Will Corona effect the Supercar Market
Discussion
av185 said:
GT4RS said:
What’s interesting about the world today is people are allowed to have different opinions. Lets not forget your recent opinion is it won’t be long before a perfect spec (to you) Ferrari pista will be able to be bought at retail for 220k! God help what’s going to happen to the values of our cars if a pista in no time at all drops to 220k retail, considering many are 300k to 350k at present!
No Pista has sold over £300k since last Autumn which is hardly surprising having regard to the sheer number of Pistas Speciales and Tributos currently for sale. You should know the market for these merely by the 2 lightly used decent spec Pistas which sold for c£290ks on CC last year.My recent post on RSVPs Amaris thread stated they are currently retailing at c£280k which is accurate if you do your research.
With late newer reg lightly used good spec franchised Tributos currently at c £225k retail these cars offer virtually identical performance and are actually rarer and fewer in manufacturing numbers than the overpriced Pista so the writing is on the wall for both this and the similarly overpriced Speciale price wise imo. This is even before you consider the threat to these prices from the cheaper Performante and various Mclarens mainly 720 s and 600LT both of which are c mid £130ks for decent spec and mileage 2019 cars and clearly offer incredible value despite not being everyones cup of tea.
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-porsche-9...
So in your opinion a Pista will drop 30% of its value in a short period, but your current cars are depreciation proof due to your ability to spec a car far better than anyone else on the planet. And when a 991.2 gt3 turns up for sale at 119k or below you are quick to say how poorly specified it is or the fact it has high mileage as it done more than a few thousand miles.
Oh and let’s not forget the new and used car market rely on each other, if new car production is in trouble that doesn’t bode well for used cars.
Happy Valentines Day x
Edited by GT4RS on Sunday 14th February 14:43
px1980 said:
GT4RS said:
I tested the new Tycan recently as I sold the daily macan and thought it might make a nice driver due to the tax benefits, lovely interior with excellent visibility and it went like the clappers. As fast if not faster than my 911.2, but it felt soulless in my opinion and the drive did very little for me. What shocked me was some of the younger generation in our company, they were blown away by it and all told me to get with the times when I said it was lacking a petrol engine.
Taycan is a big family sedan, weighs 2.5 tonnes and already has 0-60 figures that are matched by precisely 1 other car in Porsche's line-up, which happens to be the newest iteration of the top trim of their fastest ICE model, i.e. 992 Turbo S. Taycan is also Porsche's first-ever EV car, so the next models they'll release can only get better (faster, better handling, offering better range...). I think the other poster has a point - when Porsche (and other manufacturers) start releasing EV sport cars, their performance will beat that of petrol cars' by a large margin. It will have to - otherwise, enthusiasts attached to the sound or habit of driving petrol cars would find no reason to buy an EV sports car, and ultimately manufacturers want to sell more cars. So in 3-4 years' time we'll see £80k sports cars (new EV Lotus/Alpine, Cayman etc) which will do 0-60 in around 3 seconds, offer maximum torque from 0 mph and hopefully drive quite well, too, due to low centre of gravity etc. Or Japanese/Korean hot-hatches which will do 0-60 in under 4 secs... In other words, when looked at purely from performance perspective, there's a chance EVs will offer performance of today's £200k+ supercars for 1/3 of the price relatively soon. Of course, the sound will be missing but how many people will pay a massive premium for that? Personally I own 2 petrol cars and have a 3rd (Cayman GTS 4.0) on order and can't wait. I also have no view on the short-term (as in, next 12 months) prospects of supercar prices; but there is a risk the above scenario will materialise.
Edited by px1980 on Friday 12th February 11:12
The tycan I tested was great in terms of build quality, looks and it drove as it should. But something in my brain just didn’t gel with it at all. The sports button was comical, just made the electric motor sound even worse. I also noticed far more tyre noise than normal and can only assume it’s amplified due to no engine noise.
Maybe I’m old fashioned, my opc has already told me the likes of the tycan is what there future is built around.
Ferrari’s situation really is an interesting one they feel like they potentially could get themselves in similar situation to McLaren and Aston were H2 2019. Difference is those two had a lot of new cars sat looking for a home, with Ferrari it seems like there’s a lot of used inventory. I suppose if Ferrari dealers can still sell new cars they have coming through things will be okay but if they start having to take new cars into stock things could get problematic.
There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
Cheib said:
Ferrari’s situation really is an interesting one they feel like they potentially could get themselves in similar situation to McLaren and Aston were H2 2019. Difference is those two had a lot of new cars sat looking for a home, with Ferrari it seems like there’s a lot of used inventory. I suppose if Ferrari dealers can still sell new cars they have coming through things will be okay but if they start having to take new cars into stock things could get problematic.
There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
Competely agree...There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
and that is a major risk to the Ferrari model. A lot of its based on owners buying multiple cars to work their way up the Ferrari "ladder". Issue is few keep all these cars and many flip them back into the market after 6-12 months. If the used Ferrari market gets flooded with excess inventory, its going to put major downward pressure on pricing. If this happens, a lot of these depositors will be reevaluating if they really want to be acquiring multiple quickly depreciating assets.
I just did an article on last Ferrari's 2020 results and in the earnings call there was a lot less discussion on the waitlist then there has been in the past.
SSO said:
Cheib said:
Ferrari’s situation really is an interesting one they feel like they potentially could get themselves in similar situation to McLaren and Aston were H2 2019. Difference is those two had a lot of new cars sat looking for a home, with Ferrari it seems like there’s a lot of used inventory. I suppose if Ferrari dealers can still sell new cars they have coming through things will be okay but if they start having to take new cars into stock things could get problematic.
There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
Competely agree...There was an interesting nugget in the recent Collecitng Cars podcast....HR Owen have 500 deposits for new cars over the next three years....half of those orders are from customers have more than two cars on order and a third of them have four cars on order. That feels to me like they’re very reliant on a relatively small number of customers for a big % of their order book. Or put it another way forty or so customers have got 160 cars on order with them.
and that is a major risk to the Ferrari model. A lot of its based on owners buying multiple cars to work their way up the Ferrari "ladder". Issue is few keep all these cars and many flip them back into the market after 6-12 months. If the used Ferrari market gets flooded with excess inventory, its going to put major downward pressure on pricing. If this happens, a lot of these depositors will be reevaluating if they really want to be acquiring multiple quickly depreciating assets.
I just did an article on last Ferrari's 2020 results and in the earnings call there was a lot less discussion on the waitlist then there has been in the past.
SSO said:
I just did an article on last Ferrari's 2020 results and in the earnings call there was a lot less discussion on the waitlist then there has been in the past.
Often what is not said than what is said that’s important. As you highlighted with Aston not being keen to discuss DBX order book.GT4RS said:
if new car production is in trouble that doesn’t bode well for used cars.
Incorrect.The opposite is true.
Fewer new cars equals fewer used cars so used prices rise.
Exactly what happened last year and exactly the same is anticipated to happen this year. In fact it is happening already with some models.
Simple supply and demand.
GT4RS said:
So in your opinion a Pista will drop 30% of its value in a short period, but your current cars are depreciation proof due to your ability to spec a car far better than anyone else on the planet. And when a 991.2 gt3 turns up for sale at 119k or below you are quick to say how poorly specified it is or the fact it has high mileage as it done more than a few thousand miles.
Your words not mine re the GT3. The market decides not me as you know full well.You must be the only person in the world who seriously thinks poorly specced high mileage cars, Gt3 or otherwise are worth the same as well specced more expensive appropriately specced ones.
As already pointed out we've covered these points time and time again so read back on the thread and please try and learn from points already covered.
Cheib said:
SSO said:
I just did an article on last Ferrari's 2020 results and in the earnings call there was a lot less discussion on the waitlist then there has been in the past.
Often what is not said than what is said that’s important. As you highlighted with Aston not being keen to discuss DBX order book.This will be an interesting marker for the supercar market. Senna about to be listed on Collecting Cars
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
Cheib said:
This will be an interesting marker for the supercar market. Senna about to be listed on Collecting Cars
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
Indeed, but the 765LT is 'perhaps' the more desirable car (although sold out) is the better buy at less than half the price?https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
Will be watching with interest.
This will be an interesting marker for the supercar market. Senna about to be listed on Collecting Cars
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-s...
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