Prior Convictions: Solving Lotus
Much-needed investment is finally set to arrive, but what should Hethel do with the money?
One point five BILLION pounds. What, exactly, would you do with it? Well, yes, I'd probably send a few postcards from my private island race track too, but what would you do with it if you were the boss of Lotus?
Because, apparently, that's the money that Geely - set to become majority shareholder of Lotus, as it is of Volvo and the London Taxi Company, while it's biggest single shareholder of Daimler - is prepared to drop on the Norfolk-based sports car company.
Sounds like a lot of money. Is a lot of money. Until you remember that Porsche's revenue is £25bn a year, it turns out 250,000 cars a year and employs 30,000 people. £1.5bn puts Lotus on the path. But is merely the start. So what do you do? Develop some cars, presumably. A new Elise, certainly. An SUV, inevitably. But beyond that?
Here, for better or worse, is my take, and if it's one that presumably shows why I am not the CEO of a car company, and you wish to tell me so, then in advance: none taken.
Anyway, job one: create a new architecture. A modular passenger cell, probably aluminium, perhaps part or all composite, with some strength shared down its middle and not just all at the sides. Yes, all at the sills is a superior engineering solution which allows cars to be stiffer and lighter, but also means occupants sit too close to each other and you can't get in and out easily if you're infirm or wearing a skirt. A four-cylinder engine can be mounted on a subframe behind the passenger cell transversely or, in the case of five or more cylinders, longitudinally.
I wonder whether it'd be worth trying to engineer this cell so that different front and rear subframes would allow a longitudinal engine mounted at the front, presto, giving you a new Elise (mid-engined, from £30,000) and a new Elan (front-engined, from £50,000) on the same platform. But there is probably a reason - scuttle height, impact structure - why nobody else has yet tried this.
I'd build these in the Midlands, where Lotus is mooting not just a new factory, but also design centre. "This is just like what we have done with the London Taxi Company: engineer in Britain, design in Britain and built in Britain. We see no reason to move fifty years of combined experience to China; let them do what they do best, in Britain," says Geely boss Li Shufu. Presumably it is easier to attract engineers to the Midlands, where there is already a vast swell of vehicle engineers, than to Norfolk, a place I love, but where there isn't.
Then there are the SUVs. Probably plural. Chinese built, Volvo-based. These cars, inevitably, will not be Lotuses in the truest sense. Each should be among the lightest cars in its class, but what matters more than slavishly making sure one's cars are as light and bare as is humanly possible, is that you make cars people want to buy. Porsche realised that when it made the Cayenne. Lamborghini realises it with the Urus. There are, according to one chief engineer I recently spoke to, some 400 million people in China who now count as 'middle class', which means they can afford to run a BMW 5-Series. A Lotus SUV gives them a reason not to.
So this is three (maybe four) lines already, which is two (three, perhaps four) too few. Remember the wild Danny Bahar plan? Lotus is in a place where this doesn't look ambitious enough. Aston Martin's second century plan - seven models, one replaced every year when the cycle starts again, is plausible. ("It isn't rocket science", says Aston boss Andy Palmer.)
So Elise (lightweight sports), Elan (lightish GT), medium-SUV and large SUV are supplemented by a new Esprit (mid-engined, aimed somewhere between the Porsche 911 and McLaren Sports Series), which is the model that also goes racing. And, finally, a super GT. Engine in the front, cell extended to include +2 or four seats if needs be, perhaps even a shooting brake/break/whatever rear end. Built by hand in Norfolk, forever Lotus's home, where it has decent (if some dated) facilities, excellent roads around it and a valuable test track, and is therefore a rather good place for vehicle development and motorsport.
What's that? Six. More if you squint a bit on body styles. Replace one every year, and grow, with the odd banzai special - 3-Eleven, 340R, you know the drill, also Norfolk made - thrown in for fun.
Engines? Tricky. Volvo presumably, for the smaller models, because some electrification is already in place. It'd come attached to Volvo's canbus and infotainment.
But an Esprit/other supercar would need multiple cylinders, wouldn't it? At the size Lotus wants to be ("a leading global luxury brand," says Li) I'm not sure how it convinces established manufacturers to sell it one. Perhaps - though engines are not exactly cheap to design - it needs its own V8. Or perhaps we'll accept that electrification and sound augmentation, like with the BMW i8, will circumvent the issue.
Either way, with Geely at the helm, if Lotus follows the path set by Volvo, expect to hear not a great deal in the short term, and then a model blitz in a few years' time.
Regarding the Engines option, Lotus has a great relationship with Toyota so surely they can access the Lexus range of V8s ?
Lotus needs to retain its current customer base - Elise and Exige and Evora (Evora Targa or convertible), updated platforms without any more price escalation.
Then work on new markets and new customers - that means SUV and sporty 4 door & 5 door. My favorite idea is the Lotus Carlton type makeover on all the cars in Volvo's range!
When I was reading that clutches were failing in less than 30,000 miles and the cost would be $8,000, it was enough to scare me away.
Clutches that are properly driven should last significantly longer.
In essence, more durability and a more reasonable cost of ownership.
Continuing to use Toyota engines when they have the whole Geely portfolio to draw from would be crazy anyway. If the next generation of Lotus cars have an internal combustion engine at all, I'm pretty sure it'll be one developed within the Geely family.
I'll almost certainly never buy another Lotus simply because I can't see them ever producing anything that I'd enjoy more than my current car.
While it might be basically an evolution of the old Elan, mazda have gotten very good at making it both well and cheaply. Lotus do not have anything like the volume required to compete at this level.
What Lotus really need to be doing is taking the fight to Ferrari, Mclaren etc, small volume high price cars that can pay for their own development. This is why we have seen the last CEO steadily push the prices up finally resulting in a profitable company. (woo!).
The SUV seems like a no-brainer to bring in to re-establish lotus and increase revenue.
The Evora was always supposed to develop into the Espirit but unfortunately funds got in the way so we ended up with the 400 and later the GT430 both lovely cars but not what could have been.
I think the saloon is a challenge, really you are aiming squarely at the M3/4/5 market and that's going to be much more difficult. Alfa seem to have done it so there is a chance but I think it will be the one that is furthest from what Lotus currently do.
When I was reading that clutches were failing in less than 30,000 miles and the cost would be $8,000, it was enough to scare me away.
Clutches that are properly driven should last significantly longer.
In essence, more durability and a more reasonable cost of ownership.
My 2011 Evora S in 17 months and 9k miles has cost me tyres, £800 for two services and £500 to replace a plastic engine cover that cracked (purely cosmetic).
Still on original clutch - that was factored into the purchase price but as it happens seems to be in rude health (car is now on 43k miles) and that's with a car that's been upgraded with the Komo-tec kit to 430/345.
I'm sure there are cars whose clutches have failed sooner, but just wanted to provide a counterpoint. If running costs are a concern I think that's one of the strongest arguments to buy an Evora - Toyota underpinnings make it a pretty strong bet. My costs have been lower than I've expected and certainly lower than the equivalent ///M or Porsche, let along the junior Fez or AM that an Evora can conceivably be compared with.
Toyota may have been happy to trade engines for engineering consulting with a tiny company in Hethel.
They may have been OK with continuing their deal with a tiny division of Proton.
They may not be that interested in long term partnership with the owner and part owner of several of their actual competitors.
Reality is that Lotus cars in the future will almost certainly use engines from Geely's other brands, most likely Volvo even if just to save inventory costs in parts warehouses around the world.
I also expect that part of why Geely took the Polestar brand from being the "tuned Volvo" label to a new separate company was so they could move the Lotus brand to both the stand-alone car company and the "tuned Volvo" line with something like "Volvo by Lotus" for the tuned models.
The Elise saved Lotus, it would be great if they could retain something akin to the Alpine, but it’s already been said it’s not being replaced.
We are not going to see a new Elise for £30K again - ever
Topping that off, Lotus selling the Elise at a low price is NOT their traditional price point. Certainly not the price point that existed during Colin Chapman's days running Lotus.
If you adjust for inflation and look at competing models at similar price points Lotus cars have almost always been very expensive which is how they used what was essentially racing level technology in their street cars.
Looking at the 2nd Generation (and perhaps the peak of the Chapman era):
- A Europa (the cheap car of the second generation lineup) was 50% more than the MGB or TR-6 and priced more like the Porsche 914.
- An Elan Sprint was the same price as the base Porsche 911T.
- An Elan +2 S130 cost as much as a Jaguar E-Type or the top Porsche 911S.
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