Porsche slashes 2025 forecast, slows EV expansion
Want to know how much Porsche is worried about US tariffs, slowdown in China and battery production? Quite a lot
PH caught up with Aston’s new(ish) CEO, Adrian Hallmark, recently and attempted to chew through some of the issues that make running a major carmaker in 2025 seem about as predictable as a clown in a minefield. Even allowing for his default optimism, the former boss of Bentley was remarkably chipper: he has already discussed his short-term strategy at length, and Aston’s leisurely uptake of battery technology - partly slowed on his instructions - looks increasingly prescient.
Conditions in the US could obviously be more favourable, although the willingness of the UK government to listen to Gaydon’s input has been predictably well received; not least in its acceptance that manufacturers of Aston’s comparatively small size should be permitted to continue making and selling high-powered petrol engines for another decade. Quite what its mid-term powertrain strategy will look like remains under wraps till later in the year. And though Aston has numerous hurdles still to negotiate, Hallmark continues to give off the inimitable confidence of a man with a plan - one supported by his chairman.
At any rate, it’s hard to imagine him willingly trading places with Oliver Blume, the current CEO of Porsche. Ahead of revealing its first quarter results, the firm’s Executive Board has chosen to ‘adjust’ its forecast for 2025 in the face of numerous challenges, among them ‘geopolitical conditions’ familiar to anyone who has opened a newspaper recently. How much of an adjustment? Well, it expects sales revenue to potentially fall by as much as 3 billion euros, and its return on sales - previously forecast between 10 and 12 per cent - to fall to between 6.5 and 8.5 per cent. Automotive net cash flow margin, once expected to be between 7 and 9 per cent, might drop as low as 4 per cent.
“As we expected, the first quarter has been weaker,” said Dr Jochen Breckner, CFO. “In addition, the macroeconomic situation will remain challenging. We can't completely escape this, but we are doing everything within our power to counteract it.” Porsche reported that around 1.3 billion euros in additional expenditure - described as ‘’short-term burdens - had been required to adapt the product portfolio and make organisational adjustments aimed at increasing the firm’s resilience.
In the first three months of 2025, Porsche delivered 71,470 cars, compared with 77,640 in 2024. The share of electrified vehicles has risen to 39 per cent (including plug-in hybrids) mostly driven by the new Macan. Nevertheless, Porsche blamed the ‘slower ramp-up of electromobility’ for its decision not to expand the production of high-performance batteries by its Cellforce subsidiary. The wider downturn in China, which has led to a collapse in the demand for luxury EVs, looms over many of Porsche’s forecasts; its deliveries there fell 42 per cent in Q1. Unsurprisingly, nothing that happened in the first part of this year has encouraged much optimism for the immediate future.
Quite the opposite. Porsche suggests that while the impacts of US import tariffs have (or will) negatively impacted April and May - effects it has taken into account when adjusting its forecast - it has not attempted to predict further repercussions of the policy. Why not? Because ‘currently it is not yet possible to make a reliable assessment of the effects for the financial year’. Just what carmakers love: uncertainty. There ought to be no shortage of that in 2025. Or of additional announcements not unlike this one.
The Green gravy train is over.
Another lesson in why governments should never mandate a market. They may as well ban Y fronts from sale to avoid falling male fertility rates.
The Green gravy train is over.
Another lesson in why governments should never mandate a market. They may as well ban Y fronts from sale to avoid falling male fertility rates.
The Green gravy train is over.
Another lesson in why governments should never mandate a market. They may as well ban Y fronts from sale to avoid falling male fertility rates.
Year Operating Profit from China (€ billion)
2014 5.2
2015 5.2
2016 5.0
2017 4.7
2018 4.6
2019 4.4
2020 3.8
2021 3.5
2022 2.6
2023 1.7
Now, what is the latest data for overall BEV sales in China?
BEV Sales Overview
In 2024, China achieved approximately 7.05 million BEV sales, marking a 15.1% year-over-year increase and accounting for 26% of the total passenger vehicle market. Retail sales of BEVs reached 6.32 million units, up 22.8% from the previous year, contributing 58% of all new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales.
Market Trends and Export Dynamics
China's total NEV sales, encompassing BEVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles, reached 12.87 million units in 2024, reflecting a 35.5% increase from 2023.
Leading Models
among the top-selling BEVs in China for 2024 were the Tesla Model 3, with 176,793 registrations, and the BYD Dolphin, with 160,594 deliveries.
In a nutshell, ICE in China is facing a difficult challenge. VAG as a whole are staring down the barrel of a complete wipeout. Some makes / models may survive, possibly being sold off as MG were. But the actual data doesnt lie.
And now I'm just waiting for some muppet to come along and call me Xi for simply reporting what happened. Go for it.
Riiiiiight.
Riiiiiight.
I know the MG Cyberster is a completely different sports car offering, but based on how many 25 plate MG hatchbacks I see, I’d have thought I would have seen at least a couple of Cybersters on the roads by now.
China doesn't have a love affair with the ICE, they care very little for what powers their cars.
This is not about the ICE vs EV tribalism that will become very apparent as this thread progresses.
The world has moved on, simply 'going back to engines' is just as likely to fail as any other strategy.
Commercial success is about right-sizing the business and adapting.
That won't stop a few old men shouting about soul, the WEF and past glories.
China doesn't have a love affair with the ICE, they care very little for what powers their cars.
This is not about the ICE vs EV tribalism that will become very apparent as this thread progresses.
The world has moved on, simply 'going back to engines' is just as likely to fail as any other strategy.
Commercial success is about right-sizing the business and adapting.
That won't stop a few old men shouting about soul, the WEF and past glories.
The bulk of passenger transport will have electric motors in the future, its started, dont think anyone will go back wholesale to piston engines, they wont dissapear for a long, long time but there will be a time, suspect I will be long dead where hearing one will be like hearing the Douglas Dakota fly over the other day.
What we need to try and do is separate our emotions, preferences and affinitites from the bigger picture.
tshow.Year Operating Profit from China (€ billion)
2014 5.2
2015 5.2
2016 5.0
2017 4.7
2018 4.6
2019 4.4
2020 3.8
2021 3.5
2022 2.6
2023 1.7
Now, what is the latest data for overall BEV sales in China?
BEV Sales Overview
In 2024, China achieved approximately 7.05 million BEV sales, marking a 15.1% year-over-year increase and accounting for 26% of the total passenger vehicle market. Retail sales of BEVs reached 6.32 million units, up 22.8% from the previous year, contributing 58% of all new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales. ?
Market Trends and Export Dynamics
China's total NEV sales, encompassing BEVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles, reached 12.87 million units in 2024, reflecting a 35.5% increase from 2023.
Leading Models
among the top-selling BEVs in China for 2024 were the Tesla Model 3, with 176,793 registrations, and the BYD Dolphin, with 160,594 deliveries. ?
In a nutshell, ICE in China is facing a difficult challenge. VAG as a whole are staring down the barrel of a complete wipeout. Some makes / models may survive, possibly being sold off as MG were. But the actual data doesnt lie.
And now I'm just waiting for some muppet to come along and call me Xi for simply reporting what happened. Go for it.
China doesn't have a love affair with the ICE, they care very little for what powers their cars.
This is not about the ICE vs EV tribalism that will become very apparent as this thread progresses.
The world has moved on, simply 'going back to engines' is just as likely to fail as any other strategy.
Commercial success is about right-sizing the business and adapting.
That won't stop a few old men shouting about soul, the WEF and past glories.
The bulk of passenger transport will have electric motors in the future, its started, dont think anyone will go back wholesale to piston engines, they wont dissapear for a long, long time but there will be a time, suspect I will be long dead where hearing one will be like hearing the Douglas Dakota fly over the other day.
What we need to try and do is separate our emotions, preferences and affinitites from the bigger picture.
EV is the growth market so any slowdown will automatically mean a slowing of that expansion.
No mention of what it's going to do to diesels of course.
Why are China way ahead of their mandate, is it because nobody wants EVs?
Clearly not.
What our mandate is effectively doing is dragging us into to the present and waking us up to the fact that the eventual electrification of all new cars is inevitable.
Simply because it's the least complex, least wasteful (for both matter and energy) and least (globally) impacting way to get from A to B.
That is a fact that will remain with us for the foreseeable future, regardless of politics and emotions.
Cue pictures of lithium mines...
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