Classic Car Prices - Waiting For The Crash
Discussion
Good evening all
Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past year and subject to many a late night debate.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down forn poor grammar, punctuation etc.
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, a DB5, Alfa SZ to name a few.
Like many of you I'm sure, these were bought and sold at market price a long time ago and whenever I meet up with my friends they always say "bet you wish you still had that ...." "have you seen the prices of...". (I remember going to a local garage in Stoke Poges that had a Bugatti EB110 in stock for over a year for £165000 and at the same time you could buy a concourse F40 for £200-250k. Now both 7 figures.... so what are people's thoughts.... as I have seen this before in my time, mega highs and mega lows....)
I have seen these prices go up, go very up, go very down and it makes me wonder why... is it because of very poor interest rates so the cash rich see classsic cars as a safe bet with potential return? I have seen this buoyancy before and seen it crash but some people I think are deluded by "investing" in some cars that seem to have gone up. Very low run iconic cars (Countach, F cars etc), mega rare and very special cars I'm sure will continue to appreciate but see below examples of people I know who have recently purchased (last 12 months):
2003 Carrera 4S. In fairness, very nice example and 25000 miles but... £32500
2004 M3 CSL, pretty average well used example, far from mint - £40000
Evo 9 FQ360 MR £30000
2005 360 Spider. Manual car, red with cream, 12000 miles... as good as it gets but £115000
Would any of you take a punt with these as "investments"... and by that I mean these people have bought these to garage, cherish, rarely use on the basis they will appreciate. My opinion is that within the next 5 years, the ever rising classic car market will crash and these so called potential classics will be back to what they were 5 years ago..
Two examples of my own:
I sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade.... so why has this gone up? Mass produced average car, looks old, sh** to drive, doesn't really perform!
1999 Skyline R34 GTR V Spec in midnight purple imported in 2000 from Japan @ 1500KM. Only car I have ever kept for this long. Sold is 2015 as a perfect, original, unmodfied genuine 12000 mile example. At the time there were GTR's about from £20k. A nice one was late 20s. A special one was 30k. Not really wanting to sell it, I tested the market at £37500 for possibly the finest one in existence. It sold straight away for more or less asking price. I was absolutely delighted. Looking now on the market, one could ask double that.... and as much as I regret selling it and would love to buy it back, I wouldn't pay more than I sold it for it on a) principal and b) I can see it back at £30k in the next few years.
Rambling on but keen to hear people's thoughts on whether these 10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth....
Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past year and subject to many a late night debate.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down forn poor grammar, punctuation etc.
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, a DB5, Alfa SZ to name a few.
Like many of you I'm sure, these were bought and sold at market price a long time ago and whenever I meet up with my friends they always say "bet you wish you still had that ...." "have you seen the prices of...". (I remember going to a local garage in Stoke Poges that had a Bugatti EB110 in stock for over a year for £165000 and at the same time you could buy a concourse F40 for £200-250k. Now both 7 figures.... so what are people's thoughts.... as I have seen this before in my time, mega highs and mega lows....)
I have seen these prices go up, go very up, go very down and it makes me wonder why... is it because of very poor interest rates so the cash rich see classsic cars as a safe bet with potential return? I have seen this buoyancy before and seen it crash but some people I think are deluded by "investing" in some cars that seem to have gone up. Very low run iconic cars (Countach, F cars etc), mega rare and very special cars I'm sure will continue to appreciate but see below examples of people I know who have recently purchased (last 12 months):
2003 Carrera 4S. In fairness, very nice example and 25000 miles but... £32500
2004 M3 CSL, pretty average well used example, far from mint - £40000
Evo 9 FQ360 MR £30000
2005 360 Spider. Manual car, red with cream, 12000 miles... as good as it gets but £115000
Would any of you take a punt with these as "investments"... and by that I mean these people have bought these to garage, cherish, rarely use on the basis they will appreciate. My opinion is that within the next 5 years, the ever rising classic car market will crash and these so called potential classics will be back to what they were 5 years ago..
Two examples of my own:
I sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade.... so why has this gone up? Mass produced average car, looks old, sh** to drive, doesn't really perform!
1999 Skyline R34 GTR V Spec in midnight purple imported in 2000 from Japan @ 1500KM. Only car I have ever kept for this long. Sold is 2015 as a perfect, original, unmodfied genuine 12000 mile example. At the time there were GTR's about from £20k. A nice one was late 20s. A special one was 30k. Not really wanting to sell it, I tested the market at £37500 for possibly the finest one in existence. It sold straight away for more or less asking price. I was absolutely delighted. Looking now on the market, one could ask double that.... and as much as I regret selling it and would love to buy it back, I wouldn't pay more than I sold it for it on a) principal and b) I can see it back at £30k in the next few years.
Rambling on but keen to hear people's thoughts on whether these 10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth....
Edited by 98JA on Saturday 23 September 02:05
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