EVs... no one wants them! (Vol. 2)
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
DT1975 said:
I really don't get their agenda (actively looking for people regretting buying EV's) but it's emanating through to many other forums I use.
They are fed what to think and say. It's how PR, propaganda and lobbying works. Edited by DT1975 on Saturday 30th November 10:30
There is a significant section of any society which is susceptible to having 'information' downloaded into them where the purpose is for them to then broadcast this 'information' without thinking about it.
It's why you see on PH the anti EV stuff come in clear waves. These people are fed a single 'issue' which they then broadcast for that entity.
Take the whole 'cobalt & African child exploitation'. That whole thing appeared md then disappeared. The people who had the message downloaded into them don't actually care about the African children so they stop broadcasting that message when the next one is fed into them, for example 'tyre dust'. They won't question any particle science but simple spend the next couple of weeks broadcasting a message for others. You then get 'China bad' but the source of that one is pretty easy to establish as European car makers have such a vested interest in maintaining excessively high prices and forcing their consumers to pay them.
PH is amazing because you literally see it in action. The drone army gets its fresh download of what one one else wants them to say and within moments they are out on social media saying it. It even drives a raft of new accounts. They're all saying the same thing at the same time and will all stop when they get their next download.
tter a lot. Same picture, roughly the same text.......Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
The whole 'I must have 1000 miles' is a spurious argument borne from a fear that in 10-20 years when considering a switch to EV there won't be any third party charging infrastructure. The whole argument will just keep weakening each year and then evaporate. Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
You can already see that 200-300 is settling in as the figure and the more quickly and easily we can recharge the more people will want smaller ranges not larger ranges because of the obvious cost savings. Especially if that big battery can't be plugged into the home to act as an arbitrage between market prices.
schedoni said:
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
You can get batteries replaced and/ or repaired if they fail outside of warranty (which remember is 7-8 years on most cars, remind me how long the engine warranty is on your petrol or diesel?)Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
My car can (and does) recharge 10-80 % (ie 70% of it's range) in 18 minutes (I've done it loads of times). In 5 minutes therefore it can add 48 miles, pretty close to your requirement. There are other cars in the range which will add 62 miles in the same time.
Do you have any other requirements as both of these seem met by current cars?
Ah but how much currently is that battery repair? I expect it's more than the value of the car in most cases?
Out of interest is your car one of the 70k plus EVs or more reasonably priced for the man on the street?
schedoni said:
A500leroy said:
schedoni said:
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
You can get batteries replaced and/ or repaired if they fail outside of warranty (which remember is 7-8 years on most cars, remind me how long the engine warranty is on your petrol or diesel?)Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
My car can (and does) recharge 10-80 % (ie 70% of it's range) in 18 minutes (I've done it loads of times). In 5 minutes therefore it can add 48 miles, pretty close to your requirement. There are other cars in the range which will add 62 miles in the same time.
Do you have any other requirements as both of these seem met by current cars?
Ah but how much currently is that battery repair? I expect it's more than the value of the car in most cases?
Out of interest is your car one of the 70k plus EVs or more reasonably priced for the man on the street?
Therein lies the problem.
Average Joe has a salary of 25k a year, so won't be buying a 60k car until it's out of warranty.
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
Yeah. I hear you. Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
I think a lot of ICE drivers must be terrified at switching because they would not have to fork out for stuff like oil changes, cambelts, spark plugs and other kind of servicing and repairs that are eliminated from the running costs of an EV.
I would argue that the tipping point (when the entire country lusts after an EV) is when you can replace 105% of your range in under 1 minute. Then it will be a no brainer.
raspy said:
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
Yeah. I hear you. Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
I think a lot of ICE drivers must be terrified at switching because they would not have to fork out for stuff like oil changes, cambelts, spark plugs and other kind of servicing and repairs that are eliminated from the running costs of an EV.
I would argue that the tipping point (when the entire country lusts after an EV) is when you can replace 105% of your range in under 1 minute. Then it will be a no brainer.
raspy said:
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
Yeah. I hear you. Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
I think a lot of ICE drivers must be terrified at switching because they would not have to fork out for stuff like oil changes, cambelts, spark plugs and other kind of servicing and repairs that are eliminated from the running costs of an EV.
I would argue that the tipping point (when the entire country lusts after an EV) is when you can replace 105% of your range in under 1 minute. Then it will be a no brainer.
raspy said:
A500leroy said:
Even the EV crowd must agree that although it's unlikely the battery will fail,,the cost and ease of getting it repaired if it does happen needs to become much more affordable before people jump.
Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
Yeah. I hear you. Also they need to get to a state where a quarter of the range can be replaced within 5 minutes.
Personally I'd much sooner have a 50 mile range that can be replaced in 5 minutes, than a 500 mile range that takes a few hours.
I think a lot of ICE drivers must be terrified at switching because they would not have to fork out for stuff like oil changes, cambelts, spark plugs and other kind of servicing and repairs that are eliminated from the running costs of an EV.
I would argue that the tipping point (when the entire country lusts after an EV) is when you can replace 105% of your range in under 1 minute. Then it will be a no brainer.
A500leroy said:
Hmm £300 for a cambelt and oil change Vs £8000 for a new battery, which do you think your typical factory worker earning £400 a week would rather do?
Except a full battery replacement will rarely be required, more likely a duff cell will be replaced. It's already happening, example below for a Leaf.
A500leroy said:
Hmm £300 for a cambelt and oil change Vs £8000 for a new battery, which do you think your typical factory worker earning £400 a week would rather do?
If the engine pops in their ICE does “your typical factory worker” put a brand new engine in?Of course they don’t, they fit a used engine or change cars. Nothing will change there.
charltjr said:
A500leroy said:
Hmm £300 for a cambelt and oil change Vs £8000 for a new battery, which do you think your typical factory worker earning £400 a week would rather do?
If the engine pops in their ICE does “your typical factory worker” put a brand new engine in?Of course they don’t, they fit a used engine or change cars. Nothing will change there.
There's no denying, IF a battery based car goes wrong it does currently cost more to fix than a current normal car, and that's why average guys like me are nervous of them.
The battery refurbishment market will never expand much because we are already only a few years away from battery chemistry and management systems ensuring the battery remains sufficiently viable for the lifespan of the vehicle.
By the time the battery reaches the point where it would benefit from refurbishment the car itself will be at the point where recycling it is the wiser economic option.
All that will actually happen is that an EV that once was capable of 300 miles but at 10-15 years old has a reduced range will simply be priced to meet the level willing to be paid by those who have no need of a car exceeding that range.
If we consider the Taycan as a good example, as the range of those early ones goes into decline then people who absolutely need 200 miles one shot range will not want to buy them but people who want a Taycan but don't need more than 100 miles will.
It's not really all that plausible to think that people buying old EVs will be paying out to get a new battery. The norm will be that the car heads off to be recycled.
The question for the recycling industry is whether refurbishment will play any kind of significant role? Will there be profit in retrimming, repainting and replacing the battery of a 15-20 year old EV to give it another 15 years of use?
It would make sense to refurb these cars if they aren't rusted but so long as so many people jus want a new car every week and to pay away their income on endless front loaded depreciation instead of their pension then it seems unlikely.
People just want brand new. Ergo, why so many are panicking about 2035. It's not anything to do with not being able to drive about but that this is a looming date when many professional shoppers are going to have to face the reality of the real world which is that they never really could afford all those endless shiny new cars every few years.
By the time the battery reaches the point where it would benefit from refurbishment the car itself will be at the point where recycling it is the wiser economic option.
All that will actually happen is that an EV that once was capable of 300 miles but at 10-15 years old has a reduced range will simply be priced to meet the level willing to be paid by those who have no need of a car exceeding that range.
If we consider the Taycan as a good example, as the range of those early ones goes into decline then people who absolutely need 200 miles one shot range will not want to buy them but people who want a Taycan but don't need more than 100 miles will.
It's not really all that plausible to think that people buying old EVs will be paying out to get a new battery. The norm will be that the car heads off to be recycled.
The question for the recycling industry is whether refurbishment will play any kind of significant role? Will there be profit in retrimming, repainting and replacing the battery of a 15-20 year old EV to give it another 15 years of use?
It would make sense to refurb these cars if they aren't rusted but so long as so many people jus want a new car every week and to pay away their income on endless front loaded depreciation instead of their pension then it seems unlikely.
People just want brand new. Ergo, why so many are panicking about 2035. It's not anything to do with not being able to drive about but that this is a looming date when many professional shoppers are going to have to face the reality of the real world which is that they never really could afford all those endless shiny new cars every few years.
DonkeyApple said:
The battery refurbishment market will never expand much because we are already only a few years away from battery chemistry and management systems ensuring the battery remains sufficiently viable for the lifespan of the vehicle.
By the time the battery reaches the point where it would benefit from refurbishment the car itself will be at the point where recycling it is the wiser economic option.
All that will actually happen is that an EV that once was capable of 300 miles but at 10-15 years old has a reduced range will simply be priced to meet the level willing to be paid by those who have no need of a car exceeding that range.
If we consider the Taycan as a good example, as the range of those early ones goes into decline then people who absolutely need 200 miles one shot range will not want to buy them but people who want a Taycan but don't need more than 100 miles will.
It's not really all that plausible to think that people buying old EVs will be paying out to get a new battery. The norm will be that the car heads off to be recycled.
The question for the recycling industry is whether refurbishment will play any kind of significant role? Will there be profit in retrimming, repainting and replacing the battery of a 15-20 year old EV to give it another 15 years of use?
It would make sense to refurb these cars if they aren't rusted but so long as so many people jus want a new car every week and to pay away their income on endless front loaded depreciation instead of their pension then it seems unlikely.
People just want brand new. Ergo, why so many are panicking about 2035. It's not anything to do with not being able to drive about but that this is a looming date when many professional shoppers are going to have to face the reality of the real world which is that they never really could afford all those endless shiny new cars every few years.
Ok that's a sensible answer.By the time the battery reaches the point where it would benefit from refurbishment the car itself will be at the point where recycling it is the wiser economic option.
All that will actually happen is that an EV that once was capable of 300 miles but at 10-15 years old has a reduced range will simply be priced to meet the level willing to be paid by those who have no need of a car exceeding that range.
If we consider the Taycan as a good example, as the range of those early ones goes into decline then people who absolutely need 200 miles one shot range will not want to buy them but people who want a Taycan but don't need more than 100 miles will.
It's not really all that plausible to think that people buying old EVs will be paying out to get a new battery. The norm will be that the car heads off to be recycled.
The question for the recycling industry is whether refurbishment will play any kind of significant role? Will there be profit in retrimming, repainting and replacing the battery of a 15-20 year old EV to give it another 15 years of use?
It would make sense to refurb these cars if they aren't rusted but so long as so many people jus want a new car every week and to pay away their income on endless front loaded depreciation instead of their pension then it seems unlikely.
People just want brand new. Ergo, why so many are panicking about 2035. It's not anything to do with not being able to drive about but that this is a looming date when many professional shoppers are going to have to face the reality of the real world which is that they never really could afford all those endless shiny new cars every few years.
I'm typically a 7 year old car buyer at around the 6 k mark , expecting it to give maybe 5 to 7 years of service before big bills.
I can also live with 60-100 miles of range, so maybe it's just a waiting game for me until more suitable things are the market at my price point?
A500leroy said:
Ok that's a sensible answer.
I'm typically a 7 year old car buyer at around the 6 k mark , expecting it to give maybe 5 to 7 years of service before big bills.
I can also live with 60-100 miles of range, so maybe it's just a waiting game for me until more suitable things are the market at my price point?
You're in luck! We're already there. Putting your requirements into AT, gives over 100 EVs, and if it were my money, this would be where it goes;I'm typically a 7 year old car buyer at around the 6 k mark , expecting it to give maybe 5 to 7 years of service before big bills.
I can also live with 60-100 miles of range, so maybe it's just a waiting game for me until more suitable things are the market at my price point?
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202411076...
A500leroy said:
Hmm £300 for a cambelt and oil change Vs £8000 for a new battery, which do you think your typical factory worker earning £400 a week would rather do?
A new battery is equivalent to a new engine not a minor service if we're talking about most expensive element of the drivetrain. How much is a new engine? Particularly on a car with 400 or 500hp, might as well make it like for like.
ChocolateFrog said:
A500leroy said:
Ah,
Therein lies the problem.
Average Joe has a salary of 25k a year, so won't be buying a 60k car until it's out of warranty.
Where? Ulaan Bataar Therein lies the problem.
Average Joe has a salary of 25k a year, so won't be buying a 60k car until it's out of warranty.
Average full time salary in the UK is more like £45k.
I don't know anyone in my area including my manager who takes more than 35k.
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