Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
I’m looking at Convertible M4’s for the summer and the prices are somewhat reasonable, comp pack AUC cars hovering between 33-36 which is what I paid for a comp pack last year BUT
I’m really afraid of buying such a car, not because of the prices crashing, but the fuel prices. What if the price keeps going up and it ends up at £2 a liter, that will be £116 a week to fill the M4 up on regular unleaded and if I want to sell it, who on earth is going to buy a thirsty BMW!
Do I go for 435d? How long until euro 6 gets banned
I’m really afraid of buying such a car, not because of the prices crashing, but the fuel prices. What if the price keeps going up and it ends up at £2 a liter, that will be £116 a week to fill the M4 up on regular unleaded and if I want to sell it, who on earth is going to buy a thirsty BMW!
Do I go for 435d? How long until euro 6 gets banned
av185 said:
bbob said:
Surely the limited availability of new cars will affect used car supply for a good few years so prices could remain high for some time. My simple view ignoring all the other factors!
Yep very much like it did last year.Used prices will remain high for a considerable time yet simply because of restricted new cars coming to the market thus throttling used car supplies even more.
The effect on prices is quite clear.
I have 5 cars in my watch list on ebay at the moment and all have been relisted several times and reduced, still none of them have sold.
I personally think that energy prices are going to hit everyone's pockets come April and again in October. This is going to lead to less disposable income which means the amount of people in the market for certain cars surely has to go down.
Al U said:
av185 said:
bbob said:
Surely the limited availability of new cars will affect used car supply for a good few years so prices could remain high for some time. My simple view ignoring all the other factors!
Yep very much like it did last year.Used prices will remain high for a considerable time yet simply because of restricted new cars coming to the market thus throttling used car supplies even more.
The effect on prices is quite clear.
I have 5 cars in my watch list on ebay at the moment and all have been relisted several times and reduced.
Fact is used values ££ are up to 55% dearer than 12 months back across all sectors and trade guides currently show no sign of prices dropping across most sectors understandably with the exception of large older gas guzzlers with high veds.
The closing of car factories and worsening supply chains exacerbated by the Ukraine situation throttling new car supply means the supply of used stock is dropping even from the current low levels.
Car dealers are sitting on stock and in many cases raising prices because they know they will have to pay more to replace it in the light of the current situation.
av185 said:
Perhaps but that is relatively meaningless without going into details about the particular cars.
Fact is used values ££ are up to 55% dearer than 12 months back across all sectors and trade guides currently show no sign of prices dropping across most sectors understandably with the exception of large older gas guzzlers with high veds.
The closing of car factories and worsening supply chains exacerbated by the Ukraine situation throttling new car supply means the supply of used stock is dropping even from the current low levels.
Car dealers are sitting on stock and in many cases raising prices because they know they will have to pay more to replace it in the light of the current situation.
Don't disagree with anything you have said, if dealer's are happy to sit on stock good for them. Depends on their model I guess, whether they work at low profit/high volume etc. But if things aren't selling then prices typically go one way...Fact is used values ££ are up to 55% dearer than 12 months back across all sectors and trade guides currently show no sign of prices dropping across most sectors understandably with the exception of large older gas guzzlers with high veds.
The closing of car factories and worsening supply chains exacerbated by the Ukraine situation throttling new car supply means the supply of used stock is dropping even from the current low levels.
Car dealers are sitting on stock and in many cases raising prices because they know they will have to pay more to replace it in the light of the current situation.
av185 said:
Perhaps but that is relatively meaningless without going into details about the particular cars.
Fact is used values ££ are up to 55% dearer than 12 months back across all sectors and trade guides currently show no sign of prices dropping across most sectors understandably with the exception of large older gas guzzlers with high veds.
The closing of car factories and worsening supply chains exacerbated by the Ukraine situation throttling new car supply means the supply of used stock is dropping even from the current low levels.
Car dealers are sitting on stock and in many cases raising prices because they know they will have to pay more to replace it in the light of the current situation.
Sanctions on Russia plus lower demand from Ukraine are going to be larger factors than a few Ukrainian parts suppliers shutting down. The Russian economy and currency are tanking already.Fact is used values ££ are up to 55% dearer than 12 months back across all sectors and trade guides currently show no sign of prices dropping across most sectors understandably with the exception of large older gas guzzlers with high veds.
The closing of car factories and worsening supply chains exacerbated by the Ukraine situation throttling new car supply means the supply of used stock is dropping even from the current low levels.
Car dealers are sitting on stock and in many cases raising prices because they know they will have to pay more to replace it in the light of the current situation.
Cascade360 said:
I'm hoping that I'll be able to get a big engined V8 something or other for pennies in the near future, they have been extremely expensive recently!
I wonder if that will really happen, as these are usually second or even third fun/ weekend cars which do a low mileage so the presently mad fuel costs will be less of a drawback in this market.Also, inflated used prices matter less of you are trading in. (A bit like houses)Edited by Lester H on Wednesday 9th March 12:26
We just bought a new car for £9k (cheapest in the country of the particular spec) put the reg into Motorway and they came back with a value of £8,400
Now considering the dealer put on a fresh MOT ticket, service, replaced the wipers, gave us a full tank of petrol and paid £280 for a fresh diamond cut wheel refurb, it would appear he's not making much money at all! Must have bought it off the previous owner very cheap.
Now considering the dealer put on a fresh MOT ticket, service, replaced the wipers, gave us a full tank of petrol and paid £280 for a fresh diamond cut wheel refurb, it would appear he's not making much money at all! Must have bought it off the previous owner very cheap.
Chestrockwell said:
I’m looking at Convertible M4’s for the summer and the prices are somewhat reasonable, comp pack AUC cars hovering between 33-36 which is what I paid for a comp pack last year BUT
I’m really afraid of buying such a car, not because of the prices crashing, but the fuel prices. What if the price keeps going up and it ends up at £2 a liter, that will be £116 a week to fill the M4 up on regular unleaded and if I want to sell it, who on earth is going to buy a thirsty BMW!
Do I go for 435d? How long until euro 6 gets banned
The M4 isn't a thirsty BMW, however the X5 4.8iS and the E92 M3 certainly were though! I’m really afraid of buying such a car, not because of the prices crashing, but the fuel prices. What if the price keeps going up and it ends up at £2 a liter, that will be £116 a week to fill the M4 up on regular unleaded and if I want to sell it, who on earth is going to buy a thirsty BMW!
Do I go for 435d? How long until euro 6 gets banned
All jokes aside, my missus only said to me yesterday that she was wondering if it would get a bit too expensive to run the M4 fuel wise going forward.
We do have a 3.0 V6 diesel car as well, but I wouldn't exactly call that massively frugal. I remember having a 1.6d Audi A3 as a loan car a few years ago and that did over 60mpg...I wouldn't mind one of those right now to be honest!
av185 said:
WBAC isn't the market.
Just means they aren't buying a particular car because e.g. they may be fully stocked.
Similarly I could bid £5k for a £150k car. Doesn't mean thats its value.
Put my current F57 throught those valuationJust means they aren't buying a particular car because e.g. they may be fully stocked.
Similarly I could bid £5k for a £150k car. Doesn't mean thats its value.
Edited by av185 on Monday 7th March 21:53
WBAC drop 1k compare to Jan
Cazoo drop about 2k
Motorway drop as little as 20 pound
Lowest was Dec last year, gone up in Jan/Feb, and drop again now
Ultimately what trade are paying for cars doesn't paint the full picture - whether that's WBAC, Czaoo, Motorway or dealers through BCA.
Those figures tell us nothing about whether the cars they are buying are selling, and for how much.
Dealers need to buy cars or they've nothing to sell, just because they are in a bidding war at BCA for a car doesn't mean Joe Public will hand over what they want back for it.
Those figures tell us nothing about whether the cars they are buying are selling, and for how much.
Dealers need to buy cars or they've nothing to sell, just because they are in a bidding war at BCA for a car doesn't mean Joe Public will hand over what they want back for it.
Monthly outgoings will really start to bite in next few months. My energy company today sent me details of new payments needed from April after tariff increase. Dual fuel will be £350 pm I was paying £160 pm 12 months ago. And it will go up again in October by maybe another 40% ! And people think secondhand car prices won’t fall. I can see a lot of people trying to get into more economical vehicles over the summer
cc3 said:
Monthly outgoings will really start to bite in next few months. My energy company today sent me details of new payments needed from April after tariff increase. Dual fuel will be £350 pm I was paying £160 pm 12 months ago. And it will go up again in October by maybe another 40% ! And people think secondhand car prices won’t fall. I can see a lot of people trying to get into more economical vehicles over the summer
This is my thinking too, I think people that are maybe over stretching a bit will look to sell their cars and get something with either a lower monthly payment and/or a lower fuel cost. Maybe more vehicles on the market pushes the supply and demand swing a bit.I am somewhat biased though as I am in the market for a car but just don't really want to pay the prices people are asking at the moment until I am convinced it's the new normal.
My lad has just come into a reasonably tidy sum on this 18th B'day from a CTF we set up when he was a nipper. Looking to spend a decent portion of it on a car upgrade and have advised him to hang fire for now as even in the £5-10k bracket I get the feeling he could take a bath on values over the next 6-12 months at current prices.
A lot of money being asked for very average cars at the minute, if he holds off I'm hoping he'll be able to buy and insure the same car for the current asking price in a few months.
A lot of money being asked for very average cars at the minute, if he holds off I'm hoping he'll be able to buy and insure the same car for the current asking price in a few months.
The majority of private cars are bought on finance.
If budgets come under pressure (which they will/are), how many people will be able to afford to step out of the finance agreement and crystallise the potentially greater cost of negative equity ?
This is rock and hard place territory. Whilst there is pressure for the government to subsidise high fuel costs in the short term .... how long term might high fuel prices become ... and if a long time who pays ? The problem is simply deferred.
It will be hard to make big fuel savings on transport for all the reasons stated ... but heating ? At home we have halved our consumption of heating oil this year (we have no gas) saving 1500 litres of 28 second kerosene. That's effectively halved the cost of petrol in my day to day driving.
The electric aeroplane will be a long time flying. We can save what we can where we can. It's not rocket science so where is the need for hand-wringing?
The solution is to not need the energy shortage that is holding energy prices to ransom ...
If budgets come under pressure (which they will/are), how many people will be able to afford to step out of the finance agreement and crystallise the potentially greater cost of negative equity ?
This is rock and hard place territory. Whilst there is pressure for the government to subsidise high fuel costs in the short term .... how long term might high fuel prices become ... and if a long time who pays ? The problem is simply deferred.
It will be hard to make big fuel savings on transport for all the reasons stated ... but heating ? At home we have halved our consumption of heating oil this year (we have no gas) saving 1500 litres of 28 second kerosene. That's effectively halved the cost of petrol in my day to day driving.
The electric aeroplane will be a long time flying. We can save what we can where we can. It's not rocket science so where is the need for hand-wringing?
The solution is to not need the energy shortage that is holding energy prices to ransom ...
Edited by ChrisW. on Thursday 10th March 22:12
cc3 said:
I am somewhat biased though as I am in the market for a car but just don't really want to pay the prices people are asking at the moment until I am convinced it's the new normal.
Exactly this. If stock at dealers hangs around too long they will drop in price, Ive seen a couple that I’m keeping my eye on drop a few hundred in the last week on AT. I’m not convinced due to the current circumstances (inflation, fuel, gas etc) that the normal number of people are going to commit to large monthlies or capital/savings to new mainstream ICE cars or used ones particularly if the used ones aren’t the latest EuroX emissions compatible. Enthusiast cars will probably be the least impacted as they won’t be used for the same purpose but diesels and things with high VED are likely to take a bit of a tumble. Better to wait a few weeks to see how the market reacts. Predictably it’s all going this way :
Smaller engines - better turbos - more gears, these cars will hold value.
Big engines but relatively low power and efficiency - prices will nose dive - which is great if you’ve always wanted a big v8 as a fun car and you are only going to do 20 miles a weekend !
Smaller engines - better turbos - more gears, these cars will hold value.
Big engines but relatively low power and efficiency - prices will nose dive - which is great if you’ve always wanted a big v8 as a fun car and you are only going to do 20 miles a weekend !
cc3 said:
Been looking at a few cars online Porsche BMW etc. shocked when I put the reg into Webuyanycar. £80k retail and some trade prices now £50k! Bottom dropping out of high end petrol hungry market?
That’s not what I am seeing. Checked my 10 yr old 991 a couple of weeks ago and just checked again after seeing your post. Same price on both requests and £3k more than in January. Price is about £10k-£12k less than an OPC would ask so I would say a reasonable offer and holding steady.cc3 said:
I am somewhat biased though as I am in the market for a car but just don't really want to pay the prices people are asking at the moment until I am convinced it's the new normal.
Exactly this. If stock at dealers hangs around too long they will drop in price, Ive seen a couple that I’m keeping my eye on drop a few hundred in the last week on AT. I’m not convinced due to the current circumstances (inflation, fuel, gas etc) that the normal number of people are going to commit to large monthlies or capital/savings to new mainstream ICE cars or used ones particularly if the used ones aren’t the latest EuroX emissions compatible. Enthusiast cars will probably be the least impacted as they won’t be used for the same purpose but diesels and things with high VED are likely to take a bit of a tumble. Better to wait a few weeks to see how the market reacts. Gassing Station | Car Buying | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff