How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?

[TheDeuce]

Just pondering...

So often the take up of EV is discussed in linear terms - assuming that the rate of adoption will continue at a vaguely similar rate to today until at some point around 2050 pretty much all daily drivers cars are EV. But could it start to feel that 'everyone' now has an EV quite a bit sooner than that?

So far no country has banned new ICE sales, we will be amongst the first (probably) to do so. I wonder how quickly attitudes to EV will change after just a couple of years of punters only ever hearing about EV's whenever their family/friends announce a new car, or the choice of new cars they're looking at? We'll be living in a country where every single person each of us knows that happens to buy/lease/SS a new car will only ever end up with an EV - that's going to feel like a rapid state change for those that have largely simply ignored thinking about EV's up until that point.

Assuming most people get on well with their new EV (most folk actually do after a short period of adjustment), that's going to be a lot of positive feedback for those still pondering whether to buy one, even if only second hand.

It will quickly become a world where the only chatter relating to cars (for none enthusiasts at least, IE typical punters) is going to be about EV's. They might not talk about it being an EV, but whatever new cars are discussed, will all by default be EV's.

We will see this starting to swing ahead of the actual ICE ban (2030) because some years before that date it's likely that ICE (all hybrid at that point) ranges and availability in the UK will be far less than today. For example, Ford may still sell a couple of ICE models in the UK, but abyne looking for a city car or SUV might quickly find that the only Ford choices for them are all EV's, that sort of limited choice for certain model types is bound to happen across many manufacturers ranges ahead of the actual ban.

So, things may start to change sooner rather than later, including attitudes and buyer confidence/knowledge.

Or am I wrong about it all?

[TheDeuce]

Johnson897210 said:

Yes everyone will set their ICE cars on fire and buy shiny new EVs as soon as they see someone on their street has one. Am I getting this right?

Talking about attitudes/interest towards EV shifting when ICE is no longer available as a new car... Burning old ICE cars is doable, but wouldn't have any effect regarding the subject of this thread.

Probably best just to keep the existing ICE cars for those that aren't in the market for a new car, wouldn't you think? Seems really stupid (sorry, couldn't find a better word) to suggest burning them, for any reason.

[TheDeuce]

dreamcracker said:

New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.

ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.

I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.

I think it's very likely there will be an increase in private buyers going for an EV when they can no longer buy a petrol car. Obviously they could buy a used petrol car, but we have over 3 million millionaires in this country, they like the new car on the drive and are very unlikely to change that habit just because they can't buy a petrol one anymore. Beyond millionaires we have about another 15m that are in an income bracket that easily affords a new car, and many do.

I suspect a lot of people are holding off now as they fear uncertainty, but that uncertainty will evaporate as it becomes clear that ICE really is going and EV's really do work, and have several interesting benefits.

I'm not sure if the final wave of pre-ban ICE cars will increase in price though. I can see why from a manufacturing perspective they arguably should... But rightly or wrongly I expect that potential buyers will worry they're a poor Investment which dents their perceived value. There are so many other factors too, that I don't feel able to make a credible prediction. All I'm sure about is that the range of ICE available as new will continue to decrease, probably quite significantly over the coming years, certainly well ahead of the ban itself.

[TheDeuce]

WelshRich said:

Perhaps Norway is an example of what it might look like as the deadline approaches?

Almost 90% of all new car sales last year were EV’s and it’s been over 50% for a while but it takes time to filter through, over 70% of cars on the road are still ICE

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...

Norway is as close as we get to seeing the effects of an ICE ban. They're not banned, but EV's over there are so much cheaper in every way that only a die hard ICE lover with no money worries would still buy one. So in effect, they are 'sort of' banned for most punters.

As you say, the share of new car sales to EV has indeed skyrocketed, as it would anywhere where ICE is banned or effectively taken out of reach. But I'm more interested in the attitude shift that has taken place in Norway. They love EV's now! The infrastructure has absolutely kept pace with adoption, it all works beautifully and it's hard to imagine that most people in Norway confronted with buying their first EV is nervous, because they must already have endless friends and family members that have one clearly get on with their car just fine.

Norway is similar to the UK in one crucial way, the potential to produce excessive amounts of renewable energy - which is best used for charging batteries, as that's a use that can be executed whenever power generation is at it's highest and the excess is available. It's not all rosy though, I think the average British chap is perhaps not quite so open minded and environmentally inclined as over in Norway... But longer term I think that even in stubborn Britain, once something is proven to work and is widely enough adopted, the masses tend to relax and accept it. There's definitely a tipping point to general acceptance and that tipping point is going to be different country by country.

[TheDeuce]

A500leroy said:

TheDeuce said:

dreamcracker said:

New EV's will remain as now for company car drivers.

ICE car values will increase in value, due to demand, and shortage of quality used cars after new production is cut.

I don't expect to see a significant large increase in private buyers wanting an EV.

I think it's very likely there will be an increase in private buyers going for an EV when they can no longer buy a petrol car. Obviously they could buy a used petrol car, but we have over 3 million millionaires in this country, they like the new car on the drive and are very unlikely to change that habit just because they can't buy a petrol one anymore. Beyond millionaires we have about another 15m that are in an income bracket that easily affords a new car, and many do.

I suspect a lot of people are holding off now as they fear uncertainty, but that uncertainty will evaporate as it becomes clear that ICE really is going and EV's really do work, and have several interesting benefits.

I'm not sure if the final wave of pre-ban ICE cars will increase in price though. I can see why from a manufacturing perspective they arguably should... But rightly or wrongly I expect that potential buyers will worry they're a poor Investment which dents their perceived value. There are so many other factors too, that I don't feel able to make a credible prediction. All I'm sure about is that the range of ICE available as new will continue to decrease, probably quite significantly over the coming years, certainly well ahead of the ban itself.

Not a chance, all those people in high rise flats paying the equivalent of 12mpg to use a public charger?
Untill that's sorted not gonna happen.

Did you mean to reply to me? I didn't say that would happen

[TheDeuce]

DMZ said:

I’m sure car manufacturers would love to understand/predict the future buying behaviour of customers as they decide where to stick billions in R&D. It can’t be easy.

I have no idea tbh. I guess this is a market driven by carrot and stick mostly so depends on that. Unless EVs somehow become universally loved based on the product alone.

For those that are used to EV, very often they do come to prefer EV and would not like to swap back to ICE. Certainly not for the daily car.

I can see the appeal of having a special ICE in addition to the EV, but that has nothing to do with the abilities or useability of the EV, which would always be my choice for longer trips and so on. My only interest in going back to ICE would be as a second car, for fun and as a potential investment.

[TheDeuce]

kambites said:

KobayashiMaru86 said:

I'm still have too much fun driving old cars about and hopefully still will be well beyond 2035. I suspect the Govt will make it so you have to give them up, be it taxation or public shaming to own one. Could look at EV one day for commuting but I'm in no rush to.

There's really no historical precedence for this. Once the sale of new ICE vehicles has been banned for a few years, the government will quickly lose interest in them because they'll become an irrelevance.

Not only that, but old cars are valued as part of the heritage of motoring - which is why the government gives them classic car status and removes certain costs, because they're important and should be preserved.

There's no reason at all to think that the government will tax you out of a special ICE car if you wish to keep one indefinitely. At some point basic economics of scale will effect the pump price of fuel in the future, but that's not government doing and is of little relevance to someone running just 1-2k miles a year in a cherished car.

People need to stop seeing this as a war against ICE, it isn't. Its just support for progress to the next phase of personal transport. Industry has to have that support to make the change.

[TheDeuce]

MrSmith901 said:

My company is fully remote, so no company car allowance.

Also means no commute.

My car has a V8 in it, it's a weekend toy. Would I have an EV as a weekend toy? No chance. Never.

Our family car is a petrol rav 4. As it stands we wouldn't replace that with an EV as we do long trips to family etc. The infrastructure is awful and I don't want to be hunting around for a charger and then waiting ages for it to charge. Until that's sorted I will continue with petrol for a to b motoring.

I also refuse to pay monthly for cars. Buy it outright or not at all.

For me the end of ice availability will probably mean I just buy used ICE cars until the above mentioned problems are fixed. And for the hobby car, that will always be petrol.

That all makes sense, other than the problems don't exist.

You can buy a used EV with great range today and you won't be hunting around for chargers. You won't be able get even halfway through the range of the EV without passing several high speed chargers.

The infrastructure was awful, it's now so simple as to not even think about pre planning a long journey. Just get in and go.

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

MrSmith901 said:

My company is fully remote, so no company car allowance.

Also means no commute.

My car has a V8 in it, it's a weekend toy. Would I have an EV as a weekend toy? No chance. Never.

Our family car is a petrol rav 4. As it stands we wouldn't replace that with an EV as we do long trips to family etc. The infrastructure is awful and I don't want to be hunting around for a charger and then waiting ages for it to charge. Until that's sorted I will continue with petrol for a to b motoring.

I also refuse to pay monthly for cars. Buy it outright or not at all.

For me the end of ice availability will probably mean I just buy used ICE cars until the above mentioned problems are fixed. And for the hobby car, that will always be petrol.

Sensible, except your fears are unfounded IME, even at this moment.
By all means, keep running whatever you want. But if you want to do it while acting sensibly, try it out for yourself or ask people who do rather than rehashing Daily Sun talking points.

It is funny how many people seem to have fully formed their opinion on EV (and all sorts of other things in life), based on how they're portrayed in the media. They obviously can't work out that the media are interested in selling them drama, not making them wise...

The other day I returned to my car at the supermarket and the guy in the car parked next to me started asking me what it was like - which was initially quite nice as it used to happen all the time when I first started driving an EV, but very rarely now, I assume because most people have at least one EV driving friend at this point who they can ask.

Anyway... this guy asked all the typical questions about what the range is like, how long to charge etc, but he seemed determined to argue with me each time I answered him I swear in the end he was getting quite irritated as I was explaining we were taking the car down to Cornwall later this year, I think he thought I was taking the piss in some complex and ironic way!! It was as if he knew with unwavering certainty that such a thing was simply not viable and considered it extremely rude of me to treat him like an idiot by claiming otherwise

Well he can piss right off. We are taking the car to Cornwall in October for my wife's 40th, we will be spending a week there, we will be driving around all over the place and we won't be pre-planning where to charge or spending hours of our lives waiting for the car to charge. What we will do is set off as we would in any other car, and at some point after 2-3 hours driving at normal speeds it will become lunchtime, so we will stop for lunch - probably 15-20 minutes of charge, then we'll get back in the car and then we will arrive at our rental house a couple of hours later. It's just not that complicated!

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

People see it as some sort of "gotcha" when I tell them my 100kWh car would take almost 7h to fully charge when parked at home.
Anyway, I'm fine with people preferring an ICE, it's the false premises or pretenses (eg "we do regular longer trips so it won't work for us") that I take offense at.

I know, but some people are just a bit simplistic - critical thinking has become quite unfashionable, far easier to just adopt the opinion drip fed to you by the media. It doesn't matter if it's true.

But as per the title of this thread, once ICE eventually starts to become far less common and not available as a new car, at some point the number of people that are happily driving EV's will become a more pervasive source of information than the media for the dumb dumbs to base their opinions on. It's all very well deciding EV's can't do long trips 'because the newspapers all say it', but when they have half a dozen friends that are frequently making long trips without any problems, that opinion will change.

It still won't be an opinion they arrived at independently, they still won't be capable of critical thought, but at least they will no longer be wrong

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

Ankh87 said:

How would they police this though? Some vehicles it is hard to tell what is an EV and what isn't. So unless the police are going to somehow search the reg while sat on the side of the road or all vehicles get photographed "speeding", then checked. It would be near impossible to do this and it's not practical, let alone going to be dangerous for all road users.

Is speed still manually enforced in the UK?

That's... quaint.

Yea, the police would have zero problems identifying the non EV's breaking the speed limit. They already do the exact same thing (as do static speed cameras) via the ANPR system to detect commercial vehicles breaking the specific speed limits that apply to that class of vehicle.

If you drive past a police car these days, speeding or not, it's most likely read and checked you reg plate for insurance etc. It's all automated, plod just sits there waiting for the system to tell them who their next customer is, like an Uber driver

[TheDeuce]

otolith said:

This is a country where the inclusion of registration year on the number plate drives a significant proportion of the population to change cars when they don't need to.

The tipping point will happen when British snobbery decides that ICE = lower class person.

I've honestly never met anyone who has changed their car because the reg number makes it obvious it's few years old. I've met loads of people that want a new car every few years for the sake of always having a new car, in warranty... But they would do that even if the number plate didn't reveal the cars age.

I actually think it's a thing that works the other way around, it's more likely that someone saving £££ by buying a cheaper used car will then put a p-plate on it to disguise it's age!

But whatever the mechanics of the numberplate factor, I think you're probably right. Once a certain % of the cars on the road are electric, many of those looking to buy a new/nearly new car will start to feel they might look a bit old hat (or plain poor ) if they get anything other than an electric car themselves. I don't wish to be sexist but I think women are more likely to feel urge to follow the apparent trend than men actually, based solely on my female friends desire to have certain types of car in the past as trends have shifted. I suspect it's down to them not actually caring enough to deep dive into what sort of car is 'best', so quicker and simpler to just follow the same path as they see others seem to be doing.

They ALL drive an SUV now, regardless of having kids or not - that's a trend they all got swept up by years ago!!

[TheDeuce]

richhead said:

I think alot of people are like my brother, he recently bought a new car, second hand but only a few years old, he was telling me about it, its a AMG, he said, goes like fk, but when i asked him what size engine it had he didnt know.
I dont think people care what powers their car, just what works for them.
same way i dont care about my fridge.
Electric cars are ok if you can charge it at home, more of a problem if you cant, those that it works for mostly already have one.
Take me for instance, i would never have one as where i live i couldnt charge it.
If i had somewhere to charge at home i probably would. The government banning them wont change that, i will just have to have an older car that i can fill up at a petrol station, no government legislation can change that.

Definitely not the case that 'all those that can charge at home already have one', not even close!


As for your car future, give it ten years and you'll very likely be able to charge 'at home' in some form and for reasonable cost. It might not be literally on your doorstep, but extremely close. Of course there will be no suggestion of it happening in most areas until a hell of a lot more people have EV's to begin with.

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

richhead said:

dont forget they cost considerably more than ice cars to buy new.

Do they though?

VW ID3, 170hp, starts at 30k
VG Golf, 150hp, starts at 28k

BMW i4 GC, 280hp , starts at 51k
BMW 4 GC, 180hp, starts at 46k

Dacia Spring, 65hp, starts at 16k
Dacia Sandero, 90hp, starts at 14k

Seems like a lot of this would be offset by equipment and running costs? How are they still considerably more? Am I missing something?

Indeed. I actually had an 4 series GC ahead of my current i4 GC. The i4 has over 300hp more, double the torque, and costs at least £2000 less a year to 'fuel'. So... it's cheaper Or at least, the same price near as damn it, I'm not going to bother comparing insurance and servicing costs etc. Let's be honest, I'd need to compare to the M4 if I was going to choose the closest model and the running cost difference if I did that would be catastrophic.

[TheDeuce]

richhead said:

ZesPak said:

Do they though?

VW ID3, 170hp, starts at 30k
VG Golf, 150hp, starts at 28k

BMW i4 GC, 280hp , starts at 51k
BMW 4 GC, 180hp, starts at 46k

Dacia Spring, 65hp, starts at 16k
Dacia Sandero, 90hp, starts at 14k

Seems like a lot of this would be offset by equipment and running costs? How are they still considerably more? Am I missing something?

so every car you have quoted the electric one costs more, yes i think you are missing something

Not including running costs - and cars are bought to be used...

Of the cars listed above the EV's are all cheaper, in reality. You have a point if you're only talking about purchase price, but that would only be of use to morons. I'm not being rude when I say that, it would genuinely be moronic to save a few thousand quid buying a car and then spend more running that car than you saved. It would be a poor financial decision and you would be poorer as a result.

[TheDeuce]

SWoll said:

TheDeuce said:

Not including running costs - and cars are bought to be used...

Of the cars listed above the EV's are all cheaper, in reality. You have a point if you're only talking about purchase price, but that would only be of use to morons. I'm not being rude when I say that, it would genuinely be moronic to save a few thousand quid buying a car and then spend more running that car than you saved. It would be a poor financial decision and you would be poorer as a result.

But by far the biggest running cost for any new car is depreciation, which is where the argument falls down?

Not really. Perhaps if judged Vs official rrp but nobody should be paying that. Official rrp tends to be inflated for many EV's in the UK.

Lease costs are the simplest comparator of the actual cost and depreciation of such equivalent ICE/EV cars because they're based on the cars actual purchase price and actual expected depreciation.

[TheDeuce]

Kawasicki said:

I’ve said this going back years, as soon as EVs are way cheaper than ICE vehicles, pretty much everyone will be extolling their virtues.

Money rules.

It seems like that might not be far off now the Chinese are doing their bit to reset people's expectation of how much EV's should cost.

Also EV's are going to get cheaper for all manufacturers once they're the main focus of their production, not a side line trying to exist alongside a full range of ICE cars.

[TheDeuce]

Ankh87 said:

SWoll said:

Then maybe they'll take pleasure in the quieter and far more relaxed driving experience of an EV drivetrain rather than the performance?

I've yet to drive a normal everyday car that isn't massively improved by being an EV. It's cars like that where they make the most sense IME.

That's arguable though. An EV is no more easier than driving any other automatic ICE car. You can say an EV is quieter but when you have the stereo on, do you actually even notice the engine noise? I don't and I drive a lot of miles.

As for the actually stop and go, driving as a normal person then you don't really notice at all. What you do notice is overtaking as it is much quicker due to the instant torque. Otherwise I can say that my partner does not notice any difference driving an auto ICE to an EV.

The only real benefit is charging up at home, which if you do not have that option, then isn't really an improvement.

I'm all for EVs and will be getting one soon but for 99% of other people who drive an ICE and especially an auto ICE, there isn't much difference for those who drive like a normal person. That's my opinion and in-law who does minimal miles a year to use the car to and from the shops. He hasn't noticed any difference as he rarely goes about 40 mph.

What exactly is your point...? If you don't care about power or noise or smoothness or pre-heating etc then fine, as you say you can live without these things. But if the car is still cheaper overall then that's all irrelevant anyway

Because you're still saving money! And time, assuming home charging.

[TheDeuce]

JD said:

SWoll said:

My wife on the other hand won't even consider a non EV for daily duties now as is of the opinion the difference in the drivetrain is like.night and dsy. And thats coming from driving numerous.large capacity and pretty refined ICE cars with well regarded auto boxes.

Matches my experience almost exactly.

Same with Mrs Deuce. We recently had to get a bump on the EV (her fault..) sorted and they could only give us a petrol loan car. She wasn't impressed.

We're going to Malta in a couple of weeks and she even asked about hiring an EV there, but the standard of driving is so poor in Malta that I've had to insist we hire a cheapo and already scratched/smashed old car

[TheDeuce]

bergclimber34 said:

it depends totally on the way things have moved on, I very much doubt I will own an EV within the next 20 years.

At the moment the repair and secondhand market are fluctuating too much to warrant it,m and as others say I want to buy a car outright, not on tick, I do sporadic long journeys and that is too much faff, I am not sitting about in the worst of all places a service station charging, sorry not for me.

So far it is the preserve of the masses with drives and middle income, and two cars, not exclusively and I do not see that changing much in the next 20 years for the lower paid and those without the ease of home charging or driveways. And some will never buy one. n principle.

China will take over the car market eventually in my opinion, that will either force existing makes to cheapen up (as at the moment in my mind they are cashing in as are most consumer based sellers of anything post Covid), or they will buy out existing firms.

Well it's your decision if you'd rather spend more time filling up an ICE car in petrol stations than very occasionally charging an EV at a service station when you have lunch. If you like petrol stations more, and want to visit them more often, you should stick with ICE.

You're probably right about the Chinese influence.

You've depressed me somewhat by looking forward 20 years into your future and deciding today that nothing much will change regards income or where you live. Life should be an adventure where you dream of more (whatever 'more' means to you), not plan for the same on the assumption you can't do something about it!