How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?
Discussion
Just pondering...
So often the take up of EV is discussed in linear terms - assuming that the rate of adoption will continue at a vaguely similar rate to today until at some point around 2050 pretty much all daily drivers cars are EV. But could it start to feel that 'everyone' now has an EV quite a bit sooner than that?
So far no country has banned new ICE sales, we will be amongst the first (probably) to do so. I wonder how quickly attitudes to EV will change after just a couple of years of punters only ever hearing about EV's whenever their family/friends announce a new car, or the choice of new cars they're looking at? We'll be living in a country where every single person each of us knows that happens to buy/lease/SS a new car will only ever end up with an EV - that's going to feel like a rapid state change for those that have largely simply ignored thinking about EV's up until that point.
Assuming most people get on well with their new EV (most folk actually do after a short period of adjustment), that's going to be a lot of positive feedback for those still pondering whether to buy one, even if only second hand.
It will quickly become a world where the only chatter relating to cars (for none enthusiasts at least, IE typical punters) is going to be about EV's. They might not talk about it being an EV, but whatever new cars are discussed, will all by default be EV's.
We will see this starting to swing ahead of the actual ICE ban (2030) because some years before that date it's likely that ICE (all hybrid at that point) ranges and availability in the UK will be far less than today. For example, Ford may still sell a couple of ICE models in the UK, but abyne looking for a city car or SUV might quickly find that the only Ford choices for them are all EV's, that sort of limited choice for certain model types is bound to happen across many manufacturers ranges ahead of the actual ban.
So, things may start to change sooner rather than later, including attitudes and buyer confidence/knowledge.
Or am I wrong about it all?
So often the take up of EV is discussed in linear terms - assuming that the rate of adoption will continue at a vaguely similar rate to today until at some point around 2050 pretty much all daily drivers cars are EV. But could it start to feel that 'everyone' now has an EV quite a bit sooner than that?
So far no country has banned new ICE sales, we will be amongst the first (probably) to do so. I wonder how quickly attitudes to EV will change after just a couple of years of punters only ever hearing about EV's whenever their family/friends announce a new car, or the choice of new cars they're looking at? We'll be living in a country where every single person each of us knows that happens to buy/lease/SS a new car will only ever end up with an EV - that's going to feel like a rapid state change for those that have largely simply ignored thinking about EV's up until that point.
Assuming most people get on well with their new EV (most folk actually do after a short period of adjustment), that's going to be a lot of positive feedback for those still pondering whether to buy one, even if only second hand.
It will quickly become a world where the only chatter relating to cars (for none enthusiasts at least, IE typical punters) is going to be about EV's. They might not talk about it being an EV, but whatever new cars are discussed, will all by default be EV's.
We will see this starting to swing ahead of the actual ICE ban (2030) because some years before that date it's likely that ICE (all hybrid at that point) ranges and availability in the UK will be far less than today. For example, Ford may still sell a couple of ICE models in the UK, but abyne looking for a city car or SUV might quickly find that the only Ford choices for them are all EV's, that sort of limited choice for certain model types is bound to happen across many manufacturers ranges ahead of the actual ban.
So, things may start to change sooner rather than later, including attitudes and buyer confidence/knowledge.
Or am I wrong about it all?
Johnson897210 said:
Yes everyone will set their ICE cars on fire and buy shiny new EVs as soon as they see someone on their street has one. Am I getting this right?
Talking about attitudes/interest towards EV shifting when ICE is no longer available as a new car... Burning old ICE cars is doable, but wouldn't have any effect regarding the subject of this thread.Probably best just to keep the existing ICE cars for those that aren't in the market for a new car, wouldn't you think? Seems really stupid (sorry, couldn't find a better word) to suggest burning them, for any reason.
I think it’s certainly possible that the lack of new ICE models will push people towards BEV purchases.
After all, this is why manufacturers facelift cars - people want to feel they’re getting something new and exciting and not be seen to have the ‘old model’
From a consumer perspective it’ll be the appeal combined with the monthly cost.
From a manufacturer perspective it’ll come down to profits. If ICE is vastly more profitable for them then it’s in their interest to sell only as many EVs as the ZEV mandate demands.
What I don’t see is the majority of consumers paying more for EVs, most people aren’t fussed how the car is propelled. People often don’t take running costs into consideration, so BEV often has to compete on the monthly cost alone.
After all, this is why manufacturers facelift cars - people want to feel they’re getting something new and exciting and not be seen to have the ‘old model’
From a consumer perspective it’ll be the appeal combined with the monthly cost.
From a manufacturer perspective it’ll come down to profits. If ICE is vastly more profitable for them then it’s in their interest to sell only as many EVs as the ZEV mandate demands.
What I don’t see is the majority of consumers paying more for EVs, most people aren’t fussed how the car is propelled. People often don’t take running costs into consideration, so BEV often has to compete on the monthly cost alone.
My family is pretty typical and attitudes vary.
Me - drive, employed on decent salary, attitude - likes shiny things but too tight to buy them. lease of EV no brainer as couldn't afford performance in ICE for similar price.
Old age parents - do few miles and max of 120 return trip. Perhaps one "long" journey of 300 miles return a year. Have driveway. Attitude - EV wouldn't suit our lifestyle
Sister 50 - bought new mx5 to potter around Worcester and ferry daughter. Attitude - not as cool or chic atm.
BIL - has company car. Been asking the relevant Qs of me for 4 years whilst his lease expired. Now has EV
Son 24 - old fiesta about to get replaced and has £8k to buy. Attitude - Wants EV but scared witless if an old one goes wrong out of warranty.
3 different attitudes that need to change. Some will become obsolete as the mandate forces it but until the used EV market support MUST improve dramatically.
Me - drive, employed on decent salary, attitude - likes shiny things but too tight to buy them. lease of EV no brainer as couldn't afford performance in ICE for similar price.
Old age parents - do few miles and max of 120 return trip. Perhaps one "long" journey of 300 miles return a year. Have driveway. Attitude - EV wouldn't suit our lifestyle
Sister 50 - bought new mx5 to potter around Worcester and ferry daughter. Attitude - not as cool or chic atm.
BIL - has company car. Been asking the relevant Qs of me for 4 years whilst his lease expired. Now has EV
Son 24 - old fiesta about to get replaced and has £8k to buy. Attitude - Wants EV but scared witless if an old one goes wrong out of warranty.
3 different attitudes that need to change. Some will become obsolete as the mandate forces it but until the used EV market support MUST improve dramatically.
Things are irreversibly changing and even things like all new build houses with parking being required to have a 7kW charger will start to subconsciously impact people’s attitudes I’m sure.
The amount of radio and TV advertising will surely play a role. As will the appearance of EVs in tv programmes and films. The cultural references side will start to impact people’s acceptance and it will just be increasingly seen as the norm.
I think people will be unable to bury their head in the sand and convince themselves the transition isn’t happening for much longer. Certainly way before the pure ICE ban kicks in 2030. The volumes of EVs sold this year so far for the likes of Mercedes at 38% BMW 32% and Cupra and Mini at 52% mean they’re going to be unmissable in the not too distant future.
My unscientific benchmark is how many EVs in a row in a single line of traffic… just recently I’ve got to four for the first time
The amount of radio and TV advertising will surely play a role. As will the appearance of EVs in tv programmes and films. The cultural references side will start to impact people’s acceptance and it will just be increasingly seen as the norm.
I think people will be unable to bury their head in the sand and convince themselves the transition isn’t happening for much longer. Certainly way before the pure ICE ban kicks in 2030. The volumes of EVs sold this year so far for the likes of Mercedes at 38% BMW 32% and Cupra and Mini at 52% mean they’re going to be unmissable in the not too distant future.
My unscientific benchmark is how many EVs in a row in a single line of traffic… just recently I’ve got to four for the first time
Edited by plfrench on Thursday 13th February 07:29
plfrench said:
Things are irreversibly changing and even things like all new build houses with parking being required to have a 7kW charger will start to subconsciously impact people’s attitudes I’m sure.
The amount of radio and TV advertising will surely play a role. As will the appearance of EVs in tv programmes and films. The cultural references side will start to impact people’s acceptance and it will just be increasingly seen as the norm.
I think people will be unable to bury their head in the sand and convince themselves the transition isn’t happening for much longer. Certainly way before the pure ICE ban kicks in 2030. The volumes of EVs sold this year so far for the likes of Mercedes at 38% BMW 32% and Cupra and Mini at 52% mean they’re going to be unmissable in the not too distant future.
My unscientific benchmark is how many EVs in a row in a single line of traffic… just recently I’ve got to four for the first time
The amount of EV car (and flip smartphones) placement in Korean series is quite something.The amount of radio and TV advertising will surely play a role. As will the appearance of EVs in tv programmes and films. The cultural references side will start to impact people’s acceptance and it will just be increasingly seen as the norm.
I think people will be unable to bury their head in the sand and convince themselves the transition isn’t happening for much longer. Certainly way before the pure ICE ban kicks in 2030. The volumes of EVs sold this year so far for the likes of Mercedes at 38% BMW 32% and Cupra and Mini at 52% mean they’re going to be unmissable in the not too distant future.
My unscientific benchmark is how many EVs in a row in a single line of traffic… just recently I’ve got to four for the first time
Edited by plfrench on Thursday 13th February 07:29
One had an actress powering her hair-dryer near a lake from the V2L plug of a Kia EV5.
Marvelous.
TheDrownedApe said:
3 different attitudes that need to change. Some will become obsolete as the mandate forces it but until the used EV market support MUST improve dramatically.
I think this is the big one, enthusiasts are a small percentage of drivers so the manufacturers will cater for the majority first with normal cars. There needs to be a good supply of shed grade cars to fill that market as lots of people just need to pootle around locally. 2nd hand Leafs would be ideal for most journeys but battery repair/replacement needs to be a part of the value of the car and not a multiple.dreamcracker said:
New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.
ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I think it's very likely there will be an increase in private buyers going for an EV when they can no longer buy a petrol car. Obviously they could buy a used petrol car, but we have over 3 million millionaires in this country, they like the new car on the drive and are very unlikely to change that habit just because they can't buy a petrol one anymore. Beyond millionaires we have about another 15m that are in an income bracket that easily affords a new car, and many do.ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I suspect a lot of people are holding off now as they fear uncertainty, but that uncertainty will evaporate as it becomes clear that ICE really is going and EV's really do work, and have several interesting benefits.
I'm not sure if the final wave of pre-ban ICE cars will increase in price though. I can see why from a manufacturing perspective they arguably should... But rightly or wrongly I expect that potential buyers will worry they're a poor Investment which dents their perceived value. There are so many other factors too, that I don't feel able to make a credible prediction. All I'm sure about is that the range of ICE available as new will continue to decrease, probably quite significantly over the coming years, certainly well ahead of the ban itself.
Perhaps Norway is an example of what it might look like as the deadline approaches?
Almost 90% of all new car sales last year were EV’s and it’s been over 50% for a while but it takes time to filter through, over 70% of cars on the road are still ICE
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
Almost 90% of all new car sales last year were EV’s and it’s been over 50% for a while but it takes time to filter through, over 70% of cars on the road are still ICE
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
WelshRich said:
Perhaps Norway is an example of what it might look like as the deadline approaches?
Almost 90% of all new car sales last year were EV’s and it’s been over 50% for a while but it takes time to filter through, over 70% of cars on the road are still ICE
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
Norway is as close as we get to seeing the effects of an ICE ban. They're not banned, but EV's over there are so much cheaper in every way that only a die hard ICE lover with no money worries would still buy one. So in effect, they are 'sort of' banned for most punters.Almost 90% of all new car sales last year were EV’s and it’s been over 50% for a while but it takes time to filter through, over 70% of cars on the road are still ICE
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
As you say, the share of new car sales to EV has indeed skyrocketed, as it would anywhere where ICE is banned or effectively taken out of reach. But I'm more interested in the attitude shift that has taken place in Norway. They love EV's now! The infrastructure has absolutely kept pace with adoption, it all works beautifully and it's hard to imagine that most people in Norway confronted with buying their first EV is nervous, because they must already have endless friends and family members that have one clearly get on with their car just fine.
Norway is similar to the UK in one crucial way, the potential to produce excessive amounts of renewable energy - which is best used for charging batteries, as that's a use that can be executed whenever power generation is at it's highest and the excess is available. It's not all rosy though, I think the average British chap is perhaps not quite so open minded and environmentally inclined as over in Norway... But longer term I think that even in stubborn Britain, once something is proven to work and is widely enough adopted, the masses tend to relax and accept it. There's definitely a tipping point to general acceptance and that tipping point is going to be different country by country.
I don't know the stats, but I see far more EVs now on my local roads, and am not convinced they are all company cars.
COVID has changed working patterns for many, including me, and I now only go to my main client's offices (90 miles away) about 3 to 4 times a year - we do everything else on Teams. I used to go weekly before COVID.
All my other journeys are local, so my wfe and I probably ony do 10-15,000 miles a year.
The biggest cost of motoring is depreciation, and EVs are as bad as ICEs for it.
I run a company fleet, all BEV or PHEV, and while they certainly are reliable, their values sink fast.
I personaly have avoided depreciation for the last 7 years by running sheds, cars that cost me under £1000 and are still worth that.
I have no plans to buy a new car, EV or ICE. They just aren't a status symbol for me. I will stay wiht my sheds for as long as viable
I am not a technophobe, I spend all day every day in front of a computer and couldn't manage company finances without the internet.
I think what is putting me off is the high entry cost for private users to EV ownership, and I am also put off by the risk of battery failure if I buy in the lower regions of the used market.
Please do tell me why I am misguided, or where I am going wrong.
COVID has changed working patterns for many, including me, and I now only go to my main client's offices (90 miles away) about 3 to 4 times a year - we do everything else on Teams. I used to go weekly before COVID.
All my other journeys are local, so my wfe and I probably ony do 10-15,000 miles a year.
The biggest cost of motoring is depreciation, and EVs are as bad as ICEs for it.
I run a company fleet, all BEV or PHEV, and while they certainly are reliable, their values sink fast.
I personaly have avoided depreciation for the last 7 years by running sheds, cars that cost me under £1000 and are still worth that.
I have no plans to buy a new car, EV or ICE. They just aren't a status symbol for me. I will stay wiht my sheds for as long as viable
I am not a technophobe, I spend all day every day in front of a computer and couldn't manage company finances without the internet.
I think what is putting me off is the high entry cost for private users to EV ownership, and I am also put off by the risk of battery failure if I buy in the lower regions of the used market.
Please do tell me why I am misguided, or where I am going wrong.
Lots of factors in play I guess and everything is dependant on circumstances and budget.
Everyone has a different use case for car ownership.
I was very anti EV until we took a rash decision and decided to lease one for 3 years.
Part of me is not convinced they will go ahead with the ICE ban in 2030, the next GE is what 2029 so is that enough time for the next government to reverse the ban if its not going to be Labour?
Don't get me wrong, 5 years is a long time and public charging is going to have made decent improvements by then and so will the used EV market but there is still a demographic of people who don't fit the lifestyle of having an EV.
We tow a caravan so have a diesel, I don't see that changing until we get to a point the little one is old enough that caravaning holidays don't interest him anymore. Towing with an EV is not something I would entertain until I can get 50% of 500 miles on a tow which is roughly what we get with the diesel.
Reality is that even if the ICE ban comes into force in 2030, its going to be probably 10-15 years before people need to start being concerned about the used ICE market shrinking to a point they may be forced to to BEV/EV.
Our current diesel is 9 years old and will probably do us until its say 15, that gives me until 2045 until I need to be concerned about not being able to get a suitable ICE car and by that point I am going to be approaching 60 and likely couldn't care less and will just buy a cheap EV anyway.
Everyone has a different use case for car ownership.
I was very anti EV until we took a rash decision and decided to lease one for 3 years.
Part of me is not convinced they will go ahead with the ICE ban in 2030, the next GE is what 2029 so is that enough time for the next government to reverse the ban if its not going to be Labour?
Don't get me wrong, 5 years is a long time and public charging is going to have made decent improvements by then and so will the used EV market but there is still a demographic of people who don't fit the lifestyle of having an EV.
We tow a caravan so have a diesel, I don't see that changing until we get to a point the little one is old enough that caravaning holidays don't interest him anymore. Towing with an EV is not something I would entertain until I can get 50% of 500 miles on a tow which is roughly what we get with the diesel.
Reality is that even if the ICE ban comes into force in 2030, its going to be probably 10-15 years before people need to start being concerned about the used ICE market shrinking to a point they may be forced to to BEV/EV.
Our current diesel is 9 years old and will probably do us until its say 15, that gives me until 2045 until I need to be concerned about not being able to get a suitable ICE car and by that point I am going to be approaching 60 and likely couldn't care less and will just buy a cheap EV anyway.
TheDeuce said:
dreamcracker said:
New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.
ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I think it's very likely there will be an increase in private buyers going for an EV when they can no longer buy a petrol car. Obviously they could buy a used petrol car, but we have over 3 million millionaires in this country, they like the new car on the drive and are very unlikely to change that habit just because they can't buy a petrol one anymore. Beyond millionaires we have about another 15m that are in an income bracket that easily affords a new car, and many do.ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I suspect a lot of people are holding off now as they fear uncertainty, but that uncertainty will evaporate as it becomes clear that ICE really is going and EV's really do work, and have several interesting benefits.
I'm not sure if the final wave of pre-ban ICE cars will increase in price though. I can see why from a manufacturing perspective they arguably should... But rightly or wrongly I expect that potential buyers will worry they're a poor Investment which dents their perceived value. There are so many other factors too, that I don't feel able to make a credible prediction. All I'm sure about is that the range of ICE available as new will continue to decrease, probably quite significantly over the coming years, certainly well ahead of the ban itself.
Untill that's sorted not gonna happen.
A500leroy said:
TheDeuce said:
dreamcracker said:
New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.
ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I think it's very likely there will be an increase in private buyers going for an EV when they can no longer buy a petrol car. Obviously they could buy a used petrol car, but we have over 3 million millionaires in this country, they like the new car on the drive and are very unlikely to change that habit just because they can't buy a petrol one anymore. Beyond millionaires we have about another 15m that are in an income bracket that easily affords a new car, and many do.ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
I suspect a lot of people are holding off now as they fear uncertainty, but that uncertainty will evaporate as it becomes clear that ICE really is going and EV's really do work, and have several interesting benefits.
I'm not sure if the final wave of pre-ban ICE cars will increase in price though. I can see why from a manufacturing perspective they arguably should... But rightly or wrongly I expect that potential buyers will worry they're a poor Investment which dents their perceived value. There are so many other factors too, that I don't feel able to make a credible prediction. All I'm sure about is that the range of ICE available as new will continue to decrease, probably quite significantly over the coming years, certainly well ahead of the ban itself.
Untill that's sorted not gonna happen.
Although if you look it up, only 50% of people living in flats have access to a car.
Then only 22% of households are flats. The rest are houses/bungalows.
I'd say there are a lot more people who can feasibly make the transition in the next 5-10 years before people in flats need to worry.
Public charging needs to come down a lot though as it's ridiculous.
Then only 22% of households are flats. The rest are houses/bungalows.
I'd say there are a lot more people who can feasibly make the transition in the next 5-10 years before people in flats need to worry.
Public charging needs to come down a lot though as it's ridiculous.
dreamcracker said:
New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.
ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
The very significant demand for used BEVs discredits your private buyer point. Remember they but used at a ration of well over 9:1 compared to buying new.ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.
I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.
The planned migration to BEVs is slow, over the next 20/25 years, that it will have little or no impact as old used EVs.
The sales numbers over coming year or two could well be the bellwether for BEVs as we see more cars like the new R5 and further Chinese imports hit our roads. If the trend broadly follows the existing year on year sales percentage increases then it's an absolute done deal. It's the direction of travel that matters.
We should the remember that the whole motor manufacturing car industry including supply chain was and still largely is ICE based. It is a huge switch including new young design engineers with a technological expertise in the electric drive train field.
Wagonwheel555 said:
Lots of factors in play I guess and everything is dependant on circumstances and budget.
Everyone has a different use case for car ownership.
I was very anti EV until we took a rash decision and decided to lease one for 3 years.
Part of me is not convinced they will go ahead with the ICE ban in 2030, the next GE is what 2029 so is that enough time for the next government to reverse the ban if its not going to be Labour?
Don't get me wrong, 5 years is a long time and public charging is going to have made decent improvements by then and so will the used EV market but there is still a demographic of people who don't fit the lifestyle of having an EV.
We tow a caravan so have a diesel, I don't see that changing until we get to a point the little one is old enough that caravaning holidays don't interest him anymore. Towing with an EV is not something I would entertain until I can get 50% of 500 miles on a tow which is roughly what we get with the diesel.
Reality is that even if the ICE ban comes into force in 2030, its going to be probably 10-15 years before people need to start being concerned about the used ICE market shrinking to a point they may be forced to to BEV/EV.
Our current diesel is 9 years old and will probably do us until its say 15, that gives me until 2045 until I need to be concerned about not being able to get a suitable ICE car and by that point I am going to be approaching 60 and likely couldn't care less and will just buy a cheap EV anyway.
In 2035 there will still be 18M ICEs on our roads versus 15.75M BEVs. That's assuming sales mandate numbers are achieved. Everyone has a different use case for car ownership.
I was very anti EV until we took a rash decision and decided to lease one for 3 years.
Part of me is not convinced they will go ahead with the ICE ban in 2030, the next GE is what 2029 so is that enough time for the next government to reverse the ban if its not going to be Labour?
Don't get me wrong, 5 years is a long time and public charging is going to have made decent improvements by then and so will the used EV market but there is still a demographic of people who don't fit the lifestyle of having an EV.
We tow a caravan so have a diesel, I don't see that changing until we get to a point the little one is old enough that caravaning holidays don't interest him anymore. Towing with an EV is not something I would entertain until I can get 50% of 500 miles on a tow which is roughly what we get with the diesel.
Reality is that even if the ICE ban comes into force in 2030, its going to be probably 10-15 years before people need to start being concerned about the used ICE market shrinking to a point they may be forced to to BEV/EV.
Our current diesel is 9 years old and will probably do us until its say 15, that gives me until 2045 until I need to be concerned about not being able to get a suitable ICE car and by that point I am going to be approaching 60 and likely couldn't care less and will just buy a cheap EV anyway.
So basically plenty of old ICEs to drive. What VED or fuel costs will be is anyone's guess.
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