Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions

Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions

Author
Discussion

ghost83

3,742 posts

143 months

Friday 27th March
quotequote all
The day a 458 is around the 50-60k mark I’m gonna Juno on that,

I’ve been watching a black manual Gallardo for about a year but the price of that keeps jumping around, last year it was 84k then 89k then 94k then 89k then 92k and it’s settled at 89k I see a lot of similar ones around the 69-79k mark so wouldn’t mind it dropping to around 50-60k,

If it will ever happen though god knows!

Penrhyn

42 posts

51 months

Friday 27th March
quotequote all
Market correction on all used supercars is well overdue. I would imagine it will be some months before we get the all clear to go and see / purchase.

Additionally I expect to see dealers coming up with fantastic PCP deals , like the NEW Aston Vantage V8 24 months @£1k per month.

davek_964

6,622 posts

128 months

Friday 27th March
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MDL111 said:
I imagine some people who took that advice and thought “worst case my (perfect resale spec) 458 is going to cost me 20-30k for 2 years, so I’ll finance it with little equity” might be feeling rather like they shouldn’t have taken that advice at face value if they have to liquidate now to pay for other stuff / not getting paid because self-employed etc etc
I don't finance cars - but in summer last year I was debating between a 458 and a McLaren. I have no doubt I would have loved the 458 - however, the difference in price (~£40k if I wanted a 458 Spider rather than a 650 Spider) was just too much to swallow. Plus, I preferred the styling of the McLarens - exterior and interior.
But - I was well aware that the McLaren would shed £££s and the 458 would likely keep value a bit better.

I haven't regretted my choice in the last 7 months - but if I had been "sensible" (relatively speaking) and bought a 458, I think given the current - completely unpredictable - situation, I think I'd be regretting buying the "safe" 458!

Glad I went with my heart not my head. Of course, if I was really sensible I'd still have the money in the bank - especially since I wiped out most of my "cash" safe in the knowledge that I had a decent amount in shares. Oh, how I'm laughing now wink

cgt2

1,553 posts

141 months

Friday 27th March
quotequote all
There are huge numbers of 458's/720's etc etc compared to ten years ago. A 355 Berlinetta manual was relatively plentiful during the last blip in 2009, plenty of good ones around at £30-£35k and even up to 2013 when I bought a really nice one for under £40k but I would wager there were fractions made in comparison to the hundreds of 458's around.

Has the market grown exponentially to reflect the vast additional numbers? Time will reveal but I suspect not. This is where the crunch will come in.

ghost83

3,742 posts

143 months

Friday 27th March
quotequote all
cgt2 said:
There are huge numbers of 458's/720's etc etc compared to ten years ago. A 355 Berlinetta manual was relatively plentiful during the last blip in 2009, plenty of good ones around at £30-£35k and even up to 2013 when I bought a really nice one for under £40k but I would wager there were fractions made in comparison to the hundreds of 458's around.

Has the market grown exponentially to reflect the vast additional numbers? Time will reveal but I suspect not. This is where the crunch will come in.
I’d quite happily buy a 355, always loved them, wife hates them though

Cheib

18,468 posts

128 months

Friday 27th March
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The market has definitely grown but not sure the market has grown exponentially....I think the manufacturers have been very clever about creating demand through the limited edition/halo cars. I was listening to Chris Harris’s Collecting Cars Podcast last week...he was talking with Ed Lovett about the market. Lovett said he’d spoken to one of the big Ferrari dealers/groups in the UK who has orders for 300 cars at the moment....half those cars were ordered by people who have 4 or more cars on order ! Presumably those people are all chasing the next Halo car....812 TDF/GTO or something else.

Personally I find it hard to think that all those people are really still going to be chasing those cars.

DeejRC

1,227 posts

35 months

Friday 27th March
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My instinct is heart says 50% cuts, but head says 33% cuts.

If that means an F12 (only) down at £100k before the end of the year...I will consider that most acceptable.

jonah35

3,801 posts

110 months

Friday 27th March
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Mclaren 570 and 720 are crap

I was out in mine the other day and couldn’t wait to get out of it. Bag of crap.

Looks good but a 5 series is better

Or a huracan or R8

Mclaren like a big kit car!

Also when a 570 is £50k and 3 years old who will buy them if the economy in turmoil

RSbandit

1,027 posts

85 months

Friday 27th March
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Ha good man Jonah u are spot on!

Pvapour

8,706 posts

206 months

Saturday 28th March
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There is a flip side.. i ‘did’ worry too much about putting mileage on mine really, now (when timing permits) i wont give a damn, i’ll be driving it everywhere to take advantage of the situation, further de-valuing? Probably, but dont care now smile ive been gifted freedom of use.

Bispal

647 posts

104 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
Life is measured in enjoyment & memories not in money lost in the pursuit of enjoyment. People rarely lament the money they spent on a holiday and desire a return on what they paid? A supercar is not a daily purchase it is something to be enjoyed, like a holiday.

As a supercar owner I am really not too concerned about future prices. I thought long and hard about the 3 special cars I have and they are all long term keepers and I enjoy them all. If prices go down it won't impact as many supercar owners as you may think as, like me, they will hold on to their cars longer term and drive them even more as mileage won't have as big an impact. Like any investment you only lose money if you sell, in fact some cars may be harder to get hold of as owners may not sell.

In these unprecedented times the losses I may make on my cars and I have already made on my investments, pensions & property are at the back of my mind and TBH not even concerning me as all I care about is the health and safety of my family and the wider world. If my family come out of this healthy and I am down to my Mk 1 MX5 I will be very content to feel the sun on my face, the wind in my hair and be free to wonder at this amazing world...........


Claret m

20 posts

22 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
Bispal said:
Life is measured in enjoyment & memories not in money lost in the pursuit of enjoyment. People rarely lament the money they spent on a holiday and desire a return on what they paid? A supercar is not a daily purchase it is something to be enjoyed, like a holiday.

As a supercar owner I am really not too concerned about future prices. I thought long and hard about the 3 special cars I have and they are all long term keepers and I enjoy them all. If prices go down it won't impact as many supercar owners as you may think as, like me, they will hold on to their cars longer term and drive them even more as mileage won't have as big an impact. Like any investment you only lose money if you sell, in fact some cars may be harder to get hold of as owners may not sell.

In these unprecedented times the losses I may make on my cars and I have already made on my investments, pensions & property are at the back of my mind and TBH not even concerning me as all I care about is the health and safety of my family and the wider world. If my family come out of this healthy and I am down to my Mk 1 MX5 I will be very content to feel the sun on my face, the wind in my hair and be free to wonder at this amazing world...........
The best post I have ever seen on PH. Thanks

Taffy66

3,629 posts

55 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
Bispal said:
Life is measured in enjoyment & memories not in money lost in the pursuit of enjoyment. People rarely lament the money they spent on a holiday and desire a return on what they paid? A supercar is not a daily purchase it is something to be enjoyed, like a holiday.

As a supercar owner I am really not too concerned about future prices. I thought long and hard about the 3 special cars I have and they are all long term keepers and I enjoy them all. If prices go down it won't impact as many supercar owners as you may think as, like me, they will hold on to their cars longer term and drive them even more as mileage won't have as big an impact. Like any investment you only lose money if you sell, in fact some cars may be harder to get hold of as owners may not sell.

In these unprecedented times the losses I may make on my cars and I have already made on my investments, pensions & property are at the back of my mind and TBH not even concerning me as all I care about is the health and safety of my family and the wider world. If my family come out of this healthy and I am down to my Mk 1 MX5 I will be very content to feel the sun on my face, the wind in my hair and be free to wonder at this amazing world...........

William Wordsworth.

jakesmith

6,789 posts

124 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
My feelings are that supercars today are considerably more expensive than say 10 years ago, obvs allowing for inflation. When you could buy a GT2 or 360 or Gallardo etc for £25k-£50k sort of money, there were possibly more people who were highly leveraged and less able to weather a financial storm who were then distress selling.

We know that GFC 2008 lead to a higher concentration of wealth. I don't think as many supercar owners today have scraped into a 570 or 488 etc they are considerably more expensive and the older cars have gone up 2x-3x in some cases and aren't available, only the R8 and GTR really offer anything close to the supercar experience now under £60k and of course they are not generally considered to be supercars, just close-ish

So maybe owners of supercars now are richer and better able to hold on. The sort of person who was a buyer of the older supercars when they were £35k-£40k might now be leasing a new C63, M4, RS4, Range Rover for similar monthlies but without the running costs, and leasing is obviously much bigger now than last time around in 2008.

footsoldier

1,601 posts

145 months

Saturday 28th March
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Well said Bispal.

f1ten

1,909 posts

106 months

Saturday 28th March
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I'm in agreement with footsoldier.
There is no outcome from this that will see supercar prices go back up.
Real wealth and jobs have been brutally cut in a matter of days. The stock market did not like the BS of the huge injection of free money and now the US is giving helicopter money.
Lots of people will need to plough excess cash back into their businesses and some will simply have to fold or liquidate as the quantum of business or orders or contracts drop off... Let alone the good time feelings in society have gone for now...

If you were bold enough to have done a pcp on a modern supercar and it's now leaving no equity, you will certainly think long and hard about buying another one in the short term.
We are talking about a global issue here...

There are always people saying lots of people are not going to be financially affected by a recession but fail to understand that even a hugely successful business might be owed millions by a supplier then all of a sudden doesn't get paid. It goes on and on from there...

I am well aware my ferrari is for sure just lost a min of 20% an d could likely be a lot more once we see where the market is. Clearly I certainly would not want to sell and if I can then I will hold. But those saying there will be no chnage in values are kidding themselves on or they are walking around blind without a cane...
This is the biggest global event we have ever seen in 90 yrs... Oecd says this is bigger than credit crunch of 08 which saw every single asset class get hammered...
Owning a car is certianly lower down my priority than my family so yes my ferrari would go if it had to. Its merely a car and cars are supposed to drop in value.

Anyway stay safe and let's try and focus on everyone staying healthy an d getting back to productivity.

monthefish

19,472 posts

184 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
carspath said:
I am not in the market to buy or sell a supercar , but am curious as to how quickly Dealers and Private Sellers will , or are forced to , react to a major change in trading conditions .


I browse the PH Classifieds (too) regularly , and it appears that there has been absolutely no change in the advertised prices for most supercars .
Gallardo prices have dropped around 33% over the last 18-24 months, whereas they were fairly stable over the prior 3/4 year period.

BlackR8

303 posts

30 months

Saturday 28th March
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monthefish said:
Gallardo prices have dropped around 33% over the last 18-24 months, whereas they were fairly stable over the prior 3/4 year period.
If I remember correctly even in the 2008 crash the bottom for an early Gallardo with no story was approx. £60k and they have stayed there or thereabouts for the last decade. Seems for Lamborghinis this might be the bottom of the depreciation curve regardless of economic climate but only time will tell.

carspath

Original Poster:

610 posts

130 months

Saturday 28th March
quotequote all
Great post Bispal .

But of course , your fall back , last car , is arguably the most fun real world car ever ; )
Ripping off Lotus was never so brilliantly executed biggrin

(Just getting the hang of these smilies -- they are quite fun aren't they -- just need to figure out how to get the coloured icons onto my posts now !!)

the-photographer

1,592 posts

129 months

Sunday 29th March
quotequote all
cgt2 said:
There are huge numbers of 458's/720's etc etc compared to ten years ago. A 355 Berlinetta manual was relatively plentiful during the last blip in 2009, plenty of good ones around at £30-£35k and even up to 2013 when I bought a really nice one for under £40k but I would wager there were fractions made in comparison to the hundreds of 458's around.

Has the market grown exponentially to reflect the vast additional numbers? Time will reveal but I suspect not. This is where the crunch will come in.
https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk

No data for 355, its aggregated into "missing" 4000 cars

458 = 1350
488 = 1400
Cal = 1400
812 = 300 (!!!)

570 = 800