Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
skwdenyer said:
This reminds of when Lexus arrived. Execs at Mercedes couldn't work out how they could make money on the LS400 at the price-point until they tore it down. Design-for-production is still very much where the game is in turning a profit on cars.
Thats a good example! At the time, every one said that Lexus would 'destroy' the existing luxury brands like Mercedes and BMW. And yes, it did steal a lot of sales for some time. However, what is interesting is the long story though. Just thought I would check sales in the last 10 years across these luxury products - LS400 sales have dropped from 20k-30k in the 90's to around 7k in late 2010's to 2020's.... BMW 7 series out sells the Lexus by around 50%, and thats before we get to the S-class! So yeah, for a good decade, Lexus did really well, but the Germans have done well in recent years. Is the LS model bad? Absolutely not, its an amazing car. And we can be damn sure the Lexus is a LOT more reliable than anything from BMW and Mercedes. I dont want to suggest that the brand strength has won, but there is something here and while the whole move to EV is a longer term trend, dont underestimate the strength of the other brands, including Toyota and the Korean brands, as well as the Germans.skwdenyer said:
This reminds of when Lexus arrived. Execs at Mercedes couldn't work out how they could make money on the LS400 at the price-point until they tore it down. Design-for-production is still very much where the game is in turning a profit on cars.
Oh absolutely, but that is something every manufacturer can apply - we can place a pretty safe bet that every major car company has seen a full teardown of every Tesla model since inception. They also make choices about reparability, parts sharing, capital investment and so on. It's worth remembering that the Giga Press is not exclusive to Tesla - it's made by an Italian company (who also named it - for once this isn't a Musk-ism!). So these things are choices being actively made by manufacturers rather than unavoidable facts of life.
For instance, VW could switch to a Giga Press for the ID.4 chassis to reduce costs on that one car - but instead it uses a more complex shared platform in order to be able to make however many models it currently does. Tesla makes one car, VW makes a dozen - and the VW group then benefits from segmenting the market. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but that these are choices. Most of the fanboi stuff is picking metrics that are natural consequences of Tesla still being a new entrant with a limited market range. A large manufacturer like VW doesn't care if it has half the gross margin of Tesla across it's range, when it sells twenty cars for every one that Tesla does.
Tesla sales plummet to under 150 cars in October, outsold by Smart cars and the legendary Hyundai Tuscan sold 12 cars for every Tesla
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
Of course its just the cyclical nature of Tesla deliveries, but if it had been the best selling car in the month, somebody would have felt compelled to post
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
Of course its just the cyclical nature of Tesla deliveries, but if it had been the best selling car in the month, somebody would have felt compelled to post
Tuna said:
skwdenyer said:
This reminds of when Lexus arrived. Execs at Mercedes couldn't work out how they could make money on the LS400 at the price-point until they tore it down. Design-for-production is still very much where the game is in turning a profit on cars.
Oh absolutely, but that is something every manufacturer can apply - we can place a pretty safe bet that every major car company has seen a full teardown of every Tesla model since inception. They also make choices about reparability, parts sharing, capital investment and so on. It's worth remembering that the Giga Press is not exclusive to Tesla - it's made by an Italian company (who also named it - for once this isn't a Musk-ism!). So these things are choices being actively made by manufacturers rather than unavoidable facts of life.
For instance, VW could switch to a Giga Press for the ID.4 chassis to reduce costs on that one car - but instead it uses a more complex shared platform in order to be able to make however many models it currently does. Tesla makes one car, VW makes a dozen - and the VW group then benefits from segmenting the market. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but that these are choices. Most of the fanboi stuff is picking metrics that are natural consequences of Tesla still being a new entrant with a limited market range. A large manufacturer like VW doesn't care if it has half the gross margin of Tesla across it's range, when it sells twenty cars for every one that Tesla does.
There is genuine engineering innovation going on. At the same time (and the reason I mentioned the seats), much of the industry does seem to have become complacent and content to be just integrators - only offering new tech when it is available from their favourite Tier N supplier. Tesla does seem to be an outlier (and a good one in my book) for creating its own tech. The seat is a good example - an OEM supplier part would arrive as a module with a controller and a canbus connector; the Tesla is an in-house product, engineered for production to fit only the Tesla body controller.
In recent past, many would say "but if you do your own modules, you can't benefit from the economies of scale offered by the supply chain" whereas Tesla have turned that on its head and said "by doing it ourselves, we can control every part and tease out every piece of margin."
So, yes, I do believe Tesla have been genuinely disruptive in this marketplace. Looking at the abomination the VW ID3 infotainment was at launch, for instance, shows how badly the VAGs of this world can get things. I don't doubt that was a bought-in part.
Are Tesla a complete outlier? No, of course not. But they are sufficiently different in approach and outlook: I do not accept right now that VAG necessarily *could* produce an ID4 at 30% gpm even if they junked the shared platform.
Tuna said:
skwdenyer said:
This reminds of when Lexus arrived. Execs at Mercedes couldn't work out how they could make money on the LS400 at the price-point until they tore it down. Design-for-production is still very much where the game is in turning a profit on cars.
..For instance, VW could switch to a Giga Press for the ID.4 chassis to reduce costs on that one car - but instead it uses a more complex shared platform in order to be able to make however many models it currently does. Tesla makes one car, VW makes a dozen - and the VW group then benefits from segmenting the market.What they could have done is built a ground-up EV platform that is shared across multiple models but chose not to which is a strategically unwise decision IMHO as a shared platform (EV/ICE) is a compromise and that's perhaps because they are encumbered by their ICE legacy.
TameBritishMuslim said:
Tuna said:
skwdenyer said:
This reminds of when Lexus arrived. Execs at Mercedes couldn't work out how they could make money on the LS400 at the price-point until they tore it down. Design-for-production is still very much where the game is in turning a profit on cars.
..For instance, VW could switch to a Giga Press for the ID.4 chassis to reduce costs on that one car - but instead it uses a more complex shared platform in order to be able to make however many models it currently does. Tesla makes one car, VW makes a dozen - and the VW group then benefits from segmenting the market.skwdenyer said:
There is genuine engineering innovation going on. At the same time (and the reason I mentioned the seats), much of the industry does seem to have become complacent and content to be just integrators - only offering new tech when it is available from their favourite Tier N supplier. Tesla does seem to be an outlier (and a good one in my book) for creating its own tech. The seat is a good example - an OEM supplier part would arrive as a module with a controller and a canbus connector; the Tesla is an in-house product, engineered for production to fit only the Tesla body controller..
I think you're missing a point here - the rest of the industry are managing risk. If a seat is a clunker, or fashion changes, or the supplier is having difficulties, they can switch to a different one. Porsche offers a range of seats for their cars, and certain suppliers are 'trusted brands' in their own right. By going heavy on vertical integration, Musk bears all the risk for every component that goes into a car - from the unreliable handles to the dodgy boot catches. If people say his seats are uncomfortable and difficult to adjust, he's got to redesign the lot of them or stick with an unwanted model.Look at the Cybertruck. It's a very risky proposition, but Musk is putting very high capital investment behind it (he can afford to with the stock price!). If it only sells in middling numbers, he's stuck with a very expensive die and a wildly over-specced press. On top of that, the innovation has delayed it's launch significantly - long enough for Rivian to be putting out what looks like a very attractive offering in the mean time. Theirs is a much more conservative design, but some of the reviews suggest it's much closer to what the market wants.
Again, I'm not saying one is better than the other, but by focussing on "the best tech" in a very Silicon Valley manner, it's easy to miss out on the trade-offs that are being made.
TameBritishMuslim said:
No they won't because they can't. Firstly, they don't have the necessary alloy to do it at that scale (at the time of writing) and secondly, 'just switching' involves making redundant many robotics, people and processes which further adds cost. .
Sorry, this is nonsense. Are you claiming that IDRA build a press that no company can use until they independently develop an appropriate alloy???And honestly, you don't seem to understand how a new platform comes on line - or for that matter what the VW EV platform actually is.
skwdenyer said:
There is genuine engineering innovation going on. At the same time (and the reason I mentioned the seats), much of the industry does seem to have become complacent and content to be just integrators - only offering new tech when it is available from their favourite Tier N supplier. Tesla does seem to be an outlier (and a good one in my book) for creating its own tech. The seat is a good example - an OEM supplier part would arrive as a module with a controller and a canbus connector; the Tesla is an in-house product, engineered for production to fit only the Tesla body controller.
Yes, and if it works for Tesla, thats great. But its also a lot more complex than that. Tesla has struggled in a number of areas where it simply shouldnt (both in-house and third party components). Door locks, seals, screens and numerous other aspects. The 'we know better' approach can work, but it also comes at a significant overhead too. Yeah, so they can save a few dollars on a switch mechanism, great. But what about parts supply? Long term usage? etc? So far Tesla's seem to hold up well to long term abuse, but as more and more hit 100k+ miles, I have questions around paint quality, interior fit and finish and longevity of components.Does that mean that they will be worse than other manufacturers? Not sure - and its a valid comment. Take Mini, who's interior components will simply degrade and fall off. Possibly the worst case scenario. But many other manufacturers do a good job of utilizing third party components for longevity. Lets see how this pans out.
skwdenyer said:
So, yes, I do believe Tesla have been genuinely disruptive in this marketplace. Looking at the abomination the VW ID3 infotainment was at launch, for instance, shows how badly the VAGs of this world can get things. I don't doubt that was a bought-in part.
Yeah, that didnt go well and heads did roll at VW for the drop in quality - this stuff simply shouldnt happen. But it does and they shipped a half-baked infotainment system. Shame, because comments here on PH and elsewhere suggest the couple of subsequent upgrades are pretty much fix the issues. Had they released with the updated version, they wouldnt have got the bad press. That said, all manufacturers have issues - Porsche GT3 (or was it GT2?) recalls for engine 'faults'? Or most recently the announced Tesla recall because the latest FSD upgrade 'affected the brakes'? Yeah, an upgrade that you get pushed caused an unfixable issue with the brake systems (I believe its the safety systems, not the day-to-day operation of them). And lets not forget that they released 10.3 or whatever it was, only to pull it back because it 'wasnt good enough'. All companies make mistakes and yes, you expect some to do better. But its how they deal with it, resolve customer issues and provide service - thats the difference, and they are all a big, errrmmm, crap.... Tesla included.No other car company has their own advanced materials specialists creating unique alloys, tesla share that team with spacex where they originally came from.
But regardless of that the question of gigapress and large castings is complex, more so when you already have factories setup with metal stamping and robots you'd have to retire, plus the advent of ahss.
Tesla's way here works for them but it's a higher risk and more expense than others who already have factories sat there.
But regardless of that the question of gigapress and large castings is complex, more so when you already have factories setup with metal stamping and robots you'd have to retire, plus the advent of ahss.
Tesla's way here works for them but it's a higher risk and more expense than others who already have factories sat there.
Tuna said:
TameBritishMuslim said:
No they won't because they can't. Firstly, they don't have the necessary alloy to do it at that scale (at the time of writing) and secondly, 'just switching' involves making redundant many robotics, people and processes which further adds cost. .
Sorry, this is nonsense. Are you claiming that IDRA build a press that no company can use until they independently develop an appropriate alloy???And honestly, you don't seem to understand how a new platform comes on line - or for that matter what the VW EV platform actually is.
Haven't you heard of Sandy Munro?
Tell me who else has ordered IDRA's 6000, 8000 and 12000 tonne Gigapresses?
Edited by TameBritishMuslim on Thursday 4th November 18:08
TameBritishMuslim said:
Haven't you heard of Sandy Munro?
Be cautious with Munro. He has jumped off the diving board and is going deep into the Tesla swimming pool. Yes, he is aware of a lot of the manufacturing processes and has a lot of experience in this area, but equally his objectivity around a lot of things is questionable at best currently. Yes, he has made some valid comments and thats reasonable. He's also jumped on the crazy train and is riding it all the way....
TameBritishMuslim said:
Tell me who else has ordered IDRA's 6000, 8000 and 12000 tonne Gigapresses?
You've completely missed the point I was making, haven't you?Using the Gigapress is an indication of a choice, not a measure of whether they've chosen the "right" solution.
Compare the production processes of Lotus, Aston, Mclaren and Porsche - all different, all with high margins, all producing excellent cars.
RobDickinson said:
Munroe has been pushing large castings for nearly 2 decades though.
I think he's big on tesla because he's fed up with slow pace of change from the others
Fair... and yes, there does need to be progress... but, as long as change actually benefits something. Change for the sake of change makes little sense. If it benefits the product - safety, crash worthiness etc - great. But I dont buy into the whole, got to be disrupting to be successful. I think he's big on tesla because he's fed up with slow pace of change from the others
Heres Johnny said:
Tesla sales plummet to under 150 cars in October, outsold by Smart cars and the legendary Hyundai Tuscan sold 12 cars for every Tesla
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
Of course its just the cyclical nature of Tesla deliveries, but if it had been the best selling car in the month, somebody would have felt compelled to post
Yeah, cherry picking data points for supporting statements is not good (on both sides of the argument). I see that the response around the Model S outselling the S-class, 7 series and Panamera combined got skipped over.... too much misinformation gets pushed around.https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
Of course its just the cyclical nature of Tesla deliveries, but if it had been the best selling car in the month, somebody would have felt compelled to post
And :cough: the Hyundai Tucson is a pretty good car.... surprisingly so, if you are into mid-size SUV's....
Tuna said:
Sorry, this is nonsense. Are you claiming that IDRA build a press that no company can use until they independently develop an appropriate alloy??
To add to this , here is Tesla's patent for the alloy. HTH.https://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=P...
Its not that others cant use a gigapress- IDRA's chinese parent makes them and sells them to many other companies (tesla isnt even the largest buyer).
But the process they use is different, because of the allot, no heat treating or machining needed etc.
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