EVs - have the financial savings evaporated already?

[740EVTORQUES]

And for the private buyer you buy a nice 2-3 year ex lease car for a sensible price.

There's still the worry that it has been ragged every morning from cold, has only had one oil change in 30,000 miles because the manufacturers care more about perceived running costs that reliability outside the warranty period and is heading towards it's first big belts and discs service though.

Wait a minute...

[Nomme de Plum]

The OG Jester said:

I paid £11.56 for 161.9 kwh last month so essentially 2 full chargers for around 500 miles. Yes, 11quid! Last month was the last free council charges in my area but even charging from home I'm still saving cash.

I'm glad I haven't bought an EV though, the discounts I'm seeing on new is unreal as is the depreciation! My i4 was £62k list price, a 2 year example with 20k miles are now going for sub £35k. I also had a look to see what kind of discounts EV's are new. My wife's company are buying her a car, and Citroen C4 had £15k off the RRP in some places.

I'm guessing the arse has started to fall out the EV market already?

How is the i4 depreciation outwith this:

"What are the averages for car depreciation?

With so many factors contributing to the exact rate of car depreciation, there can be enormous variations within ranges of models from an individual manufacturer.

The average car depreciation will hit hardest in the first year of ownership. Generally, the drop will be around 15-35% in the first 12 months. And that will continue to rise up to 50% or more over three years.


Year 1: 15-35% depreciation. 65-85% of the original value.
Year 3: 40-60% depreciation. 40-65% of the original value.
Year 5: 60-70% depreciation. 30-40% of the original value.
Year 8-10: 80% depreciation. 20% of the original value."

From here:

https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/car-depr...

[TheDeuce]

Nomme de Plum said:

The OG Jester said:

I paid £11.56 for 161.9 kwh last month so essentially 2 full chargers for around 500 miles. Yes, 11quid! Last month was the last free council charges in my area but even charging from home I'm still saving cash.

I'm glad I haven't bought an EV though, the discounts I'm seeing on new is unreal as is the depreciation! My i4 was £62k list price, a 2 year example with 20k miles are now going for sub £35k. I also had a look to see what kind of discounts EV's are new. My wife's company are buying her a car, and Citroen C4 had £15k off the RRP in some places.

I'm guessing the arse has started to fall out the EV market already?

How is the i4 depreciation outwith this:

"What are the averages for car depreciation?

With so many factors contributing to the exact rate of car depreciation, there can be enormous variations within ranges of models from an individual manufacturer.

The average car depreciation will hit hardest in the first year of ownership. Generally, the drop will be around 15-35% in the first 12 months. And that will continue to rise up to 50% or more over three years.


Year 1: 15-35% depreciation. 65-85% of the original value.
Year 3: 40-60% depreciation. 40-65% of the original value.
Year 5: 60-70% depreciation. 30-40% of the original value.
Year 8-10: 80% depreciation. 20% of the original value."

From here:

https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/car-depr...

And then also factor in the EV's RRP in the UK is set to factor in the available subsidies... So they start artificially higher and subsequently do tend to depreciate more once the used market is trading them without the benefit of subsidies.

In terms of personal value/loss, there is nothing between EV/ICE purchase new, or second had really. Other than running costs which are waaaaaaay less for the EV.

But a lot of people can't see overall cost/value, they just see headline 'scary' figures. This is why a lot of people make endless great sounding but terrible financial decisions throughout their life, probably adding up to hundreds of thousands of pounds of wasted money!

[The OG Jester]

Suppose I've never owned or leased a car of this value before and if I had bought the car I'd be pretty ps off I'd lost so much. Its on salary sacrifice so I'm getting the benefit of a cheap(ish) lease and not having to worry about the depreciation once the lease is done.

Having looked at some other models, used EV's just seem pretty cheap compared to their ICE rivals. My wife used to own a Pug 208, bought new for £22k and sold 1 year later for £19.5k with 9k miles. We looked at the EV model which was £33k and 2nd hand prices a year later were around half that value.

I'm sure some people are getting a bargain on the 2nd hand market.

[ChrisH72]

I'm seriously considering an EV as a private buyer. My mileage isn't high so the cost savings are not huge but there would be some savings on running costs as I can charge from home.

It's not all about saving money for me. Keeping my current car would be the cheapest option by far. But if I were to buy another car the purchase price would be similar with EV or ICE (used cars). A brand new car is out of the question with prices of either being way too high for me to consider.

Ultimately I think driving will become more expensive whichever way you go. Everything does.

[Nomme de Plum]

ChrisH72 said:

I'm seriously considering an EV as a private buyer. My mileage isn't high so the cost savings are not huge but there would be some savings on running costs as I can charge from home.

It's not all about saving money for me. Keeping my current car would be the cheapest option by far. But if I were to buy another car the purchase price would be similar with EV or ICE (used cars). A brand new car is out of the question with prices of either being way too high for me to consider.

Ultimately I think driving will become more expensive whichever way you go. Everything does.

In the UK I bought as a private buyer, the car was about 2.5 years old and I've had it a year. I've tracked depreciation and is exactly the same as many of my previous ICEs.

Service costs are non existent at the moment but I can charge at home and 99% of my motoring is local. it's costing about 2.5p/mile, fuel equivalent. The acceleration at normal speeds can be really handy and the quietness is a bonus.

[Nomme de Plum]

ChrisH72 said:

I'm seriously considering an EV as a private buyer. My mileage isn't high so the cost savings are not huge but there would be some savings on running costs as I can charge from home.

It's not all about saving money for me. Keeping my current car would be the cheapest option by far. But if I were to buy another car the purchase price would be similar with EV or ICE (used cars). A brand new car is out of the question with prices of either being way too high for me to consider.

Ultimately I think driving will become more expensive whichever way you go. Everything does.

In the UK I bought as a private buyer, the car was about 2.5 years old and I've had it a year. I've tracked depreciation and is exactly the same as many of my previous ICEs.

Service costs are non existent at the moment but I can charge at home and 99% of my motoring is local. it's costing about 2.5p/mile, fuel equivalent. The acceleration at normal speeds can be really handy and the quietness is a bonus.

[page3]

The OG Jester said:

Suppose I've never owned or leased a car of this value before and if I had bought the car I'd be pretty ps off I'd lost so much.

Not really. After leasing my last two, I bought this as a private buyer. Compared to the lease deals around at the time if I sell after six years for anything over £10K it’s a win.

[Sheepshanks]

page3 said:

The OG Jester said:

Suppose I've never owned or leased a car of this value before and if I had bought the car I'd be pretty ps off I'd lost so much.

Not really. After leasing my last two, I bought this as a private buyer. Compared to the lease deals around at the time if I sell after six years for anything over £10K it’s a win.

You can compare anything, of course, but it's hardly apples for apples when he's talking about depreciation over 2yrs and you're doing it over 6.

[page3]

Sheepshanks said:

page3 said:

The OG Jester said:

Suppose I've never owned or leased a car of this value before and if I had bought the car I'd be pretty ps off I'd lost so much.

Not really. After leasing my last two, I bought this as a private buyer. Compared to the lease deals around at the time if I sell after six years for anything over £10K it’s a win.

You can compare anything, of course, but it's hardly apples for apples when he's talking about depreciation over 2yrs and you're doing it over 6.

Agree. When I went ahead the numbers told me leasing was way more expensive than buying, even at 50% depreciation over three years. I’ve never done, nor wanted a two year ownership.

[survivalist]

page3 said:

Sheepshanks said:

page3 said:

The OG Jester said:

Suppose I've never owned or leased a car of this value before and if I had bought the car I'd be pretty ps off I'd lost so much.

Not really. After leasing my last two, I bought this as a private buyer. Compared to the lease deals around at the time if I sell after six years for anything over £10K it’s a win.

You can compare anything, of course, but it's hardly apples for apples when he's talking about depreciation over 2yrs and you're doing it over 6.

Agree. When I went ahead the numbers told me leasing was way more expensive than buying, even at 50% depreciation over three years. I’ve never done, nor wanted a two year ownership.

Depends on the car and annual mileage. Given how rapidly the EV market is changing it’s feasible that a 6 year old car with 60k mileage will lose a huge percentage of its value by 2030. As an industry they are already an along way short of the ZEV mandate only 3 months in to 2024.- many manufacturers will be looming at significant discounts for the second half of this year, which will only hurt residual for all EVs

[JAMSXR]

With very little extra cash we swapped our 5 year old family car (BMW X1) for a 3 year old Model 3 with significantly less miles. In fuel alone it’s 17p VS 2p per mile, plus the Tesla is a nicer steer, more space, better tech etc…

It’s got 12 month full warranty remaining plus the 5 year battery and motor warranty. Even if it’s worth nothing in 5 years time it would have been cheaper to run VS the (ICE) BMW. Frankly it’s so pleasant and convenient to drive the cost saving is a bonus.

I still have an ICE as at the sporty end of the market EVs have got some way to go.

Edited by JAMSXR on Saturday 6th April 05:49

[ashenfie]

I drive a mini and most of the time don’t do big mileage, so £30 of petrol does me fine a month. The mini easily does the odd long journeys of 350 miles I do 3/4 times a year.

Cost wise every 2 years a service then mot, tax and insurance. 1 year old car cost 20k with 4k on the clock.

To replace in a few years time, maybe an issue being is small cars are being discontinued way before the ice ban. An ev mini is relatively useless due to range. So a bigger would be needed for no other reason that that and cost £30-40k

Once ice is banned the true cost of ev’s will be slowed rolled out as governments stop subsidies, leaving us to pay the bills.

[JustGetATesla]

ashenfie said:

I drive a mini and most of the time don’t do big mileage, so £30 of petrol does me fine a month. The mini easily does the odd long journeys of 350 miles I do 3/4 times a year.

Cost wise every 2 years a service then mot, tax and insurance. 1 year old car cost 20k with 4k on the clock.

To replace in a few years time, maybe an issue being is small cars are being discontinued way before the ice ban. An ev mini is relatively useless due to range. So a bigger would be needed for no other reason that that and cost £30-40k

Once ice is banned the true cost of ev’s will be slowed rolled out as governments stop subsidies, leaving us to pay the bills.

What "true cost of EVs". Battery costs are collapsing. Revolutionary new ways to build cars (gigacasting) which drastically reduces the number of parts - and of course an EV already drastically reduces the number of parts vs mechanical. Add in the reduced servicing costs (mine Tesla is as required - no service schedule), add in that brakes and tyres last longer (despite the FUD saying the opposite) and we're looking at costs continuing to decrease significantly.

When Henry Ford started mass producing the Model T, the revolution in manufacturing took out lots of the other manufacturers. The switch to gigacast EV construction will do the same a century later. Some of the legacy manufacturers get it and are doing a decent job (Stellantis), others are doing a terrible job, whine about competition and are in deep st (VAG).

[jasonrobertson86]

cvega said:

It still costs me £3 to travel 150 miles.

So no, i'm still saving a metric stton compared to my petrol car.

And if that's in one direction, what does it cost to charge publicly and get home?

[JustGetATesla]

jasonrobertson86 said:

And if that's in one direction, what does it cost to charge publicly and get home?

I did that comparison on a video. Charged the car at Perth Supercharger and then ran lived mpg from my previous Outlander PHEV and Volvo S90 diesels using the fuel price at the adjacent filling station.

In my case the entire 299 miles trip used public chargers. And the cost comparison was:
Tesla: 7.8p per mile
Diesel: 14.8p per mile
PHEV: 17.5p per mile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueua2Rl9-nY&t=...

If you watch The ClickMaster in his Taycan you will see that costs are insanely expensive and very slow. Doesn't help that he bought a VAG car with their terribly inefficient EV drivetrain. Or that he stops at the most expensive chargers possible. And charges very slowly to 100% which both takes ages and borks his battery. In the real world? My Tesla charged overnight at the hotel as I slept, and the top up in Perth was whilst I dived into McDonalds for lunch. To cost significantly less than in either of my previous cars.

[ashenfie]

JustGetATesla said:

ashenfie said:

I drive a mini and most of the time don’t do big mileage, so £30 of petrol does me fine a month. The mini easily does the odd long journeys of 350 miles I do 3/4 times a year.

Cost wise every 2 years a service then mot, tax and insurance. 1 year old car cost 20k with 4k on the clock.

To replace in a few years time, maybe an issue being is small cars are being discontinued way before the ice ban. An ev mini is relatively useless due to range. So a bigger would be needed for no other reason that that and cost £30-40k

Once ice is banned the true cost of ev’s will be slowed rolled out as governments stop subsidies, leaving us to pay the bills.

What "true cost of EVs". Battery costs are collapsing. Revolutionary new ways to build cars (gigacasting) which drastically reduces the number of parts - and of course an EV already drastically reduces the number of parts vs mechanical. Add in the reduced servicing costs (mine Tesla is as required - no service schedule), add in that brakes and tyres last longer (despite the FUD saying the opposite) and we're looking at costs continuing to decrease significantly.

When Henry Ford started mass producing the Model T, the revolution in manufacturing took out lots of the other manufacturers. The switch to gigacast EV construction will do the same a century later. Some of the legacy manufacturers get it and are doing a decent job (Stellantis), others are doing a terrible job, whine about competition and are in deep st (VAG).

It hard to say as every part of the supply chain is subsidised. Battery, car production, sales, fuel, tax …

Further BYD already has huge volumes and 95 percent of the non car market. Given a few years maybe most of the car
Market.

It’s also a common mistake to relate cost price to selling price. If bmw sell for £50-60 then Tesla will be close to that also regardless of cost of production. Sell cheaper only reinforces the expectation that something is worth less. Tesla have done well to build a brand, but market forces are at work and hope a steady slide does not set in.

[kambites]

ashenfie said:

It hard to say as every part of the supply chain is subsidised. Battery, car production, sales, fuel, tax …

It's worth noting that every part of the ICE supply chain is also subsidised. That's just how multinational business works these days, governments essentially bid against each other to have factories located in their territory.

We're probably not there yet, but we're not far off the point where production costs would be equal with equal economies of scale.

[OutInTheShed]

Nomme de Plum said:

How is the i4 depreciation outwith this:

"What are the averages for car depreciation?

With so many factors contributing to the exact rate of car depreciation, there can be enormous variations within ranges of models from an individual manufacturer.

The average car depreciation will hit hardest in the first year of ownership. Generally, the drop will be around 15-35% in the first 12 months. And that will continue to rise up to 50% or more over three years.


Year 1: 15-35% depreciation. 65-85% of the original value.
Year 3: 40-60% depreciation. 40-65% of the original value.
Year 5: 60-70% depreciation. 30-40% of the original value.
Year 8-10: 80% depreciation. 20% of the original value."

From here:

https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/car-depr...

That's the orthodox view, based on a century or so of IC car markets.
You could extend that curve expecting 12+ year old cars to be worth maybe 5 to !0 of new cost and later worth very little until they fail an MoT badly.

These days we are seeing some different curves I think?
There are 10+ YO cars depreciating from several £k to nil in a couple of years

There are new cars which look good value compared to used cars.

The used EV market is still small and distorted by everyone knowing about used Leaves.

[Nomme de Plum]

jasonrobertson86 said:

cvega said:

It still costs me £3 to travel 150 miles.

So no, i'm still saving a metric stton compared to my petrol car.

And if that's in one direction, what does it cost to charge publicly and get home?

Maybe that is the total journey.

We do on average 7,000 to 7400 miles per annum with an average journey less than 20 miles. So for well over 90% of the usage an owner can change at home.

If you don't have the ability to do this don't buy an EV yet but fortunately 60% of house holds can.

Remotely I can charge from 46p upward and those mega fast chargers don't work for me anyway. For some odd reason mine has actually crept up in value a bit. Still less than I paid for it a year ago but the depreciation rate is no different than my Merc estate i sold.