Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
ZesPak said:
Tuna said:
Given that Apple could crush Tesla overnight, I suspect Musk is nervous that he didn't manage to do a deal.
Apple doesn't need ten years - they've got just short of $200 billion cash on hand and could build out an equivalent to Tesla's entire infrastructure pretty much whenever they wanted. The reason Musk took ten years is because he had to raise every cent along the way.
Apple doesn't need ten years - they've got just short of $200 billion cash on hand and could build out an equivalent to Tesla's entire infrastructure pretty much whenever they wanted. The reason Musk took ten years is because he had to raise every cent along the way.
Stop it, you're killing me.
Of course it's not as simple as that - and there are a tonne of reasons why Apple are very unlikely to step into the car industry, but their finances are such that they could "buy" a mainstream car manufacturer (not just a minnow like Lucid) tomorrow if they wanted to.
I've worked for a couple of companies building "new" tech, and their biggest fears are that one of the giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google) suddenly pays attention to them. You can be wiped out overnight.
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
Tuna said:
Given that Apple could crush Tesla overnight, I suspect Musk is nervous that he didn't manage to do a deal.
Apple doesn't need ten years - they've got just short of $200 billion cash on hand and could build out an equivalent to Tesla's entire infrastructure pretty much whenever they wanted. The reason Musk took ten years is because he had to raise every cent along the way.
Apple doesn't need ten years - they've got just short of $200 billion cash on hand and could build out an equivalent to Tesla's entire infrastructure pretty much whenever they wanted. The reason Musk took ten years is because he had to raise every cent along the way.
Stop it, you're killing me.
Of course it's not as simple as that - and there are a tonne of reasons why Apple are very unlikely to step into the car industry, but their finances are such that they could "buy" a mainstream car manufacturer (not just a minnow like Lucid) tomorrow if they wanted to.
I've worked for a couple of companies building "new" tech, and their biggest fears are that one of the giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google) suddenly pays attention to them. You can be wiped out overnight.
They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
Tuna said:
I've worked for a couple of companies building "new" tech, and their biggest fears are that one of the giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google) suddenly pays attention to them. You can be wiped out overnight.
We're talking about a company with thousands of superchargers worldwide. A network with locations that has powerlines, agreements, contracts and permits.It's not a startup with a warehouse converted to a "production line" and 200 employees.
I have *no doubt Apple could match it if they want. But I'm also sure it won't be "overnight" and as simple as you make it out to be.
Edited by ZesPak on Wednesday 23 December 16:07
I remember when google set up in my niche, I was quietly packing my bags. Fortunately they decided it wasn't worth their while and shut down again. So it's a nice sweet spot. Big enough to sustain lots of smaller players, but small enough not to attract interest of the big boys.
EV is crossing over that line, but it's a question of whether Tesla can gain enough ground and to be fair, they are doing better than most expected on that front
EV is crossing over that line, but it's a question of whether Tesla can gain enough ground and to be fair, they are doing better than most expected on that front
ZesPak said:
We're talking about a company with thousands of superchargers worldwide. A network with locations that has powerlines, agreements, contracts and permits..
Nokia sells millions of phones worldwide. They have a network of distributors and deals with local providers. You can't move on the high street for a shop selling Nokia phones. They have all the wireless regulations and permits for operation in every country around the world. There's a vast industry of third party accessory makers....Yup.. nothing can touch them.
Tuna said:
Comparisons with mobile phones mean very little. Phones are a service, paid with a monthly contract, and replaced annually when a bigger better phone comes along. Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
ZesPak said:
We're talking about a company with thousands of superchargers worldwide. A network with locations that has powerlines, agreements, contracts and permits.
It's not a startup with a warehouse converted to a "production line" and 200 employees.
I have *no doubt Apple could match it if they want. But I'm also sure it won't be "overnight" and as simple as you make it out to be.
Yep, you will be working hard to catch up while tesla is still moving forward.It's not a startup with a warehouse converted to a "production line" and 200 employees.
I have *no doubt Apple could match it if they want. But I'm also sure it won't be "overnight" and as simple as you make it out to be.
Edited by ZesPak on Wednesday 23 December 16:07
It will be a mammoth undertaking.
ZesPak said:
Comparisons with mobile phones mean very little. Phones are a service, paid with a monthly contract, and replaced annually when a bigger better phone comes along. Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
Tesla is just like Apple.Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
If tomorrow, Apple announced they had a new battery technology that they think will take cars to the next level, and they're going to release an Apple car in a year's time using this new technology... what do you think that would to do Tesla sales, and the share price?
AstonZagato said:
Microsoft used to have (I haven't watched them recently) an acquisition strategy that focused on the 3rd/4th placed players.
They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
That's an interesting little snippet!They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
Comparisons with mobile phones mean very little. Phones are a service, paid with a monthly contract, and replaced annually when a bigger better phone comes along. Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
Tesla is just like Apple.Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
And if anyone brings a better battery tech, that'll do wonders for their share and will probably give the Tesla share a hit. But that wasn't the discussion at hand. You're really losing your marbles.
Edited by ZesPak on Wednesday 23 December 17:08
ZesPak said:
It's one thing that you're embarrassing yourself. But it was your quote. You're the hypocrite here.
I've heard both argued by Tesla fans, certain that the company must forever grow. You seem to have your nose out of joint to have it pointed out that there are competitive threats out there of any sort whatsoever.
Tuna said:
I've heard both argued by Tesla fans, certain that the company must forever grow.
You seem to have your nose out of joint to have it pointed out that there are competitive threats out there of any sort whatsoever.
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.You seem to have your nose out of joint to have it pointed out that there are competitive threats out there of any sort whatsoever.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Well the parallels of the smartphone and EV market are too many.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
American company turns up with radically new product.
Incumbents (mostly european + Japanese) try to innovate to compete
Chinese turn up with their versions.
I am waiting if the following happens
American company continues to lead the market
Europeans fade into irrelevance.
Chinese become major players.
ZesPak said:
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
You need to work on your comprehension skills. I was very clear it's extremely unlikely Apple would do so - the corporate stuff behind that sentence would take a lot of digging into, but it's there.I was specifically answering another comment that Apple must regret not buying Tesla when they had the chance. The point that there is very little stopping them entering the market is pertinent to that particular nugget, as was AstonZagato's comment about Microsoft.
I doubt Apple give a monkey's about not buying Telsa - you can rebut that particular claim if you like, it was the one being made. I am not for one minute suggesting that Apple are about to do so, or that they are about to enter the market. Again, as I said, it's extremely unlikely (but not impossible).
So... wind your neck in you muppet. You don't need to come riding to the rescue of Tesla here. You're just making yourself look silly.
EddieSteadyGo said:
AstonZagato said:
Microsoft used to have (I haven't watched them recently) an acquisition strategy that focused on the 3rd/4th placed players.
They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
That's an interesting little snippet!They'd wait for a new segment to become established. They'd look at the main players in that space. They'd ignore the No.1 ("We're number one - you can't touch us and we want a bajillion dollars to sell"). They'd ignore No.2 ("We're number two but we are about to be number one - a bajillion too, please"). They'd go straight to No.3 and No.4 ("We can never catch number one. 1 and 2 will kill us eventually. But if we sell to Microsoft, they will make us No 1. overnight and we can kill them").
Recent developments and security components illustrate this especially well. Then it’s a strategy of bundle when it’s “good enough” and charge a monthly subscription. And for the bigger deals, it’s all done on the golf course.
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
Comparisons with mobile phones mean very little. Phones are a service, paid with a monthly contract, and replaced annually when a bigger better phone comes along. Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
Tesla is just like Apple.Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is just like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
Tesla is nothing like Apple.
If tomorrow, Apple announced they had a new battery technology that they think will take cars to the next level, and they're going to release an Apple car in a year's time using this new technology... what do you think that would to do Tesla sales, and the share price?
As for Apple building a car? Yeah not seeing that in what we consider a normal sense. They will contract out manufacturing and will most likely partner on a network for charging. I suspect their USP will be the connected nature and ease of use. It’s going to be interesting to see what they come up with, but I am sure it’s going to be divisive nonetheless.
Oh and on the $200bn in the bank, that’s not for spending. That’s for supporting the business, strategic direction and propping up the share price. There is intrinsic value from having the cash, but dropping it all on building a car and a charging network? Yeah, that’s a quick way to rank your share price. Apple make a ton of money per customer they have, switching to making cars (not impossible) is a low margin market so can’t see
The market liking that much. But hey, they got into the phone business, so I could be totally off the mark here. And who knew they would be making general purpose CPU’s in 2020!!
ZesPak said:
Must be hard for you to see your favorite company to hate do so well.
Just keep your hate consistent and stop contradicting yourself, it'll make you look less stupid.
Victim mentality too? No hate at all for Tesla. Some cynicism about their current situation, but I'm actually very happy to see the state of the art being advanced.Just keep your hate consistent and stop contradicting yourself, it'll make you look less stupid.
jamoor said:
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Europeans fade into irrelevance.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
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