MCU1 to 8 years.
As I've said the best value used EV is an iPace at around £40k, but am not entirely if you would pick one over a £40k used Model S or 3?
Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 15th December 21:22
gangzoom said:
If you're going to talk numbers at least get them right, the MCU2 upgrade is £2350, FSD I bought for £4500 having had not paid for any form of Autopilot software before. Yes the radio is £725, but seriously do people still listen to AM/FM these days?
Stop being a fool - You contradict yourself saying the upgrade is less and then quote the additional you have to pay to keep the radio which together s the price I quoted. And where have you been... AM/FM.?.. it includes DAB and yes, people do listen to the radio, especially those that like to listen to sport because internet radio typically can't due to licensing, and/or they like regional traffic alerts kicking in when they drive. I can see some people being put off from buying a car without a radio. And besides, the point I made still holds true even if you go without the radio - its a big chunk of change when the average car in this country is £13k
And then you start quoting OLD prices for upgrades. Why?...Nobody gives a damn how much you paid when Musk put it on sale for a month The price you paid is not an option anymore unless you've already spent £4k on EAP.. which guess what... the combined price is the one I quoted.
Automotive designer Frank Stephenson's take on the Cybertruck.
https://futurism.com/automobile-designer-demolishe...
https://futurism.com/automobile-designer-demolishe...
jamoor said:
Justin Case said:
Manufacturers are in business to sell new cars. They hope that having the latest tech will help customers to buy their cars instead of their competitors' ones. Whether the new car replaces a year old one or a ten year old one is irrelevant to them. The motor trade thinks differently, hence their desperation to suck you into their new PCP deal when yours runs out.
This is kind of where Tesla is different, they are betting on creating an alternative recurring revenue stream (robotaxis) rather than having to keep selling new cars year in year out to make money.I just think the future will be modular vehicles, that can be upgraded (and this is where the profit is) rather than replaced. Of course, there will be a supply of new, but a manufacturer will look to take profit from the lifetime of the vehicle, rather than from a unit sale.
It's the service depts that keeps the dealers afloat (that and finance) but it's difficult to control (which is the crux) as owners go outside of the dealership network and source non-OEM/ manufacturer parts.
Castrol for a knave said:
I just think the future will be modular vehicles, that can be upgraded (and this is where the profit is) rather than replaced. Of course, there will be a supply of new, but a manufacturer will look to take profit from the lifetime of the vehicle, rather than from a unit sale.
In what way do you see vehicles being modular? With electric vehicles I'd expect the battery to be the main 'module' anyone would want to upgrade but if anything they're getting more integrated aren't they?I like the idea of a modular, upgradeable vehicle too but can't see it happening myself. Anything modular has to be heavier to facilitate that ability which means it is always going to be compromised in some way for the initial customer.
Richard-D said:
In what way do you see vehicles being modular? With electric vehicles I'd expect the battery to be the main 'module' anyone would want to upgrade but if anything they're getting more integrated aren't they?
Indeed, structural batteries are a key ingredient when it comes to weight saving. In addition, it turns out that batteries get built to the architecture of the vehicle, so it's not like we have a universal battery size and composition that can just be swapped between cars. I think GM are moving towards a more modular battery design, but it still looks like this is to aid construction rather than to let customers swap and upgrade.TheRainMaker said:
Wait a second, you have to pay extra for a radio?
I hadn't realised that either. I love the suggestion that nobody listens to the radio too. I have no interest in podcasts, music streaming etc. If I want some noise or news on a journey the radio goes on. I have no interest in faffing with streaming etc and I imagine the bulk of people are similar. I think there is a tendency for people that like fiddling with that stuff to assume that everyone else wants to, hence the yabbering about 'infotainment'.Richard-D said:
Castrol for a knave said:
I just think the future will be modular vehicles, that can be upgraded (and this is where the profit is) rather than replaced. Of course, there will be a supply of new, but a manufacturer will look to take profit from the lifetime of the vehicle, rather than from a unit sale.
In what way do you see vehicles being modular? With electric vehicles I'd expect the battery to be the main 'module' anyone would want to upgrade but if anything they're getting more integrated aren't they?I like the idea of a modular, upgradeable vehicle too but can't see it happening myself. Anything modular has to be heavier to facilitate that ability which means it is always going to be compromised in some way for the initial customer.
There will of course be general service items but the core componentry can be swapped out, upgraded.
The body shell is almost like an airframe, without the worry about running out of hours.
People will replace the entire car as new designs are released and such but the operating lifetime will be longer and more profitable to the manufacturer than we have now. Sales volumes will fall but the profit recouped through the ownership cost of the vehicle.
Mind you, I was never much cop at the Urban Futures classes when I was uni - I had us all wearing hover boots and looking like the Jetsons.
Castrol for a knave said:
Richard-D said:
Castrol for a knave said:
I just think the future will be modular vehicles, that can be upgraded (and this is where the profit is) rather than replaced. Of course, there will be a supply of new, but a manufacturer will look to take profit from the lifetime of the vehicle, rather than from a unit sale.
In what way do you see vehicles being modular? With electric vehicles I'd expect the battery to be the main 'module' anyone would want to upgrade but if anything they're getting more integrated aren't they?I like the idea of a modular, upgradeable vehicle too but can't see it happening myself. Anything modular has to be heavier to facilitate that ability which means it is always going to be compromised in some way for the initial customer.
There will of course be general service items but the core componentry can be swapped out, upgraded.
The body shell is almost like an airframe, without the worry about running out of hours.
People will replace the entire car as new designs are released and such but the operating lifetime will be longer and more profitable to the manufacturer than we have now. Sales volumes will fall but the profit recouped through the ownership cost of the vehicle.
Mind you, I was never much cop at the Urban Futures classes when I was uni - I had us all wearing hover boots and looking like the Jetsons.
Richard-D said:
TheRainMaker said:
Wait a second, you have to pay extra for a radio?
I hadn't realised that either. I love the suggestion that nobody listens to the radio too. I have no interest in podcasts, music streaming etc. If I want some noise or news on a journey the radio goes on. I have no interest in faffing with streaming etc and I imagine the bulk of people are similar. I think there is a tendency for people that like fiddling with that stuff to assume that everyone else wants to, hence the yabbering about 'infotainment'.Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff