Secondhand car price crash?

Secondhand car price crash?

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Theraveda

400 posts

28 months

Saturday 12th March 2022
quotequote all
Lack of supply is forcing prices up at the same time as the fuel crisis is forcing prices back down again.

ETA; Jaguar XFRs definitely falling in price. Good. I want (another) one.

Edited by Theraveda on Saturday 12th March 12:39

Theoldguard

827 posts

58 months

Saturday 12th March 2022
quotequote all
All you need to know

https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/inews-lif...

Third of us living beyond our means even before Covid hit, now we are heading Into a period of high inflation, higher interest rates and unique global events, used cars and house prices at all time highs, wages not keeping up with cost of living and businesses already having to recover from 2 years of pandemic, and those who did work from home may now be asked to return to offices, meaning even less disposable income going forward with rising fuel costs and rail travel.

And we have not yet seen the worst of it, energy prices up over 50% from April and could be similar from October, an average household paying £1200 a year less than a year ago could be close to £4k from October. Those, fuel and council tax costs cannot easily be reduced, but PCP and other financial payments can, so many will unlikely have much choice as to where savings need to be made.

It going to be a buyers market within 12 months, shortage or no shortage the situation has been amplified and many using it to take some nice profits, no buyers no market, a price is only as good as someone is prepared to pay.





Edited by Theoldguard on Saturday 12th March 20:24


Edited by Theoldguard on Saturday 12th March 20:25

Audimercorbm

108 posts

50 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
If energy prices do go up another 50% in October my bill would have gone from 120 pm to 400pm.
280pm is what we pay for the wife's car!
She will be getting a shed when that lease runs out I 18 momths

SWoll

18,330 posts

258 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Audimercorbm said:
If energy prices do go up another 50% in October my bill would have gone from 120 pm to 400pm.
280pm is what we pay for the wife's car!
She will be getting a shed when that lease runs out I 18 momths
Not sure how that math works TBH, you're suggesting you'll be paying more than 3x what you are today?


ChrisH72

2,152 posts

52 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Won't increased living costs just lead to more demand for cheap 2nd hand cars?

Like the poster above, as leases expire people will turn to buying sheds outright so their value will increase.

We run two cars. Mine is mostly for fun and does little mileage but it would be hard to manage without it right now. If I changed it I would go for something similar value just for the sake of changing as I certainly don't need to. My wife's car was cheap to buy and run and I imagine we will run it into the ground then look for something similar.

As for high performance, expensive ICE cars I'd guess they will be bought for pleasure by those who can easily afford it. Judging by many recent threads here there are still plenty of people who can.

NortonES2

293 posts

48 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Theraveda said:

ETA; Jaguar XFRs definitely falling in price. Good. I want (another) one.

Edited by Theraveda on Saturday 12th March 12:39
Not by much I paid 28K for my 64 plate with 18K miles 3 years ago

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202202182...

Fusion777

2,225 posts

48 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
Won't increased living costs just lead to more demand for cheap 2nd hand cars?

Like the poster above, as leases expire people will turn to buying sheds outright so their value will increase.
A lot of people won't have the equity to go out and buy one. They can borrow of course, but they might not even be able to manage this. There will be less disposable income for most earners, so at least one thing will have to give.

av185

18,498 posts

127 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Theoldguard said:
All you need to know

https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/inews-lif...

Third of us living beyond our means even before Covid hit, now we are heading Into a period of high inflation, higher interest rates and unique global events, used cars and house prices at all time highs, wages not keeping up with cost of living and businesses already having to recover from 2 years of pandemic, and those who did work from home may now be asked to return to offices, meaning even less disposable income going forward with rising fuel costs and rail travel.

And we have not yet seen the worst of it, energy prices up over 50% from April and could be similar from October, an average household paying £1200 a year less than a year ago could be close to £4k from October. Those, fuel and council tax costs cannot easily be reduced, but PCP and other financial payments can, so many will unlikely have much choice as to where savings need to be made.

It going to be a buyers market within 12 months, shortage or no shortage the situation has been amplified and many using it to take some nice profits, no buyers no market, a price is only as good as someone is prepared to pay.
No buyers?

No chance.

With increasing lead times severely impacting new car production car factory closures huge restrictions on supply of new cars and used even with a degree of reduced demand due to the economic headwinds there is very little likelihood of any price falls apart from the older pre euro 6 stuff and larger engined lumpy high ved ageing stuff.

Robust prices will clearly be maintained broadly across most price categories due to the ongoing supply issues and this will continue for some considerable time yet.

Audimercorbm

108 posts

50 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
SWoll said:
Audimercorbm said:
If energy prices do go up another 50% in October my bill would have gone from 120 pm to 400pm.
280pm is what we pay for the wife's car!
She will be getting a shed when that lease runs out I 18 momths
Not sure how that math works TBH, you're suggesting you'll be paying more than 3x what you are today?

120 was before my fix ran out last year

ChrisH72

2,152 posts

52 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Fusion777 said:
ChrisH72 said:
Won't increased living costs just lead to more demand for cheap 2nd hand cars?

Like the poster above, as leases expire people will turn to buying sheds outright so their value will increase.
A lot of people won't have the equity to go out and buy one. They can borrow of course, but they might not even be able to manage this. There will be less disposable income for most earners, so at least one thing will have to give.
Yes it will possibly force some off the road altogether. But for many, having no car at all isn't an option if you need one for work.

I use my car for work 3 days a week. It's only 80 miles total but that's much too far to walk or cycle and we have no viable public transport here. The 3 days make me around £450 a week so unless the car costs more than that I'll still need one. An EV would be fine but it won't happen yet because they cost way too much and also do nothing for me. I'm sure there are lots in a similar situation who will just have to suck up increased living costs and get on with it.

anonymous-user

54 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
My prediction is that prices will crash shortly after I buy my next car.
I bought a 14 mpg V8 4 weeks ago b4 the war.

WBAC price has adjusted £15k down in that time.
Am I worried NO not at all, its a temporary blip and some garages are currently profiteering

av185

18,498 posts

127 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Curledge said:
ChrisH72 said:
My prediction is that prices will crash shortly after I buy my next car.
I bought a 14 mpg V8 4 weeks ago b4 the war.

WBAC price has adjusted £15k down in that time.
Am I worried NO not at all, its a temporary blip and some garages are currently profiteering
Yep and WBAC are not the market. This was just proved on the other used car thread when WBAC bids dropped but Cazoo offers increased substantially.

Fusion777

2,225 posts

48 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Interesting that WBAC offers are taken as evidence when prices are rising, but not when they're falling.

Mammasaid

3,818 posts

97 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
Yes it will possibly force some off the road altogether. But for many, having no car at all isn't an option if you need one for work.

I use my car for work 3 days a week. It's only 80 miles total but that's much too far to walk or cycle and we have no viable public transport here. The 3 days make me around £450 a week so unless the car costs more than that I'll still need one. An EV would be fine but it won't happen yet because they cost way too much and also do nothing for me. I'm sure there are lots in a similar situation who will just have to suck up increased living costs and get on with it.
80 miles a week for 3 return journeys, is 13 miles each way, perfectly do-able on a bike, even more so on an E-bike.

ChrisH72

2,152 posts

52 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Mammasaid said:
80 miles a week for 3 return journeys, is 13 miles each way, perfectly do-able on a bike, even more so on an E-bike.
It's not 3 return journeys. Requires travelling between places with very little time. Also 8am start on 2 of those days. I'm nearly 50 and no way am I cycling that in the winter!

Mammasaid

3,818 posts

97 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
Mammasaid said:
80 miles a week for 3 return journeys, is 13 miles each way, perfectly do-able on a bike, even more so on an E-bike.
It's not 3 return journeys. Requires travelling between places with very little time. Also 8am start on 2 of those days. I'm nearly 50 and no way am I cycling that in the winter!
I'm turning 53 this week, and I've done it over winter. All you need is the right clothing!.

However, if you're time limited, I can sympathise.

ChrisH72

2,152 posts

52 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Personally I'm not expecting to need to but the first point of call would simply be to buy a cheaper, more economical car. £3k for a 10 year old Aygo with zero tax and 65mpg or something similar. I expect many will do that.

Jimido

218 posts

206 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Yep and WBAC are not the market. This was just proved on the other used car thread when WBAC bids dropped but Cazoo offers increased substantially.
WBAC perhaps not the be all and end all when it comes to prices. But they have to be one of the better data points out there. And while you’d need to consider their pricing in the context of the wider Constellation group, I’d be amazed if WBAC is not a better bellweather than Cazoo. WBAC has more real time clearing price data (through BCA) than anyone else in the country - they know what cars are selling for, not what people are asking.

av185

18,498 posts

127 months

Sunday 13th March 2022
quotequote all
Jimido said:
av185 said:
Yep and WBAC are not the market. This was just proved on the other used car thread when WBAC bids dropped but Cazoo offers increased substantially.
WBAC perhaps not the be all and end all when it comes to prices. But they have to be one of the better data points out there. And while you’d need to consider their pricing in the context of the wider Constellation group, I’d be amazed if WBAC is not a better bellweather than Cazoo. WBAC has more real time clearing price data (through BCA) than anyone else in the country - they know what cars are selling for, not what people are asking.
WBAC are fully stocked for trade cars atm.

Hence lower bids than their competitors.

As I said they are not representative of the market.

Check the other used car thread where a long running reported BMW 140i was recently valued at £18k ish by WBAC whereas a couple of the other internet buyers valued it at £23k+.

Equivalent to me bidding £100 for a £120k car. Clearly doesn't mean that is an accurate valuation.

Theoldguard

827 posts

58 months

Monday 14th March 2022
quotequote all
The problem you have with a forum like PH is that like minded people have an interest in cars (often fast expensive ones), that is not representative of the general population who view cars differently.

Many will chose nice holidays, nights out, clothes etc over a nice car. There are some that can do it all, but many more who have to either make savings somewhere or borrow / hammer the CC.

We are entering a period of genuine squeeze on incomes, some are more exposed than others but everyone gets hit with rising energy costs, those who have little buffer in the monthly budget will get hit hard, those who looking to spend on a shiny new car may just hold off and see how things play out.

I agree that lower priced used cars will likely see increased sales as people try and reduce their monthly outgoings and offload their expensive PCP or other financial products, and there will of course always be buyers, but outside of a forum like this the reality is people are going to tighten their spending, and for lots that will be reviewing their outgoings, do we need 2 cars, should be get something cheaper, more economical. Sell now while prices are high.

I just see more used stock being freed up at a time where new car production is going to get better (maybe not next month or 6 months but it will improve) and demand is likely to drop off, I. E. Those due to renew their PCPs, leases etc.

The big difference now is that many used cars are 40-50% more than they were only 12mths ago, when your watching your spending or concerned where things may be heading even with your job in 12 months then I have no doubt dealers are going to find it hard to shift alot of their stock until prices ease back.

Edited by Theoldguard on Monday 14th March 10:14


Edited by Theoldguard on Monday 14th March 10:17

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