Gone very quiet
Discussion
Currently I’m paying little attention to what the man on the street is doing and more so on the money institutes of the world, Because the two are not in correlation. Somthing is very wrong, this isnt going to blow over. The man on the street is behind the times . A bit of spring weather also helps a lot
Edited by Regy53 on Saturday 18th March 23:38
Regy53 said:
Currently I’m paying little attention to what the man on the street is doing and more so on the money institutes of the world, Because the two are not in correlation. Something is very wrong, this isnt going to blow over. The man on the street is behind the times . A bit of spring weather also helps a lot
Which then begs the question, why????Why is the average Joe so far behind? In our household we’ve been trimming the fat for over 12 months now, (since it became obvious Russia was going to invade Ukraine).
Now bearing in mind that I am far from being the brightest bulb in the box, if I could see a s
tstorm brewing on the horizon and prepared accordingly, why couldn’t most other folk?105.4 said:
Regy53 said:
Currently I’m paying little attention to what the man on the street is doing and more so on the money institutes of the world, Because the two are not in correlation. Something is very wrong, this isnt going to blow over. The man on the street is behind the times . A bit of spring weather also helps a lot
Which then begs the question, why????Why is the average Joe so far behind? In our household we’ve been trimming the fat for over 12 months now, (since it became obvious Russia was going to invade Ukraine).
Now bearing in mind that I am far from being the brightest bulb in the box, if I could see a s
tstorm brewing on the horizon and prepared accordingly, why couldn’t most other folk?Yet the money markets , the stock markets are all on rinse and repeat from history go by, and the indicators are fiercely representative of a 08 replica. Fuel is hit 65 dollars a barrel, money in banks is looking unsafe , gold is up, the problem is the fed has no tools to combat this, usually they can drop Interest rates to help spend but they can’t due to inflation which is falling but I don’t think the timings right, instead like the ecb they are going to raise likely another 25 basis points this week. You can’t go from near zero % to 5% none stop and not see things happen. It just takes a while for it to wash through the system , it’s starting to show up.
I mentioned the last 18 months we’re the best we ever had, the last 6 have been just incredible, we sell used construction machines. There have been a huge excess in the uk since mid ish last year, work started to slow, all the bounce back loan purchases have been up for sale due to no work, construction is a hugely slowing area, we are lucky to have exported globally but that is now fiercely slowing too. Our market is like a commodity in a way due to exchange rates etc . But as the crunch comes we’re seeing money move elsewhere, we’re seeing markets say we don’t need machines etc etc
Is the slowdown in construction a regional thing, or just certain sectors?
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
@regy53
Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
clockworks said:
Is the slowdown in construction a regional thing, or just certain sectors?
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
- Institutional funding, dev finance and senior debt put a general halt on green lighting new projects this time last year due to risks around construction inflation, so a lack of supply of new schemes
- Legacy projects that were funded now coming to an end/completed
- Public sector investment significantly down
- Contractors tied into pre inflation fixed price contracts, particularly medium sized ones that are/were exposed across several projects, have now gone pop or are very close to going pop
- Subcontractors left being owed lots of money as a result and are struggling to manage the losses
- All leading to investing in new plant being very low down in their list of priorities
That's a different issue to there not being sufficient labour in a specific location. Likewise it's also different to local small builders/house extensions etc.
In other news I (developer in the north east) legally completed on three house sales on Friday and sold four between 9.30 and 12 noon yesterday.
sagarich said:
Spoke to my Barber earlier and she's really struggling. I've seen them grow to 3 shops over the last 10 years, but in the last 12 months she has closed two and only just about covering overheads with the remaining premises.
Seems to be a mixture of biz rates, utilities and also customers reducing frequency to as much as 8 week gaps.
I know one. Electricity bill increased from £3k PA to £20k apparently. Not easy to soak up costs like that. Seems to be a mixture of biz rates, utilities and also customers reducing frequency to as much as 8 week gaps.
clockworks said:
Is the slowdown in construction a regional thing, or just certain sectors?
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
I think its a generic thing, especially due to intrest rises as below a lot of goverment spend has slowed, regional spend has slowed and the housing market is looking iffy. Although Ben5575 is showing it is still going ok, the amount of civils kit, and plant hire kit not working doing houses is pretty high, the numbers are way down on 2023 and not picking up (plant hire sector which hires to house knockers) My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
egor110 said:
@regy53
Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
Poland is probably our second / third biggest customer, UK, USA, Poland then elsewhere in europe. Not sure on the grants etc. In 2008 Poland was the only country in the EU not to have a recession, infact i think it went 28 years without one until covid. In 08 they were the biggest buyer of used kit for sure and there was aplenty. Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
ben5575 said:
In other news I (developer in the north east) legally completed on three house sales on Friday and sold four between 9.30 and 12 noon yesterday.
Absolutly good news to hear As i say it isnt making a great deal of sense but it just takes a while to wash through, it has been a intresting time with some quiet weeks in the last 18 months like oooo this is it and then were just back at it 100% busy, I presume the banking issues are going to raise eyebrows and banks may be forced to hold onto or get in some liquidity which may slow on some lending
Edited by Regy53 on Sunday 19th March 14:56
Regy53 said:
clockworks said:
Is the slowdown in construction a regional thing, or just certain sectors?
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
I think its a generic thing, especially due to intrest rises as below a lot of goverment spend has slowed, regional spend has slowed and the housing market is looking iffy. Although Ben5575 is showing it is still going ok, the amount of civils kit, and plant hire kit not working doing houses is pretty high, the numbers are way down on 2023 and not picking up (plant hire sector which hires to house knockers) My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
egor110 said:
@regy53
Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
Poland is probably our second / third biggest customer, UK, USA, Poland then elsewhere in europe. Not sure on the grants etc. In 2008 Poland was the only country in the EU not to have a recession, infact i think it went 28 years without one until covid. In 08 they were the biggest buyer of used kit for sure and there was aplenty. Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
ben5575 said:
In other news I (developer in the north east) legally completed on three house sales on Friday and sold four between 9.30 and 12 noon yesterday.
Absolutly good news to hear As i say it isnt making a great deal of sense but it just takes a while to wash through, it has been a intresting time with some quiet weeks in the last 18 months like oooo this is it and then were just back at it 100% busy, I presume the banking issues are going to raise eyebrows and banks may be forced to hold onto or get in some liquidity which may slow on some lending
Edited by Regy53 on Sunday 19th March 14:56
Seems like it's still boom time in Devon and Cornwall.
clockworks said:
Regy53 said:
clockworks said:
Is the slowdown in construction a regional thing, or just certain sectors?
My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
I think its a generic thing, especially due to intrest rises as below a lot of goverment spend has slowed, regional spend has slowed and the housing market is looking iffy. Although Ben5575 is showing it is still going ok, the amount of civils kit, and plant hire kit not working doing houses is pretty high, the numbers are way down on 2023 and not picking up (plant hire sector which hires to house knockers) My lodger is the accounts department supervisor at a fairly large groundworks and development company here in the far Southwest. Mostly residential, a bit of commercial. Over 200 subbies on site, £20m+ turnover. What's causing them problems is shortage of labour, not lack of jobs on the books.
egor110 said:
@regy53
Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
Poland is probably our second / third biggest customer, UK, USA, Poland then elsewhere in europe. Not sure on the grants etc. In 2008 Poland was the only country in the EU not to have a recession, infact i think it went 28 years without one until covid. In 08 they were the biggest buyer of used kit for sure and there was aplenty. Do you sell much over to Poland?
We had s written off tractor collected and the salvage guy was saying people here are paying mental prices for written off machinery and that in Poland they get government grants to buy used stuff and fix it rather than buy brand new ( possibly could just be ag machinery though)
ben5575 said:
In other news I (developer in the north east) legally completed on three house sales on Friday and sold four between 9.30 and 12 noon yesterday.
Absolutly good news to hear As i say it isnt making a great deal of sense but it just takes a while to wash through, it has been a intresting time with some quiet weeks in the last 18 months like oooo this is it and then were just back at it 100% busy, I presume the banking issues are going to raise eyebrows and banks may be forced to hold onto or get in some liquidity which may slow on some lending
Edited by Regy53 on Sunday 19th March 14:56
Seems like it's still boom time in Devon and Cornwall.
Development sites pur sae arent your usual affluent purchaser but when in a strong holiday let area? be interesting to hear on the target audience for these development areas in devon / cornwall?
Aventador 700 said:
Again, finding more affluent development areas doing well, the gap will widen further i think with whats going on, same as top end car sales, still strong.
Development sites pur sae arent your usual affluent purchaser but when in a strong holiday let area? be interesting to hear on the target audience for these development areas in devon / cornwall?
As we drive around the area, she points out developments that her employer is involved with. Pretty much all of them are your standard edge of town greenfield suburban estates, mix of identikit semis and "executive" detached on very small plots.Development sites pur sae arent your usual affluent purchaser but when in a strong holiday let area? be interesting to hear on the target audience for these development areas in devon / cornwall?
A sister company does small industrial estates, and "infill" residential plots, where they do the complete build, not just the groundworks for other developers.
The housing market in Cornwall is distorted by incomers buying up existing property in "pretty" locations, either for relocation or holiday homes. The locals then move outwards into the new-builds. Possibly quite different to most areas on the country?
House prices are high, compared to average local incomes. I used to live in Milton Keynes, and house prices here are similar, while wages in general are a lot lower.
clockworks said:
Aventador 700 said:
Again, finding more affluent development areas doing well, the gap will widen further i think with whats going on, same as top end car sales, still strong.
Development sites pur sae arent your usual affluent purchaser but when in a strong holiday let area? be interesting to hear on the target audience for these development areas in devon / cornwall?
As we drive around the area, she points out developments that her employer is involved with. Pretty much all of them are your standard edge of town greenfield suburban estates, mix of identikit semis and "executive" detached on very small plots.Development sites pur sae arent your usual affluent purchaser but when in a strong holiday let area? be interesting to hear on the target audience for these development areas in devon / cornwall?
A sister company does small industrial estates, and "infill" residential plots, where they do the complete build, not just the groundworks for other developers.
The housing market in Cornwall is distorted by incomers buying up existing property in "pretty" locations, either for relocation or holiday homes. The locals then move outwards into the new-builds. Possibly quite different to most areas on the country?
House prices are high, compared to average local incomes. I used to live in Milton Keynes, and house prices here are similar, while wages in general are a lot lower.
I can only assume foreign investors are buying up the DFLs properties in London, because I can't remember the last time I heard about anyone moving from one of the Kent towns up to London.
jammy-git said:
I think we have the same happening here in Kent. DFLs come in and buy the more expensive spots in the seaside towns or beautiful countryside villages. Then those local people and families move into the new identi-kit estates being built on greenfield sites.
I can only assume foreign investors are buying up the DFLs properties in London, because I can't remember the last time I heard about anyone moving from one of the Kent towns up to London.
One of my friends lives in Kent and last year he was being outbid on 3 bed terraced houses in average/ slightly below average areas, one example was a house was advertised for £245k, my mate put a bid in for £265k. Some investor from London buys the property for close to £300k CASH. I can only assume foreign investors are buying up the DFLs properties in London, because I can't remember the last time I heard about anyone moving from one of the Kent towns up to London.
The same thing happened to him 4 times, think he gave up in the end.
MrManual said:
One of my friends lives in Kent and last year he was being outbid on 3 bed terraced houses in average/ slightly below average areas, one example was a house was advertised for £245k, my mate put a bid in for £265k. Some investor from London buys the property for close to £300k CASH.
The same thing happened to him 4 times, think he gave up in the end.
Same happened to us a few times. One place - a tip - we bid over ask for 455 (I think) it sold for 565 (I think) ask was maybe 425 (I think). Just mental. The same thing happened to him 4 times, think he gave up in the end.
We overbid by 5k on the place we ended up buying and got it because we were no chain. There were other bids higher than ours but our seller wanted a fast transaction - which it wasn't as her tenants wouldn't leave and had to be evicted!!
I have just offered £700k no chain or mortgage agaisnt a £760k house that has been on the market a few months.
These house sales are weird everywhere which is why i belive "nothing is making sense" some are flat out and some are genuinly dead.
Construction is one of the first hit in a down turn, the hire firms are feeling it and the auctions are absolutly full, its a reasonable sign but maybe a kneejerk. I doubt it though i think this is just servre inrest rate rises slowly comming home. Intresting "weird" times. Check out the banking issues
These house sales are weird everywhere which is why i belive "nothing is making sense" some are flat out and some are genuinly dead.
Construction is one of the first hit in a down turn, the hire firms are feeling it and the auctions are absolutly full, its a reasonable sign but maybe a kneejerk. I doubt it though i think this is just servre inrest rate rises slowly comming home. Intresting "weird" times. Check out the banking issues
I saw this on Reddit yesterday - sub-prime car loan delinquencies in the US are soaring: https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/low-income-househ...
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