Hydrogen is the future, not BEVs?

Hydrogen is the future, not BEVs?

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Discussion

GT9

8,035 posts

187 months

Sunday 18th February 2024
quotequote all
More evidence (as if f it was needed!) that hydrogen is the weapon of choice for those predisposed to shenanigans and high jinx involving funding.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/hydrogen-sc...

GT9

8,035 posts

187 months

Wednesday 21st February 2024
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
So that takes us back to hydrogen being better than electricity in remote or extreme environments where electricity is hard to transport or batteries hard to be efficient.
And yet another study appears with the same conclusion:
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/analysis/hydrogen-...

“A computational model that considers multiple EU energy system transformation pathways has shown that the best way to achieve the EU climate neutrality target [of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050] is for policymakers to prioritise direct electrification for passenger cars and low-temperature heating, and indirect electrification via hydrogen and synthetic fuels for aviation, shipping, chemical industry, and electricity storage”

I hope nobody paid good money for that, given that reading this thread is free.

And once again the issue of fugitive feedstock/product raises its ugly head:

"The study does, however, point out that it did not take into account the climate impact from hydrogen leakage — H2 itself is a potent greenhouse gas. A 'non-negligible' amount of hydrogen leakage and its impact on net-zero “would affect our results and might lead, in particular, to a smaller role of direct hydrogen use."

otolith

61,428 posts

219 months

Wednesday 21st February 2024
quotequote all
GT9 said:
More evidence (as if f it was needed!) that hydrogen is the weapon of choice for those predisposed to shenanigans and high jinx involving funding.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/hydrogen-sc...
They’re all boondoggle projects.

DonkeyApple

62,383 posts

184 months

Tuesday 27th February 2024
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The number of hydrogen projects seeking pre IPO funding via the schmuck pensioner money market does appear to have dried up now. What's interesting is that NH3 projects look to be starting to appear. NH3 is the potential holy grail in that it solves many of the problems of H. Plus, the existing industries can't switch to GH (because it doesn't exist industrially and won't for many years) but can change the colour of fossil fuel hydrogen to any of the others.

As a wonder gas that will save the planet and allow the old and stoopid to keep driving trucks they don't have in cities they don't live in, it's looking pretty good.

What's actually genuinely interesting about NH3 is that we do need to use every molecule of GH produced over the next 20 years to clean that industry up, which is why HIF knows their production once scaleable will be going to support the German ammonia industry not wasted on eFuels other than to allow VW et al to keep racing cars without being cancelled.

But I'm not sure there won't be a catastrophic upheaval in this market as these industrial plants, like nearly all industrial plants are located based on the proximity of at least one of their raw materials. In this case electricity and then hydrogen. Nitrogen can be obtained anywhere on the planet so is generally irrelevant.

The ammonia industry has locations in Europe specifically because Europe has had abundant fossil fuel energy and abundant fossil fuel hydrogen.

Green ammonia obviously specifically uses green hydrogen and green electricity. Neither of which are abundantly available at or near the existing fossil fuel defined industrial locations. Germany has had to go all the way to South America to find potential for abundant excess green energy.

And I think there lies in the clue to a painful Western reality which is that new energy is creating a resource environment specifically identical to the original drivers of colonialism as the very planetary characteristics that tend to define why some nations became developed and others remained undeveloped tend to be the exact same characteristics for new energy production efficiencies. And this time we can't just rush in and seize this resource potential which means many of Europe's legacy, dirty industrial manufacturing could easily be out completed by the developing nations who become the entities with access to the cheap and abundant energy required.

Anyway, as the hype over Hydrogen being the cure for everything from piles to a neighbour that's the wrong colour, I have a feeling that as more and more NH3 prospectus arrive in door steps and as more journos get wined and dined by brokers to write innocuous, innocent third party articles that accidentally promote the penny share machine we could start to see Hydrogen bounce back but in a 4 way with a big hunky Nitrogen atom.

Mikehig

886 posts

76 months

Friday 1st March 2024
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Toyota is offering colossal discounts on their FCEV in California:
https://jalopnik.com/toyota-offers-40-000-discount...
As that's the market with the "best" hydrogen infrastructure, aiui, it doesn't look good: $40,000 off list; $15,000 fuel subsidy; 0% finance. They are close to paying people to take them away!

98elise

29,690 posts

176 months

Friday 1st March 2024
quotequote all
Mikehig said:
Toyota is offering colossal discounts on their FCEV in California:
https://jalopnik.com/toyota-offers-40-000-discount...
As that's the market with the "best" hydrogen infrastructure, aiui, it doesn't look good: $40,000 off list; $15,000 fuel subsidy; 0% finance. They are close to paying people to take them away!
There has always been huge discounts and grants on the Mirai, so that they have basically been giving them away for years. Sales remain tiny.

Toyota are losing a packet on each one they sell.

D4rez

1,667 posts

71 months

Friday 1st March 2024
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98elise said:
There has always been huge discounts and grants on the Mirai, so that they have basically been giving them away for years. Sales remain tiny.

Toyota are losing a packet on each one they sell.
Hilarious that some on here hold them up as geniuses for following an alternative path. Toyoda needs to step aside before the brand goes the way of Blockbuster

DonkeyApple

62,383 posts

184 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
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D4rez said:
Hilarious that some on here hold them up as geniuses for following an alternative path. Toyoda needs to step aside before the brand goes the way of Blockbuster
It's just a small segment of their business and they're only putting a small amount of money into it.

It makes sense to look at the car market from Toyota's perspective. They sell millions upon millions of cars globally every year but generally to the least affluent end of the new car market. This is the consumer segment that cannot yet switch to EV nor is expected to for well over a decade. Toyota also have by far the largest data set for how hybrids are used. Plus, they sell into countries where the infrastructure for charging battery electric cars is multiple decades away because these nations, while we politely refer to them today as 'developing nations' are in fact kleptocratic third world dung holes still and no attempt to rebrand will change their constant inability to create reliable utility infrastructures when all the money to do is sent to Switzerland.

Using a hydrogen gas that doesn't yet commercially exist yet and when it does will be bought up by the existing hydrogen industry in almost all developed nations and where using a chemical battery is very clearly the smarter solution despite just how rubbish they persist in being is clearly a comical argument that borders on the mental. But from Toyota's perspective they're just putting a bit of money into an alternate energy storage solution for EVs to have on the shelf for the third world where we desperately need to decarbonise their transport but it won't matter how much battery EVs improve the fundamental problem of there not being many plug sockets and many of the plug sockets that do exist don't have any electricity going to them because the country is a sthole being asset stripped, raped and exploited by inbred, indigenous cretins.

And while you are using Western grants, subsidies and tax benefits to develop this potential energy storage solution for use in third world dumps why not get a bit of cash flow in from some dumbass Western mug punters who'll buy anything if you offer a big enough discount.

To be honest, I see very clearly why Toyota and others would do work on having a GH solution but don't get why consumers in developed nations such as the U.K. get round to thinking it's for them.

heebeegeetee

29,483 posts

263 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
It's just a small segment of their business and they're only putting a small amount of money into it.

It makes sense to look at the car market from Toyota's perspective. They sell millions upon millions of cars globally every year but generally to the least affluent end of the new car market. This is the consumer segment that cannot yet switch to EV nor is expected to for well over a decade. Toyota also have by far the largest data set for how hybrids are used. Plus, they sell into countries where the infrastructure for charging battery electric cars is multiple decades away because these nations, while we politely refer to them today as 'developing nations' are in fact kleptocratic third world dung holes still and no attempt to rebrand will change their constant inability to create reliable utility infrastructures when all the money to do is sent to Switzerland.

Using a hydrogen gas that doesn't yet commercially exist yet and when it does will be bought up by the existing hydrogen industry in almost all developed nations and where using a chemical battery is very clearly the smarter solution despite just how rubbish they persist in being is clearly a comical argument that borders on the mental. But from Toyota's perspective they're just putting a bit of money into an alternate energy storage solution for EVs to have on the shelf for the third world where we desperately need to decarbonise their transport but it won't matter how much battery EVs improve the fundamental problem of there not being many plug sockets and many of the plug sockets that do exist don't have any electricity going to them because the country is a sthole being asset stripped, raped and exploited by inbred, indigenous cretins.

And while you are using Western grants, subsidies and tax benefits to develop this potential energy storage solution for use in third world dumps why not get a bit of cash flow in from some dumbass Western mug punters who'll buy anything if you offer a big enough discount.

To be honest, I see very clearly why Toyota and others would do work on having a GH solution but don't get why consumers in developed nations such as the U.K. get round to thinking it's for them.
A good post that, I enjoyed it. smile

wisbech

3,674 posts

136 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
It's just a small segment of their business and they're only putting a small amount of money into it.

It makes sense to look at the car market from Toyota's perspective. They sell millions upon millions of cars globally every year but generally to the least affluent end of the new car market. This is the consumer segment that cannot yet switch to EV nor is expected to for well over a decade. Toyota also have by far the largest data set for how hybrids are used. Plus, they sell into countries where the infrastructure for charging battery electric cars is multiple decades away because these nations, while we politely refer to them today as 'developing nations' are in fact kleptocratic third world dung holes still and no attempt to rebrand will change their constant inability to create reliable utility infrastructures when all the money to do is sent to Switzerland.

Using a hydrogen gas that doesn't yet commercially exist yet and when it does will be bought up by the existing hydrogen industry in almost all developed nations and where using a chemical battery is very clearly the smarter solution despite just how rubbish they persist in being is clearly a comical argument that borders on the mental. But from Toyota's perspective they're just putting a bit of money into an alternate energy storage solution for EVs to have on the shelf for the third world where we desperately need to decarbonise their transport but it won't matter how much battery EVs improve the fundamental problem of there not being many plug sockets and many of the plug sockets that do exist don't have any electricity going to them because the country is a sthole being asset stripped, raped and exploited by inbred, indigenous cretins.

And while you are using Western grants, subsidies and tax benefits to develop this potential energy storage solution for use in third world dumps why not get a bit of cash flow in from some dumbass Western mug punters who'll buy anything if you offer a big enough discount.

To be honest, I see very clearly why Toyota and others would do work on having a GH solution but don't get why consumers in developed nations such as the U.K. get round to thinking it's for them.
Not sure if true - you can see the sales figures here:

https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/productio...

- they sell more Lexus than Daihatsu (their "value" brand aimed at the less affluent)
- sales to kelptocratic dung holes are quite low. All of Africa is 240k (out of 10.3m) Pakistan 20k. non Gulf Middle East 120k. I guess you could argue that Philippines is about there as well (200k). But (for example) my last trip to see family in Indonesia, there were a surprising number of EV around - mostly KIA.

Plus the obvious point that if EV aren't useful due infrastructure, hydrogen will be even less useful. Aussie outback farmers and NGOs in Afganistan will probably still be buying new Landcruiser 70s in 2035...



GT9

8,035 posts

187 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
1 in 50 people are into BDSM.
EVs are expected to outnumber hydrogen cars by about the same.
There will always be a small community of buyers actively seeking out the most painful experience.

plfrench

3,517 posts

283 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
GT9 said:
1 in 50 people are into BDSM.
EVs are expected to outnumber hydrogen cars by about the same.
There will always be a small community of buyers actively seeking out the most painful experience.
Just to clarify, you mean 1:50 ratio globally not in the UK? Otherwise that seems a crazily high number of hydrogen vehicles.

GT9

8,035 posts

187 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
plfrench said:
Just to clarify, you mean 1:50 ratio globally not in the UK? Otherwise that seems a crazily high number of hydrogen vehicles.
Globally, concentrated in East Asia.

Michael_B

1,027 posts

115 months

Saturday 2nd March 2024
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Plus, they sell into countries where the infrastructure for charging battery electric cars is multiple decades away because these nations, while we politely refer to them today as 'developing nations' are in fact kleptocratic third world dung holes still and no attempt to rebrand will change their constant inability to create reliable utility infrastructures when all the money to do is sent to Switzerland.
That money is just resting in our accounts!
</Father Ted>

wink


Edited by Michael_B on Saturday 2nd March 22:23

98elise

29,690 posts

176 months

Thursday 18th April 2024
quotequote all
Q1 sales down 70% in the US...

https://insideevs.com/news/716100/us-hydrogen-car-...

That's with the huge discounts available where they are virtually giving them away! If I could get the same discounts on BEV's I would replace all 3 of our cars in a heartbeat!

PushedDover

6,545 posts

68 months

Thursday 18th April 2024
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Restarting projects here that would use liquid H2 for offshore wind farm vessels.

tamore

8,787 posts

299 months

Thursday 18th April 2024
quotequote all
PushedDover said:
Restarting projects here that would use liquid H2 for offshore wind farm vessels.
makes sense given the industry.

PushedDover

6,545 posts

68 months

Thursday 18th April 2024
quotequote all
tamore said:
PushedDover said:
Restarting projects here that would use liquid H2 for offshore wind farm vessels.
makes sense given the industry.
Also endurance over straight battery

dvs_dave

9,040 posts

240 months

Friday 19th April 2024
quotequote all
98elise said:
Q1 sales down 70% in the US...

https://insideevs.com/news/716100/us-hydrogen-car-...

That's with the huge discounts available where they are virtually giving them away! If I could get the same discounts on BEV's I would replace all 3 of our cars in a heartbeat!
No doubt driven off the back of this; Shell closing all its existing and then cancelling a planned 48 new H2 filling locations.

California’s Hydrogen Economy Dealt A Hammer Blow By Shell’s Exit

Pretty dire prospects that you’d have to be mental to buy into it, even with the discounts. You’d be better off with a Fisker! Lol

DonkeyApple

62,383 posts

184 months

Friday 19th April 2024
quotequote all
Big clear out of the various eco scams, propaganda projects and mad hedges is underway as they've become too costly to perpetrate in terms of debt and VC financing.

Vast amounts of the H bullst that was being spewed out by the German regional powers to 'support' the funnelling of taxpayer funds into private projects that generated high fee streams has declined significantly as it has done among the regional powers in the U.K. where the provincial minds are beginning to wake up to a reality that they've just been sending all the money they were supposed to be using to feed and house their poor to paying the school fees of people in Frankfurt and London.

Money returning to have a value means that those with the coBreil of it have to suddenly start being careful as to where they put it. The days of just hurling £millions at any old tat with a good story and it's value increasing or the investors not caring if it goes pop because they've got lots of cash coming in the other side is over. We are finally seeing some healthy natural selection and lots of total tripe is going to get quietly put down.

Fisker is a perma loser who you'd only back at the height of a mad spending frenzy. If you're seriously looking for the next Musk then it's not ever Fisker. His enterprise is very likely to follow his traditional model or talking about great things and then revealing some kind of Aldi, middle aisle tat that falls apart in a few days before going begging for more free money and being told to FO as joker time is over.

Most of the SNP's hydrogen investments that were seemingly all done out of Glasgow and appear to possibly involve a lot of connected parties are all burning cash still but are very unlikely to get any more taxpayer money and won't get any private money as they were mostly just schemes to convert grant money into fee income via random 'investments' that happed to fit the grant requirements at the time.

The same is happening in the EU as the transport schemes mostly all had cash burns that guaranteed the consuming of all the grant funds inside of 5 years and the bulk of that burn has been professional fees and payments to other entities.

I get the feeling entities like Ripple Energy is on the list. Their model is quite clever in that they found a way to sell unregulated, over priced investments to pensioners and naive white collar workers needing to impress work colleagues about how much more they care about things that need to be seen being cared about. It's a genius wheeze as unlike flogging penny shares there's next to no regulatory requirements and during a free money era and endless supply of absolute idiots who will willingly convert real actual money into a vague assurance of getting bits of it back over the next 20 years and maybe it'll be this sort of value but maybe it won't, who really knows, but hey, saving the planet while being clearly smarter than the you despise down at the bowls clubs or at the desk next to you in accounts. Cash burn looks big with what looks like 5 big mouths to feed and the number of mugs wanting to throw away real money has been contracting since rates began rising.

Tepeo the zero emission boiler company is another. I actually believe in thermal energy storage as a real potential solution to part of the UK's need to heat homes with renewables. But you can't build a good business around self co sunroom of the koolaid and trying to flog a seriously ugly, Soviet era object for £10k. Too many people with £10k to spend have nice homes and working eyes so don't want their £10k object to firstly look hideous but secondly look like a £500 turd some schmuck picked up from the Range. They're very well funded having done a good fund raising recently but their cash burn is huge and their idea of sales is to sit on social media whinging about how it's all the fault of the gubberment. They're dead in the water unless they can get the next Labour govt to quickly funnel them a load of cash and subsidies.

Daddy Bamford is still trying to talk about hydrogen to help his son's bus company out but it's beginning to look like filling half a bus with gas canisters so it can only work as a bus at 50% customer capacity and then needing a massive local grant to procure and store the hydrogen in an urban environment where if Gary were to flick his fag in the wrong direction that city is going to loose half a dozen streets, is not a smart, commercially viable solution versus simply migrating all diesel buses slowly to EV via hybrid.

Even the holy grail of grant hoovering and PR for folks who did O Levels in needlecraft and how to open a door, magically sucking CO2 out of the air is falling under more scrutiny as more and more people are beginning to suspect its a two part scam and that as there is almost no CO2 in the air the cost of powering fans to suck in the volume of air needed will blackout nations when the fans aren't clogged by birds getting sucked in from the other side of the planet. And the second part being run by the likes of VW is also beginning to fall apart as more people are beginning to work out that when they say 'direct air capture' many firms mean specifically burning coal to create a carbon dense gaseous stream, most of which they then try to capture before it all escapes into the atmosphere. There's no escaping the reality that the actual atmosphere does not hold enough carbon to synthesise non fossil fuel long chain hydrocarbons in industrial quantities. But coal does so it's the ideal base ingredient for making a synthetic, fossil fuel free hydrocarbon.

Hopefully, the next few years will be the essential clearout of all the deadwood and scams without doing too much damage to the true businesses of the future and deliver a far less toxic and more solid foundation for progressing on.