Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Tuna said:
I've heard both argued by Tesla fans, certain that the company must forever grow.
You seem to have your nose out of joint to have it pointed out that there are competitive threats out there of any sort whatsoever.
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.You seem to have your nose out of joint to have it pointed out that there are competitive threats out there of any sort whatsoever.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Well the parallels of the smartphone and EV market are too many.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
American company turns up with radically new product.
Incumbents (mostly european + Japanese) try to innovate to compete
Chinese turn up with their versions.
I am waiting if the following happens
American company continues to lead the market
Europeans fade into irrelevance.
Chinese become major players.
ZesPak said:
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
You need to work on your comprehension skills. I was very clear it's extremely unlikely Apple would do so - the corporate stuff behind that sentence would take a lot of digging into, but it's there.I was specifically answering another comment that Apple must regret not buying Tesla when they had the chance. The point that there is very little stopping them entering the market is pertinent to that particular nugget, as was AstonZagato's comment about Microsoft.
I doubt Apple give a monkey's about not buying Telsa - you can rebut that particular claim if you like, it was the one being made. I am not for one minute suggesting that Apple are about to do so, or that they are about to enter the market. Again, as I said, it's extremely unlikely (but not impossible).
So... wind your neck in you muppet. You don't need to come riding to the rescue of Tesla here. You're just making yourself look silly.
EddieSteadyGo said:
AstonZagato said:
Microsoft used to have (I haven't watched them recently) an acquisition strategy that focused on the 3rd/4th placed players.
They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
That's an interesting little snippet!They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
Recent developments and security components illustrate this especially well. Then it’s a strategy of bundle when it’s “good enough” and charge a monthly subscription. And for the bigger deals, it’s all done on the golf course.
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
Comparisons with mobile phones mean very little. Phones are a service, paid with a monthly contract, and replaced annually when a bigger better phone comes along. Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
Tesla is just like Apple.Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
If tomorrow, Apple announced they had a new battery technology that they think will take cars to the next level, and they're going to release an Apple car in a year's time using this new technology... what do you think that would to do Tesla sales, and the share price?
As for Apple building a car? Yeah not seeing that in what we consider a normal sense. They will contract out manufacturing and will most likely partner on a network for charging. I suspect their USP will be the connected nature and ease of use. It’s going to be interesting to see what they come up with, but I am sure it’s going to be divisive nonetheless.
Oh and on the $200bn in the bank, that’s not for spending. That’s for supporting the business, strategic direction and propping up the share price. There is intrinsic value from having the cash, but dropping it all on building a car and a charging network? Yeah, that’s a quick way to rank your share price. Apple make a ton of money per customer they have, switching to making cars (not impossible) is a low margin market so can’t see
The market liking that much. But hey, they got into the phone business, so I could be totally off the mark here. And who knew they would be making general purpose CPU’s in 2020!!
ZesPak said:
Must be hard for you to see your favorite company to hate do so well.
Just keep your hate consistent and stop contradicting yourself, it'll make you look less stupid.
Victim mentality too? No hate at all for Tesla. Some cynicism about their current situation, but I'm actually very happy to see the state of the art being advanced.Just keep your hate consistent and stop contradicting yourself, it'll make you look less stupid.
jamoor said:
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Europeans fade into irrelevance.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Burwood said:
jamoor said:
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Europeans fade into irrelevance.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
And, Zespak, the two things that link the phone market and the car market are tech (in Tesla's case anyway) and fanboys (especially in Tesla's case!)
The fanboys love the tech. That's what they go for, beyond the car's other features. They queue overnight for the latest, slightly different phone model. They are willing to pay extra for a car because it has an FSD system that don't really work safely yet and isn't yet legally approved.
But beyond that there's no comparison in overall product function, product price-point and product lifecycle.
Cars won't go the way of the phone because their primary functions are so very different, no matter how much tech, like gimmicky fart noises, the manufacturer tries to load into the car.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I appreciate the fact that they are not identical. But it's hard to overlook the similarities in terms of disruption. Of course, because of the product lifecycle and infrastructure, it won't go as fast as the smartphone market did in ~2010.Anyway, it was Tuna that decided that now was the time to compare Tesla to Nokia.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
All the whoopie cushion function is is something hat people like you remember as a talking point., not why owners are such fans of the cars.ZesPak said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I appreciate the fact that they are not identical. But it's hard to overlook the similarities in terms of disruption. Of course, because of the product lifecycle and infrastructure, it won't go as fast as the smartphone market did in ~2010.Anyway, it was Tuna that decided that now was the time to compare Tesla to Nokia.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
All the whoopie cushion function is is something hat people like you remember as a talking point., not why owners are such fans of the cars.The whole 'disruption' thing is so short-term.
We have companies developing cars to answer the specific question of CO2. Without that question, and the free money, they wouldn't have existed. It's uncertain if they're really offering a decent answer to the question anyway.
Electric cars are full of benefits but also compromises. It's not as if they're a magic product that's brought onto the market that blow the existing products away in any real, practical and tangible terms. What can an electric car do that an ICE car cannot? What new beneficial possibilities do they really offer the driver?
Disruption would be a colour touchscreen against others with a green dot matrix screen with buttons in a fashion and convenience driven world. Disruption would be added music and media playing ability against just making calls. Offering something that's new and additional, making the product do more than the others.
There's no longer any 'disruption' in the phone market. It's now got to the stage where phones are getting bigger, memory is expanding, cameras are getting better, but looking less interesting. There's nothing of note that's new, just enhancements of what already exists.
The electric car industry will reach the point where it's in no way disrupting anything else but disruption will come from within, specifically with battery energy densities and charging speeds, or who can make them cheaper, but not much else.
Edited to add - desirability too. It seems people like Nio, XPeng and Lucid seem to be offering a car that feels so much nicer to be sat in and so much more interesting to look at. This will definitely disrupt Tesla by either forcing them to up their game in the styling department or by squeezing their share of the market.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 10:27
I don't think the phone comparison works at all.
Apple were successful because existing smartphones were not particularly good and the iphone was a massive improvement. It was also not much more expensive due to the clever tie-ups Apple had with the US phone providers - the US market is where Apple really has a large market share.
Cars today, however, are very good, even the rubbish ones.
Any EV does require some additional inconvenience, particularly with regards to charging and all the old arguments about how, when, and how long it takes to charge.
This continues to apply to all EVs today, even Teslas, though it is, of course lessening all the time as infrastructure continues to improve, along with the cars themselves.
The only real advantage that an EV has over an ICE car is fuel cost, but this is offset usually by a higher purchase price.
The other advantage some EVs have is fast acceleration, though that is a non-issue for most people - I have had my Golf for three years now, and can count on one hand the number of times I've put the pedal to the metal. Where I live, there's simply no point. Most of my overtaking is done on my bicycle!
It's easy enough for an existing car manufacturer to make an EV (a big part thanks to Tesla), and it makes sense for them to be getting into this now as the aforementioned infrastructure is now getting into place, along with billioins of State funding. Proof of this is in Hyundai and Nissan-Renault's offerings.
The only real similarity between Apple and Tesla is that they have both gone for the US Market. The Model 3's main competitiors are the Japanese Sedans (Camry, Accord, Altima etc) that represent a huge chunk, not the tiny "Compact Executive" Segment containing BMWs and Audis etc). These sedans can cost almost as much as a Model 3, and including running costs, they are comparable.
Should Tesla get significant traction cross the USA in this segment, it will do ok, but much remains to be seen as to whether the Japanese can or will respond. Toyota are well placed with billions of miles of data from their hybrids, I'm not so sure about Honda, though.
As for the rest of the world, it's a very different picture. VW sells 8.6% of its cars in the USA:https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2020/01/volkswagen-group-records-higher-deliveries-in-2019.html
It's stronghold is, of course, Europe where I expect it will continue to dominate the market with their EV offereings as they transition of ver the next 10-15 years.
I think there is a big Euro-centric slant to discussions on here (it's a UK site for the most part) and people tend to view VW as the largest player, but that's not true at all worldwide.
Anyway, I hope some of that makes sense. Enjoy!
Apple were successful because existing smartphones were not particularly good and the iphone was a massive improvement. It was also not much more expensive due to the clever tie-ups Apple had with the US phone providers - the US market is where Apple really has a large market share.
Cars today, however, are very good, even the rubbish ones.
Any EV does require some additional inconvenience, particularly with regards to charging and all the old arguments about how, when, and how long it takes to charge.
This continues to apply to all EVs today, even Teslas, though it is, of course lessening all the time as infrastructure continues to improve, along with the cars themselves.
The only real advantage that an EV has over an ICE car is fuel cost, but this is offset usually by a higher purchase price.
The other advantage some EVs have is fast acceleration, though that is a non-issue for most people - I have had my Golf for three years now, and can count on one hand the number of times I've put the pedal to the metal. Where I live, there's simply no point. Most of my overtaking is done on my bicycle!
It's easy enough for an existing car manufacturer to make an EV (a big part thanks to Tesla), and it makes sense for them to be getting into this now as the aforementioned infrastructure is now getting into place, along with billioins of State funding. Proof of this is in Hyundai and Nissan-Renault's offerings.
The only real similarity between Apple and Tesla is that they have both gone for the US Market. The Model 3's main competitiors are the Japanese Sedans (Camry, Accord, Altima etc) that represent a huge chunk, not the tiny "Compact Executive" Segment containing BMWs and Audis etc). These sedans can cost almost as much as a Model 3, and including running costs, they are comparable.
Should Tesla get significant traction cross the USA in this segment, it will do ok, but much remains to be seen as to whether the Japanese can or will respond. Toyota are well placed with billions of miles of data from their hybrids, I'm not so sure about Honda, though.
As for the rest of the world, it's a very different picture. VW sells 8.6% of its cars in the USA:https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2020/01/volkswagen-group-records-higher-deliveries-in-2019.html
It's stronghold is, of course, Europe where I expect it will continue to dominate the market with their EV offereings as they transition of ver the next 10-15 years.
I think there is a big Euro-centric slant to discussions on here (it's a UK site for the most part) and people tend to view VW as the largest player, but that's not true at all worldwide.
Anyway, I hope some of that makes sense. Enjoy!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
agreedanonymous said:
[redacted]
No toxic gasses when inside/confined spaces, possibility of generating your own energy and on a larger scale not be dependent on OPEC. Not having to stop at a petrol station ever again. Great traction thanks to much easier torque vectoring, better packaging for more practicality and safety. Possibly lower TCO in the future. There are probably some more I'm forgetting.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yet plenty of phones did that before the iPhone?As for the downsides, smartphones were expensive and fragile compared to what we had. On top of that you had to plug them in EVERY NIGHT.
.First driver-less delivery service approved in California.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55438969
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55438969
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff