How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?

[otolith]

TheDeuce said:

otolith said:

This is a country where the inclusion of registration year on the number plate drives a significant proportion of the population to change cars when they don't need to.

The tipping point will happen when British snobbery decides that ICE = lower class person.

I've honestly never met anyone who has changed their car because the reg number makes it obvious it's few years old. I've met loads of people that want a new car every few years for the sake of always having a new car, in warranty... But they would do that even if the number plate didn't reveal the cars age.

I've never met anyone who admits to it, but strangely there are two massive monthly peaks in car registrations per year when the plate changes

I think the fact that everyone can see how old your car is by the plate is a significant driver of car sales in the UK. An observation supported by this behaviour - lots of people don't like everyone knowing they own an old car:

TheDeuce said:

I actually think it's a thing that works the other way around, it's more likely that someone saving £££ by buying a cheaper used car will then put a p-plate on it to disguise it's age!

TheDeuce said:

But whatever the mechanics of the numberplate factor, I think you're probably right. Once a certain % of the cars on the road are electric, many of those looking to buy a new/nearly new car will start to feel they might look a bit old hat (or plain poor ) if they get anything other than an electric car themselves. I don't wish to be sexist but I think women are more likely to feel urge to follow the apparent trend than men actually, based solely on my female friends desire to have certain types of car in the past as trends have shifted. I suspect it's down to them not actually caring enough to deep dive into what sort of car is 'best', so quicker and simpler to just follow the same path as they see others seem to be doing.

They ALL drive an SUV now, regardless of having kids or not - that's a trend they all got swept up by years ago!!

Probably something in that.

[QBee]

The entrance to Morrisons' car park in my town is bang opposite a primary school.

Around 9'ish every school morning the road clogs up with primary school mums sitting on the school entrance zig zags and double yellow lines in their brand new Range Rovers, waiting for the time to drop off little Tabitha or Amelia to their lessons.
They are of course entitled to park there, showing off their status.
They completely ignore anyone trying to get into the car park opposite.

A few with lesser cars park in the Morrisons car park.
Brownie point for good behaviour.
When they have dropped off their flock they leave their parking spaces in their BMWs and Audis and drive the shortest route to the car park exit, ignoring the one way system completely.
Brownie point deducted.

I cannot honestly say I have seen any EV drivers behaving like this.
They are not noticed, so their status is not enhanced.

[Tycho]

Ankh87 said:

As I said the best way is to actually make it cheaper and incentivize everyone, not just the select few. Make public charging cheaper, make personal chargers cheaper, make cars cheaper. Also make them simple to use rather than a load of apps and/or subscriptions when using a public charger. They should be as easy as pay at pump is, so put your card into the machine and add electricity. Bank is then debited accordingly, no need to you to put in all the info for an app.

Personally I think that public charging should be VAT free to encourage uptake for those who can't charge at home. The Supercharger network has the whole infrastructure design done brilliantly, you just plug in and charge. When you've finished then you just push the button on the charger handle to release and by the time I've got back in the car I've got an email receipt on my phone. The other networks just want to sell your data and it is easy to do by forcing you to use an app. The government should have taken a long term view and said that if anyone wants to set up a network then it needs to do the following:

Report price, current utilisation and if any bays are broken. Also integrate apps to allow them to report if you are navigating to them so it can help route others. Tesla does this and you can see how many cars are en-route and it is great as it will divert you if it is full and it estimates that other cars won't have finished charging by the time you get to it.

IMO, this is the way it should be done but at least you should be able to pay by card at all the newer sites.

[QBee]

Tycho said:

Ankh87 said:

As I said the best way is to actually make it cheaper and incentivize everyone, not just the select few. Make public charging cheaper, make personal chargers cheaper, make cars cheaper. Also make them simple to use rather than a load of apps and/or subscriptions when using a public charger. They should be as easy as pay at pump is, so put your card into the machine and add electricity. Bank is then debited accordingly, no need to you to put in all the info for an app.

Personally I think that public charging should be VAT free to encourage uptake for those who can't charge at home. The Supercharger network has the whole infrastructure design done brilliantly, you just plug in and charge. When you've finished then you just push the button on the charger handle to release and by the time I've got back in the car I've got an email receipt on my phone. The other networks just want to sell your data and it is easy to do by forcing you to use an app. The government should have taken a long term view and said that if anyone wants to set up a network then it needs to do the following:

Report price, current utilisation and if any bays are broken. Also integrate apps to allow them to report if you are navigating to them so it can help route others. Tesla does this and you can see how many cars are en-route and it is great as it will divert you if it is full and it estimates that other cars won't have finished charging by the time you get to it.

IMO, this is the way it should be done but at least you should be able to pay by card at all the newer sites.

Spot on.

[SWoll]

TheDeuce said:

I've honestly never met anyone who has changed their car because the reg number makes it obvious it's few years old. I've met loads of people that want a new car every few years for the sake of always having a new car, in warranty... But they would do that even if the number plate didn't reveal the cars age.

I actually think it's a thing that works the other way around, it's more likely that someone saving £££ by buying a cheaper used car will then put a p-plate on it to disguise it's age!

But whatever the mechanics of the numberplate factor, I think you're probably right. Once a certain % of the cars on the road are electric, many of those looking to buy a new/nearly new car will start to feel they might look a bit old hat (or plain poor ) if they get anything other than an electric car themselves. I don't wish to be sexist but I think women are more likely to feel urge to follow the apparent trend than men actually, based solely on my female friends desire to have certain types of car in the past as trends have shifted. I suspect it's down to them not actually caring enough to deep dive into what sort of car is 'best', so quicker and simpler to just follow the same path as they see others seem to be doing.

They ALL drive an SUV now, regardless of having kids or not - that's a trend they all got swept up by years ago!!

Women love big SUV's as they are tall and often physically intimidating, which is something in most cases they themselves are not.

My wife is a perfect example as loves big cars and SUV's (she's 5.4" and 8 stone). On the other hand I'm 6.4" and 16 stone and am still gutted that I can't comfortably fit in an Exige.

[ZesPak]

good theory, my wife doesn't really want an SUV but she's 6' herself so that checks out.
She just fits in the passenger seat of an ND MX5. The car is basically a single seater

[richhead]

I think alot of people are like my brother, he recently bought a new car, second hand but only a few years old, he was telling me about it, its a AMG, he said, goes like fk, but when i asked him what size engine it had he didnt know.
I dont think people care what powers their car, just what works for them.
same way i dont care about my fridge.
Electric cars are ok if you can charge it at home, more of a problem if you cant, those that it works for mostly already have one.
Take me for instance, i would never have one as where i live i couldnt charge it.
If i had somewhere to charge at home i probably would. The government banning them wont change that, i will just have to have an older car that i can fill up at a petrol station, no government legislation can change that.

[otolith]

richhead said:

Electric cars are ok if you can charge it at home, more of a problem if you cant, those that it works for mostly already have one.

That market is nowhere near saturated yet, hence the high used demand for them. I could have one, just haven't got round to car change time yet (and the option of a Model 3 Performance I was considering looks less attractive now that Musk has made Tesla the butt of a joke, and credible rivals haven't been around long enough to be in the 20k-25k band I'm thinking of).

[ZesPak]

richhead said:

The government banning them wont change that, i will just have to have an older car that i can fill up at a petrol station, no government legislation can change that.

What an odd thing to say?

Also, maybe not for anyone over 50 anymore, but at one point it'll just be a lot more of a hassle to fill up a car than public charge an EV.
Ask anyone running LPG. Ten years ago, we had 2 stations in a 10km radius. They're both gone now...

With the cost and legislation involved, will anyone still bother opening up a petrol station? At one point putting major investments to keep them running might just not be on the cards.

[TheDeuce]

richhead said:

I think alot of people are like my brother, he recently bought a new car, second hand but only a few years old, he was telling me about it, its a AMG, he said, goes like fk, but when i asked him what size engine it had he didnt know.
I dont think people care what powers their car, just what works for them.
same way i dont care about my fridge.
Electric cars are ok if you can charge it at home, more of a problem if you cant, those that it works for mostly already have one.
Take me for instance, i would never have one as where i live i couldnt charge it.
If i had somewhere to charge at home i probably would. The government banning them wont change that, i will just have to have an older car that i can fill up at a petrol station, no government legislation can change that.

Definitely not the case that 'all those that can charge at home already have one', not even close!


As for your car future, give it ten years and you'll very likely be able to charge 'at home' in some form and for reasonable cost. It might not be literally on your doorstep, but extremely close. Of course there will be no suggestion of it happening in most areas until a hell of a lot more people have EV's to begin with.

[richhead]

TheDeuce said:

richhead said:

I think alot of people are like my brother, he recently bought a new car, second hand but only a few years old, he was telling me about it, its a AMG, he said, goes like fk, but when i asked him what size engine it had he didnt know.
I dont think people care what powers their car, just what works for them.
same way i dont care about my fridge.
Electric cars are ok if you can charge it at home, more of a problem if you cant, those that it works for mostly already have one.
Take me for instance, i would never have one as where i live i couldnt charge it.
If i had somewhere to charge at home i probably would. The government banning them wont change that, i will just have to have an older car that i can fill up at a petrol station, no government legislation can change that.

Definitely not the case that 'all those that can charge at home already have one', not even close!


As for your car future, give it ten years and you'll very likely be able to charge 'at home' in some form and for reasonable cost. It might not be literally on your doorstep, but extremely close. Of course there will be no suggestion of it happening in most areas until a hell of a lot more people have EV's to begin with.

I said for those that having an ev works for them have one, that doesnt just mean those that can charge at home, i have friends with them, and most have them through work, dont forget they cost considerably more than ice cars to buy new.
Most of my friends are just keeping their ice cars for longer and seeing what the future holds.

[ZesPak]

richhead said:

dont forget they cost considerably more than ice cars to buy new.

Do they though?

VW ID3, 170hp, starts at 30k
VG Golf, 150hp, starts at 28k

BMW i4 GC, 280hp , starts at 51k
BMW 4 GC, 180hp, starts at 46k

Dacia Spring, 65hp, starts at 16k
Dacia Sandero, 90hp, starts at 14k

Seems like a lot of this would be offset by equipment and running costs? How are they still considerably more? Am I missing something?

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

richhead said:

dont forget they cost considerably more than ice cars to buy new.

Do they though?

VW ID3, 170hp, starts at 30k
VG Golf, 150hp, starts at 28k

BMW i4 GC, 280hp , starts at 51k
BMW 4 GC, 180hp, starts at 46k

Dacia Spring, 65hp, starts at 16k
Dacia Sandero, 90hp, starts at 14k

Seems like a lot of this would be offset by equipment and running costs? How are they still considerably more? Am I missing something?

Indeed. I actually had an 4 series GC ahead of my current i4 GC. The i4 has over 300hp more, double the torque, and costs at least £2000 less a year to 'fuel'. So... it's cheaper Or at least, the same price near as damn it, I'm not going to bother comparing insurance and servicing costs etc. Let's be honest, I'd need to compare to the M4 if I was going to choose the closest model and the running cost difference if I did that would be catastrophic.

[Puzzles]

They'll fall out of favour imo. Most people don't care for cars, and with the war on motorists who can blame them.

[ZesPak]

Puzzles said:

They'll fall out of favour imo. Most people don't care for cars, and with the war on motorists who can blame them.

weird victim card.
About 3x as many people die in the UK from traffic accidents as they do from being murdered.
That is without counting indirect deaths from things like local air pollution.

Considering the numbers, it's a miracle the car as we know it has had such a long run.

[Puzzles]

Not really, there were no compelling alternatives.

[ZesPak]

Puzzles said:

Not really, there were no compelling alternatives.

Again, odd statement. Life went on perfectly until ~80 years ago. My grandfather was the first in the village that got a car, and that was in the 50's.
True, a car is very convenient and has been instrumental in the industrialization and building our western society, but that can also be said about wars, slavery, colonization, so hardly a compelling argument for keeping something.

Mixing 2 tonne vehicles that basically everyone has access to and pedestrians has been proven to be a terrible idea that could have been done better.
I've seen the next generation, as you say, they usually have no interest in cars. My much younger BiL is actually a real enthusiast though, he's got a fun weekend car but travels everywhere using an e-bike or public transport.

My point is that it's hardly a "blind hatred of cars" bur more a "holy fk, look at these numbers, why do we still allow this?" case imho.

[Pica-Pica]

ZesPak said:

Puzzles said:

Not really, there were no compelling alternatives.

Again, odd statement. Life went on perfectly until ~80 years ago. My grandfather was the first in the village that got a car, and that was in the 50's.
True, a car is very convenient and has been instrumental in the industrialization and building our western society, but that can also be said about wars, slavery, colonization, so hardly a compelling argument for keeping something.

Mixing 2 tonne vehicles that basically everyone has access to and pedestrians has been proven to be a terrible idea that could have been done better.
I've seen the next generation, as you say, they usually have no interest in cars. My much younger BiL is actually a real enthusiast though, he's got a fun weekend car but travels everywhere using an e-bike or public transport.

My point is that it's hardly a "blind hatred of cars" bur more a "holy fk, look at these numbers, why do we still allow this?" case imho.

Also, the whole ‘drive to the supermarket’ thing may change back to more goods being driven to the high street, re-opening of local shops, ‘proper’ separate shops - greengrocers, butchers, and so on.
I have one son who drives around the country for his own business, and another in a Japanese city and has no driving licence (but the public transport is top notch, on time and clean; plus you can’t have a car in the city unless you have off-street parking, and his wife hires a car if needed)

[survivalist]

Pica-Pica said:

ZesPak said:

Puzzles said:

Not really, there were no compelling alternatives.

Again, odd statement. Life went on perfectly until ~80 years ago. My grandfather was the first in the village that got a car, and that was in the 50's.
True, a car is very convenient and has been instrumental in the industrialization and building our western society, but that can also be said about wars, slavery, colonization, so hardly a compelling argument for keeping something.

Mixing 2 tonne vehicles that basically everyone has access to and pedestrians has been proven to be a terrible idea that could have been done better.
I've seen the next generation, as you say, they usually have no interest in cars. My much younger BiL is actually a real enthusiast though, he's got a fun weekend car but travels everywhere using an e-bike or public transport.

My point is that it's hardly a "blind hatred of cars" bur more a "holy fk, look at these numbers, why do we still allow this?" case imho.

Also, the whole ‘drive to the supermarket’ thing may change back to more goods being driven to the high street, re-opening of local shops, ‘proper’ separate shops - greengrocers, butchers, and so on.
I have one son who drives around the country for his own business, and another in a Japanese city and has no driving licence (but the public transport is top notch, on time and clean; plus you can’t have a car in the city unless you have off-street parking, and his wife hires a car if needed)

People like convenience, which is why supermarkets replaced so many individual shops in town centres (butchers, bakers, greengrocers etc. Then online shopping and delivery replaced a lot of other shops. I can’t see any reason why that will change - if anything it’ll be accelerated by things like AI assistants doing your shopping / meal planning for you.

In the UK at least, very few cities have decent public transport systems. It’s certainly possible that things like self driving cars will enable a reduction in cars owned by individuals.

[Tindersticks]

It’s a long long way off.