Are there any city traders on here?

Are there any city traders on here?

Author
Discussion

Charlie360

367 posts

213 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2010
quotequote all
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/m...

Although this long range forecast shows the centre of the low outside the UK at the moment, it's showing isobars across the uk as low as 980....

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Thursday 4th November 2010
quotequote all
Thanks for the link, interesting...

This is today's UK Met Office forecast for 7 November 2010 (as far they go, from what I can see on their website):



If my month ahead forecast for 12 November 2010 is to hold good, the centre of the low pressure should be on or close the UK!

Something like this:


so to come good, the centre of the low must be much closer to the UK. We shall see!

Edited by Mystic on Thursday 11th November 23:03

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Thursday 4th November 2010
quotequote all
Hey Charlie, went back onto the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts website (your source) and requested their latest forecast for 12 November 2010 and they gave this:



that's better!

... however, they could have got that forecast ages ago, if they had read this thread! wink


....................................................................................................................................................

Update: just for completeness, this was their effort just two days ago of what the pressure chart would look like for 12 November 2010 (10 days ahead):



... very different!

Edited by Mystic on Thursday 4th November 15:03

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

197 months

Thursday 4th November 2010
quotequote all
Are you born with a turtle's head, or can you train to have one

http://www.cityam.com/markets-and-investments/the-...

DonkeyApple

37,320 posts

124 months

Thursday 4th November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Are you born with a turtle's head, or can you train to have one

http://www.cityam.com/markets-and-investments/the-...
Everyone is a Turtle Trader. It's what happens when a trade goes bad and wipes out your account and is the stage just before 'Touching Cloth'. biggrin

ShadownINja

70,589 posts

237 months

Thursday 4th November 2010
quotequote all
laugh

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
Just back from Bologna, the Murcielago replacement is just stunning! 0-60mph in under 3 secs! Very pretty car imo.

Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.

Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:



... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know? smile

ant1973

1,664 posts

160 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
You just beat me to posting something very similar. Well done!

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

197 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
Mystic said:
Just back from Bologna, the Murcielago replacement is just stunning! 0-60mph in under 3 secs! Very pretty car imo.

Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.

Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:



... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know? smile
Remind me, did you predit this?

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Remind me, did you predit this?
... on 12 October 2010 - one month ahead - see post of that day above.

Lets see if it comes good! Two days to go!

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

197 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
Mystic said:
NoelWatson said:
Remind me, did you predit this?
... on 12 October 2010 - one month ahead - see post of that day above.

Lets see if it comes good! Two days to go!
Will that give us similar conditions to the flood of 1953?

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
ant1973 said:
You just beat me to posting something very similar. Well done!
Thanks Ant, but lets, as I say, see if it comes good!

Its been a nightmare trying to decifer things and work out the DNA for an individual day. In the end, I threw all the books away and just thought hard, reflected and allowed ideas to ferment for about for 4 months! I "lost" the summer, but hopefully it would be worth it.

Sometimes, if you need to take things to the next level, you just need to go alone and just forget what anyone else has done or said. Believe hard that you can do it and be hard on yourself that you must not give up and above all that you will get there, its just a matter of time. For me the key is to always ask the right questions when things are not clear - write the questions down and by some miracle, the next day or next week, the answer comes!

In relation to making forecasts, part of you is so sure you are right and other another part of you is so sceptical and just wants the validation through accurate (forward) forecasts. When the forecast comes good, part of you is calm and says "I told you so, whats the big deal; you've seen the cycle work in the past for the last 100+ years; WTF did you expect?" and the other part is jumping up and down with excitement, as if it is totally unexpected - crazy!

If the forecast comes good, I shall post more weather predictions as "one swallow does not make a summer"

jon-

15,916 posts

171 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
You got to play with the Murcielago replacement? That's more impressive than you're Mystic Meg predictions.

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Will that give us similar conditions to the flood of 1953?
... as to the effect of the low pressure upon the weather. I can't say, as I don't have the newspaper reports for the days this (ie: 12 Nov 2010 chart) occured before.

To be fair, if you give an experienced meteorologist the pressure chart, they should, hopefully, be able to say the effect

The difficult part is identifying what the pressure will be way ahead in time; as that requires an understanding of how nature works. My 12 Novemeber 2010 forecast could have been made with data available circa 100 years ago (in fact much earlier, if good data was to hand).

Re the floods of 1953 (30 Jan-1 Feb), I shall try and look at the DNA for that period of time and see when it will repeat if in the near future. It would be interesting to know...

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
jon- said:
You got to play with the Murcielago replacement?
Sadly no. It's in a secret part of the factory and not allowed out! We all got a chance to have a good look round and sit inside. For me, in looks is more of a "female"; the Murci was a "bloke"! Its got a much better looking backside than the Murci (lovely view for those in Ferraris!!!)

jon- said:
That's more impressive than you're Mystic Meg predictions.
... couldn't agree more! But hey, one of those predictions trading the Dow for a few hours one day next year could pay for that baby! wink

ant1973

1,664 posts

160 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
Mystic said:
ant1973 said:
You just beat me to posting something very similar. Well done!
Thanks Ant, but lets, as I say, see if it comes good!

Its been a nightmare trying to decifer things and work out the DNA for an individual day. In the end, I threw all the books away and just thought hard, reflected and allowed ideas to ferment for about for 4 months! I "lost" the summer, but hopefully it would be worth it.

Sometimes, if you need to take things to the next level, you just need to go alone and just forget what anyone else has done or said. Believe hard that you can do it and be hard on yourself that you must not give up and above all that you will get there, its just a matter of time. For me the key is to always ask the right questions when things are not clear - write the questions down and by some miracle, the next day or next week, the answer comes!

In relation to making forecasts, part of you is so sure you are right and other another part of you is so sceptical and just wants the validation through accurate (forward) forecasts. When the forecast comes good, part of you is calm and says "I told you so, whats the big deal; you've seen the cycle work in the past for the last 100+ years; WTF did you expect?" and the other part is jumping up and down with excitement, as if it is totally unexpected - crazy!

If the forecast comes good, I shall post more weather predictions as "one swallow does not make a summer"
In fairness, it is looking pretty good. The problem is that the margins for error are small. I have been off and on trying to apply the DNA to the markets but data pre 1900 is hard to come by. Have some time off coming up soon so that should give me time to think. I've been trying to work out a methodology for adjusting stock prices a la the weather but it is slow going because my data sample is too small.

Somewhatfoolish

3,865 posts

141 months

Wednesday 10th November 2010
quotequote all
  • burp*
p.s. mystic many of the markets I've been trading recently are starting to get controlled by one evil algorithm... I've also worked out a way of manipulating it using the order book. I can make basically any pretty cycle you like during a quiet period... how did you predict this in advance?

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Thursday 11th November 2010
quotequote all
Somewhatfoolish said:
*burp*

p.s. mystic many of the markets I've been trading recently are starting to get controlled by one evil algorithm... I've also worked out a way of manipulating it using the order book. I can make basically any pretty cycle you like during a quiet period...
... glad to hear you are having fun. Can you post up some of your pretty cycles? smile

Somewhatfoolish said:
... how did you predict this in advance?
... by knowing the cycles in nature that repeat and repeat, time after time

... will be doing some more posts of other extreme weather events

Mystic

738 posts

158 months

Thursday 11th November 2010
quotequote all
ant1973 said:
In fairness, it is looking pretty good. The problem is that the margins for error are small.
Todays forecast from the Met Office for 00hrs 12 November 2010 is:

If that chart holds as actual, stepping back, the implications of this forecast coming good, I feel, will be immense. Proving the DNA system works, needs time to reflect. May post more on this point if forecast comes good.

ant1973 said:
I have been off and on trying to apply the DNA to the markets but data pre 1900 is hard to come by. Have some time off coming up soon so that should give me time to think. I've been trying to work out a methodology for adjusting stock prices a la the weather but it is slow going because my data sample is too small.
... yes, taking time off is key. Try to maintain a higher level of being during the process.

... I can see at some point next year, I will turn to the Dow. Accurate past prices will be key as you say.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

197 months

Thursday 11th November 2010
quotequote all
Mystic said:
ant1973 said:
In fairness, it is looking pretty good. The problem is that the margins for error are small.
Todays forecast from the Met Office for 00hrs 12 November 2010 is:

If that chart holds as actual, stepping back, the implications of this forecast coming good, I feel, will be immense. Proving the DNA system works, needs time to reflect. May post more on this point if forecast comes good.

ant1973 said:
I have been off and on trying to apply the DNA to the markets but data pre 1900 is hard to come by. Have some time off coming up soon so that should give me time to think. I've been trying to work out a methodology for adjusting stock prices a la the weather but it is slow going because my data sample is too small.
... yes, taking time off is key. Try to maintain a higher level of being during the process.

... I can see at some point next year, I will turn to the Dow. Accurate past prices will be key as you say.
I have my pocket barometer in London ready for tomorrow.