AML - Stock Market Listing

AML - Stock Market Listing

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Discussion

RL17

877 posts

57 months

Thursday 1st March 2018
quotequote all
Valkyrie being built in sufficient numbers so that it should be profitable (probably in JV) in 2019. But there's a lot to get right with it.

Need new Vantage to sell in numbers/volumes to justify increased costs and staff at Gaydon new hires (& more staff to be located at Red Bull) and also DBX to be a success to support new St Athan set up and development costs for next and next etc.

Given DBX and strong AM and now AMR brands plus all the specials (and Rapide - a name previously used by Lagonda a few times) I wonder whether Lagonda brand strong enough in long run.

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all

The Chinese motor manufacturer Geely has acquired almost 10 per cent of Daimler for about $9bn, becoming its largest shareholder in the latest sign of the global ambitions of the group.

This indirectly gives them a stake in Aston Martin of nearly 0.5%.

Geely already own Volvo, the London Taxi Cab maker, and a 51% stake in Lotus.

Li Shufu founded Geely in 1986 as a refrigerator maker, with money borrowed from his family. He transformed the company into a success, selling inexpensive products to Chinese consumers.
He only began car manufacturing in 2002.

Together with electric and autonomous, are we seeing the begining of major changes, in the long-standing established order of motor manufacturers.








RL17

877 posts

57 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all
We do look at maps of the world with UK and western Europe at the centre. If look at world map with Asia centred it's slightly different.

More than half world live in a smallish circle (compared to rest of world) in SE Asia

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/...

and huge growth middle classes there over next 10-12 years will increase shift.


Tata from India bought Tetley tea in 2000, and JLR in 2008 (both arms of which have done pretty well although diesel engines figure heavily in current line up).

UB sold to Yildiz ( a turkish conglomerate) in 2014 - so McVities and Jaffa cakes owned there.

continuing shift worth a thought over tea and biscuits!

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all

No announcement yet, but here is some fresh market talk.

https://news.sky.com/story/aston-martin-lines-up-b...



RobDown

3,800 posts

92 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all
Kleinman is normally very well informed

I struggle to believe they will go for a sole listing in New York, the natural home for this one should be London. And a dual listing seems unnecessary (cost wise) at this point.

Might be fun to put a bit of money into it

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all

RobDown said:
I struggle to believe they will go for a sole listing in New York, the natural home for this one should be London.
And a dual listing seems unnecessary (cost wise) at this point.

Might be fun to put a bit of money into it

Kleinman - his catchphrase is always, "Yes, that's right Ian".

Agree, 'Hand made in England, listed in USA', does not have the same ring to it.

A bit of money being the operative word. Just 18 cars sold during February in UK, but supposedly worth £5 billion.

It is the sort of shareholding where I like to frame the share certificate, but they will probably refuse to issue certificates.
See you at the AGM, Rob.





RobDown

3,800 posts

92 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all
I know your comment was slightly tongue in cheek Jon , but AML could probably do a roaring trade in share certificates (with maybe a nice picture of a DB5 on).

Would make a great gift for someone to buy them a share in the company that could be framed. smile

RL17

877 posts

57 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all
Would like a London listing too but there is a case for NY......

New York first and London six months later if you sell the global brand/global company better listing on NYSE patter - higher fees as well

US is main market & Andrea Bonomi of Investindustrial born in New York too

Ferrari went NY before Milan

London especially FTSE 100 very bank, energy and mining orientated - not much glamour in dropping into top of FTSE 250

Think all main listed car makers have a NY listing too

edit - Lazards appointed December - is tomorrows 11.15 CET announcement going to be a car?

HBradley

1,037 posts

145 months

Monday 5th March 2018
quotequote all
RL17 said:
Would like a London listing too but there is a case for NY......
As was mentioned in the article, It’s also Brexit-proof.

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all

HBradley said:
As was mentioned in the article, It’s also Brexit-proof.

You have lost me with that, Humphrey.

The Company is domiciled in the UK.

Extract from article;
' While the UK car market has been beset by Brexit-related jitters, a decision to list in New York would be unrelated to the UK's departure from the European Union, the source added. '




RobDown

3,800 posts

92 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
Brexit is not really a material factor for listing. We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.

The bigger issue will be the target investor base (and prestige). As Reg said earlier most car manufacturers have a US listing and the best way of Aston getting US investor attention is to be listed there.

But the benefit is in my view marginal and I’d hope that AML would go for a UK listing to begin with, partly because it’s the natural home here, partly because it would give UK PMs a nice alternative to miners and banks smile

Oh and at GBP5Bn it would just squeeze into the FTSE 100 thanks to a couple of stocks scheduled to be demoted

And at that point I better “recuse” myself smile

Zod

35,295 posts

222 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
Brexit should not be a factor for UK IPOs, but at the moment it seems to be. Most of the IPOs currently active in the UK market are for non-UK companies. UK businesses are shy of pushing ahead at the moment, but there are signs of companies looking at trying in September or November.

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all

RobDown said:
We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals, and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.

Agree with that, so;

Present fundamentals do not equal £5,000,000,000. The 2017 (and probably 2018) P/E number would be too big for the column.
The last sale was I think at £368 million, and record production of over 7,000 was achieved soon after that.

The big IPO sell must therefore be purely on future prospects, ie. DBX.

They really will be able to use that frequently used motor manufacturers saying, in the case of the DBX,
'this is the most important car in the history of the company'.

Thinking about the 2018 financial year, UK DB11 sales are slowing (don't know worldwide), and the new Vantage production will only be for half of the year.
Perhaps therefore, if profits growth is modest in 2018, an early flotation would be better.
Having said that though, do profits forecasts still normally appear in an IPO prospectus?







Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 6th March 10:48

Zod

35,295 posts

222 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

RobDown said:
We value stocks based on future prospects and fundamentals, and those aren’t materially driven by the listing location.

Agree with that, so;

Present fundamentals do not equal £5,000,000,000. The 2017 (and probably 2018) P/E number would be too big for the column.
The last sale was I think at £368 million, and record production of over 7,000 was achieved soon after that.

The big IPO sell must therefore be purely on future prospects, ie. DBX.

They really will be able to use that frequently used motor manufacturers saying, in the case of the DBX,
'this is the most important car in the history of the company'.

Thinking about the 2018 financial year, UK DB11 sales are slowing (don't know worldwide), and the new Vantage production will only be for half of the year.
Perhaps therefore, if profits growth is modest in 2018, an early flotation would be better.
Having said that though, do profits forecasts still normally appear in an IPO prospectus?







Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 6th March 10:48
Profit forecasts rarely appear in IPO prospectuses because of liability concerns. Forecasts get to the market through the "independent" connected analysts' research.

HBradley

1,037 posts

145 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

You have lost me with that, Humphrey.

The Company is domiciled in the UK.

Extract from article;
' While the UK car market has been beset by Brexit-related jitters, a decision to list in New York would be unrelated to the UK's departure from the European Union, the source added. '
Jon, unless I've mis-interpreted the quote, the fact that the offering is in NY would insulate it from Brexit? Or am I wrong?

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all

Zod said:
Profit forecasts rarely appear in IPO prospectuses because of liability concerns. Forecasts get to the market through the "independent" connected analysts' research.

Thank you Zod.

I spotted your use of quotation marks. wink

If there is to be a float, then perhaps an early one will work best for the sellers.

I meant to refer to the marked decrease in net assets. Have not seen the 2017 accounts yet.
Presumably that reflects all of the new model development.

Perhaps an IPO will be an exit for the private equity investor, but also an opportunity for equity fund raising for the Company.
The present amount of debt in relation to profits worries me. Any comments about that?







Zod

35,295 posts

222 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

Zod said:
Profit forecasts rarely appear in IPO prospectuses because of liability concerns. Forecasts get to the market through the "independent" connected analysts' research.

Thank you Zod.

I spotted your use of quotation marks. wink

If there is to be a float, then perhaps an early one will work best for the sellers.

I meant to refer to the marked decrease in net assets. Have not seen the 2017 accounts yet.
Presumably that reflects all of the new model development.

Perhaps an IPO will be an exit for the private equity investor, but also an opportunity for equity fund raising for the Company.
The present amount of debt in relation to profits worries me. Any comments about that?
I think a float at this stage with all that debt and investment still required for DBX might be difficult, but perhaps they'll pull together an equity story based on new primary capital raised to pay off debt and fund the DBX to production. That would be a big raise though and wouldn't leave much of an opportunity for the PE investors to exit. Full PE exit on IPO almost never happens these days anyway, thanks to fiascos like Debenhams. IPO investors expect PE investors to retain a significant interest in the company's continuing success for some time post-IPO.

RL17

877 posts

57 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all
HBradley said:
Jon, unless I've mis-interpreted the quote, the fact that the offering is in NY would insulate it from Brexit? Or am I wrong?
Don't think which way they list is Brexit impacted - NY first and then London or London first and NY later. Or if an issue it's tiny and City related rather than tariffs and resourcing loads of components to get UK content from 45% or so to over 60% etc for origin rules.

Jon39

Original Poster:

8,036 posts

107 months

Tuesday 6th March 2018
quotequote all

HBradley said:
Jon, unless I've mis-interpreted the quote, the fact that the offering is in NY would insulate it from Brexit?
Or am I wrong?

When a UK company has a share listing in USA, it is just where the market place is, for shareholders to buy and sell their shares.
If the company is situated and domiciled in the UK, then all the normal UK rules, laws and conditions continue to apply. Next door might be a London quoted business, but HMRC still want their take from both firms

Whether in or out of the EU, various trade tariffs apply. Some of the present EU tariffs, on finished goods entering the EU, would presumably cease upon exit.

Where the Referendum vote did help AML for a while, was the currency rate. When the exchange rate (£ to $) went immediately down from about 1.45 to about 1.25 following the vote, the profit on each car sold overseas increased (assuming unaltered prices). Recently the exchange rate has been back up near 1.40 again, so that unexpected benefit did not last long. A relief to the UK importers though.






spyker138

922 posts

188 months

Thursday 22nd March 2018
quotequote all
Seems in the wealthy USA tri-state area they are having trouble shifting cars. I keep getting special lease deals on DB11 - for 2017 year cars which are now at least 12-18 months old... not sure that is a great indicator of the brand strength. My local dealer moaned at length at the prospect of having to sell the Vantage price increase (to be fair I asked him what he thought). Just another factoid.