Another 7 years of Mercedes dominance ?

Another 7 years of Mercedes dominance ?

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Bo_apex

Original Poster:

1,140 posts

176 months

Friday 16th October
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Muzzer79

3,775 posts

145 months

Friday 16th October
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It won't.

I've said this on another thread, but it stands true.

F1 is cyclical - it always has been.

Drivers, managers, mechanics, designers, technicians, aero people - they all move on through being poached, retiring or wanting a new challenge.

Other teams find new, better talent.

Mercedes could also go the wrong way:

1998 Williams won no races compared to 8 in 1997.

And in December 2013; would you have put money on Sebastian Vettel, having one the last 9 races straight that year, scoring no wins and only 4 podiums in 2014?

Every period of dominance has to end. This one is no different - we are closer to the end of it than the beginning.

Kraken

1,534 posts

158 months

Friday 16th October
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Williams lost their engine for the 1998 season. 2014 saw the introduction of the hybrid engines which cost Red Bull dearly compared to Mercedes.

Neither of those are going to happen to Mercedes so I don't see any reason why they aren't going to dominate for years to come still. They've built a structure that prevents them from suffering the way Williams and McLaren did when all the Newey influence had left.

kambites

60,073 posts

179 months

Friday 16th October
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I think Mercedes are probably the most likely team to win the 2022 championships (at least assuming Hamilton and Wolff hang around) but I think I'd give them no more than a 50/50 chance of it. Probably less.

HustleRussell

18,466 posts

118 months

Friday 16th October
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I can't see what will disrupt Mercedes, they seem to have aced it in every area. If you worked there in any capacity, why would you leave?

Mercedes' budget is right up there and since they have absolutely walked the championship in recent years, they have had tons of spare bandwidth to dedicate to the 2022 car. They recently announced that they had stopped developing the 2020 car ages ago. Those engineers aren't twiddling their thumbs.

Their recent cars suggest that the competence of their aerodynamic department is no longer second to Red Bull IMO, and hasn't been for some time. Looking at recent seasons, on what basis would you predict Red Bull will do a better job?

Power unit regulation stability means they will still be starting with the best all-round power unit despite Andy Cowell's departure

The 2022 regulations are a full reset in pretty much all areas so this brings an element of risk.

I'd say the probability is 2022 Mercedes championship. You'd have to back them to carry it on.

rdjohn

4,391 posts

153 months

Saturday 17th October
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I think the assumption here is that Mercedes will somehow drop-the-ball. Despite needing to shed a lot of jobs, I don’t think that they will.

There are only 3 potential challengers (works engines) and one of those will be hobbled by losing their engine supplier. Unless Renault can provide Alonso with a winning package he is more capable of being a disruptive force, rather than an asset, so that leave just Ferrari.

They should be capable of taking the fight to Mercedes, but I don’t think LEC & SAI are yet capable of regularly beating HAM & BOT.

I would give Mercedes way better odds than 50/50, more like 80/20 to win in 2022.

Hopefully the change in regs will help to make the races look more challenging for them.

IforB

8,486 posts

187 months

Saturday 17th October
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In every era, when Mercedes have been involved as a works effort they have dominated.

Pre-war. Post-war and now.

I see nothing to suggest their current dominance won't continue and the changes in the rules, gives them the opportunity to enhance that dominance further.

At this point. The only thing I see destabilising them, is themselves,for example if key personnel leave, but given their competence I suspect succession planning has long been in place.

As a team, Merc is incredibly impressive. They have all the right ingredients and a know what to do with them. Other teams are also impressive, but just not quite at the same level. That won't change any time soon. Especially as Red Bull keep shooting themselves in the feet over engine supply.

WantSagaris

25 posts

5 months

Saturday 17th October
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I think Hamilton will leave at the end of next year.

Something has to change otherwise F1 will start losing viewers and it doesn't look like Mercedes are going anywhere.

TheDeuce

7,268 posts

24 months

Saturday 17th October
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Nothing lasts forever... But Mercedes can probably justify being in the sport for so long as they're winning, or at least in contention for titles. As others have said for some time now, it's obvious that the team is structured and operated in such a way as to be simply 'better' (more efficient, free thinking, motivated) than the rest. So long as that remains the case they probably will continue to make a better fist of regulation and formula changes than the others.

I can't see Lewis and Merc failing to take both titles again next year. hat would mean Mercedes have won 8 straight WCC's... At that point there will surely be talk of whether or not they can achieve a nice round ten. That's be a hell of a record for anyone else to try and beat!

Schermerhorn

3,835 posts

147 months

Saturday 17th October
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Maybe Ferrari will finally get it right in 2022?

Haha

TheDeuce

7,268 posts

24 months

Saturday 17th October
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Schermerhorn said:
Maybe Ferrari will finally get it right in 2022?

Haha
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.

Then again 2022 is a huge shake-up so it's possible top teams could screw it up year one and also possible a struggling team could strike gold. It's not likely but it's possible...

kambites

60,073 posts

179 months

Saturday 17th October
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.
No, I think Ferrari needs a major change of corporate attitude if it's going to be a serious competitor.

TheDeuce

7,268 posts

24 months

Saturday 17th October
quotequote all
kambites said:
TheDeuce said:
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.
No, I think Ferrari needs a major change of corporate attitude if it's going to be a serious competitor.
Mostly the attitude is looking a bit dated. Mercedes 'new age' way of extracting the most from each and every team member, the zero blame 'a mistake is an opportunity' culture has proven insanely effective.

Although there is a bit of a culture of shouting and pointing at someone else when things go wrong in Italy. I shouldn't generalise I know, but it's a fact that every time I have worked with Italian crews I have seen exactly that happen when anything goes wrong! So it's either a trend or just a coincidence from my perspective...

Schermerhorn

3,835 posts

147 months

Sunday 18th October
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TheDeuce said:
kambites said:
TheDeuce said:
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.
No, I think Ferrari needs a major change of corporate attitude if it's going to be a serious competitor.
Mostly the attitude is looking a bit dated. Mercedes 'new age' way of extracting the most from each and every team member, the zero blame 'a mistake is an opportunity' culture has proven insanely effective.

Although there is a bit of a culture of shouting and pointing at someone else when things go wrong in Italy. I shouldn't generalise I know, but it's a fact that every time I have worked with Italian crews I have seen exactly that happen when anything goes wrong! So it's either a trend or just a coincidence from my perspective...
Yes, the "boiler room" culture is not for this world anymore. Ferrari's problem is that they are run by old men who are out of touch with everything.

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat

8,403 posts

53 months

Sunday 18th October
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HustleRussell said:
If you worked there in any capacity, why would you leave?
A new challenge. Sometimes the fun is in getting to winning.

LukeBrown66

242 posts

4 months

Sunday 18th October
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I think you will find behind the numbers F1 has already lost massive amounts of audience, lots of people I know who used to watch no longer even take a slight bit of interest.

Dominance is NEVER good, EVER, it breeds contempt, disinterest and boredom in fans, media and even competitors, imagine trying to sell F1 right now to sponsors, same team wins just about every week, it's not good.

There will always be diehards, and because a Brit is winning some will always follow that as it is easy and simple for them to do so. TV and F1 know this and will fleece them for every penny sadly hence SKY tv deal etc, as they lose viewers elsewhere.

The best thing that can happen is f1 and petrol/hybrid becoming less relevant and manufacturers realising this.

Muzzer79

3,775 posts

145 months

Sunday 18th October
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
I can't see what will disrupt Mercedes, they seem to have aced it in every area. If you worked there in any capacity, why would you leave?
Take your pick from

A new challenge
More money
Better conditions
The chance to win with another team
A promotion
Boredom

Same reasons as any other job really

Remember, this is a job at the end of the day. 99% of the people there aren’t in it to leave a legacy or set records, they’re there to pay the mortgage.

TheDeuce

7,268 posts

24 months

Sunday 18th October
quotequote all
LukeBrown66 said:
I think you will find behind the numbers F1 has already lost massive amounts of audience, lots of people I know who used to watch no longer even take a slight bit of interest.

Dominance is NEVER good, EVER, it breeds contempt, disinterest and boredom in fans, media and even competitors, imagine trying to sell F1 right now to sponsors, same team wins just about every week, it's not good.

There will always be diehards, and because a Brit is winning some will always follow that as it is easy and simple for them to do so. TV and F1 know this and will fleece them for every penny sadly hence SKY tv deal etc, as they lose viewers elsewhere.

The best thing that can happen is f1 and petrol/hybrid becoming less relevant and manufacturers realising this.
F1 has lost a massive audience in the UK, that is all. Globally it's in rude health. In overall terms as a business, the UK in terms of viewership is not really a concern. Sky bought up the rights and bunged the whole thing behind a payroll... That is literally 'their business' of course, there was money at stake even when it used to be 'free' in the UK.

F1 does not have an audience problem at all. Going hybrid has disappointed tens of thousands of noisy fans but the vast majority still tune in and love it.

F1GTRUeno

4,651 posts

176 months

Sunday 18th October
quotequote all
kambites said:
TheDeuce said:
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.
No, I think Ferrari needs a major change of corporate attitude if it's going to be a serious competitor.
Ferrari only ever start winning when they stop being so Italian.

They haven’t showed signs of putting people in to counter that.

Historically they’re in crisis more than they’re in form. They’re only the most successful by virtue of having been there the longest.

Absolutely shambles of an outfit.

TheDeuce

7,268 posts

24 months

Sunday 18th October
quotequote all
F1GTRUeno said:
kambites said:
TheDeuce said:
It's been 12 years, it's about due. Although I'm genuinely not convinced they're match fit as a team these days... Not legally at least.
No, I think Ferrari needs a major change of corporate attitude if it's going to be a serious competitor.
Ferrari only ever start winning when they stop being so Italian.

They haven’t showed signs of putting people in to counter that.

Historically they’re in crisis more than they’re in form. They’re only the most successful by virtue of having been there the longest.

Absolutely shambles of an outfit.
That is so true! When they go on a shopping spree and import a load of foreign talent, ideally headed up by someone strong enough tell the board to ps off and leave them to it... they start to have a chance!

Binotto is fully institutionalised at Ferrari so won't be telling the board anything - I get the impression he's more there to be the public figure that plays the board fiddle in fact. The daft thing is I LOVE Ferrari as an entity, a company and a sports car manufacturer. But at the sharp end of F1, they are surprisingly shabby.