How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?

How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?

Author
Discussion

Zigster

1,818 posts

155 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
A500leroy said:
Not a chance, all those people in high rise flats paying the equivalent of 12mpg to use a public charger?
Untill that's sorted not gonna happen.
Any chance you could show your working for 12mpg equivalent?

What price per kWh are you assuming and can you find any public chargers which are even close to that.

Some pretty basic maths shows that even using the most expensive public chargers gets you to over (equivalent of) 30mpg so how are you spending 2.5 times as much (more than £2/kWh!) on electricity as the most expensive ones out there?

And, using more reasonably priced public chargers, I estimate I would get around (the equivalent of) 55mpg if I charged my Tesla solely at Tesla Superchargers.

DMZ

1,635 posts

171 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
I’m sure car manufacturers would love to understand/predict the future buying behaviour of customers as they decide where to stick billions in R&D. It can’t be easy.

I have no idea tbh. I guess this is a market driven by carrot and stick mostly so depends on that. Unless EVs somehow become universally loved based on the product alone.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

26,695 posts

77 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
DMZ said:
I’m sure car manufacturers would love to understand/predict the future buying behaviour of customers as they decide where to stick billions in R&D. It can’t be easy.

I have no idea tbh. I guess this is a market driven by carrot and stick mostly so depends on that. Unless EVs somehow become universally loved based on the product alone.
For those that are used to EV, very often they do come to prefer EV and would not like to swap back to ICE. Certainly not for the daily car.

I can see the appeal of having a special ICE in addition to the EV, but that has nothing to do with the abilities or useability of the EV, which would always be my choice for longer trips and so on. My only interest in going back to ICE would be as a second car, for fun and as a potential investment.

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
DMZ said:
I’m sure car manufacturers would love to understand/predict the future buying behaviour of customers as they decide where to stick billions in R&D. It can’t be easy.

I have no idea tbh. I guess this is a market driven by carrot and stick mostly so depends on that. Unless EVs somehow become universally loved based on the product alone.
Cars are not universally loved. That is a myth that only exists in PH and similar sites. A car is a car is car to most people and most are buying used anyway.

Motor Manufactures are investing $billions which is why here and in Europe and elsewhere globally if you look there are mandates directing the move to BEV.


DMZ

1,635 posts

171 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
We are on PH and not on a market research company Zoom call so perhaps reasonable to expect the PH view if asking a question? We have DonkeyApple to represent the poor as well, which is helpful.

I think the only people who can give a proper view are folks in car sales who see and hear the customers. I was incidentally just test driving a V8 from one of them premium used car dealers this morning. I went past a Taycan on the test drive and asked him if he's doing much Taycan and he said no. Risky to buy in, very hard to know what they will sell at and they do need to be priced aggressively to sell. So I guess that's one view of buyer attitudes from the coal face.

kambites

68,798 posts

232 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
I suspect that if we haven't already got to the point where the huge majority of people would prefer an EV anyway, the ICE ban wont happen.

Also the 2030 date is (and always has been) irrelevant. The actual ban which effects anything is 2035.

PBCD

800 posts

149 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
kambites said:
Also the 2030 date is (and always has been) irrelevant. The actual ban which effects anything is 2035.
As things currently stand, the 2030 date is for 'pure' ICE, which is the type of car that
PH posters are understandably most upset about becoming unavailable.

Between 2030 and 2035, all new cars sold must be plug in EVs with a substantial range,
with or without an engine, so no pure ICE or so called 'self charging' hybrids.



kambites

68,798 posts

232 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
PBCD said:
kambites said:
Also the 2030 date is (and always has been) irrelevant. The actual ban which effects anything is 2035.
As things currently stand, the 2030 date is for 'pure' ICE, which is the type of car that
PH posters are understandably most upset about becoming unavailable.
Indeed, but PHers are, from a macro-automotive market point of view, irrelevant. For 99% of car buyers a plug-in hybrid does everything a "pure" ICE will do and potentially more. The major shake-up of the market comes in 2035 when you can no longer buy a new car which gets its energy directly from a readily available liquid fuel.

VeeReihenmotor6

2,440 posts

186 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
As more and more people make the leap to EV, those that tend to follow, in life, will follow.

Come 2030 there will still be an abundance of ICE vehicles on the roads, and likewise many people will still have the attitude that EVs won't work for them.

Come 2040 most of those that were kids during the 2020s will only want EV. I quick poll of the kids in my kids friendship circle all like current EVs better than their parents aging ICE vehicles. Some kids are brainwashed by their parents ("don't like EVs" they say) yet when they are passengers in my cars (EVs) without their parents they are impressed and are asking questions. Obvs small sample size but quite telling.

Come 2050 those in the older generation, who didn't want to change to EV, will have given up driving or will have now made the switch.

At somepoint hybrids will disappear. They are a compromised and complicated halfway house to accelerate the switch.

ICE vehicles will live on as enthusiast toys, much like any other classic car today, but the majority won't be using them as day to day transport.

Problems today seen with infrastructure and charging will be overcome. I also dont think some of the big historic brands will survive i.e. VAG, BMW, Merc etc are in a tough position of trying to cater for their ICE centric customer base but need to invest in EVs to compete with both China and what the future generation of people will want. Their EVs are designed to look like ICE vehicles in an attempt to make existing customer's switch however by desgin the are inefficent, obsolete and not competitive with EV brands.





Zigster

1,818 posts

155 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
DMZ said:
We are on PH and not on a market research company Zoom call so perhaps reasonable to expect the PH view if asking a question? We have DonkeyApple to represent the poor as well, which is helpful.

I think the only people who can give a proper view are folks in car sales who see and hear the customers. I was incidentally just test driving a V8 from one of them premium used car dealers this morning. I went past a Taycan on the test drive and asked him if he's doing much Taycan and he said no. Risky to buy in, very hard to know what they will sell at and they do need to be priced aggressively to sell. So I guess that's one view of buyer attitudes from the coal face.
You might as well ask a GP receptionist her views on how healthy people are based on the people she sees every day.

GetCarter

29,931 posts

290 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
Some really interesting stuff at 31:50 on this podcast... how simple charging could be .... and how difficult it is!

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/podcast

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
VeeReihenmotor6 said:
As more and more people make the leap to EV, those that tend to follow, in life, will follow.

Come 2030 there will still be an abundance of ICE vehicles on the roads, and likewise many people will still have the attitude that EVs won't work for them.

Come 2040 most of those that were kids during the 2020s will only want EV. I quick poll of the kids in my kids friendship circle all like current EVs better than their parents aging ICE vehicles. Some kids are brainwashed by their parents ("don't like EVs" they say) yet when they are passengers in my cars (EVs) without their parents they are impressed and are asking questions. Obvs small sample size but quite telling.

Come 2050 those in the older generation, who didn't want to change to EV, will have given up driving or will have now made the switch.

At somepoint hybrids will disappear. They are a compromised and complicated halfway house to accelerate the switch.

ICE vehicles will live on as enthusiast toys, much like any other classic car today, but the majority won't be using them as day to day transport.

Problems today seen with infrastructure and charging will be overcome. I also dont think some of the big historic brands will survive i.e. VAG, BMW, Merc etc are in a tough position of trying to cater for their ICE centric customer base but need to invest in EVs to compete with both China and what the future generation of people will want. Their EVs are designed to look like ICE vehicles in an attempt to make existing customer's switch however by desgin the are inefficent, obsolete and not competitive with EV brands.


Aprox numbers going forward.

2030 26M ICEs; 2035 18M ICEs; 2040 8M ICEs,

2050 those old grumps still alive will be on mobility scooters. Opps they're electric. Maybe convert to Briggs and Stratton.

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
Zigster said:
DMZ said:
We are on PH and not on a market research company Zoom call so perhaps reasonable to expect the PH view if asking a question? We have DonkeyApple to represent the poor as well, which is helpful.

I think the only people who can give a proper view are folks in car sales who see and hear the customers. I was incidentally just test driving a V8 from one of them premium used car dealers this morning. I went past a Taycan on the test drive and asked him if he's doing much Taycan and he said no. Risky to buy in, very hard to know what they will sell at and they do need to be priced aggressively to sell. So I guess that's one view of buyer attitudes from the coal face.
You might as well ask a GP receptionist her views on how healthy people are based on the people she sees every day.
Car sales guys have never been high on my trust index. Possibly marginally above those that sell double glazing built in wardrobes kitchens etc.

It is also well know that early Taycans had issues so it doesn't say anything about the market.


PinkHouse

2,095 posts

68 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Just pondering...

It will quickly become a world where the only chatter relating to cars (for none enthusiasts at least, IE typical punters) is going to be about EV's. They might not talk about it being an EV, but whatever new cars are discussed, will all by default be EV's.
Most people daydream about things like winning the lottery, travelling to exotic places, achieveing great things etc and this is what you choose to fantasize about?

Is your experience of driving your EV not enjoyable enough for you as things stand that you need external validation and affirmation from other people doing the same thing to satisfy your mind that you've made the right choice? That would explain the ban-loving attitude you see from the usual minority here

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
GetCarter said:
Some really interesting stuff at 31:50 on this podcast... how simple charging could be .... and how difficult it is!

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/podcast
As someone who had a dropped kerb extension and lamp post move done for my last house and drooped kerb extension to the house I recently moved into I can state it's an absolute doddle. The process is very straightforward. and yes there are approved contractors that do the work and sort with the Local/county council. From applying to completion about a month.

Apart from pavement channels there are overhead devices that exist now as well.

This is where we need to be for on street parking. It needs Government to legislate if necessary.

It's 2025 so plenty of time to roll this out. in 2030 there could be 7M BEVs and 2035 15M + BEVs


Edited by Nomme de Plum on Friday 14th February 15:43

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
PinkHouse said:
Most people daydream about things like winning the lottery, travelling to exotic places, achieveing great things etc and this is what you choose to fantasize about?

Is your experience of driving your EV not enjoyable enough for you as things stand that you need external validation and affirmation from other people doing the same thing to satisfy your mind that you've made the right choice? That would explain the ban-loving attitude you see from the usual minority here
You have strange Daydreams so possibly not most people.

For me it's how I mod the suspension to make the car handle better, can I tweak the electronics for a few more kW and also up the regeneration, or how do i get my boat point a bit better. but then I think engineering. I may have a few others but they're certainly not for here.

SWoll

19,729 posts

269 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
PinkHouse said:
TheDeuce said:
Just pondering...

It will quickly become a world where the only chatter relating to cars (for none enthusiasts at least, IE typical punters) is going to be about EV's. They might not talk about it being an EV, but whatever new cars are discussed, will all by default be EV's.
Most people daydream about things like winning the lottery, travelling to exotic places, achieveing great things etc and this is what you choose to fantasize about?

Is your experience of driving your EV not enjoyable enough for you as things stand that you need external validation and affirmation from other people doing the same thing to satisfy your mind that you've made the right choice? That would explain the ban-loving attitude you see from the usual minority here
Having a bad day?

PinkHouse

2,095 posts

68 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
Nomme de Plum said:
PinkHouse said:
Most people daydream about things like winning the lottery, travelling to exotic places, achieveing great things etc and this is what you choose to fantasize about?

Is your experience of driving your EV not enjoyable enough for you as things stand that you need external validation and affirmation from other people doing the same thing to satisfy your mind that you've made the right choice? That would explain the ban-loving attitude you see from the usual minority here
You have strange Daydreams so possibly not most people.

For me it's how I mod the suspension to make the car handle better, can I tweak the electronics for a few more kW and also up the regeneration, or how do i get my boat point a bit better. but then I think engineering. I may have a few others but they're certainly not for here.
Those are infinitely more interesting to discuss than if your nephew's ex girlfriend's half brother spoke to his mate about an EV the other day

Nomme de Plum

7,050 posts

27 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
PinkHouse said:
Those are infinitely more interesting to discuss than if your nephew's ex girlfriend's half brother spoke to his mate about an EV the other day
It was my GF that insisted we swopped the 911 for a Taycan.

PinkHouse

2,095 posts

68 months

Friday 14th February
quotequote all
Nomme de Plum said:
PinkHouse said:
Those are infinitely more interesting to discuss than if your nephew's ex girlfriend's half brother spoke to his mate about an EV the other day
It was my GF that insisted we swopped the 911 for a Taycan.
Well I must be lucky because my girlfriend can afford her own sports cars