Will Corona effect the Supercar Market

Will Corona effect the Supercar Market

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Discussion

xcentric

452 posts

174 months

Monday 6th April
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cgt2 said:
Manual 430 Spider on Auto Trader, priced for quick sale apparently. Let's see how quickly it moves, it's £30k more than I paid for my manual 430 Coupe in 2014.
Is that the £92k one? Doesn't seem especially cheap to me..... even pre Covid-19

cgt2

1,620 posts

143 months

Monday 6th April
quotequote all
xcentric said:
Is that the £92k one? Doesn't seem especially cheap to me..... even pre Covid-19
You said it!

markst

Original Poster:

226 posts

120 months

Monday 6th April
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I sold my manual 430 spider some 18 months ago and was thinking about buying another or a 458 when this lot kicked off...…

if I can get a manual again for nearer 60 then I might be interested. do love changing gear

GT4RS

2,349 posts

152 months

Monday 6th April
quotequote all
xcentric said:
cgt2 said:
Manual 430 Spider on Auto Trader, priced for quick sale apparently. Let's see how quickly it moves, it's £30k more than I paid for my manual 430 Coupe in 2014.
Is that the £92k one? Doesn't seem especially cheap to me..... even pre Covid-19
Just taken a look, I say they have zero chance of selling that even for £70k considering they current climate. I guess we will never know!

andy97

3,897 posts

177 months

Monday 6th April
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priley said:
Surely a gradual erosion in car values is inevitable for a while? .......
I am certainly no expert in buying or selling Supercars (I wish) but surely for there to be a gradual erosion in prices there still needs to some sort of market. There isn’t. We can’t get out, people are losing their jobs or having much reduced income with bills still to pay. Cash flow at every level and every circumstance is very poor. Pension pots have reduced in value. Etc etc etc. We are probably going to enter recession and there has already been a structural change in the economy which sees the government borrowing on a biblical scale. This is like WW2 financing and “Total war”. That borrowing will have to be paid for.

I doubt that (m)any cars are actually being traded. There are no (or only very limited buyers). Dealers will go bust and their stock will go to the Administrator. Queue fire sales, and still not many buyers.

That isn’t a gradual erosion, that’s Armageddon!

All IMHO, and I admit my glass is way less than half empty and I am being pessimistic but I don’t see it as an unrealistic scenario. I am sure that things will return to a more “normal” scenario, whatever that is eventually, but “eventually” could be a while away.

zedmtrappe

98 posts

51 months

Tuesday 7th April
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andy97 said:
and I am being pessimistic but I don’t see it as an unrealistic scenario. .
Totally realistic scenario IMHO.


I think what Coronavirus has done is ffwd & worsen the inevitable crash that was due anyway.

Just stumbled upon this vid last night - from Dec '19 - youtuber with 800K subs advocating interest-only finance deals on a £200K Lambo.... even without the benefit of hindsight this is obviously total madness... ( may have made sense 3 or 4 years ago... but even so..)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43x4_5Mh9FI

Worse... as recently as 1 week ago he's still banging the same drum!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wffx-uJVKU ( under the heading ' Sensible Supercar Shopping | Car Finance Calculator!! ' FFS!)


The writing is the wall...

PrancingHorses

2,625 posts

162 months

Tuesday 7th April
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Well 458 Specials - the car's that people said would only go up in value due to being the last naturally aspirated V8 etc etc have now dropped from circa £300-330k down to £230-260k - that's a rather big drop already.

GT4RS

2,349 posts

152 months

Tuesday 7th April
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PrancingHorses said:
Well 458 Specials - the car's that people said would only go up in value due to being the last naturally aspirated V8 etc etc have now dropped from circa £300-330k down to £230-260k - that's a rather big drop already.
Currently 28 of them for sale on piston heads alone, so plenty of choice! Big question is there even 20 uk buyers willing to pull the trigger in today climate, would need big balls if you did.

PrancingHorses

2,625 posts

162 months

Tuesday 7th April
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GT4RS said:
Currently 28 of them for sale on piston heads alone, so plenty of choice! Big question is there even 20 uk buyers willing to pull the trigger in today climate, would need big balls if you did.
Big balls of Steel needed ....saying that though I know a few people with deep pockets who are actually making money with Covid-19 by supplying the NHS so some people may come out of this on the other side with even deeper pockets and much cheaper cars and homes to buy!

21ATS

143 posts

27 months

Tuesday 7th April
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andy97 said:
All IMHO, and I admit my glass is way less than half empty and I am being pessimistic but I don’t see it as an unrealistic scenario. I am sure that things will return to a more “normal” scenario, whatever that is eventually, but “eventually” could be a while away.
I employ a guy in China (my business imports 90% of it's product from China).

I was asking him how things are over there. He's in Guangzhou, about 100 miles or so north of Hong Kong. This is his response today:-

The virus is very terrible, China may face the second outbreak, many people do not believe in the number of the virus case here, we have stocked food for half to two years, because there is a high chance of another lockdown for more cities.

This is the problem. Never mind how long this takes to get back to "normal". When does normal start? When we've eradicated every episode of this virus?

We can't risk life returning back to normality until there is an effective vaccine for this problem. That genuinely could be 12-24 months away.

Anyone thinking this is going to be over in three months is delsional, the rest of the year at the minimum IMO.

Edited by 21ATS on Tuesday 7th April 13:54

Drl22

339 posts

20 months

Tuesday 7th April
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21ATS said:
andy97 said:
All IMHO, and I admit my glass is way less than half empty and I am being pessimistic but I don’t see it as an unrealistic scenario. I am sure that things will return to a more “normal” scenario, whatever that is eventually, but “eventually” could be a while away.
I employ a guy in China (my business imports 90% of it's product from China).

I was asking him how things are over there. He's in Guangzhou, about 100 miles or so north of Hong Kong. This is his response today:-

The virus is very terrible, China may face the second outbreak, many people do not believe in the number of the virus case here, we have stocked food for half to two years, because there is a high chance of another lockdown for more cities.

This is the problem. Never mind how long this takes to get back to "normal". When does normal start? When we've eradicated every episode of this virus?

We can't risk life returning back to normality until there is an effective vaccine for this problem. That genuinely could be 12-24 months away.

Anyone thinking this is going to be over in three months is delsional, the rest of the year at the minimum IMO.

Edited by 21ATS on Tuesday 7th April 13:54
This may very well be the case but it won’t be lockdown for a year unless it is to such a reduced level that everyone can work. That would mean schools and nurseries have to be reopened and before you know it that is pretty much normal life with some social distancing thrown in.

No matter which way you spin it the economy simply cannot afford to keep paying people and businesses. These measures can only be implemented for a limited time no matter what the state of the virus containment is. This is actually an even harsher reality than the one you delivered and a much scarier one too.

zedmtrappe

98 posts

51 months

Tuesday 7th April
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Drl22 said:
This may very well be the case but it won’t be lockdown for a year unless it is to such a reduced level that everyone can work.
For sure this is what we will be looking at.

It's a terrible balancing act & the ultimate dilemma: lives vs economy.

Right now the public is, by and large; behind the measures to save lives.

Once the financial implications of this approach really start to bite - public sentiment will soon shift, and fairly quickly I imagine.

There really will be no other option than to try and get things moving again and keep the elderly + vulnerable shielded as much as possible, but with the view that a certain amount of 'collateral damage' ( for want of a better expression) will be inevitable + therefore acceptable.

What will this mean from a legal / litigation point of view I wonder? If the government ease the restrictions and there is a huge spike in cases - will Gina Miller be starting class-action lawsuits against the government on behalf of the deceased families ???

zedmtrappe

98 posts

51 months

Tuesday 7th April
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PS: how the hell do you stockpile 2 years worth of food ?? !


BJWoods

4,994 posts

239 months

Tuesday 7th April
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zedmtrappe said:
PS: how the hell do you stockpile 2 years worth of food ?? !
dried food, ricee, etc,etc - not the most exciting.. but will keep you alive

andy97

3,897 posts

177 months

Tuesday 7th April
quotequote all
zedmtrappe said:
Drl22 said:
This may very well be the case but it won’t be lockdown for a year unless it is to such a reduced level that everyone can work.
For sure this is what we will be looking at.

It's a terrible balancing act & the ultimate dilemma: lives vs economy.

Right now the public is, by and large; behind the measures to save lives.

Once the financial implications of this approach really start to bite - public sentiment will soon shift, and fairly quickly I imagine.

There really will be no other option than to try and get things moving again and keep the elderly + vulnerable shielded as much as possible, but with the view that a certain amount of 'collateral damage' ( for want of a better expression) will be inevitable + therefore acceptable.
Even if lockdown isn’t for a year, and measures are taken to get things moving again (and agree they will have to be) I doubt that is buying too many Supercars, Rolexes, artworks, boats etc etc.
Yes, there will be exceptions to the rule, and some people will do well out of the crisis (there are always some) but that won’t be a return to the situation we have seen in the last few years.
Many businesses are going to go bust, even large well known ones, and then there is the supply chain......
We are more likely to see people returning (financed) cars and mortgaged houses and putting the keys through the letter box of the lender. Then what?
Again, all in my honest (but amateur) opinion!

Edited by andy97 on Tuesday 7th April 15:27


Edited by andy97 on Tuesday 7th April 15:34

mike01606

523 posts

104 months

Tuesday 7th April
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I've just had a letter off the bank..... My savings account and ISA have just dropped from next to nothing to 0.01% interest gross per annum.

When this settles and I can actually go tyre kicking I know what I'll be doing and it won't be checking my bank balances. Motorhome first (which I think will be in demand for the new staycations we'll all be tied to for a year or two), then something interesting! smile

davek_964

6,752 posts

130 months

Tuesday 7th April
quotequote all
mike01606 said:
I've just had a letter off the bank..... My savings account and ISA have just dropped from next to nothing to 0.01% interest gross per annum.

When this settles and I can actually go tyre kicking I know what I'll be doing and it won't be checking my bank balances. Motorhome first (which I think will be in demand for the new staycations we'll all be tied to for a year or two), then something interesting! smile
Had the same email - guessing you bank with the same people I do.

Fortunately, since buying the 650 I may have savings accounts, but there is very little in the way of savings in them. I was obviously thinking ahead wink

ghost83

3,880 posts

145 months

Tuesday 7th April
quotequote all
Agree a lot is going to happen

But by the very nature of the government saying 3 month mortgage holidays and payment holidays on debts that tells the majority it’s 3 months, now they’re going to review our current situations every 3 week I can honestly see us been more restricted after Easter Monday because idiots aren’t listening and still going out!

The economy is buggered anyway after this 3 month period inflation on mortgages will go through the roof over time self employed are going to be brought upto the same tax thresholds as well apparantly to help repay all of this, businesses will sink dramatically and those that don’t and hang on by the skin of their teeth are they going to be able to afford all their staff on the current minimum wage? The next 12 month I think is going to be a man absolute bloodbath but I don’t think any of that will start until in around 3 month time when everything starts to re open!

Chris Harris reckons whatever car you see knock a third off the price, I’ve heard others state knock 50% off the price but everyone is going to wait which means no one will spend money which in turn drives the prices down further!

I think cars under 10k will largely be unaffected but cars above that will take a hit on a sliding scale!


davek_964

6,752 posts

130 months

Tuesday 7th April
quotequote all
I very much doubt lockdown will last 3 months - the economy simply can't afford it. And as for self employed and tax rates, if you mean IR35 I think that was planned a long time before Covid-19.

I agree with some of the other posts - businesses etc. will reopen by the start of May at the latest.

I do agree that expensive frivolous toys - cars and other things - are going to get hit hard. Even people who keep their jobs in the short term must realise that the effect of all this is significant. I for one would like a period of time to be sure my job / company is secure before I went on any big spending sprees.

ghost83

3,880 posts

145 months

Tuesday 7th April
quotequote all
davek_964 said:
I very much doubt lockdown will last 3 months - the economy simply can't afford it. And as for self employed and tax rates, if you mean IR35 I think that was planned a long time before Covid-19.

I agree with some of the other posts - businesses etc. will reopen by the start of May at the latest.

I do agree that expensive frivolous toys - cars and other things - are going to get hit hard. Even people who keep their jobs in the short term must realise that the effect of all this is significant. I for one would like a period of time to be sure my job / company is secure before I went on any big spending sprees.
We’ve been told by our local mp they expect it to be June 1st