Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

[ghost83]

I’m personally looking forward to this next 2yrs
Would love to be in something special for decent money!

We are in that no mans land area atm where not much is moving or happening at some point there will be a crash

[anonymous-user]

ghost83 said:

We are in that no mans land area atm where not much is moving or happening at some point there will be a crash

Tbh I think if there was going to be a crash it woulda been now, once stability comes back with the political situation and we approach Spring again I can't see a crash happening. Of course if Albert Steptoe does well in the election my predictions called all change.

[easytiger123]

lambo666 said:

Rich12, with regards to the Aventador S, Please disregard the black one at Premier GT as I have just bought it!
And was just over 50k less than the black one you linked to above.
1 owner car and just over 1k miles, Ex Peter Saywell car (well known collector with over 40 cars (zonda, koeneggseigg etc)
I looked at a few and this one felt right with reasonable part ex price given on my Gallardo Performante.
Have bitten the bullet now and hope they dont fall much further!
Good luck with your search, will add pics and start my own thread hopefully on Sunday after collection on Saturday.
From my recollection the cheapest Aventador S anywhere 6 months ago was 269k.

Just checked out the advert for the one you bought. That is one lovely looking Aventador S. Congratulations and enjoy it in good health!

[rich12]

Agreed. Love those wheels in silver.

[Drl22]

Raygun said:

Tbh I think if there was going to be a crash it woulda been now, once stability comes back with the political situation and we approach Spring again I can't see a crash happening. Of course if Albert Steptoe does well in the election my predictions called all change.

Precisely my thoughts. There has been a crash of sorts it’s now prices are down NOW dealers are discounting NOW, everyone is always waiting for for something like 2008/9. I don’t believe that will happen anytime soon.

[hunter 66]

Could be a lot worse as there are 3-4 times the number of new cars now , and all really exciting , better cars than those days , are there that many enthusiasts ? Yes there have been a lot of investors and new people in the market , but the enthusiasm of these buyers may have waned

[fridaypassion]

You can buy a 170k mclaren for 90k 80 if you are in the trade. Anyone waiting for much else I think will be disappointed. Those looking at Ferrari prices dropping and forecasting economic armageddon....it's McLaren that have disrupted the supercar market. Better looking (subjective I know) faster cars cheaper to buy and no messaging about playing dealer list games.

Granted its a perfect storm with Brexit but when we are over this prices might firm up a bit but it will never get back to never depreciating 458s etc as you always come back to "thats (insert name of mclaren model) money" its the woking mafia that have had the single biggest impact on this sector as they do kind of make purchases of other cars look questionable when you look what you can get a 570/720 for...

[davek_964]

fridaypassion said:

Granted its a perfect storm with Brexit but when we are over this prices might firm up a bit but it will never get back to never depreciating 458s etc as you always come back to "thats (insert name of mclaren model) money" its the woking mafia that have had the single biggest impact on this sector as they do kind of make purchases of other cars look questionable when you look what you can get a 570/720 for...

It's a double edged sword though.

I fully agree that McLarens can tempt people away. I have wanted a 458 for years, but when I was looking for a car in the summer I would have only got an older 458 coupe - with more miles - for the same money I paid for a 650S spider. To get a 458 spider, I'd have to have added another £30-40k - and frankly, I doubt it would be a better car, and certainly not a £40k better car.

But - even if the prices are coming down, the 458 has historically held it's prices a lot better than McLarens. So whilst I wasn't willing to pay more up front - I was aware that in the long term, it might cost me more. Whether that's true or not, I guess time will tell - but I went in fully aware that what I paid had very little relevance to what I'd get back when I sold it.

[MDL111]

isaldiri said:

MDL111 said:

out of interest (and forgive my complete lack of technical knowledge on this), but could you add a mechanical diff and proper passive suspension to a 12C or is that impossible? I like the engine and the carbon tub, but would want to make it a lot less complicated and a lot more track focused. what are their track/race cars running?

The Mclaren GT3 racing cars are running ohlins ttx, automated single clutch gearbox and a mechanical limited slip diff. All things are possible I suppose with sufficient resources/cash but you would have to be loony to try to add those to replace the existing bits in the road car as you would need a huge amount of road tuning to make it work anywhere near as well as it does....

Thanks, yeah unlikely to be feasible in a cost effective manner I guess

[WCZ]

isaldiri said:

I seriously always wonder at how people, especially prior owners as I believe you are, actually suggest adding power to a Mclaren as the first thing to do. They as a whole already have a considerable excess of power to grip whether 540 or Senna. The 570 especially so given the narower tyres and non existent aero at speed compared to the 650. Reducing the power to grip by adding more grip rather than power would result in a better car - not imo doing the opposite.

no real benefit to it imo, there was a video awhile back of a 650s in various states of tune vs each other in drag races and the standard car was actually quickest

I've seen 720's with an additional 150-200hp that are slower or absolutely marginally faster than the standard car too due to grip issues

[ghost83]

Raygun said:

Tbh I think if there was going to be a crash it woulda been now, once stability comes back with the political situation and we approach Spring again I can't see a crash happening. Of course if Albert Steptoe does well in the election my predictions called all change.

I think there’s still a bit to go tbh as the more recent stuff is dropping but the older stuff isn’t yet even though they’re not selling so I think the next 12 month will be very telling but I don’t think we are there yet

[davek_964]

ghost83 said:

I think there’s still a bit to go tbh as the more recent stuff is dropping but the older stuff isn’t yet even though they’re not selling so I think the next 12 month will be very telling but I don’t think we are there yet

It depends. I probably should sell my 360, and may next spring. On the other hand, I don't need to - and if prices fall significantly, why would I? The older the cars get, the less people are likely to have finance tied up in them and I think that if stuff stops selling, owners will simply decide to keep them and the number for sale will reduce. Which inevitably pushes prices back up anyway.

I'm curious - how long do you wait for the market crash? What if prices are only a little lower one year from now? Or two years from now? Do you keep waiting, or do you just accept that the market is what it is and while you're watching it, you could be driving the car you want?

[f1ten]

I sadly think there is a structural shift now in the market. Peaks and troughs for older cars as supply vanished is now no guarantee. Its clear youngsters don't have the thirst for cars or money or all living in cities, don't have the space either. So I am sad to say but buying a car as an investment is going to be less of a sure thing.
I'm only buying or holding on to cars I really want or like and when I'm bored it's time to sell... as I think values are going to be very disappointing in the future

[Terminator X]

ghost83 said:

I’m personally looking forward to this next 2yrs
Would love to be in something special for decent money!

We are in that no mans land area atm where not much is moving or happening at some point there will be a crash

Ah predicting a crash is the easy part, predicting when though is trickier imho either cars or houses, just buy what you want when you want. Those waiting for the crash spend years sometimes decades missing out on wonderful times.

TX.

[Jonny TVR]

Terminator X said:

Ah predicting a crash is the easy part, predicting when though is trickier imho either cars or houses, just buy what you want when you want. Those waiting for the crash spend years sometimes decades missing out on wonderful times.

TX.

agree

[BoxerF50]

cgt2 said:

I've seen this cycle three times over the past 25 years, was chatting to a very well known South East supercar dealer established since the 80s about this thread (not Talacrest but one of John's contemporaries). He shocked me a bit when he said he absolutely would not put any substantial money into stock at the moment with the present market. He's sitting on a couple of cars but by his standards nothing too lumpy and he is expecting to lose money on those.

Shock because I've known him in the past to buy things like F40's and 959's on a whim and happily take his chances on quite expensive machinery.

Boom and bust has happened before and will happen again (anyone remember the Ferrari market in 1989?).

I do and 1989 was ugly. I just finished up an article on exactly this. Things are about to get really interesting in the next couple of years.

[Drl22]

BoxerF50 said:

I do and 1989 was ugly. I just finished up an article on exactly this. Things are about to get really interesting in the next couple of years.

An interesting article and it would be very interesting to hear your views on how us mere mortals in the super car market might be effected rather than the rarified world of Hypercars. I suspect the impact won’t be as great.

[lambo666]

Just for some real world info....I have just collected my aventador s .... in the last 3 days the same dealer has sold the following
the blue aventador sv, 458 spyder, merc gtr and a huracan ... seems I am not the only one waiting any longer ....

[anonymous-user]

cgt2 said:

I've seen this cycle three times over the past 25 years, was chatting to a very well known South East supercar dealer established since the 80s about this thread (not Talacrest but one of John's contemporaries). He shocked me a bit when he said he absolutely would not put any substantial money into stock at the moment with the present market. He's sitting on a couple of cars but by his standards nothing too lumpy and he is expecting to lose money on those.

Shock because I've known him in the past to buy things like F40's and 959's on a whim and happily take his chances on quite expensive machinery.

Boom and bust has happened before and will happen again (anyone remember the Ferrari market in 1989?).

No doubt the market is not as buoyant as it was 3 or 4 years ago but my memories of 1989 was the market went pop overnight and we entered a recession. Until we enter a recession again I can't see rich car enthusiasts totally abandoning buying luxury cars.
I think we'd have to drop a long way to get to prices where they were 10 years ago for a lot of the classic cars right across the spectrum.

[430SD_LP640]

lambo666 said:

Just for some real world info....I have just collected my aventador s .... in the last 3 days the same dealer has sold the following
the blue aventador sv, 458 spyder, merc gtr and a huracan ... seems I am not the only one waiting any longer ....

interesting you say this. I wanted to p/x my performante coupe for a performante spyder - I thought I could have had a better price buying in winter! 2 weeks ago, I contacted a franchise dealer asking for a P/X quote (the car was brilliant with almost every option ticked, 3-digit milage, more importantly comfort seat!) and then went abroad for work. the dealer did not even follow up with me in the past 2 weeks. I called them this morning and was told the car was sold "at slightly higher than the advertised price as there were multiple buyers". I was very surprised to hear this. Then I saw your post...