Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)

[skwdenyer]

Burwood said:

VW debt is a non event. It's the financial services arm. They could sell it off if they wanted to but it makes money. Same with Ford and GM. Stories like this are written by people that don't have a clue about accounting. BMW has 100b

It is it not only a non-event so long as values of used ICE cars stay up? All those deals built around projected future values.

[Burwood]

skwdenyer said:

Burwood said:

VW debt is a non event. It's the financial services arm. They could sell it off if they wanted to but it makes money. Same with Ford and GM. Stories like this are written by people that don't have a clue about accounting. BMW has 100b

It is it not only a non-event so long as values of used ICE cars stay up? All those deals built around projected future values.

I'm sure they did quite nicely over the last 24 months. Things may get a bit more tricky around the late 20's. Then again I think used ICE values will stay strong when the ban comes in. It rather depends on what the Government does in regards VED and of course fuel prices. It would be a mistake but not out of the question for ICE cars to be treated like Tobacco. Super-tax it (2k VED?). However that would be a political hot potato.

At the end of the day the residual value sets the payment and if it's low they won't sell cars. If VW wanted to they could collateralise the lot and sell it to any number of banks. Anyone who thinks VW will fail to sell more EVs than Tesla in 24-36 months is deluded. I do think Tesla cars are superior, presently and maybe they always will. VW doesn't have to make the best. It's all about utility. It is after all 'the peoples car'. I have two and owned VAG cars for 15 years. Never had any issues with them. Had mercs, some good, some bad, bmws, some great, some terrible.

Edited by Burwood on Thursday 25th November 18:38

[RobDickinson]

ZesPak said:

Why 20k USD though for ceramic brakes? Porsche do them for less than half that on the Taycan (Turbo only).
Sounds to me like you could source those third party much cheaper?

The Porsche option is a factory fit upgrade where you dont buy the original brakes first, this is a post purchase 1st party kit and fitting.

UP do a CC kit for plaid also but its just the fronts and its near $10k, not compared like for like but guessing similar.


Do wonder if Tesla will offer this as an option when ordering the plaid in that case it should be a lot less.

[jason61c]

it should be buried down in the Tesla section.

[hyphen]

skwdenyer said:

Burwood said:

VW debt is a non event. It's the financial services arm. They could sell it off if they wanted to but it makes money. Same with Ford and GM. Stories like this are written by people that don't have a clue about accounting. BMW has 100b

It is it not only a non-event so long as values of used ICE cars stay up? All those deals built around projected future values.

They lease cars for 2-5 years, so a very short term forecast on car prices and low risk I imagine?

[hyphen]

Low tax and business friendly Texas out competing EU incentives?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-26...

Bloomberg said:

Tesla Inc. will forgo 1.14 billion euros ($1.3 billion) of state aid for the factory it’s building in Germany because it has decided to try to produce a new type of battery cell at scale in Texas first, a person familiar with the matter said.

The U.S. automaker has been working on so-called 4680 battery cells at a site near its car plant in Fremont, California. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said last year that after the company proved it could make them on a pilot assembly line there, it would manufacture them at scale at the factory it’s been constructing outside Berlin.

This made Tesla eligible to receive public funds from Germany as part of the European Union’s Important Project of Common European Interest initiative, which backs first industrial deployments of battery projects in member states. Now that Tesla has shifted gears and is further along producing 4680 cells at its factory under construction in Austin, Texas, it is no longer eligible for the money, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing private information.

Tesla informed German authorities it won’t tap the support package, Beate Baron, a spokesperson for the country’s Economy Ministry, said earlier Friday. She didn’t discuss the reason for the decision.

[RobDickinson]

$1.3bn is the profit from about 60,000 model Y sales, they'd have to delay starting Austin until the Berlin 4680 plant is up and running, which will be mid 2022 or later at best.

not a difficult choice

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

... until the Berlin 4680 plant is up and running, which will be mid 2022 or later at best.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-28/tesla-to-start-production-in-germany-in-december-automobilwoche

[RobDickinson]

Yes, but not with locally made 4680s. Do keep up.

[hyphen]

Elon claims that Space X is in trouble https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor...

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 1st December 07:32

[Burwood]

It seems more like a rally the troops pep talk. The technology required and problems are clearly highly complex. I have to say I thought it was fake when I saw those rockets land themselves. If it's possible I have no doubt he will accomplish it in time. As an aside I think FSD is even more complex

[skwdenyer]

Burwood said:

It seems more like a rally the troops pep talk. The technology required and problems are clearly highly complex. I have to say I thought it was fake when I saw those rockets land themselves. If it's possible I have no doubt he will accomplish it in time. As an aside I think FSD is even more complex

Elon is making another order-of-magnitude growth bet with Starlink. This is what he does - "we do these things because they are hard" etc.

He's not saying the company will be bankrupt next week; he's saying that there's a point at which you run out of money before you realise the benefits.

As ever, like Tesla, if he pulls it off then it will be a very big win.

[hyphen]

Tesla have begun deliveries of there Cyber product.

No, not the Truck, Telsa instead are diversifying into the business of EV kids toys

https://www.engadget.com/tesla-cyberquad-atv-for-k...

[Dave Hedgehog]

hyphen said:

Tesla have begun deliveries of there Cyber product.

No, not the Truck, Telsa instead are diversifying into the business of EV kids toys

https://www.engadget.com/tesla-cyberquad-atv-for-k...

why not LTT makes a fortune from merch

[RobDickinson]

They've always sold merch, the surfboard goes for about $20k on ebay now...

[off_again]

Would love to point fingers at Tesla for selling whistles and childs electric ATV's, but just take a look at the tat that you can get from BMW, Porsche and Ferrari.... and thats before we get to the random stuff from other brands.

[coetzeeh]

Great month for BEV car sales in the UK selling nearly 4 x the volume as Diesel cars - BEV market share 18+% YTD.

Tesla sold 3k cars out of 22k BEV's. A further ~5k sales required to exceed the Q3 sales volume.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-d...

[TheRainMaker]

coetzeeh said:

BEV market share 18+% YTD.

FYI, YTD BEV sales are 10.6% not 18+%

[coetzeeh]

TheRainMaker said:

coetzeeh said:

BEV market share 18+% YTD.

FYI, YTD BEV sales are 10.6% not 18+%

Apols, you are right, 18% is the Nov figure - my bad.

[coetzeeh]

Production at Berlin plant now highly unlikely in 2021 given environmental push back.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-hearin...